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Rapid and Scalable Bayesian AB Testing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AB testing aids business operators with their decision making, and is considered the gold standard method for learning from data to improve digital user experiences. However, there is usually a gap between the requirements of practitioners, and the constraints imposed by the statistical hypothesis testing methodologies commonly used for analysis of AB tests. These include the lack of statistical power in multivariate designs with many factors, correlations between these factors, the need of sequential testing for early stopping, and the inability to pool knowledge from past tests. Here, we propose a solution that applies hierarchical Bayesian estimation to address the above limitations. In comparison to current sequential AB testing methodology, we increase statistical power by exploiting correlations between factors, enabling sequential testing and progressive early stopping, without incurring excessive false positive risk. We also demonstrate how this methodology can be extended to enable the extraction of composite global learnings from past AB tests, to accelerate future tests. We underpin our work with a solid theoretical framework that articulates the value of hierarchical estimation. We demonstrate its utility using both numerical simulations and a large set of real-world AB tests. Together, these results highlight the practical value of our approach for statistical inference in the technology industry.


Efficient and Feasible Robotic Assembly Sequence Planning via Graph Representation Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Automatic Robotic Assembly Sequence Planning (RASP) can significantly improve productivity and resilience in modern manufacturing along with the growing need for greater product customization. One of the main challenges in realizing such automation resides in efficiently finding solutions from a growing number of potential sequences for increasingly complex assemblies. Besides, costly feasibility checks are always required for the robotic system. To address this, we propose a holistic graphical approach including a graph representation called Assembly Graph for product assemblies and a policy architecture, Graph Assembly Processing Network, dubbed GRACE for assembly sequence generation. With GRACE, we are able to extract meaningful information from the graph input and predict assembly sequences in a step-by-step manner. In experiments, we show that our approach can predict feasible assembly sequences across product variants of aluminum profiles based on data collected in simulation of a dual-armed robotic system. We further demonstrate that our method is capable of detecting infeasible assemblies, substantially alleviating the undesirable impacts from false predictions, and hence facilitating real-world deployment soon. Code and training data are available at https://github.com/DLR-RM/GRACE.


Fairness in Recommendation: Foundations, Methods and Applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As one of the most pervasive applications of machine learning, recommender systems are playing an important role on assisting human decision making. The satisfaction of users and the interests of platforms are closely related to the quality of the generated recommendation results. However, as a highly data-driven system, recommender system could be affected by data or algorithmic bias and thus generate unfair results, which could weaken the reliance of the systems. As a result, it is crucial to address the potential unfairness problems in recommendation settings. Recently, there has been growing attention on fairness considerations in recommender systems with more and more literature on approaches to promote fairness in recommendation. However, the studies are rather fragmented and lack a systematic organization, thus making it difficult to penetrate for new researchers to the domain. This motivates us to provide a systematic survey of existing works on fairness in recommendation. This survey focuses on the foundations for fairness in recommendation literature. It first presents a brief introduction about fairness in basic machine learning tasks such as classification and ranking in order to provide a general overview of fairness research, as well as introduce the more complex situations and challenges that need to be considered when studying fairness in recommender systems. After that, the survey will introduce fairness in recommendation with a focus on the taxonomies of current fairness definitions, the typical techniques for improving fairness, as well as the datasets for fairness studies in recommendation. The survey also talks about the challenges and opportunities in fairness research with the hope of promoting the fair recommendation research area and beyond.


A Memory-Augmented Multi-Task Collaborative Framework for Unsupervised Traffic Accident Detection in Driving Videos

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Identifying traffic accidents in driving videos is crucial to ensuring the safety of autonomous driving and driver assistance systems. To address the potential danger caused by the long-tailed distribution of driving events, existing traffic accident detection (TAD) methods mainly rely on unsupervised learning. However, TAD is still challenging due to the rapid movement of cameras and dynamic scenes in driving scenarios. Existing unsupervised TAD methods mainly rely on a single pretext task, i.e., an appearance-based or future object localization task, to detect accidents. However, appearance-based approaches are easily disturbed by the rapid movement of the camera and changes in illumination, which significantly reduce the performance of traffic accident detection. Methods based on future object localization may fail to capture appearance changes in video frames, making it difficult to detect ego-involved accidents (e.g., out of control of the ego-vehicle). In this paper, we propose a novel memory-augmented multi-task collaborative framework (MAMTCF) for unsupervised traffic accident detection in driving videos. Different from previous approaches, our method can more accurately detect both ego-involved and non-ego accidents by simultaneously modeling appearance changes and object motions in video frames through the collaboration of optical flow reconstruction and future object localization tasks. Further, we introduce a memory-augmented motion representation mechanism to fully explore the interrelation between different types of motion representations and exploit the high-level features of normal traffic patterns stored in memory to augment motion representations, thus enlarging the difference from anomalies. Experimental results on recently published large-scale dataset demonstrate that our method achieves better performance compared to previous state-of-the-art approaches.


Role of Image Acquisition and Patient Phenotype Variations in Automatic Segmentation Model Generalization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Purpose: This study evaluated the out-of-domain performance and generalization capabilities of automated medical image segmentation models, with a particular focus on adaptation to new image acquisitions and disease type. Materials: Datasets from both non-contrast and contrast-enhanced abdominal CT scans of healthy patients and those with polycystic kidney disease (PKD) were used. A total of 400 images (100 non-contrast controls, 100 contrast controls, 100 non-contrast PKD, 100 contrast PKD) were utilized for training/validation of models to segment kidneys, livers, and spleens, and the final models were then tested on 100 non-contrast CT images of patients affected by PKD. Performance was evaluated using Dice, Jaccard, TPR, and Precision. Results: Models trained on a diverse range of data showed no worse performance than models trained exclusively on in-domain data when tested on in-domain data. For instance, the Dice similarity of the model trained on 25% from each dataset was found to be non-inferior to the model trained purely on in-domain data. Conclusions: The results indicate that broader training examples significantly enhances model generalization and out-of-domain performance, thereby improving automated segmentation tools' applicability in clinical settings. The study's findings provide a roadmap for future research to adopt a data-centric approach in medical image AI model development.


Predictive Maintenance of Armoured Vehicles using Machine Learning Approaches

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Armoured vehicles are specialized and complex pieces of machinery designed to operate in high-stress environments, often in combat or tactical situations. This study proposes a predictive maintenance-based ensemble system that aids in predicting potential maintenance needs based on sensor data collected from these vehicles. The proposed model's architecture involves various models such as Light Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, Decision Tree, Extra Tree Classifier and Gradient Boosting to predict the maintenance requirements of the vehicles accurately. In addition, K-fold cross validation, along with TOPSIS analysis, is employed to evaluate the proposed ensemble model's stability. The results indicate that the proposed system achieves an accuracy of 98.93%, precision of 99.80% and recall of 99.03%. The algorithm can effectively predict maintenance needs, thereby reducing vehicle downtime and improving operational efficiency. Through comparisons between various algorithms and the suggested ensemble, this study highlights the potential of machine learning-based predictive maintenance solutions.


Non-Linear Self Augmentation Deep Pipeline for Cancer Treatment outcome Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Immunotherapy emerges as promising approach for treating cancer. Encouraging findings have validated the efficacy of immunotherapy medications in addressing tumors, resulting in prolonged survival rates and notable reductions in toxicity compared to conventional chemotherapy methods. However, the pool of eligible patients for immunotherapy remains relatively small, indicating a lack of comprehensive understanding regarding the physiological mechanisms responsible for favorable treatment response in certain individuals while others experience limited benefits. To tackle this issue, the authors present an innovative strategy that harnesses a non-linear cellular architecture in conjunction with a deep downstream classifier. This approach aims to carefully select and enhance 2D features extracted from chest-abdomen CT images, thereby improving the prediction of treatment outcomes. The proposed pipeline has been meticulously designed to seamlessly integrate with an advanced embedded Point of Care system. In this context, the authors present a compelling case study focused on Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma (mUC), a particularly aggressive form of cancer. Performance evaluation of the proposed approach underscores its effectiveness, with an impressive overall accuracy of approximately 93%


Automatically Evaluating Opinion Prevalence in Opinion Summarization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

When faced with a large number of product reviews, it is not clear that a human can remember all of them and weight opinions representatively to write a good reference summary. We propose an automatic metric to test the prevalence of the opinions that a summary expresses, based on counting the number of reviews that are consistent with each statement in the summary, while discrediting trivial or redundant statements. To formulate this opinion prevalence metric, we consider several existing methods to score the factual consistency of a summary statement with respect to each individual source review. On a corpus of Amazon product reviews, we gather multiple human judgments of the opinion consistency, to determine which automatic metric best expresses consistency in product reviews. Using the resulting opinion prevalence metric, we show that a human authored summary has only slightly better opinion prevalence than randomly selected extracts from the source reviews, and previous extractive and abstractive unsupervised opinion summarization methods perform worse than humans. We demonstrate room for improvement with a greedy construction of extractive summaries with twice the opinion prevalence achieved by humans. Finally, we show that preprocessing source reviews by simplification can raise the opinion prevalence achieved by existing abstractive opinion summarization systems to the level of human performance.


How Does Diffusion Influence Pretrained Language Models on Out-of-Distribution Data?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transformer-based pretrained language models (PLMs) have achieved great success in modern NLP. An important advantage of PLMs is good out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness. Recently, diffusion models have attracted a lot of work to apply diffusion to PLMs. It remains under-explored how diffusion influences PLMs on OOD data. The core of diffusion models is a forward diffusion process which gradually applies Gaussian noise to inputs, and a reverse denoising process which removes noise. The noised input reconstruction is a fundamental ability of diffusion models. We directly analyze OOD robustness by measuring the reconstruction loss, including testing the abilities to reconstruct OOD data, and to detect OOD samples. Experiments are conducted by analyzing different training parameters and data statistical features on eight datasets. It shows that finetuning PLMs with diffusion degrades the reconstruction ability on OOD data. The comparison also shows that diffusion models can effectively detect OOD samples, achieving state-of-the-art performance in most of the datasets with an absolute accuracy improvement up to 18%. These results indicate that diffusion reduces OOD robustness of PLMs.


On the Vulnerability of Fairness Constrained Learning to Malicious Noise

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider the vulnerability of fairness-constrained learning to small amounts of malicious noise in the training data. Konstantinov and Lampert (2021) initiated the study of this question and presented negative results showing there exist data distributions where for several fairness constraints, any proper learner will exhibit high vulnerability when group sizes are imbalanced. Here, we present a more optimistic view, showing that if we allow randomized classifiers, then the landscape is much more nuanced. For example, for Demographic Parity we show we can incur only a $\Theta(\alpha)$ loss in accuracy, where $\alpha$ is the malicious noise rate, matching the best possible even without fairness constraints. For Equal Opportunity, we show we can incur an $O(\sqrt{\alpha})$ loss, and give a matching $\Omega(\sqrt{\alpha})$lower bound. In contrast, Konstantinov and Lampert (2021) showed for proper learners the loss in accuracy for both notions is $\Omega(1)$. The key technical novelty of our work is how randomization can bypass simple "tricks" an adversary can use to amplify his power. We also consider additional fairness notions including Equalized Odds and Calibration. For these fairness notions, the excess accuracy clusters into three natural regimes $O(\alpha)$,$O(\sqrt{\alpha})$ and $O(1)$. These results provide a more fine-grained view of the sensitivity of fairness-constrained learning to adversarial noise in training data.