A growing number of universities worldwide use various forms of online and blended learning as part of their academic curricula. Furthermore, the recent changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have led to a drastic increase in importance and ubiquity of online education. Among the major advantages of e-learning is not only improving students' learning experience and widening their educational prospects, but also an opportunity to gain insights into students' learning processes with learning analytics. This study contributes to the topic of improving and understanding e-learning processes in the following ways. First, we demonstrate that accurate predictive models can be built based on sequential patterns derived from students' behavioral data, which are able to identify underperforming students early in the course. Second, we investigate the specificity-generalizability trade-off in building such predictive models by investigating whether predictive models should be built for every course individually based on course-specific sequential patterns, or across several courses based on more general behavioral patterns. Finally, we present a methodology for capturing temporal aspects in behavioral data and analyze its influence on the predictive performance of the models. The results of our improved sequence classification technique are capable to predict student performance with high levels of accuracy, reaching 90 percent for course-specific models.

An outstanding image-text retrieval model depends on high-quality labeled data. While the builders of existing image-text retrieval datasets strive to ensure that the caption matches the linked image, they cannot prevent a caption from fitting other images. We observe that such a many-to-many matching phenomenon is quite common in the widely-used retrieval datasets, where one caption can describe up to 178 images. These large matching-lost data not only confuse the model in training but also weaken the evaluation accuracy. Inspired by visual and textual entailment tasks, we propose a multi-modal entailment classifier to determine whether a sentence is entailed by an image plus its linked captions. Subsequently, we revise the image-text retrieval datasets by adding these entailed captions as additional weak labels of an image and develop a universal variable learning rate strategy to teach a retrieval model to distinguish the entailed captions from other negative samples. In experiments, we manually annotate an entailment-corrected image-text retrieval dataset for evaluation. The results demonstrate that the proposed entailment classifier achieves about 78% accuracy and consistently improves the performance of image-text retrieval baselines.

Predictive Coding Networks (PCNs) aim to learn a generative model of the world. Given observations, this generative model can then be inverted to infer the causes of those observations. However, when training PCNs, a noticeable pathology is often observed where inference accuracy peaks and then declines with further training. This cannot be explained by overfitting since both training and test accuracy decrease simultaneously. Here we provide a thorough investigation of this phenomenon and show that it is caused by an imbalance between the speeds at which the various layers of the PCN converge. We demonstrate that this can be prevented by regularising the weight matrices at each layer: by restricting the relative size of matrix singular values, we allow the weight matrix to change but restrict the overall impact which a layer can have on its neighbours. We also demonstrate that a similar effect can be achieved through a more biologically plausible and simple scheme of just capping the weights.

Over the past few years, graph representation learning (GRL) has been a powerful strategy for analyzing graph-structured data. Recently, GRL methods have shown promising results by adopting self-supervised learning methods developed for learning representations of images. Despite their success, existing GRL methods tend to overlook an inherent distinction between images and graphs, i.e., images are assumed to be independently and identically distributed, whereas graphs exhibit relational information among data instances, i.e., nodes. To fully benefit from the relational information inherent in the graph-structured data, we propose a novel GRL method, called RGRL, that learns from the relational information generated from the graph itself. RGRL learns node representations such that the relationship among nodes is invariant to augmentations, i.e., augmentation-invariant relationship, which allows the node representations to vary as long as the relationship among the nodes is preserved. By considering the relationship among nodes in both global and local perspectives, RGRL overcomes limitations of previous contrastive and non-contrastive methods, and achieves the best of both worlds. Extensive experiments on fourteen benchmark datasets over various downstream tasks demonstrate the superiority of RGRL over state-of-the-art baselines. The source code for RGRL is available at https://github.com/Namkyeong/RGRL.

Cadences are complex structures that have been driving music from the beginning of contrapuntal polyphony until today. Detecting such structures is vital for numerous MIR tasks such as musicological analysis, key detection, or music segmentation. However, automatic cadence detection remains challenging mainly because it involves a combination of high-level musical elements like harmony, voice leading, and rhythm. In this work, we present a graph representation of symbolic scores as an intermediate means to solve the cadence detection task. We approach cadence detection as an imbalanced node classification problem using a Graph Convolutional Network. We obtain results that are roughly on par with the state of the art, and we present a model capable of making predictions at multiple levels of granularity, from individual notes to beats, thanks to the fine-grained, note-by-note representation. Moreover, our experiments suggest that graph convolution can learn non-local features that assist in cadence detection, freeing us from the need of having to devise specialized features that encode non-local context. We argue that this general approach to modeling musical scores and classification tasks has a number of potential advantages, beyond the specific recognition task presented here.

Purpose: Artificial intelligence (AI) solutions for medical diagnosis require thorough evaluation to demonstrate that performance is maintained for all patient sub-groups and to ensure that proposed improvements in care will be delivered equitably. This study evaluates the robustness of an AI solution for the diagnosis of normal chest X-rays (CXRs) by comparing performance across multiple patient and environmental subgroups, as well as comparing AI errors with those made by human experts. Methods: A total of 4,060 CXRs were sampled to represent a diverse dataset of NHS patients and care settings. Ground-truth labels were assigned by a 3-radiologist panel. AI performance was evaluated against assigned labels and sub-groups analysis was conducted against patient age and sex, as well as CXR view, modality, device manufacturer and hospital site. Results: The AI solution was able to remove 18.5% of the dataset by classification as High Confidence Normal (HCN). This was associated with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.0%, compared to 89.1% for diagnosis of normal scans by radiologists. In all AI false negative (FN) cases, a radiologist was found to have also made the same error when compared to final ground-truth labels. Subgroup analysis showed no statistically significant variations in AI performance, whilst reduced normal classification was observed in data from some hospital sites. Conclusion: We show the AI solution could provide meaningful workload savings by diagnosis of 18.5% of scans as HCN with a superior NPV to human readers. The AI solution is shown to perform well across patient subgroups and error cases were shown to be subjective or subtle in nature.

Machine learning models are vulnerable to membership inference attacks in which an adversary aims to predict whether or not a particular sample was contained in the target model's training dataset. Existing attack methods have commonly exploited the output information (mostly, losses) solely from the given target model. As a result, in practical scenarios where both the member and non-member samples yield similarly small losses, these methods are naturally unable to differentiate between them. To address this limitation, in this paper, we propose a new attack method, called \system, which can exploit the membership information from the whole training process of the target model for improving the attack performance. To mount the attack in the common black-box setting, we leverage knowledge distillation, and represent the membership information by the losses evaluated on a sequence of intermediate models at different distillation epochs, namely \emph{distilled loss trajectory}, together with the loss from the given target model. Experimental results over different datasets and model architectures demonstrate the great advantage of our attack in terms of different metrics. For example, on CINIC-10, our attack achieves at least 6$\times$ higher true-positive rate at a low false-positive rate of 0.1\% than existing methods. Further analysis demonstrates the general effectiveness of our attack in more strict scenarios.

With the increasing use of Machine Learning (ML) in critical autonomous systems, runtime monitors have been developed to detect prediction errors and keep the system in a safe state during operations. Monitors have been proposed for different applications involving diverse perception tasks and ML models, and specific evaluation procedures and metrics are used for different contexts. This paper introduces three unified safety-oriented metrics, representing the safety benefits of the monitor (Safety Gain), the remaining safety gaps after using it (Residual Hazard), and its negative impact on the system's performance (Availability Cost). To compute these metrics, one requires to define two return functions, representing how a given ML prediction will impact expected future rewards and hazards. Three use-cases (classification, drone landing, and autonomous driving) are used to demonstrate how metrics from the literature can be expressed in terms of the proposed metrics. Experimental results on these examples show how different evaluation choices impact the perceived performance of a monitor. As our formalism requires us to formulate explicit safety assumptions, it allows us to ensure that the evaluation conducted matches the high-level system requirements.

Objectives: The present study evaluated the impact of a commercially available explainable AI algorithm in augmenting the ability of clinicians to identify lung cancer on chest X-rays (CXR). Design: This retrospective study evaluated the performance of 11 clinicians for detecting lung cancer from chest radiographs, with and without assistance from a commercially available AI algorithm (red dot, Behold.ai) that predicts suspected lung cancer from CXRs. Clinician performance was evaluated against clinically confirmed diagnoses. Setting: The study analysed anonymised patient data from an NHS hospital; the dataset consisted of 400 chest radiographs from adult patients (18 years and above) who had a CXR performed in 2020, with corresponding clinical text reports. Participants: A panel of readers consisting of 11 clinicians (consultant radiologists, radiologist trainees and reporting radiographers) participated in this study. Main outcome measures: Overall accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and precision for detecting lung cancer on CXRs by clinicians, with and without AI input. Agreement rates between clinicians and performance standard deviation were also evaluated, with and without AI input. Results: The use of the AI algorithm by clinicians led to an improved overall performance for lung tumour detection, achieving an overall increase of 17.4% of lung cancers being identified on CXRs which would have otherwise been missed, an overall increase in detection of smaller tumours, a 24% and 13% increased detection of stage 1 and stage 2 lung cancers respectively, and standardisation of clinician performance. Conclusions: This study showed great promise in the clinical utility of AI algorithms in improving early lung cancer diagnosis and promoting health equity through overall improvement in reader performances, without impacting downstream imaging resources.

Prediction of individual's race and ethnicity plays an important role in social science and public health research. Examples include studies of racial disparity in health and voting. Recently, Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG), which uses Bayes' rule to combine information from Census surname files with the geocoding of an individual's residence, has emerged as a leading methodology for this prediction task. Unfortunately, BISG suffers from two Census data problems that contribute to unsatisfactory predictive performance for minorities. First, the decennial Census often contains zero counts for minority racial groups in the Census blocks where some members of those groups reside. Second, because the Census surname files only include frequent names, many surnames -- especially those of minorities -- are missing from the list. To address the zero counts problem, we introduce a fully Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (fBISG) methodology that accounts for potential measurement error in Census counts by extending the naive Bayesian inference of the BISG methodology to full posterior inference. To address the missing surname problem, we supplement the Census surname data with additional data on last, first, and middle names taken from the voter files of six Southern states where self-reported race is available. Our empirical validation shows that the fBISG methodology and name supplements significantly improve the accuracy of race imputation across all racial groups, and especially for Asians. The proposed methodology, together with additional name data, is available via the open-source software WRU.