Accuracy
Distribution-free calibration guarantees for histogram binning without sample splitting
Gupta, Chirag, Ramdas, Aaditya K.
In classification, the goal is to learn a model that uses observed feature measurements to make a class prediction on the categorical outcome. However, for safety-critical areas such as medicine and finance, a single class prediction might be insufficient and reliable measures of confidence or certainty may be desired. Such uncertainty quantification is often provided by predictors that produce not just a class label, but a probability distribution over the labels. If the predicted probability distribution is consistent with observed empirical frequencies of labels, the predictor is said to be calibrated [Dawid, 1982]. In this paper we study the problem of calibration for binary classification; let X and Y " t0, 1u denote the feature and label spaces. We focus on the recalibration or post-hoc calibration setting, a standard statistical setting where the goal is to recalibrate existing ('pre-learnt') classifiers that are powerful and (statistically) efficient for classification accuracy, but do not satisfy calibration properties out-of-the-box. This setup is popular for recalibrating pre-trained deep nets. For example, Guo et al. [2017, Figure 4] demonstrated that a pre-learnt ResNet is initially miscalibrated, but can be effectively post-hoc calibrated. In the case of binary classification, the pre-learnt model can be any arbitrary function that provides a classification'score' g: X Ñ r0, 1s.
Wide-AdGraph: Detecting Ad Trackers with a Wide Dependency Chain Graph
Kargaran, Amir Hossein, Akhondzadeh, Mohammad Sadegh, Heidarpour, Mohammad Reza, Manshaei, Mohammad Hossein, Salamatian, Kave, Sattary, Masoud Nejad
Websites use third-party ads and tracking services to deliver targeted ads and collect information about users that visit them. These services put users' privacy at risk, and that is why users' demand for blocking these services is growing. Most of the blocking solutions rely on crowd-sourced filter lists manually maintained by a large community of users. In this work, we seek to simplify the update of these filter lists by combining different websites through a large-scale graph connecting all resource requests made over a large set of sites. The features of this graph are extracted and used to train a machine learning algorithm with the aim of detecting ads and tracking resources. As our approach combines different information sources, it is more robust toward evasion techniques that use obfuscation or changing the usage patterns. We evaluate our work over the Alexa top-10K websites and find its accuracy to be 96.1% biased and 90.9% unbiased with high precision and recall. It can also block new ads and tracking services, which would necessitate being blocked by further crowd-sourced existing filter lists. Moreover, the approach followed in this paper sheds light on the ecosystem of third-party tracking and advertising.
Word-level Human Interpretable Scoring Mechanism for Novel Text Detection Using Tsetlin Machines
Bhattarai, Bimal, Granmo, Ole-Christoffer, Jiao, Lei
Recent research in novelty detection focuses mainly on document-level classification, employing deep neural networks (DNN). However, the black-box nature of DNNs makes it difficult to extract an exact explanation of why a document is considered novel. In addition, dealing with novelty at the word-level is crucial to provide a more fine-grained analysis than what is available at the document level. In this work, we propose a Tsetlin machine (TM)-based architecture for scoring individual words according to their contribution to novelty. Our approach encodes a description of the novel documents using the linguistic patterns captured by TM clauses. We then adopt this description to measure how much a word contributes to making documents novel. Our experimental results demonstrate how our approach breaks down novelty into interpretable phrases, successfully measuring novelty.
Model Evaluation Techniques
Machine Learning is a popular topic in Information Technology in the present day. Machine Learning allows our computer to gain insight from data and experience just as a human being would. In Machine Learning, programmers teach the computer how to use its past experiences with different entities to perform better in future scenarios. Machine Learning involves constructing mathematical models to help us understand the data at hand. Once these models have been fitted to previously seen data, they can be used to predict newly observed data.
Click-Through Rate Prediction Using Graph Neural Networks and Online Learning
Rajabi, Farzaneh, He, Jack Siyuan
Recommendation systems have been extensively studied by many literature in the past and are ubiquitous in online advertisement, shopping industry/e-commerce, query suggestions in search engines, and friend recommendation in social networks. Moreover, restaurant/music/product/movie/news/app recommendations are only a few of the applications of a recommender system. A small percent improvement on the CTR prediction accuracy has been mentioned to add millions of dollars of revenue to the advertisement industry. Click-Through-Rate (CTR) prediction is a special version of recommender system in which the goal is predicting whether or not a user is going to click on a recommended item. A content-based recommendation approach takes into account the past history of the user's behavior, i.e. the recommended products and the users reaction to them. So, a personalized model that recommends the right item to the right user at the right time is the key to building such a model. On the other hand, the so-called collaborative filtering approach incorporates the click history of the users who are very similar to a particular user, thereby helping the recommender to come up with a more confident prediction for that particular user by leveraging the wider knowledge of users who share their taste in a connected network of users. In this project, we are interested in building a CTR predictor using Graph Neural Networks complemented by an online learning algorithm that models such dynamic interactions. By framing the problem as a binary classification task, we have evaluated this system both on the offline models (GNN, Deep Factorization Machines) with test-AUC of 0.7417 and on the online learning model with test-AUC of 0.7585 using a sub-sampled version of Criteo public dataset consisting of 10,000 data points.
The Challenges and Opportunities of Human-Centered AI for Trustworthy Robots and Autonomous Systems
He, Hongmei, Gray, John, Cangelosi, Angelo, Meng, Qinggang, McGinnity, T. Martin, Mehnen, Jörn
The trustworthiness of Robots and Autonomous Systems (RAS) has gained a prominent position on many research agendas towards fully autonomous systems. This research systematically explores, for the first time, the key facets of human-centered AI (HAI) for trustworthy RAS. In this article, five key properties of a trustworthy RAS initially have been identified. RAS must be (i) safe in any uncertain and dynamic surrounding environments; (ii) secure, thus protecting itself from any cyber-threats; (iii) healthy with fault tolerance; (iv) trusted and easy to use to allow effective human-machine interaction (HMI), and (v) compliant with the law and ethical expectations. Then, the challenges in implementing trustworthy autonomous system are analytically reviewed, in respects of the five key properties, and the roles of AI technologies have been explored to ensure the trustiness of RAS with respects to safety, security, health and HMI, while reflecting the requirements of ethics in the design of RAS. While applications of RAS have mainly focused on performance and productivity, the risks posed by advanced AI in RAS have not received sufficient scientific attention. Hence, a new acceptance model of RAS is provided, as a framework for requirements to human-centered AI and for implementing trustworthy RAS by design. This approach promotes human-level intelligence to augment human's capacity. while focusing on contributions to humanity.
Accelerating Entrepreneurial Decision-Making Through Hybrid Intelligence
AI - Artificial Intelligence AGI - Artificial General Intelligence ANN - Artificial Neural Network ANOVA - Analysis of Variance ANT - Actor Network Theory API - Application Programming Interface APX - Amsterdam Power Exchange AVE - Average Variance Extracted BU - Business Unit CART - Classification and Regression Tree CBMV - Crowd-based Business Model Validation CR - Composite Reliability CT - Computed Tomography CVC - Corporate Venture Capital DR - Design Requirement DP - Design Principle DSR - Design Science Research DSS - Decision Support System EEX - European Energy Exchange FsQCA - Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis GUI - Graphical User Interface HI-DSS - Hybrid Intelligence Decision Support System HIT - Human Intelligence Task IoT - Internet of Things IS - Information System IT - Information Technology MCC - Matthews Correlation Coefficient ML - Machine Learning OCT - Opportunity Creation Theory OGEMA 2.0 - Open Gateway Energy Management 2.0 OS - Operating System R&D - Research & Development RE - Renewable Energies RQ - Research Question SVM - Support Vector Machine SSD - Solid-State Drive SDK - Software Development Kit TCP/IP - Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol TCT - Transaction Cost Theory UI - User Interface VaR - Value at Risk VC - Venture Capital VPP - Virtual Power Plant Chapter I
Topological Uncertainty: Monitoring trained neural networks through persistence of activation graphs
Lacombe, Théo, Ike, Yuichi, Carriere, Mathieu, Chazal, Frédéric, Glisse, Marc, Umeda, Yuhei
Although neural networks are capable of reaching astonishing performances on a wide variety of contexts, properly training networks on complicated tasks requires expertise and can be expensive from a computational perspective. In industrial applications, data coming from an open-world setting might widely differ from the benchmark datasets on which a network was trained. Being able to monitor the presence of such variations without retraining the network is of crucial importance. In this article, we develop a method to monitor trained neural networks based on the topological properties of their activation graphs. To each new observation, we assign a Topological Uncertainty, a score that aims to assess the reliability of the predictions by investigating the whole network instead of its final layer only, as typically done by practitioners. Our approach entirely works at a post-training level and does not require any assumption on the network architecture, optimization scheme, nor the use of data augmentation or auxiliary datasets; and can be faithfully applied on a large range of network architectures and data types. We showcase experimentally the potential of Topological Uncertainty in the context of trained network selection, Out-Of-Distribution detection, and shift-detection, both on synthetic and real datasets of images and graphs.
Finding the unicorn: Predicting early stage startup success through a hybrid intelligence method
Dellermann, Dominik, Lipusch, Nikolaus, Ebel, Philipp, Popp, Karl Michael, Leimeister, Jan Marco
Artificial intelligence is an emerging topic and will soon be able to perform decisions better than humans. In more complex and creative contexts such as innovation, however, the question remains whether machines are superior to humans. Machines fail in two kinds of situations: processing and interpreting soft information (information that cannot be quantified) and making predictions in unknowable risk situations of extreme uncertainty. In such situations, the machine does not have representative information for a certain outcome. Thereby, humans are still the gold standard for assessing soft signals and make use of intuition. To predict the success of startups, we, thus, combine the complementary capabilities of humans and machines in a Hybrid Intelligence method. To reach our aim, we follow a design science research approach to develop a Hybrid Intelligence method that combines the strength of both machine and collective intelligence to demonstrate its utility for predictions under extreme uncertainty.
Building 10 Classifier Models in Machine Learning + Notebook
In the last tutorial, we completed the Data Pre-Processing step. We saw preprocessing techniques applied in transformation and variable selection, dimensionality reduction, and sampling for machine learning throughout this previous tutorial. Now we can move on to the next steps within the Data Science process, where we'll apply the rest of the model building process with various classification algorithms to understand what it is and how to use machine learning with python language. In the next moment, we will discuss the Regression algorithms. We will not go into detail about the algorithms. The purpose here will be to understand the detailed process of building the Machine Learning model, machine learning, model evaluation, and prediction scans. See The Jupyter Notebook for the concepts we'll cover on building machine learning models and my LinkedIn profile for other Data Science articles and tutorials. The metrics chosen to evaluate model performance will influence how performance is measured and compared to models created with other algorithms. We need to find a metric to measure performance between models solidly and coherently, a metric comparable to the models analyzed. Let's use the same algorithm, but with different metrics, and so compare the results.