Building reliable machine learning systems requires that we correctly understand their level of confidence. Calibration focuses on measuring the degree of accuracy in a model's confidence and most research in calibration focuses on techniques to improve an empirical estimate of calibration error, ECE_bin. Using simulation, we show that ECE_bin can systematically underestimate or overestimate the true calibration error depending on the nature of model miscalibration, the size of the evaluation data set, and the number of bins. Critically, ECE_bin is more strongly biased for perfectly calibrated models. We propose a simple alternative calibration error metric, ECE_sweep, in which the number of bins is chosen to be as large as possible while preserving monotonicity in the calibration function. Evaluating our measure on distributions fit to neural network confidence scores on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet, we show that ECE_sweep produces a less biased estimator of calibration error and therefore should be used by any researcher wishing to evaluate the calibration of models trained on similar datasets.

Analysis of water and environmental data is an important aspect of many intelligent water and environmental system applications where inference from such analysis plays a significant role in decision making. Quite often these data that are collected through sensible sensors can be anomalous due to different reasons such as systems breakdown, malfunctioning of sensor detectors, and more. Regardless of their root causes, such data severely affect the results of the subsequent analysis. This paper demonstrates data cleaning and preparation for time-series data and further proposes cost-sensitive machine learning algorithms as a solution to detect anomalous data points in time-series data. The following models: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines have been modified to support the cost-sensitive learning which penalizes misclassified samples thereby minimizing the total misclassification cost. Our results showed that Random Forest outperformed the rest of the models at predicting the positive class (i.e anomalies). Applying predictive model improvement techniques like data oversampling seems to provide little or no improvement to the Random Forest model. Interestingly, with recursive feature elimination, we achieved a better model performance thereby reducing the dimensions in the data. Finally, with Influxdb and Kapacitor the data was ingested and streamed to generate new data points to further evaluate the model performance on unseen data, this will allow for early recognition of undesirable changes in the drinking water quality and will enable the water supply companies to rectify on a timely basis whatever undesirable changes abound.

It's easy to do bad things with Facebook data. From targeting ads for bizarrely specific T-shirts to manipulating an electorate, the questionable purposes to which the social media behemoth can be put are numerous. But there are also some people out there trying to use Facebook for good--or, at least, to improve the diagnosis of mental illness. On December 3, a group of researchers reported that they had managed to predict psychiatric diagnoses with Facebook data--using messages sent up to 18 months before a user received an official diagnosis. The team worked with 223 volunteers, who all gave the researchers access to their personal Facebook messages.

When formulated as an unsupervised learning problem, anomaly detection often requires a model to learn the distribution of normal data. Previous works apply Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to anomaly detection tasks and show good performances from these models. Motivated by the observation that GAN ensembles often outperform single GANs in generation tasks, we propose to construct GAN ensembles for anomaly detection. In the proposed method, a group of generators and a group of discriminators are trained together, so every generator gets feedback from multiple discriminators, and vice versa. Compared to a single GAN, a GAN ensemble can better model the distribution of normal data and thus better detect anomalies. Our theoretical analysis of GANs and GAN ensembles explains the role of a GAN discriminator in anomaly detection. In the empirical study, we evaluate ensembles constructed from four types of base models, and the results show that these ensembles clearly outperform single models in a series of tasks of anomaly detection.

We present a machine learning framework and a new test bed for data mining from the Slurm Workload Manager for high-performance computing (HPC) clusters. The focus was to find a method for selecting features to support decisions: helping users decide whether to resubmit failed jobs with boosted CPU and memory allocations or migrate them to a computing cloud. This task was cast as both supervised classification and regression learning, specifically, sequential problem solving suitable for reinforcement learning. Selecting relevant features can improve training accuracy, reduce training time, and produce a more comprehensible model, with an intelligent system that can explain predictions and inferences. We present a supervised learning model trained on a Simple Linux Utility for Resource Management (Slurm) data set of HPC jobs using three different techniques for selecting features: linear regression, lasso, and ridge regression. Our data set represented both HPC jobs that failed and those that succeeded, so our model was reliable, less likely to overfit, and generalizable. Our model achieved an R^2 of 95\% with 99\% accuracy. We identified five predictors for both CPU and memory properties.

In model serving, having one fixed model during the entire often life-long inference process is usually detrimental to model performance, as data distribution evolves over time, resulting in lack of reliability of the model trained on historical data. It is important to detect changes and retrain the model in time. The existing methods generally have three weaknesses: 1) using only classification error rate as signal, 2) assuming ground truth labels are immediately available after features from samples are received and 3) unable to decide what data to use to retrain the model when change occurs. We address the first problem by utilizing six different signals to capture a wide range of characteristics of data, and we address the second problem by allowing lag of labels, where labels of corresponding features are received after a lag in time. For the third problem, our proposed method automatically decides what data to use to retrain based on the signals. Extensive experiments on structured and unstructured data for different type of data changes establish that our method consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by a large margin.

Supervised learning models are one of the most fundamental classes of models. Viewing supervised learning from a probabilistic perspective, the set of training data to which the model is fitted is usually assumed to follow a stationary distribution. However, this stationarity assumption is often violated in a phenomenon called concept drift, which refers to changes over time in the predictive relationship between covariates $\mathbf{X}$ and a response variable $Y$ and can render trained models suboptimal or obsolete. We develop a comprehensive and computationally efficient framework for detecting, monitoring, and diagnosing concept drift. Specifically, we monitor the Fisher score vector, defined as the gradient of the log-likelihood for the fitted model, using a form of multivariate exponentially weighted moving average, which monitors for general changes in the mean of a random vector. In spite of the substantial performance advantages that we demonstrate over popular error-based methods, a score-based approach has not been previously considered for concept drift monitoring. Advantages of the proposed score-based framework include applicability to any parametric model, more powerful detection of changes as shown in theory and experiments, and inherent diagnostic capabilities for helping to identify the nature of the changes.

Reliably quantifying the confidence of deep neural classifiers is a challenging yet fundamental requirement for deploying such models in safety-critical applications. In this paper, we introduce a novel target criterion for model confidence, namely the true class probability (TCP). We show that TCP offers better properties for confidence estimation than standard maximum class probability (MCP). Since the true class is by essence unknown at test time, we propose to learn TCP criterion from data with an auxiliary model, introducing a specific learning scheme adapted to this context. We evaluate our approach on the task of failure prediction and of self-training with pseudo-labels for domain adaptation, which both necessitate effective confidence estimates. Extensive experiments are conducted for validating the relevance of the proposed approach in each task. We study various network architectures and experiment with small and large datasets for image classification and semantic segmentation. In every tested benchmark, our approach outperforms strong baselines.

Fraudsters are getting smarter and have more access to information than ever before. Old methods of authentication -- such as passwords, PINs or even bank account numbers -- can easily be obtained by fraudsters on the dark web. To outsmart bad actors and keep customers' information safe, financial organizations should consider how tools like AI can minimize opportunities for fraud and add an extra layer of protection into their security systems. Fighting fraud has always been a key challenge in the finance industry -- especially as fraudsters get more advanced in their approaches. A 2019 survey revealed that more than 60% of banks and other financial institutions saw the volume of fraudulent activity increase from the year before.

The field of machine learning can broadly be categorised into supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning. Supervised learning uses previous examples with known outputs to determine an appropriate mathematical function to solve a classification or a regression problem. This post focusses on ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) curve that is widely used in the machine learning community to assess the performance of a classification algorithm. This post will help you intuitively understand what an ROC curve is and help you implement it in both R and Python. This article is divided into four parts, each dealing with an objective stated above.