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One Sample is Enough to Make Conformal Prediction Robust

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

For any black-box model, conformal prediction (CP) returns prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with high adjustable probability. Robust CP (RCP) extends the guarantee to the worst case noise up to a pre-defined magnitude. For RCP, a well-established approach is to use randomized smoothing since it is applicable to any black-box model and provides smaller sets compared to deterministic methods. However, smoothing-based robustness requires many model forward passes per each input which is computationally expensive. We show that conformal prediction attains some robustness even with a single forward pass on a randomly perturbed input. Using any binary certificate we propose a single sample robust CP (RCP1). Our approach returns robust sets with smaller average set size compared to SOTA methods which use many (e.g. 100) passes per input. Our key insight is to certify the conformal procedure itself rather than individual conformity scores. Our approach is agnostic to the task (classification and regression). We further extend our approach to smoothing-based robust conformal risk control.


Evaluating the robustness of adversarial defenses in malware detection systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning is a key tool for Android malware detection, effectively identifying malicious patterns in apps. However, ML-based detectors are vulnerable to evasion attacks, where small, crafted changes bypass detection. Despite progress in adversarial defenses, the lack of comprehensive evaluation frameworks in binary-constrained domains limits understanding of their robustness. We introduce two key contributions. First, Prioritized Binary Rounding, a technique to convert continuous perturbations into binary feature spaces while preserving high attack success and low perturbation size. Second, the sigma-binary attack, a novel adversarial method for binary domains, designed to achieve attack goals with minimal feature changes. Experiments on the Malscan dataset show that sigma-binary outperforms existing attacks and exposes key vulnerabilities in state-of-the-art defenses. Defenses equipped with adversary detectors, such as KDE, DLA, DNN+, and ICNN, exhibit significant brittleness, with attack success rates exceeding 90% using fewer than 10 feature modifications and reaching 100% with just 20. Adversarially trained defenses, including AT-rFGSM-k, AT-MaxMA, improves robustness under small budgets but remains vulnerable to unrestricted perturbations, with attack success rates of 99.45% and 96.62%, respectively. Although PAD-SMA demonstrates strong robustness against state-of-the-art gradient-based adversarial attacks by maintaining an attack success rate below 16.55%, the sigma-binary attack significantly outperforms these methods, achieving a 94.56% success rate under unrestricted perturbations. These findings highlight the critical need for precise method like sigma-binary to expose hidden vulnerabilities in existing defenses and support the development of more resilient malware detection systems.


AI Application in Anti-Money Laundering for Sustainable and Transparent Financial Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Money laundering and financial fraud remain major threats to global financial stability, costing trillions annually and challenging regulatory oversight. This paper reviews how artificial intelligence (AI) applications can modernize Anti-Money Laundering (AML) workflows by improving detection accuracy, lowering false-positive rates, and reducing the operational burden of manual investigations, thereby supporting more sustainable development. It further highlights future research directions including federated learning for privacy-preserving collaboration, fairness-aware and interpretable AI, reinforcement learning for adaptive defenses, and human-in-the-loop visualization systems to ensure that next-generation AML architectures remain transparent, accountable, and robust. In the final part, the paper proposes an AI-driven KYC application that integrates graph-based retrieval-augmented generation (RAG Graph) with generative models to enhance efficiency, transparency, and decision support in KYC processes related to money-laundering detection. Experimental results show that the RAG-Graph architecture delivers high faithfulness and strong answer relevancy across diverse evaluation settings, thereby enhancing the efficiency and transparency of KYC CDD/EDD workflows and contributing to more sustainable, resource-optimized compliance practices.


Morphologically-Informed Tokenizers for Languages with Non-Concatenative Morphology: A case study of Yoloxรณchtil Mixtec ASR

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper investigates the impact of using morphologically-informed tokenizers to aid and streamline the interlinear gloss annotation of an audio corpus of Yoloxรณchitl Mixtec (YM) using a combination of ASR and text-based sequence-to-sequence tools, with the goal of improving efficiency while reducing the workload of a human annotator. We present two novel tokenization schemes that separate words in a nonlinear manner, preserving information about tonal morphology as much as possible. One of these approaches, a Segment and Melody tokenizer, simply extracts the tones without predicting segmentation. The other, a Sequence of Processes tokenizer, predicts segmentation for the words, which could allow an end-to-end ASR system to produce segmented and unsegmented transcriptions in a single pass. We find that these novel tokenizers are competitive with BPE and Unigram models, and the Segment-and-Melody model outperforms traditional tokenizers in terms of word error rate but does not reach the same character error rate. In addition, we analyze tokenizers on morphological and information-theoretic metrics to find predictive correlations with downstream performance. Our results suggest that nonlinear tokenizers designed specifically for the non-concatenative morphology of a language are competitive with conventional BPE and Unigram models for ASR. Further research will be necessary to determine the applicability of these tokenizers in downstream processing tasks.


Do We Really Even Need Data? A Modern Look at Drawing Inference with Predicted Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g., rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from pre-trained algorithms as substitutes for missing or unobserved data. Though appealing for financial and logistical reasons, using standard tools for inference can misrepresent the association between independent variables and the outcome of interest when the true, unobserved outcome is replaced by a predicted value. In this paper, we characterize the statistical challenges inherent to drawing inference with predicted data (IPD) and show that high predictive accuracy does not guarantee valid downstream inference. We show that all such failures reduce to statistical notions of (i) bias, when predictions systematically shift the estimand or distort relationships among variables, and (ii) variance, when uncertainty from the prediction model and the intrinsic variability of the true data are ignored. We then review recent methods for conducting IPD and discuss how this framework is deeply rooted in classical statistical theory. We then comment on some open questions and interesting avenues for future work in this area, and end with some comments on how to use predicted data in scientific studies that is both transparent and statistically principled.


To Err Is Human: Systematic Quantification of Errors in Published AI Papers via LLM Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

How many mistakes do published AI papers contain? Peer-reviewed publications form the foundation upon which new research and knowledge are built. Errors that persist in the literature can propagate unnoticed, creating confusion in follow-up studies and complicating reproducibility. The accelerating pace of research and the increasing demands on the peer-review system make such mistakes harder to detect and avoid. To address this, we developed a Paper Correctness Checker based on GPT-5 to systematically identify mistakes in papers previously published at top AI conferences and journals. Our analysis focuses on objective mistakes-e.g., errors in formulas, derivations, calculations, figures, and tables-that have a clearly verifiable ground truth. We intentionally exclude subjective considerations such as novelty, importance, or writing quality. We find that published papers contain a non-negligible number of objective mistakes and that the average number of mistakes per paper has increased over time-from 3.8 in NeurIPS 2021 to 5.9 in NeurIPS 2025 (55.3% increase); from 4.1 in ICLR 2018 to 5.2 in ICLR 2025; and from 5.0 in TMLR 2022/23 to 5.5 in TMLR 2025. Human experts reviewed 316 potential mistakes identified by the AI Checker and confirmed that 263 were actual mistakes, corresponding to a precision of 83.2%. While most identified issues are relatively minor, correcting them would reduce confusion in the literature and strengthen reproducibility. The AI Checker also surfaced potentially more substantive mistakes that could affect the interpretation of results. Moreover, we show that the AI Checker can propose correct fixes for 75.8% of the identified mistakes. Overall, this study highlights the potential of frontier LLMs to detect and correct objective mistakes in published papers, helping to establish a firmer foundation of knowledge.


Bootstrapping Fuzzers for Compilers of Low-Resource Language Dialects Using Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern extensible compiler frameworks-such as MLIR-enable rapid creation of domain-specific language dialects. This flexibility, however, makes correctness harder to ensure as the same extensibility that accelerates development also complicates maintaining the testing infrastructure. Extensible languages require automated test generation that is both dialect-agnostic (works across dialects without manual adaptation) and dialect-effective (targets dialect-specific features to find bugs). Existing approaches typically sacrifice one of these goals by either requiring manually constructed seed corpora for each dialect, or by failing to be effective. We present a dialect-agnostic and dialect-effective grammar-based and coverage-guided fuzzing approach for extensible compilers that combines two key insights from existing work: (i) the grammars of dialects, which already encode the structural and type constraints, can often be extracted automatically from the dialect specification; and (ii) these grammars can be used in combination with pre-trained large language models to automatically generate representative and diverse seed inputs from the full dialect space without requiring any manual input or training data. These seeds can then be used to bootstrap coverage-guided fuzzers. We built this approach into a tool, Germinator. When evaluated on six MLIR projects spanning 91 dialects, Germinator generated seeds improve line coverage by 10-120% over grammar-based baselines. We compare against grammar-based baselines because they are the only class of existing automatic seed generators that can be applied uniformly across MLIR's heterogeneous dialect ecosystem. Germinator discovers 88 previously unknown bugs (40 confirmed), including 23 in dialects with no prior automated test generators, demonstrating effective and controllable testing of low-resource dialects at scale.


Predicting Price Movements in High-Frequency Financial Data with Spiking Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern high-frequency trading (HFT) environments are characterized by sudden price spikes that present both risk and opportunity, but conventional financial models often fail to capture the required fine temporal structure. Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) offer a biologically inspired framework well-suited to these challenges due to their natural ability to process discrete events and preserve millisecond-scale timing. This work investigates the application of SNNs to high-frequency price-spike forecasting, enhancing performance via robust hyperparameter tuning with Bayesian Optimization (BO). This work converts high-frequency stock data into spike trains and evaluates three architectures: an established unsupervised STDP-trained SNN, a novel SNN with explicit inhibitory competition, and a supervised backpropagation network. BO was driven by a novel objective, Penalized Spike Accuracy (PSA), designed to ensure a network's predicted price spike rate aligns with the empirical rate of price events. Simulated trading demonstrated that models optimized with PSA consistently outperformed their Spike Accuracy (SA)-tuned counterparts and baselines. Specifically, the extended SNN model with PSA achieved the highest cumulative return (76.8%) in simple backtesting, significantly surpassing the supervised alternative (42.54% return). These results validate the potential of spiking networks, when robustly tuned with task-specific objectives, for effective price spike forecasting in HFT.


Beyond Data Filtering: Knowledge Localization for Capability Removal in LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models increasingly possess capabilities that carry dual-use risks. While data filtering has emerged as a pretraining-time mitigation, it faces significant challenges: labeling whether data is harmful is expensive at scale, and given improving sample efficiency with larger models, even small amounts of mislabeled content could give rise to dangerous capabilities. To address risks associated with mislabeled harmful content, prior work proposed Gradient Routing (Cloud et al., 2024) -- a technique that localizes target knowledge into a dedicated subset of model parameters so they can later be removed. We explore an improved variant of Gradient Routing, which we call Selective GradienT Masking (SGTM), with particular focus on evaluating its robustness to label noise. SGTM zero-masks selected gradients such that target domain examples only update their dedicated parameters. We test SGTM's effectiveness in two applications: removing knowledge of one language from a model trained on a bilingual synthetic dataset, and removing biology knowledge from a model trained on English Wikipedia. In both cases SGTM provides better retain/forget trade-off in the presence of labeling errors compared to both data filtering and a previously proposed instantiation of Gradient Routing. Unlike shallow unlearning approaches that can be quickly undone through fine-tuning, SGTM exhibits strong robustness to adversarial fine-tuning, requiring seven times more fine-tuning steps to reach baseline performance on the forget set compared to a finetuning-based unlearning method (RMU). Our results suggest SGTM provides a promising pretraining-time complement to existing safety mitigations, particularly in settings where label noise is unavoidable.


Credal and Interval Deep Evidential Classifications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) presents a pivotal challenge in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), profoundly impacting decision-making, risk assessment and model reliability. In this paper, we introduce Credal and Interval Deep Evidential Classifications (CDEC and IDEC, respectively) as novel approaches to address UQ in classification tasks. CDEC and IDEC leverage a credal set (closed and convex set of probabilities) and an interval of evidential predictive distributions, respectively, allowing us to avoid overfitting to the training data and to systematically assess both epistemic (reducible) and aleatoric (irreducible) uncertainties. When those surpass acceptable thresholds, CDEC and IDEC have the capability to abstain from classification and flag an excess of epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty, as relevant. Conversely, within acceptable uncertainty bounds, CDEC and IDEC provide a collection of labels with robust probabilistic guarantees. CDEC and IDEC are trained using standard backpropagation and a loss function that draws from the theory of evidence. They overcome the shortcomings of previous efforts, and extend the current evidential deep learning literature. Through extensive experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100, together with their natural OoD shifts (F-MNIST/K-MNIST, SVHN/Intel, TinyImageNet), we show that CDEC and IDEC achieve competitive predictive accuracy, state-of-the-art OoD detection under epistemic and total uncertainty, and tight, well-calibrated prediction regions that expand reliably under distribution shift. An ablation over ensemble size further demonstrates that CDEC attains stable uncertainty estimates with only a small ensemble.