Microsimulation models used by ministries of finance and central banks rely on parametric processes for lifetime earnings that capture only first and second moments of the conditional distribution and miss long-range nonlinear structure. We propose SAGA, a decoder-only transformer for irregular tabular panel sequences, paired with a split conformal calibration wrapper that delivers individual-level prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees. Trained on the longitudinal Swedish LISA register over 1990 to 2022, comprising 2,143,817 individuals and 61,284,903 person-years, the model forecasts annual labor earnings at horizons of one to thirty years and aggregates them by Monte Carlo into present-discounted lifetime earnings distributions. Against the canonical Guvenen, Karahan, Ozkan, and Song parametric process and tabular and recurrent baselines, SAGA reduces continuous ranked probability score by 31.9 percent at the ten-year horizon and mean absolute error by 37.7 percent at the twenty-year horizon. Conformal intervals achieve nominal coverage to within 0.4 percentage points marginally and within 2.4 percentage points on the worst-case demographic subgroup. The reconstructed lifetime earnings Gini coefficient is 0.327 against the partially observed truth of 0.341 and the GKOS estimate of 0.378. Model weights, calibration tables, and a synthetic equivalent dataset are released for replication outside the protected SCB MONA environment.

Schedule-Free Learning has shown promise as a practical anytime training method for machine learning, showing success across dozens of standard benchmark problems. However, strong performance for LLM training has only been demonstrated at small scales. We identify a number of fixes necessary to scale up Schedule-Free Learning to larger batch sizes and model sizes, and present a learning-rate-free and schedule-free method (ScheduleFree+) for training large language models which greatly outperforms Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) schedules. We also demonstrate that Schedule-Free Learning is most effective for long duration training, and at 1000 tokens per parameter, it outperforms SOTA schedules by 31%. Schedule-Free Learning provides a theoretical foundation for the use of model averaging and checkpoint merging during pretraining.

Hallucination remains a central failure mode of large language models, but existing benchmarks operationalize it inconsistently across tasks such as summarization, question answering, retrieval-augmented generation, and agentic interaction. This fragmentation makes it unclear whether a mitigation that works in one setting actually reduces hallucinations across contexts. Current hallucination benchmarks either require human annotation and fixed references that may eventually be memorized, or rely on naturalistic observations often recorded in settings that are difficult to reproduce or test systematically. To enable further research on the root causes of hallucination, we introduce HALLUWORLD, an extensible benchmark framework grounded in an explicit reference-world formulation: a model hallucinates when it produces an observable claim that is false with respect to this reference world. Building on this view, we construct a family of synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmark environments in which the reference world is fully specified, the model's observable view is controlled, and hallucination labels can be generated automatically by construction. HALLUWORLD spans multiple settings that are classically representative for AI, i.e., gridworlds, chess, and realistic terminal tasks. This enables controlled variation of key factors such as world complexity, observability, temporal change, and source-conflict policy, allowing us to disentangle hallucinations into more fine-grained error categories. We evaluate frontier and open-weight language models across these settings and find consistent patterns across domains: perceptual hallucination on directly observed information is near-solved for frontier models, while multi-step state tracking and causal forward simulation are still difficult for frontier models, and are not generally solved by extended thinking.

We study post-hoc Learning to Defer (L2D) through the lens of ideal distributions: divergence-regularized reweightings of the data distribution under which a model attains low loss. We define deferral via the density-ratio between a model's and an expert's ideals. Using the reduction from density-ratio estimation to class-probability estimation, we derive the DR CPE losses for post-hoc L2D scorers. Deferral decisions are then made by thresholding the scorer, allowing deferral rates to be adjusted without retraining. For KL-based ideal distributions, our deferral rules recovers Chow's rule under the original distribution and a connection to an expert-tilted Bayes posterior -- which incorporates the expert's performance -- depending on if the ideal distributions are joint or marginal distributions. Experimentally, our approach is competitive compared to common baselines and more robust across dataset settings. More broadly, our results cast post-hoc L2D as density-ratio learning between ideal distributions, bridging Chow-style rules, expert comparison, and elucidating connections to related learning settings including anomaly detection.

Accurately assessing financial risk requires capturing both individual asset volatility and the complex, asymmetric dependence structures that emerge during extreme market events. While modern diffusion-based models have advanced multivariate forecasting, they often suffer from a "normality bias" when trained end-to-end, sacrificing marginal calibration for joint coherence and consistently underestimating tail risk. To address this, we propose a Diffusion-Copula framework that explicitly decouples the learning of marginal distributions from their dependence structure. We employ deep Mixture Density Networks to capture heavy-tailed asset dynamics, followed by a Classification-Diffusion Copula to model the joint dependence. Applied to cryptocurrency markets, our approach demonstrates superior performance over state-of-the-art baselines in forecasting systemic extremes of both marginal and joint events. Crucially, we demonstrate that while baseline models classify simultaneous market crashes as statistically impossible "Black Swans" (high surprise), our framework identifies them as "Expected Crashes" (low surprise), successfully preserving the correlation structure necessary for robust risk management during contagion events.

The ability to maintain and manipulate information over time is a fundamental aspect of living beings and Artificial Intelligence. While modern models have achieved remarkable success in tasks like natural language processing, evaluating the capacity of novel architectures to process sequential information remains computationally expensive and time-consuming. Testing a new architecture often requires scaling up to massive datasets and models, leading to vast computational costs and slow iteration cycles. In this paper, we propose CogScale, a benchmark of 14 scalable synthetic tasks designed to isolate and evaluate specific cognitive and memory abilities at different parametrizable scales. By providing a standardized, lightweight framework, CogScale allows researchers to rapidly validate architectural innovations before committing to large-scale training. To establish a solid baseline, we evaluate seven distinct architectures: Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), xLSTM, Echo State Network (ESN), Mamba, Transformer Decoder, and Transformer Encoder-Decoder. These evaluations are conducted under strict parameter budgets (1k, 10k, and 100k) and across different difficulty levels and scales. Our results show that while classical RNNs and Echo State Networks excel at basic retention within strict parameter budgets, only attention mechanisms and modern state-space models consistently maintain high performance as reasoning complexity and task difficulty scale.

Gear Wearables Google's Android XR smart glasses hope to succeed where AI-first wearables have failed The audio-only frames pair with Android and iOS so a Gemini agent can run errands on your phone while you stay heads-up. More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. We may earn revenue from the products available on this page and participate in affiliate programs. Google put AI on people's faces more than a decade ago with its Google Glass wearable. It was designed to put a computer directly on your face, but the world (and to some extent, the hardware) wasn't quite ready for that yet.

Google is sprucing up its Gemini models, revamping search, and enabling AI agents in everything. There are also some spiffy new smart glasses coming this fall. Google just wrapped its keynote address at its annual I/O developer event . The company showed off a swath of new agentic AI features and some demos of its upcoming Android-powered smart glasses. As it has in the past few years, the spectacle largely revolved around Google's perpetual stream of AI efforts.

On the eve of about 8,000 jobs being cut, employees are cashing in on headphone stipends and other perks while they still can. Ahead of Meta's latest round of mass layoffs tomorrow, some employees are deserting offices, abandoning their work, and loading up on perks they might soon lose, several people at the company tell WIRED. Two employees describe a widespread rush to use up an annual $2,000 flexible benefit, which can cover a variety of expenses including health and wellness activities. A separate triennial credit of $200 toward the purchase of audio gear has led to a scramble to purchase Apple AirPods and other headphones. Another source says Meta offices have been largely empty this week, as people prioritize polishing their résumés and gather offsite to commiserate with friends for what may be their final time as colleagues.

Eyes in the tech world have turned toward Mountain View, California this week. The San Francisco Bay Area city is where Google's headquarters is located, making it a logical place to hold the company's annual developer conference. That's right, gang, Google I/O 2026 kicked off on Tuesday with the usual opening keynote, which is where the company reveals what's arguably the event's most relevant info for consumers. Google made a ton of Android announcements last week, so its mobile ecosystem wasn't really on the agenda. But what else could the onus possibly have been on if not AI? We heard the word Gemini more times than I could possibly care to count, and the company had many updates to share on that front. Search, Google's longtime bread and butter, was a big focus of the event. The company talked up a new Ask YouTube feature as well as changes to AI subscription pricing and Workspace features like Docs and Gmail.