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SurvDiff: A Diffusion Model for Generating Synthetic Data in Survival Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Survival analysis is a cornerstone of clinical research by modeling time-to-event outcomes such as metastasis, disease relapse, or patient death. Unlike standard tabular data, survival data often come with incomplete event information due to dropout, or loss to follow-up. This poses unique challenges for synthetic data generation, where it is crucial for clinical research to faithfully reproduce both the event-time distribution and the censoring mechanism. In this paper, we propose SurvDiff, an end-to-end diffusion model specifically designed for generating synthetic data in survival analysis. SurvDiff is tailored to capture the data-generating mechanism by jointly generating mixed-type covariates, event times, and right-censoring, guided by a survival-tailored loss function. The loss encodes the time-to-event structure and directly optimizes for downstream survival tasks, which ensures that SurvDiff (i) reproduces realistic event-time distributions and (ii) preserves the censoring mechanism. Across multiple datasets, we show that \survdiff consistently outperforms state-of-the-art generative baselines in both distributional fidelity and downstream evaluation metrics across multiple medical datasets. To the best of our knowledge, SurvDiff is the first diffusion model explicitly designed for generating synthetic survival data.


Towards Efficient Online Exploration for Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of natural language tasks, yet aligning their behavior with human preferences remains a central challenge. A widely adopted solution is reinforcement learning with human feedback (RLHF), which fine-tunes a pretrained LLM using human preference data (Bai et al., 2022; Christiano et al., 2017; Ziegler et al., 2019). The standard RLHF pipeline involves three stages: (i) supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on human-written demonstrations to produce a baseline model; (ii) training a reward model from human preference comparisons (Bradley and Terry, 1952); and (iii) optimizing the LLM with reinforcement learning against the learned reward. This framework has been instrumental in the success of instruction-following LLMs such as InstructGPT (Ouyang et al., 2022) and ChatGPT (OpenAI, 2023), enabling models to produce responses that are more helpful, safe, and aligned with human expectations. Despite this progress, most existing RLHF implementations are offline (Azar et al., 2024; Rafailov et al., 2024; Zhao et al., 2023): the preference data is collected once from static policies, and the reward model is trained on this fixed dataset (Ivison et al., 2023; Shi et al., 2025; Zhu et al., 2024). While effective, offline RLHF has inherent limitations--It cannot adaptively explore the enormous space of natural language, leading to inefficient use of expensive human feedback. In contrast, online RLHF offers a more powerful alternative: the policy iteratively collects new preference data, updates the reward model, and improves itself based on these updates (Chen et al., 2024; Dong et al., 2024; Feng et al., 2025; Guo et al., 2024; Rosset et al., 2024; Xiong et al., 2023).


A Theoretical Analysis of Discrete Flow Matching Generative Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We provide a theoretical analysis for end-to-end training Discrete Flow Matching (DFM) generative models. DFM is a promising discrete generative modeling framework that learns the underlying generative dynamics by training a neural network to approximate the transformative velocity field. Our analysis establishes a clear chain of guarantees by decomposing the final distribution estimation error. We first prove that the total variation distance between the generated and target distributions is controlled by the risk of the learned velocity field. We then bound this risk by analyzing its two primary sources: (i) Approximation Error, where we quantify the capacity of the Transformer architecture to represent the true velocity, and (ii) Estimation Error, where we derive statistical convergence rates that bound the error from training on a finite dataset. By composing these results, we provide the first formal proof that the distribution generated by a trained DFM model provably converges to the true data distribution as the training set size increases.


Linear Causal Representation Learning by Topological Ordering, Pruning, and Disentanglement

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Causal representation learning (CRL) has garnered increasing interests from the causal inference and artificial intelligence community, due to its capability of disentangling potentially complex data-generating mechanism into causally interpretable latent features, by leveraging the heterogeneity of modern datasets. In this paper, we further contribute to the CRL literature, by focusing on the stylized linear structural causal model over the latent features and assuming a linear mixing function that maps latent features to the observed data or measurements. Existing linear CRL methods often rely on stringent assumptions, such as accessibility to single-node interventional data or restrictive distributional constraints on latent features and exogenous measurement noise. However, these prerequisites can be challenging to satisfy in certain scenarios. In this work, we propose a novel linear CRL algorithm that, unlike most existing linear CRL methods, operates under weaker assumptions about environment heterogeneity and data-generating distributions while still recovering latent causal features up to an equivalence class. We further validate our new algorithm via synthetic experiments and an interpretability analysis of large language models (LLMs), demonstrating both its superiority over competing methods in finite samples and its potential in integrating causality into AI.


CausalKANs: interpretable treatment effect estimation with Kolmogorov-Arnold networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Deep neural networks achieve state-of-the-art performance in estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, but their opacity limits trust and adoption in sensitive domains such as medicine, economics, and public policy. Building on well-established and high-performing causal neural architectures, we propose causalKANs, a framework that transforms neural estimators of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) into Kolmogorov--Arnold Networks (KANs). By incorporating pruning and symbolic simplification, causalKANs yields interpretable closed-form formulas while preserving predictive accuracy. Experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that causalKANs perform on par with neural baselines in CATE error metrics, and that even simple KAN variants achieve competitive performance, offering a favorable accuracy--interpretability trade-off. By combining reliability with analytic accessibility, causalKANs provide auditable estimators supported by closed-form expressions and interpretable plots, enabling trustworthy individualized decision-making in high-stakes settings. We release the code for reproducibility at https://github.com/aalmodovares/causalkans .