Accuracy
Image-Seeking Intent Prediction for Cross-Device Product Search
Hendriksen, Mariya, Vakulenko, Svitlana, Massiah, Jordan, Kazai, Gabriella, Yilmaz, Emine
Large Language Models (LLMs) are transforming personalized search, recommendations, and customer interaction in e-commerce. Customers increasingly shop across multiple devices, from voice-only assistants to multimodal displays, each offering different input and output capabilities. A proactive suggestion to switch devices can greatly improve the user experience, but it must be offered with high precision to avoid unnecessary friction. We address the challenge of predicting when a query requires visual augmentation and a cross-device switch to improve product discovery. We introduce Image-Seeking Intent Prediction, a novel task for LLM-driven e-commerce assistants that anticipates when a spoken product query should proactively trigger a visual on a screen-enabled device. Using large-scale production data from a multi-device retail assistant, including 900K voice queries, associated product retrievals, and behavioral signals such as image carousel engagement, we train IRP (Image Request Predictor), a model that leverages user input query and corresponding retrieved product metadata to anticipate visual intent. Our experiments show that combining query semantics with product data, particularly when improved through lightweight summarization, consistently improves prediction accuracy. Incorporating a differentiable precision-oriented loss further reduces false positives. These results highlight the potential of LLMs to power intelligent, cross-device shopping assistants that anticipate and adapt to user needs, enabling more seamless and personalized e-commerce experiences.
Do Large Language Models (LLMs) Understand Chronology?
Wongchamcharoen, Pattaraphon Kenny, Glasserman, Paul
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in finance and economics, where prompt-based attempts against look-ahead bias implicitly assume that models understand chronology. We test this fundamental question with a series of chronological ordering tasks with increasing complexities over facts the model already knows from pre-training. Our tasks cover (1) chronological ordering, (2) conditional sorting (filter, then order), and (3) anachronism detection. We evaluate GPT-4.1, Claude-3.7 Sonnet, with and without Extended Thinking (ET), and GPT-5 across multiple reasoning-effort settings. Across models, Exact match rate drops sharply as sequences lengthen even while rank correlations stay high as LLMs largely preserve local order but struggle to maintain a single globally consistent timeline. In conditional sorting, most failures stem from the filtering step rather than the ordering step, but GPT-5 and Claude-3.7 Sonnet with Extended Thinking outshine normal models significantly. Lastly, anachronism detection is found to be the easiest task for the LLMs but performance still declines with increasingly overlapping timelines or entities. Overall, our main contribution is showing that allocating explicit reasoning budget helps with chronological ordering with GPT-5 at medium/high reasoning effort achieving flawless ordering at all lengths and perfect conditional sorting (both self-filtered and given-subset), whereas low/minimal effort degrades with longer lists, mirroring earlier models. Our findings delineate limits of current LLMs on chronological tasks, providing insights into task complexity, and demonstrate scenarios in which reasoning helps. These patterns are important for the real-time application of LLMs in finance. We release all code and evaluation templates to support full reproducibility.
MF-Speech: Achieving Fine-Grained and Compositional Control in Speech Generation via Factor Disentanglement
Yu, Xinyue, Fang, Youqing, Wu, Pingyu, Ye, Guoyang, Zhou, Wenbo, Zhang, Weiming, Xiao, Song
Generating expressive and controllable human speech is one of the core goals of generative artificial intelligence, but its progress has long been constrained by two fundamental challenges: the deep entanglement of speech factors and the coarse granularity of existing control mechanisms. To overcome these challenges, we have proposed a novel framework called MF-Speech, which consists of two core components: MF-SpeechEncoder and MF-SpeechGenerator. MF-SpeechEncoder acts as a factor purifier, adopting a multi-objective optimization strategy to decompose the original speech signal into highly pure and independent representations of content, timbre, and emotion. Subsequently, MF-SpeechGenerator functions as a conductor, achieving precise, composable and fine-grained control over these factors through dynamic fusion and Hierarchical Style Adaptive Normalization (HSAN). Experiments demonstrate that in the highly challenging multi-factor compositional speech generation task, MF-Speech significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art methods, achieving a lower word error rate (WER=4.67%), superior style control (SECS=0.5685, Corr=0.68), and the highest subjective evaluation scores(nMOS=3.96, sMOS_emotion=3.86, sMOS_style=3.78). Furthermore, the learned discrete factors exhibit strong transferability, demonstrating their significant potential as a general-purpose speech representation.
WildfireGenome: Interpretable Machine Learning Reveals Local Drivers of Wildfire Risk and Their Cross-County Variation
Current wildfire risk assessments rely on coarse hazard maps and opaque machine learning models that optimize regional accuracy while sacrificing interpretability at the decision scale. WildfireGenome addresses these gaps through three components: (1) fusion of seven federal wildfire indicators into a sign-aligned, PCA-based composite risk label at H3 Level-8 resolution; (2) Random Forest classification of local wildfire risk; and (3) SHAP and ICE/PDP analyses to expose county-specific nonlinear driver relationships. Across seven ecologically diverse U.S. counties, models achieve accuracies of 0.755-0.878 and Quadratic Weighted Kappa up to 0.951, with principal components explaining 87-94% of indicator variance. Transfer tests show reliable performance between ecologically similar regions but collapse across dissimilar contexts. Explanations consistently highlight needleleaf forest cover and elevation as dominant drivers, with risk rising sharply at 30-40% needleleaf coverage. WildfireGenome advances wildfire risk assessment from regional prediction to interpretable, decision-scale analytics that guide vegetation management, zoning, and infrastructure planning.
From Global to Local Correlation: Geometric Decomposition of Statistical Inference
Understanding feature-outcome associations in high-dimensional data remains challenging when relationships vary across subpopulations, yet standard methods assuming global associations miss context-dependent patterns, reducing statistical power and interpretability. We develop a geometric decomposition framework offering two strategies for partitioning inference problems into regional analyses on data-derived Riemannian graphs. Gradient flow decomposition uses path-monotonicity-validated discrete Morse theory to partition samples into gradient flow cells where outcomes exhibit monotonic behavior. Co-monotonicity decomposition utilizes vertex-level coefficients that provide context-dependent versions of the classical Pearson correlation: these coefficients measure edge-based directional concordance between outcome and features, or between feature pairs, defining embeddings of samples into association space. These embeddings induce Riemannian k-NN graphs on which biclustering identifies co-monotonicity cells (coherent regions) and feature modules. This extends naturally to multi-modal integration across multiple feature sets. Both strategies apply independently or jointly, with Bayesian posterior sampling providing credible intervals.