Accuracy
Instagram's age-verification identified a moustachioed adult as over 16 – but how did it go with a 13-year-old?
In November Meta began notifying under-16 Instagram and Facebook users their accounts will be deactivated as part of Australia's social media ban for children. In November Meta began notifying under-16 Instagram and Facebook users their accounts will be deactivated as part of Australia's social media ban for children. Instagram's age-verification identified a moustachioed adult as over 16 - but how did it go with a 13-year-old? Meta platform allows users under 16 in Australia to change their date of birth - but only after clearing a'video selfie' or providing government ID Instagram's process for determining whether a user is over 16 is relatively quick and painless if you're clearly an adult - but how does it work if a 13-year-old tries to change their account's date of birth to make them appear grown up? Meta in November began notifying Instagram and Facebook users whose date of birth is set as under 16 - or who the platform understands to be under 16 - that their accounts will be deactivated as part of Australia's social media ban for children.
Accelerated Execution of Bayesian Neural Networks using a Single Probabilistic Forward Pass and Code Generation
Klein, Bernhard, Selker, Falk, Borras, Hendrik, Steger, Sophie, Pernkopf, Franz, Fröning, Holger
Machine learning models perform well across domains such as diagnostics, weather forecasting, NLP, and autonomous driving, but their limited uncertainty handling restricts use in safety-critical settings. Traditional neural networks often fail to detect out-of-domain (OOD) data and may output confident yet incorrect predictions. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) address this by providing probabilistic estimates, but incur high computational cost because predictions require sampling weight distributions and multiple forward passes. The Probabilistic Forward Pass (PFP) offers a highly efficient approximation to Stochastic Variational Inference (SVI) by assuming Gaussian-distributed weights and activations, enabling fully analytic uncertainty propagation and replacing sampling with a single deterministic forward pass. We present an end-to-end pipeline for training, compiling, optimizing, and deploying PFP-based BNNs on embedded ARM CPUs. Using the TVM deep learning compiler, we implement a dedicated library of Gaussian-propagating operators for multilayer perceptrons and convolutional neural networks, combined with manual and automated tuning strategies. Ablation studies show that PFP consistently outperforms SVI in computational efficiency, achieving speedups of up to 4200x for small mini-batches. PFP-BNNs match SVI-BNNs on Dirty-MNIST in accuracy, uncertainty estimation, and OOD detection while greatly reducing compute cost. These results highlight the potential of combining Bayesian approximations with code generation to enable efficient BNN deployment on resource-constrained systems.
Asymptotic Theory and Phase Transitions for Variable Importance in Quantile Regression Forests
Nakamura, Tomoshige, Shiraishi, Hiroshi
Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) are widely used for non-parametric conditional quantile estimation, yet statistical inference for variable importance measures remains challenging due to the non-smoothness of the loss function and the complex bias-variance trade-off. In this paper, we develop a asymptotic theory for variable importance defined as the difference in pinball loss risks. We first establish the asymptotic normality of the QRF estimator by handling the non-differentiable pinball loss via Knight's identity. Second, we uncover a "phase transition" phenomenon governed by the subsampling rate $β$ (where $s \asymp n^β$). We prove that in the bias-dominated regime ($β\ge 1/2$), which corresponds to large subsample sizes typically favored in practice to maximize predictive accuracy, standard inference breaks down as the estimator converges to a deterministic bias constant rather than a zero-mean normal distribution. Finally, we derive the explicit analytic form of this asymptotic bias and discuss the theoretical feasibility of restoring valid inference via analytic bias correction. Our results highlight a fundamental trade-off between predictive performance and inferential validity, providing a theoretical foundation for understanding the intrinsic limitations of random forest inference in high-dimensional settings.
What Is the Optimal Ranking Score Between Precision and Recall? We Can Always Find It and It Is Rarely $F_1$
Piérard, Sébastien, Deliège, Adrien, Van Droogenbroeck, Marc
Ranking methods or models based on their performance is of prime importance but is tricky because performance is fundamentally multidimensional. In the case of classification, precision and recall are scores with probabilistic interpretations that are both important to consider and complementary. The rankings induced by these two scores are often in partial contradiction. In practice, therefore, it is extremely useful to establish a compromise between the two views to obtain a single, global ranking. Over the last fifty years or so,it has been proposed to take a weighted harmonic mean, known as the F-score, F-measure, or $F_β$. Generally speaking, by averaging basic scores, we obtain a score that is intermediate in terms of values. However, there is no guarantee that these scores lead to meaningful rankings and no guarantee that the rankings are good tradeoffs between these base scores. Given the ubiquity of $F_β$ scores in the literature, some clarification is in order. Concretely: (1) We establish that $F_β$-induced rankings are meaningful and define a shortest path between precision- and recall-induced rankings. (2) We frame the problem of finding a tradeoff between two scores as an optimization problem expressed with Kendall rank correlations. We show that $F_1$ and its skew-insensitive version are far from being optimal in that regard. (3) We provide theoretical tools and a closed-form expression to find the optimal value for $β$ for any distribution or set of performances, and we illustrate their use on six case studies.
Automated Statistical and Machine Learning Platform for Biological Research
Lego, Luke Rimmo, Gauthier, Samantha, Baptiste, Denver Jn.
Research increasingly relies on computational methods to analyze experimental data and predict molecular properties. Current approaches often require researchers to use a variety of tools for statistical analysis and machine learning, creating workflow inefficiencies. We present an integrated platform that combines classical statistical methods with Random Forest classification for comprehensive data analysis that can be used in the biological sciences. The platform implements automated hyperparameter optimization, feature importance analysis, and a suite of statistical tests including t tests, ANOVA, and Pearson correlation analysis. Our methodology addresses the gap between traditional statistical software, modern machine learning frameworks and biology, by providing a unified interface accessible to researchers without extensive programming experience. The system achieves this through automatic data preprocessing, categorical encoding, and adaptive model configuration based on dataset characteristics. Initial testing protocols are designed to evaluate classification accuracy across diverse chemical datasets with varying feature distributions. This work demonstrates that integrating statistical rigor with machine learning interpretability can accelerate biological discovery workflows while maintaining methodological soundness. The platform's modular architecture enables future extensions to additional machine learning algorithms and statistical procedures relevant to bioinformatics.
Towards Continuous Intelligence Growth: Self-Training, Continual Learning, and Dual-Scale Memory in SuperIntelliAgent
Lin, Jianzhe, Pan, Zeyu, Zhu, Yun, Song, Ruiqi, Yang, Jining
W e introduce SuperIntelliAgent, an agentic learning framework that couples a trainable small diffusion model (the learner) with a frozen large language model (the verifier), enabling continual intelligence growth through self-supervised interaction. Unlike conventional supervised fine-tuning with annotated data, SuperIntelliAgent learns autonomously in an annotation-free manner: the learner generates candidate outputs, the verifier evaluates them via step-by-step reasoning, and the learner-verifier interaction loop produces chosen/rejected pairs for Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), transforming every input into a pseudo-training signal for continual self-improvement. The framework integrates a dual-scale memory mechanism--short-term, in-context memory that preserves reasoning traces across iterative refinement cycles, and long-term memory that consolidates acquired knowledge into model parameters through on-the-fly fine-tuning. T o enhance optimization, a replay buffer selectively retains samples showing verifiable progress from failed to satisfied conditions and replays them as auxiliary supervision, reinforcing recent learning while bootstrapping adaptive curricula that accelerate intelligence acquisition. Designed to be infrastructure-agnostic, SuperIntelliAgent can be seamlessly integrated into existing agentic frameworks (e.g., autogen, semantic kernel, etc.), while simultaneously transforming ordinary inference cycles into lifelong optimization. W e posit that agentic pairing constitutes the minimal reliable unit of growing intelligence, as paired feedback, augmented with partial-history replay, yields richer learning curricula, tighter preference alignment, and stronger generalization. With extremely few DPO pairs generated automatically by SuperIntelliAgent and used for lightweight fine-tuning, the learner performance improves across all benchmarks.
Identification of Malicious Posts on the Dark Web Using Supervised Machine Learning
Filho, Sebastião Alves de Jesus, Bernardo, Gustavo Di Giovanni, Gabriel, Paulo Henrique Ribeiro, Zarpelão, Bruno Bogaz, Miani, Rodrigo Sanches
Given the constant growth and increasing sophistication of cyberattacks, cybersecurity can no longer rely solely on traditional defense techniques and tools. Proactive detection of cyber threats has become essential to help security teams identify potential risks and implement effective mitigation measures. Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) plays a key role by providing security analysts with evidence-based knowledge about cyber threats. CTI information can be extracted using various techniques and data sources; however, machine learning has proven promising. As for data sources, social networks and online discussion forums are commonly explored. In this study, we apply text mining techniques and machine learning to data collected from Dark Web forums in Brazilian Portuguese to identify malicious posts. Our contributions include the creation of three original datasets, a novel multi-stage labeling process combining indicators of compromise (IoCs), contextual keywords, and manual analysis, and a comprehensive evaluation of text representations and classifiers. To our knowledge, this is the first study to focus specifically on Brazilian Portuguese content in this domain. The best-performing model, using LightGBM and TF-IDF, was able to detect relevant posts with high accuracy. We also applied topic modeling to validate the model's outputs on unlabeled data, confirming its robustness in real-world scenarios.
Evaluating the Clinical Impact of Generative Inpainting on Bone Age Estimation
Matsuoka, Felipe Akio, Farina, Eduardo Moreno J. M., Serpa, Augusto Sarquis, Monteiro, Soraya, Ragazzini, Rodrigo, Abdala, Nitamar, Takahashi, Marcelo Straus, Kitamura, Felipe Campos
Generative foundation models can remove visual artifacts through realistic image inpainting, but their impact on medical AI performance remains uncertain. Pediatric hand radiographs often contain non-anatomical markers, and it is unclear whether inpainting these regions preserves features needed for bone age and gender prediction. To evaluate the clinical reliability of generative model-based inpainting for artifact removal, we used the RSNA Bone Age Challenge dataset, selecting 200 original radiographs and generating 600 inpainted versions with gpt-image-1 using natural language prompts to target non-anatomical artifacts. Downstream performance was assessed with deep learning ensembles for bone age estimation and gender classification, using mean absolute error (MAE) and area under the ROC curve (AUC) as metrics, and pixel intensity distributions to detect structural alterations. Inpainting markedly degraded model performance: bone age MAE increased from 6.26 to 30.11 months, and gender classification AUC decreased from 0.955 to 0.704. Inpainted images displayed pixel-intensity shifts and inconsistencies, indicating structural modifications not corrected by simple calibration. These findings show that, although visually realistic, foundation model-based inpainting can obscure subtle but clinically relevant features and introduce latent bias even when edits are confined to non-diagnostic regions, underscoring the need for rigorous, task-specific validation before integrating such generative tools into clinical AI workflows.
Standard Occupation Classifier -- A Natural Language Processing Approach
Standard Occupational Classifiers (SOC) are systems used to categorize and classify different types of jobs and occupations based on their similarities in terms of job duties, skills, and qualifications. Integrating these facets with Big Data from job advertisement offers the prospect to investigate labour demand that is specific to various occupations. This project investigates the use of recent developments in natural language processing to construct a classifier capable of assigning an occupation code to a given job advertisement. We develop various classifiers for both UK ONS SOC and US O*NET SOC, using different Language Models. We find that an ensemble model, which combines Google BERT and a Neural Network classifier while considering job title, description, and skills, achieved the highest prediction accuracy. Specifically, the ensemble model exhibited a classification accuracy of up to 61% for the lower (or fourth) tier of SOC, and 72% for the third tier of SOC. This model could provide up to date, accurate information on the evolution of the labour market using job advertisements.
The Multiclass Score-Oriented Loss (MultiSOL) on the Simplex
Marchetti, Francesco, Legnaro, Edoardo, Guastavino, Sabrina
In the supervised binary classification setting, score-oriented losses have been introduced with the aim of optimizing a chosen performance metric directly during the training phase, thus avoiding \textit{a posteriori} threshold tuning. To do this, in their construction, the decision threshold is treated as a random variable provided with a certain \textit{a priori} distribution. In this paper, we use a recently introduced multidimensional threshold-based classification framework to extend such score-oriented losses to multiclass classification, defining the Multiclass Score-Oriented Loss (MultiSOL) functions. As also demonstrated by several classification experiments, this proposed family of losses is designed to preserve the main advantages observed in the binary setting, such as the direct optimization of the target metric and the robustness to class imbalance, achieving performance comparable to other state-of-the-art loss functions and providing new insights into the interaction between simplex geometry and score-oriented learning.