The ability to quickly and accurately identify covariate shift at test time is a critical and often overlooked component of safe machine learning systems deployed in high-risk domains. While methods exist for detecting when predictions should not be made on out-of-distribution test examples, identifying distributional level differences between training and test time can help determine when a model should be removed from the deployment setting and retrained. In this work, we define harmful covariate shift (HCS) as a change in distribution that may weaken the generalization of a predictive model. To detect HCS, we use the discordance between an ensemble of classifiers trained to agree on training data and disagree on test data. We derive a loss function for training this ensemble and show that the disagreement rate and entropy represent powerful discriminative statistics for HCS. Empirically, we demonstrate the ability of our method to detect harmful covariate shift with statistical certainty on a variety of high-dimensional datasets. Across numerous domains and modalities, we show state-of-the-art performance compared to existing methods, particularly when the number of observed test samples is small.

The path planning problems arising in manipulation planning and in task and motion planning settings are typically repetitive: the same manipulator moves in a space that only changes slightly. Despite this potential for reuse of information, few planners fully exploit the available information. To better enable this reuse, we decompose the collision checking into reusable, and non-reusable parts. We then treat the sequences of path planning problems in manipulation planning as a multiquery path planning problem. This allows the usage of planners that actively minimize planning effort over multiple queries, and by doing so, actively reuse previous knowledge. We implement this approach in EIRM* and effort ordered LazyPRM*, and benchmark it on multiple simulated robotic examples. Further, we show that the approach of decomposing collision checks additionally enables the reuse of the gained knowledge over multiple different instances of the same problem, i.e., in a multiquery manipulation planning scenario. The planners using the decomposed collision checking outperform the other planners in initial solution time by up to a factor of two while providing a similar solution quality.

In visual instruction-following dialogue games, players can engage in repair mechanisms in face of an ambiguous or underspecified instruction that cannot be fully mapped to actions in the world. In this work, we annotate Instruction Clarification Requests (iCRs) in CoDraw, an existing dataset of interactions in a multimodal collaborative dialogue game. We show that it contains lexically and semantically diverse iCRs being produced self-motivatedly by players deciding to clarify in order to solve the task successfully. With 8.8k iCRs found in 9.9k dialogues, CoDraw-iCR (v1) is a large spontaneous iCR corpus, making it a valuable resource for data-driven research on clarification in dialogue. We then formalise and provide baseline models for two tasks: Determining when to make an iCR and how to recognise them, in order to investigate to what extent these tasks are learnable from data.

Dynamic diagnosis is desirable when medical tests are costly or time-consuming. In this work, we use reinforcement learning (RL) to find a dynamic policy that selects lab test panels sequentially based on previous observations, ensuring accurate testing at a low cost. Clinical diagnostic data are often highly imbalanced; therefore, we aim to maximize the $F_1$ score instead of the error rate. However, optimizing the non-concave $F_1$ score is not a classic RL problem, thus invalidates standard RL methods. To remedy this issue, we develop a reward shaping approach, leveraging properties of the $F_1$ score and duality of policy optimization, to provably find the set of all Pareto-optimal policies for budget-constrained $F_1$ score maximization. To handle the combinatorially complex state space, we propose a Semi-Model-based Deep Diagnosis Policy Optimization (SM-DDPO) framework that is compatible with end-to-end training and online learning. SM-DDPO is tested on diverse clinical tasks: ferritin abnormality detection, sepsis mortality prediction, and acute kidney injury diagnosis. Experiments with real-world data validate that SM-DDPO trains efficiently and identifies all Pareto-front solutions. Across all tasks, SM-DDPO is able to achieve state-of-the-art diagnosis accuracy (in some cases higher than conventional methods) with up to $85\%$ reduction in testing cost. The code is available at [https://github.com/Zheng321/Deep-Reinforcement-Learning-for-Cost-Effective-Medical-Diagnosis].

Machine learning poses severe privacy concerns as it has been shown that the learned models can reveal sensitive information about their training data. Many works have investigated the effect of widely-adopted data augmentation (DA) and adversarial training (AT) techniques, termed data enhancement in the paper, on the privacy leakage of machine learning models. Such privacy effects are often measured by membership inference attacks (MIAs), which aim to identify whether a particular example belongs to the training set or not. We propose to investigate privacy from a new perspective called memorization. Through the lens of memorization, we find that previously deployed MIAs produce misleading results as they are less likely to identify samples with higher privacy risks as members compared to samples with low privacy risks. To solve this problem, we deploy a recent attack that can capture individual samples' memorization degrees for evaluation. Through extensive experiments, we unveil non-trivial findings about the connections between three essential properties of machine learning models, including privacy, generalization gap, and adversarial robustness. We demonstrate that, unlike existing results, the generalization gap is shown not highly correlated with privacy leakage. Moreover, stronger adversarial robustness does not necessarily imply that the model is more susceptible to privacy attacks.

We develop an efficient machine learning protocol to predict the noise-induced coherence from the nonequilibrium fluctuations of photon exchange statistics in a quantum heat engine. The engine is a four-level quantum system coupled to a unimodal quantum cavity. The nonequilibrium fluctuations correspond to the work done during the photon exchange process between the four-level system and the cavity mode. We specifically evaluate the mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis for a range of engine parameters using a full counting statistical approach combined with a quantum master equation technique. We use these numerically evaluated cumulants as input data to successfully predict the hot bath induced coherence. A supervised machine learning technique based on K-Nearest Neighbor(KNN) is found to work better than a variety of learning models that we tested.

The feature determines the vertical position of the point, and the Shapley value determines the horizontal position. The color of the point represents whether the value of the feature is low or high. Our experiment uses red and blue to represent low or high feature values, respectively. For example, for a feature Age, an older man would be drawn as red or a redder point, whereas a younger would be described as blue or a bluer point. Overlapping points are jittered in the y-axis position. The SHAP summary plot indicates a possible relationship between feature value and the impact on model prediction. However, it does not prove any causal relationship.

Existing methods for open-set action recognition focus on novelty detection that assumes video clips show a single action, which is unrealistic in the real world. We propose a new method for open set action recognition and novelty detection via MUlti-Label Evidential learning (MULE), that goes beyond previous novel action detection methods by addressing the more general problems of single or multiple actors in the same scene, with simultaneous action(s) by any actor. Our Beta Evidential Neural Network estimates multi-action uncertainty with Beta densities based on actor-context-object relation representations. An evidence debiasing constraint is added to the objective function for optimization to reduce the static bias of video representations, which can incorrectly correlate predictions and static cues. We develop a learning algorithm based on a primal-dual average scheme update to optimize the proposed problem. Theoretical analysis of the optimization algorithm demonstrates the convergence of the primal solution sequence and bounds for both the loss function and the debiasing constraint. Uncertainty and belief-based novelty estimation mechanisms are formulated to detect novel actions. Extensive experiments on two real-world video datasets show that our proposed approach achieves promising performance in single/multi-actor, single/multi-action settings.

Predicting the Stock movement attracts much attention from both industry and academia. Despite such significant efforts, the results remain unsatisfactory due to the inherently complicated nature of the stock market driven by factors including supply and demand, the state of the economy, the political climate, and even irrational human behavior. Recently, Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) have been extended for time series data; however, robust methods are primarily for synthetic series generation, which fall short for appropriate stock prediction. This is because existing GANs for stock applications suffer from mode collapse and only consider one-step prediction, thus underutilizing the potential of GAN. Furthermore, merging news and market volatility are neglected in current GANs. To address these issues, we exploit expert domain knowledge in finance and, for the first time, attempt to formulate stock movement prediction into a Wasserstein GAN framework for multi-step prediction. We propose IndexGAN, which includes deliberate designs for the inherent characteristics of the stock market, leverages news context learning to thoroughly investigate textual information and develop an attentive seq2seq learning network that captures the temporal dependency among stock prices, news, and market sentiment. We also utilize the critic to approximate the Wasserstein distance between actual and predicted sequences and develop a rolling strategy for deployment that mitigates noise from the financial market. Extensive experiments are conducted on real-world broad-based indices, demonstrating the superior performance of our architecture over other state-of-the-art baselines, also validating all its contributing components. NTRODUCTION The stock market is an essential component of a broad and intricate financial system, and stock prices reflect the dynamics of economic and financial activities. Predicting future movements of either individual stocks or overall market indices is important to investors and other market players [1], which requires significant efforts but lacks satisfactory results. Conventional approaches vary from fundamental and technical analysis to linear statistical models, such as Momentum Strategies and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), which capture simple short-term patterns from historical prices. With the tremendous power and success in exploring the nonlinear relationship and dealing with big data, machine learning and neural networks are increasingly utilized in stock movement prediction and have shown better results in prediction accuracy over traditional methods [2].

Website fingerprinting attack is an extensively studied technique used in a web browser to analyze traffic patterns and thus infer confidential information about users. Several website fingerprinting attacks based on machine learning and deep learning tend to use the most typical features to achieve a satisfactory performance of attacking rate. However, these attacks suffer from several practical implementation factors, such as a skillfully pre-processing step or a clean dataset. To defend against such attacks, random packet defense (RPD) with a high cost of excessive network overhead is usually applied. In this work, we first propose a practical filter-assisted attack against RPD, which can filter out the injected noises using the statistical characteristics of TCP/IP traffic. Then, we propose a list-assisted defensive mechanism to defend the proposed attack method. To achieve a configurable trade-off between the defense and the network overhead, we further improve the list-based defense by a traffic splitting mechanism, which can combat the mentioned attacks as well as save a considerable amount of network overhead. In the experiments, we collect real-life traffic patterns using three mainstream browsers, i.e., Microsoft Edge, Google Chrome, and Mozilla Firefox, and extensive results conducted on the closed and open-world datasets show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms in terms of defense accuracy and network efficiency.