Taxi-out time is an indicator of departure efficiency and is often the early signal of large holding and diversion events for airports that have constrained surface space. This is one of the real-time performance metrics that is of great interest to air traffic managers and flight dispatchers. For a busy airport that has limited tarmac space like LaGuardia Airport (LGA), an increasing average taxi-out time under a deteriorating visibility condition could soon lead to surface gridlock that would cause significant delays to both arrivals and departures. Thus, research is needed to develop an early alert or prediction of long taxi-out times to enable early delay mitigation actions. The problem of predicting taxi-out times has received considerable treatment in the aviation literature. Most research exploring the domain of taxi time prediction has focused on predicting taxi-out times for individual aircraft. Inaccurate taxi-out times can lead to a variety of National Airspace System (NAS) inefficiencies, such as a reduction in predictability for downstream Traffic Flow Management (TFM) applications and excess fuel consumption after push back from the gate. By better predicting aircraft-specific taxi-out times, informed updates can be made to the flight schedule to improve predictability and more efficiently use available NAS resources (e.g., capacity). Although our focus is on predicting average taxi-out time, it's worth reviewing the literature on aircraft-specific taxi-out time predictions for historical context.

Title: Advancing COVID-19 Diagnosis with Privacy-Preserving Collaboration in Artificial Intelligence One sentence summary: An efficient and effective privacy-preserving AI framework is proposed for CT-based COVID-19 diagnosis, based on 9,573 CT scans of 3,336 patients, from 23 hospitals in China and the UK. Abstract Artificial intelligence (AI) provides a promising substitution for streamlining COVID-19 diagnoses. However, concerns surrounding security and trustworthiness impede the collection of large-scale representative medical data, posing a considerable challenge for training a well-generalised model in clinical practices. To address this, we launch the Unified CT-COVID AI Diagnostic Initiative (UCADI), where the AI model can be distributedly trained and independently executed at each host institution under a federated learning framework (FL) without data sharing. Here we show that our FL model outperformed all the local models by a large yield (test sensitivity /specificity in China: 0.973/0.951, in the UK: 0.730/0.942), We further evaluated the model on the hold-out (collected from another two hospitals leaving out the FL) and heterogeneous (acquired with contrast materials) data, provided visual explanations for decisions made by the model, and analysed the trade-offs between the model performance and the communication costs in the federated training process. Our study is based on 9,573 chest computed tomography scans (CTs) from 3,336 patients collected from 23 hospitals located in China and the UK. Collectively, our work advanced the prospects of utilising federated learning for privacy-preserving AI in digital health. MAIN TEXT Introduction As the gold standard for identifying COVID-19 carriers, reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is the primary diagnostic modality to detect viral nucleotide in specimens from cases with suspected infection. It has been reported that coronavirus carriers present certain radiological features in chest CTs, including ground-glass opacity, interlobular septal thickening, and consolidation, which can be exploited to identify COVID-19 cases.

Machine learning and artificial intelligence methods are often referred to as "black boxes" when compared with traditional regression-based approaches. However, both traditional and machine learning methods are concerned with modeling the joint distribution between endogenous (target) and exogenous (input) variables. Where linear models describe the fitted relationship between the target and input variables via the slope of that relationship (coefficient estimates), the same fitted relationship can be described rigorously for any machine learning model by first-differencing the partial dependence functions. Bootstrapping these first-differenced functionals provides standard errors and confidence intervals for the estimated relationships. We show that this approach replicates the point estimates of OLS coefficients and demonstrate how this generalizes to marginal relationships in machine learning and artificial intelligence models. We further discuss the relationship of partial dependence functions to Shapley value decompositions and explore how they can be used to further explain model outputs.

This paper considers the learning of Boolean rules in either disjunctive normal form (DNF, OR-of-ANDs, equivalent to decision rule sets) or conjunctive normal form (CNF, AND-of-ORs) as an interpretable model for classification. An integer program is formulated to optimally trade classification accuracy for rule simplicity. We also consider the fairness setting and extend the formulation to include explicit constraints on two different measures of classification parity: equality of opportunity and equalized odds. Column generation (CG) is used to efficiently search over an exponential number of candidate clauses (conjunctions or disjunctions) without the need for heuristic rule mining. This approach also bounds the gap between the selected rule set and the best possible rule set on the training data. To handle large datasets, we propose an approximate CG algorithm using randomization. Compared to three recently proposed alternatives, the CG algorithm dominates the accuracy-simplicity trade-off in 8 out of 16 datasets. When maximized for accuracy, CG is competitive with rule learners designed for this purpose, sometimes finding significantly simpler solutions that are no less accurate. Compared to other fair and interpretable classifiers, our method is able to find rule sets that meet stricter notions of fairness with a modest trade-off in accuracy.

The four essential chambers of one's heart that lie in the thoracic cavity are crucial for one's survival, yet ironically prove to be the most vulnerable. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) also commonly referred to as heart disease has steadily grown to the leading cause of death amongst humans over the past few decades. Taking this concerning statistic into consideration, it is evident that patients suffering from CVDs need a quick and correct diagnosis in order to facilitate early treatment to lessen the chances of fatality. This paper attempts to utilize the data provided to train classification models such as Logistic Regression, K Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, Gaussian Naive Bayes, Random Forest, and Multi-Layer Perceptron (Artificial Neural Network) and eventually using a soft voting ensemble technique in order to attain as many correct diagnoses as possible.

Purpose: Mitral valve repair is a complex minimally invasive surgery of the heart valve. In this context, suture detection from endoscopic images is a highly relevant task that provides quantitative information to analyse suturing patterns, assess prosthetic configurations and produce augmented reality visualisations. Facial or anatomical landmark detection tasks typically contain a fixed number of landmarks, and use regression or fixed heatmap-based approaches to localize the landmarks. However in endoscopy, there are a varying number of sutures in every image, and the sutures may occur at any location in the annulus, as they are not semantically unique. Method: In this work, we formulate the suture detection task as a multi-instance deep heatmap regression problem, to identify entry and exit points of sutures. We extend our previous work, and introduce the novel use of a 2D Gaussian layer followed by a differentiable 2D spatial Soft-Argmax layer to function as a local non-maximum suppression. Results: We present extensive experiments with multiple heatmap distribution functions and two variants of the proposed model. In the intra-operative domain, Variant 1 showed a mean F1 of +0.0422 over the baseline. Similarly, in the simulator domain, Variant 1 showed a mean F1 of +0.0865 over the baseline. Conclusion: The proposed model shows an improvement over the baseline in the intra-operative and the simulator domains. The data is made publicly available within the scope of the MICCAI AdaptOR2021 Challenge https://adaptor2021.github.io/, and the code at https://github.com/Cardio-AI/suture-detection-pytorch/. DOI:10.1007/s11548-021-02523-w. The link to the open access article can be found here: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11548-021-02523-w

Predictive models for medical outcomes hold great promise for enhancing clinical decision-making. These models are trained on rich patient data such as clinical notes, aggregating many patient signals into an outcome prediction. However, AI-based clinical models have typically been developed in isolation from the prominent paradigm of Evidence Based Medicine (EBM), in which medical decisions are based on explicit evidence from existing literature. In this work, we introduce techniques to help bridge this gap between EBM and AI-based clinical models, and show that these methods can improve predictive accuracy. We propose a novel system that automatically retrieves patient-specific literature based on intensive care (ICU) patient information, aggregates relevant papers and fuses them with internal admission notes to form outcome predictions. Our model is able to substantially boost predictive accuracy on three challenging tasks in comparison to strong recent baselines; for in-hospital mortality, we are able to boost top-10% precision by a large margin of over 25%.

Modern cloud computing systems contain hundreds to thousands of computing and storage servers. Such a scale, combined with ever-growing system complexity, is causing a key challenge to failure and resource management for dependable cloud computing. Autonomic failure detection is a crucial technique for understanding emergent, cloud-wide phenomena and self-managing cloud resources for system-level dependability assurance. To detect failures, we need to monitor the cloud execution and collect runtime performance data. These data are usually unlabeled, and thus a prior failure history is not always available in production clouds. In this paper, we present a \emph{self-evolving anomaly detection} (SEAD) framework for cloud dependability assurance. Our framework self-evolves by recursively exploring newly verified anomaly records and continuously updating the anomaly detector online. As a distinct advantage of our framework, cloud system administrators only need to check a small number of detected anomalies, and their decisions are leveraged to update the detector. Thus, the detector evolves following the upgrade of system hardware, update of the software stack, and change of user workloads. Moreover, we design two types of detectors, one for general anomaly detection and the other for type-specific anomaly detection. With the help of self-evolving techniques, our detectors can achieve 88.94\% in sensitivity and 94.60\% in specificity on average, which makes them suitable for real-world deployment.

Normalizing flows are prominent deep generative models that provide tractable probability distributions and efficient density estimation. However, they are well known to fail while detecting Out-of-Distribution (OOD) inputs as they directly encode the local features of the input representations in their latent space. In this paper, we solve this overconfidence issue of normalizing flows by demonstrating that flows, if extended by an attention mechanism, can reliably detect outliers including adversarial attacks. Our approach does not require outlier data for training and we showcase the efficiency of our method for OOD detection by reporting state-of-the-art performance in diverse experimental settings.

Despite AI's superhuman performance in a variety of domains, humans are often unwilling to adopt AI systems. The lack of interpretability inherent in many modern AI techniques is believed to be hurting their adoption, as users may not trust systems whose decision processes they do not understand. We investigate this proposition with a novel experiment in which we use an interactive prediction task to analyze the impact of interpretability and outcome feedback on trust in AI and on human performance in AI-assisted prediction tasks. We find that interpretability led to no robust improvements in trust, while outcome feedback had a significantly greater and more reliable effect. However, both factors had modest effects on participants' task performance. Our findings suggest that (1) factors receiving significant attention, such as interpretability, may be less effective at increasing trust than factors like outcome feedback, and (2) augmenting human performance via AI systems may not be a simple matter of increasing trust in AI, as increased trust is not always associated with equally sizable improvements in performance. These findings invite the research community to focus not only on methods for generating interpretations but also on techniques for ensuring that interpretations impact trust and performance in practice.