Accuracy
Explainable Machine Learning for Breakdown Prediction in High Gradient RF Cavities
Obermair, Christoph, Cartier-Michaud, Thomas, Apollonio, Andrea, Millar, William, Felsberger, Lukas, Fischl, Lorenz, Bovbjerg, Holger Severin, Wollmann, Daniel, Wuensch, Walter, Catalan-Lasheras, Nuria, Boronat, Marรงร , Pernkopf, Franz, Burt, Graeme
The occurrence of vacuum arcs or radio frequency (rf) breakdowns is one of the most prevalent factors limiting the high-gradient performance of normal conducting rf cavities in particle accelerators. In this paper, we search for the existence of previously unrecognized features related to the incidence of rf breakdowns by applying a machine learning strategy to high-gradient cavity data from CERN's test stand for the Compact Linear Collider (CLIC). By interpreting the parameters of the learned models with explainable artificial intelligence (AI), we reverse-engineer physical properties for deriving fast, reliable, and simple rule-based models. Based on 6 months of historical data and dedicated experiments, our models show fractions of data with a high influence on the occurrence of breakdowns. Specifically, it is shown that the field emitted current following an initial breakdown is closely related to the probability of another breakdown occurring shortly thereafter. Results also indicate that the cavity pressure should be monitored with increased temporal resolution in future experiments, to further explore the vacuum activity associated with breakdowns.
Localized Contrastive Learning on Graphs
Zhang, Hengrui, Wu, Qitian, Wang, Yu, Zhang, Shaofeng, Yan, Junchi, Yu, Philip S.
Contrastive learning methods based on InfoNCE loss are popular in node representation learning tasks on graph-structured data. However, its reliance on data augmentation and its quadratic computational complexity might lead to inconsistency and inefficiency problems. To mitigate these limitations, in this paper, we introduce a simple yet effective contrastive model named Localized Graph Contrastive Learning (Local-GCL in short). Local-GCL consists of two key designs: 1) We fabricate the positive examples for each node directly using its first-order neighbors, which frees our method from the reliance on carefully-designed graph augmentations; 2) To improve the efficiency of contrastive learning on graphs, we devise a kernelized contrastive loss, which could be approximately computed in linear time and space complexity with respect to the graph size. We provide theoretical analysis to justify the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed methods. Experiments on various datasets with different scales and properties demonstrate that in spite of its simplicity, Local-GCL achieves quite competitive performance in self-supervised node representation learning tasks on graphs with various scales and properties.
Fallen Angel Bonds Investment and Bankruptcy Predictions Using Manual Models and Automated Machine Learning
Mateika, Harrison, Jia, Juannan, Lillard, Linda, Cronbaugh, Noah, Shin, Will
The primary aim of this research was to find a model that best predicts which fallen angel bonds would either potentially rise up back to investment grade bonds and which ones would fall into bankruptcy. To implement the solution, we thought that the ideal method would be to create an optimal machine learning model that could predict bankruptcies. Among the many machine learning models out there we decided to pick four classification methods: logistic regression, KNN, SVM, and NN. We also utilized an automated methods of Google Cloud's machine learning. The results of our model comparisons showed that the models did not predict bankruptcies very well on the original data set with the exception of Google Cloud's machine learning having a high precision score. However, our over-sampled and feature selection data set did perform very well. This could likely be due to the model being over-fitted to match the narrative of the over-sampled data (as in, it does not accurately predict data outside of this data set quite well). Therefore, we were not able to create a model that we are confident that would predict bankruptcies. However, we were able to find value out of this project in two key ways. The first is that Google Cloud's machine learning model in every metric and in every data set either outperformed or performed on par with the other models. The second is that we found that utilizing feature selection did not reduce predictive power that much. This means that we can reduce the amount of data to collect for future experimentation regarding predicting bankruptcies.
Simulation of Attacker Defender Interaction in a Noisy Security Game
Galinkin, Erick, Pountourakis, Emmanouil, Carter, John, Mancoridis, Spiros
In the cybersecurity setting, defenders are often at the mercy of their detection technologies and subject to the information and experiences that individual analysts have. In order to give defenders an advantage, it is important to understand an attacker's motivation and their likely next best action. As a first step in modeling this behavior, we introduce a security game framework that simulates interplay between attackers and defenders in a noisy environment, focusing on the factors that drive decision making for attackers and defenders in the variants of the game with full knowledge and observability, knowledge of the parameters but no observability of the state (``partial knowledge''), and zero knowledge or observability (``zero knowledge''). We demonstrate the importance of making the right assumptions about attackers, given significant differences in outcomes. Furthermore, there is a measurable trade-off between false-positives and true-positives in terms of attacker outcomes, suggesting that a more false-positive prone environment may be acceptable under conditions where true-positives are also higher.
A probabilistic autoencoder for causal discovery
The paper addresses the problem of finding the causal direction between two associated variables. The proposed solution is to build an autoencoder of their joint distribution and to maximize its estimation capacity relative to both the marginal distributions. It is shown that the resulting two capacities cannot, in general, be equal. This leads to a new criterion for causal discovery: the higher capacity is consistent with the unconstrained choice of a distribution representing the cause while the lower capacity reflects the constraints imposed by the mechanism on the distribution of the effect. Estimation capacity is defined as the ability of the auto-encoder to represent arbitrary datasets. A regularization term forces it to decide which one of the variables to model in a more generic way i.e., while maintaining higher model capacity. The causal direction is revealed by the constraints encountered while encoding the data instead of being measured as a property of the data itself. The idea is implemented and tested using a restricted Boltzmann machine.
Structure of Classifier Boundaries: Case Study for a Naive Bayes Classifier
Karr, Alan F., Bowen, Zac, Porter, Adam A.
Whether based on models, training data or a combination, classifiers place (possibly complex) input data into one of a relatively small number of output categories. In this paper, we study the structure of the boundary--those points for which a neighbor is classified differently--in the context of an input space that is a graph, so that there is a concept of neighboring inputs, The scientific setting is a model-based naive Bayes classifier for DNA reads produced by Next Generation Sequencers. We show that the boundary is both large and complicated in structure. We create a new measure of uncertainty, called Neighbor Similarity, that compares the result for a point to the distribution of results for its neighbors. This measure not only tracks two inherent uncertainty measures for the Bayes classifier, but also can be implemented, at a computational cost, for classifiers without inherent measures of uncertainty.
Better Hit the Nail on the Head than Beat around the Bush: Removing Protected Attributes with a Single Projection
Haghighatkhah, Pantea, Fokkens, Antske, Sommerauer, Pia, Speckmann, Bettina, Verbeek, Kevin
Bias elimination and recent probing studies attempt to remove specific information from embedding spaces. Here it is important to remove as much of the target information as possible, while preserving any other information present. INLP is a popular recent method which removes specific information through iterative nullspace projections. Multiple iterations, however, increase the risk that information other than the target is negatively affected. We introduce two methods that find a single targeted projection: Mean Projection (MP, more efficient) and Tukey Median Projection (TMP, with theoretical guarantees). Our comparison between MP and INLP shows that (1) one MP projection removes linear separability based on the target and (2) MP has less impact on the overall space. Further analysis shows that applying random projections after MP leads to the same overall effects on the embedding space as the multiple projections of INLP. Applying one targeted (MP) projection hence is methodologically cleaner than applying multiple (INLP) projections that introduce random effects.
Unsupervised language models for disease variant prediction
Zhou, Allan, Landolfi, Nicholas C., O'Neill, Daniel C.
There is considerable interest in predicting the pathogenicity of protein variants in human genes. Due to the sparsity of high quality labels, recent approaches turn to \textit{unsupervised} learning, using Multiple Sequence Alignments (MSAs) to train generative models of natural sequence variation within each gene. These generative models then predict variant likelihood as a proxy to evolutionary fitness. In this work we instead combine this evolutionary principle with pretrained protein language models (LMs), which have already shown promising results in predicting protein structure and function. Instead of training separate models per-gene, we find that a single protein LM trained on broad sequence datasets can score pathogenicity for any gene variant zero-shot, without MSAs or finetuning. We call this unsupervised approach \textbf{VELM} (Variant Effect via Language Models), and show that it achieves scoring performance comparable to the state of the art when evaluated on clinically labeled variants of disease-related genes.
MixBoost: Improving the Robustness of Deep Neural Networks by Boosting Data Augmentation
Liu, Zhendong, Jiang, Wenyu, guo, Min, Wang, Chongjun
As more and more artificial intelligence (AI) technologies move from the laboratory to real-world applications, the open-set and robustness challenges brought by data from the real world have received increasing attention. Data augmentation is a widely used method to improve model performance, and some recent works have also confirmed its positive effect on the robustness of AI models. However, most of the existing data augmentation methods are heuristic, lacking the exploration of their internal mechanisms. We apply the explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) method, explore the internal mechanisms of popular data augmentation methods, analyze the relationship between game interactions and some widely used robustness metrics, and propose a new proxy for model robustness in the open-set environment. Based on the analysis of the internal mechanisms, we develop a mask-based boosting method for data augmentation that comprehensively improves several robustness measures of AI models and beats state-of-the-art data augmentation approaches. Experiments show that our method can be widely applied to many popular data augmentation methods. Different from the adversarial training, our boosting method not only significantly improves the robustness of models, but also improves the accuracy of test sets. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/Anonymous_for_submission}.
Semantically-enhanced Topic Recommendation System for Software Projects
Izadi, Maliheh, Nejati, Mahtab, Heydarnoori, Abbas
Software-related platforms have enabled their users to collaboratively label software entities with topics. Tagging software repositories with relevant topics can be exploited for facilitating various downstream tasks. For instance, a correct and complete set of topics assigned to a repository can increase its visibility. Consequently, this improves the outcome of tasks such as browsing, searching, navigation, and organization of repositories. Unfortunately, assigned topics are usually highly noisy, and some repositories do not have well-assigned topics. Thus, there have been efforts on recommending topics for software projects, however, the semantic relationships among these topics have not been exploited so far. We propose two recommender models for tagging software projects that incorporate the semantic relationship among topics. Our approach has two main phases; (1) we first take a collaborative approach to curate a dataset of quality topics specifically for the domain of software engineering and development. We also enrich this data with the semantic relationships among these topics and encapsulate them in a knowledge graph we call SED-KGraph. Then, (2) we build two recommender systems; The first one operates only based on the list of original topics assigned to a repository and the relationships specified in our knowledge graph. The second predictive model, however, assumes there are no topics available for a repository, hence it proceeds to predict the relevant topics based on both textual information of a software project and SED-KGraph. We built SED-KGraph in a crowd-sourced project with 170 contributors from both academia and industry. The experiment results indicate that our solutions outperform baselines that neglect the semantic relationships among topics by at least 25% and 23% in terms of ASR and MAP metrics.