We present a probabilistic programmed deep kernel learning approach to personalized, predictive modeling of neurodegenerative diseases. Our analysis considers a spectrum of neural and symbolic machine learning approaches, which we assess for predictive performance and important medical AI properties such as interpretability, uncertainty reasoning, data-efficiency, and leveraging domain knowledge. Our Bayesian approach combines the flexibility of Gaussian processes with the structural power of neural networks to model biomarker progressions, without needing clinical labels for training. We run evaluations on the problem of Alzheimer's disease prediction, yielding results surpassing deep learning and with the practical advantages of Bayesian non-parametrics and probabilistic programming.

For sake of reliability, it is necessary for models in real-world applications to be both powerful and globally interpretable. Simple classifiers, e.g., Logistic Regression (LR), are globally interpretable, but not powerful enough to model complex nonlinear interactions among features in tabular data. Meanwhile, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have shown great effectiveness for modeling tabular data, but is not globally interpretable. In this work, we find local piece-wise interpretations in DNN of a specific feature are usually inconsistent in different samples, which is caused by feature interactions in the hidden layers. Accordingly, we can design an automatic feature crossing method to find feature interactions in DNN, and use them as cross features in LR. We give definition of the interpretation inconsistency in DNN, based on which a novel feature crossing method called DNN2LR is proposed. Extensive experiments have been conducted on four public datasets and two real-world datasets. The final model, i.e., a LR model empowered with cross features, generated by DNN2LR can outperform the complex DNN model, as well as several state-of-the-art feature crossing methods. The experimental results strongly verify the effectiveness and efficiency of DNN2LR, especially on real-world datasets with large numbers of feature fields.

Model-free reinforcement learning (MFRL) has achieved great success in game playing [1, 2], robot navigation [3, 4] and etc. However, extending existing RL methods to real-world environments remains challenging, because they require long-horizon reasoning with the low-dimensional useful features, e.g., the position of a robot, embedded in high-dimensional complex observations, e.g., visually rich images. Consider a four-legged mini-cheetah robot [5] navigating on the campus. To determine the traversable path, the robot must extract the relevant geometric features that coexist with irrelevant variable backgrounds, such as the moving pedestrians, paintings on the wall, etc. Model-based RL (MBRL), in contrast to the model-free methods, reasons a world model trained by generative learning and greatly improves the sample efficiency of the model-free methods [6, 7, 8]. Recent MBRL methods learn compact latent world models from high-dimensional visual inputs with Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) [9] by optimizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO) of an observation sequence [10, 11]. However, learning a generative model under complex observations is challenging.

Decomposing models into multiple components is critically important in many applications such as language modeling (LM) as it enables adapting individual components separately and biasing of some components to the user's personal preferences. Conventionally, contextual and personalized adaptation for language models, are achieved through class-based factorization, which requires class-annotated data, or through biasing to individual phrases which is limited in scale. In this paper, we propose a system that combines model-defined components, by learning when to activate the generation process from each individual component, and how to combine probability distributions from each component, directly from unlabeled text data.

Domain Adaptation (DA) enables transferring a learning machine from a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target one. While remarkable advances have been made, most of the existing DA methods focus on improving the target accuracy at inference. How to estimate the predictive uncertainty of DA models is vital for decision-making in safety-critical scenarios but remains the boundary to explore. In this paper, we delve into the open problem of Calibration in DA, which is extremely challenging due to the coexistence of domain shift and the lack of target labels. We first reveal the dilemma that DA models learn higher accuracy at the expense of well-calibrated probabilities. Driven by this finding, we propose Transferable Calibration (TransCal) to achieve more accurate calibration with lower bias and variance in a unified hyperparameter-free optimization framework. As a general post-hoc calibration method, TransCal can be easily applied to recalibrate existing DA methods. Its efficacy has been justified both theoretically and empirically.

Pruning the parameters of deep neural networks has generated intense interest due to potential savings in time, memory and energy both during training and at test time. Recent works have identified, through an expensive sequence of training and pruning cycles, the existence of winning lottery tickets or sparse trainable subnetworks at initialization. This raises a foundational question: can we identify highly sparse trainable subnetworks at initialization, without ever training, or indeed without ever looking at the data? We provide an affirmative answer to this question through theory driven algorithm design. We first mathematically formulate and experimentally verify a conservation law that explains why existing gradient-based pruning algorithms at initialization suffer from layer-collapse, the premature pruning of an entire layer rendering a network untrainable. This theory also elucidates how layer-collapse can be entirely avoided, motivating a novel pruning algorithm Iterative Synaptic Flow Pruning (SynFlow). This algorithm can be interpreted as preserving the total flow of synaptic strengths through the network at initialization subject to a sparsity constraint. Notably, this algorithm makes no reference to the training data and consistently competes with or outperforms existing state-of-the-art pruning algorithms at initialization over a range of models (VGG and ResNet), datasets (CIFAR-10/100 and Tiny ImageNet), and sparsity constraints (up to 99.99 percent). Thus our data-agnostic pruning algorithm challenges the existing paradigm that, at initialization, data must be used to quantify which synapses are important.

This paper considers the problem of multi-modal future trajectory forecast with ranking. Here, multi-modality and ranking refer to the multiple plausible path predictions and the confidence in those predictions, respectively. We propose Social-STAGE, Social interaction-aware Spatio-Temporal multi-Attention Graph convolution network with novel Evaluation for multi-modality. Our main contributions include analysis and formulation of multi-modality with ranking using interaction and multi-attention, and introduction of new metrics to evaluate the diversity and associated confidence of multi-modal predictions. We evaluate our approach on existing public datasets ETH and UCY and show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the state of the arts on these datasets.

High-speed arm motions can dynamically manipulate ropes and cables to vault over obstacles, knock objects from pedestals, and weave between obstacles. In this paper, we propose a self-supervised learning pipeline that enables a UR5 robot to perform these three tasks. The pipeline trains a deep convolutional neural network that takes as input an image of the scene with object and target. It computes a 3D apex point for the robot arm, which, together with a task-specific trajectory function, defines an arcing motion for a manipulator arm to dynamically manipulate the cable to perform a task with varying obstacle and target locations. The trajectory function computes high-speed minimum-jerk arcing motions that are constrained to remain within joint limits and to travel through the 3D apex point by repeatedly solving quadratic programs for shorter time horizons to find the shortest and fastest feasible motion. We experiment with the proposed pipeline on 5 physical cables with different thickness and mass and compare performance with two baselines in which a human chooses the apex point. Results suggest that the robot using the learned apex point can achieve success rates of 81.7% in vaulting, 65.0% in knocking, and 60.0% in weaving, while a baseline with a fixed apex across the three tasks achieves respective success rates of 51.7%, 36.7%, and 15.0%, and a baseline with human-specified task-specific apex points achieves 66.7%, 56.7%, and 15.0% success rate respectively. Code, data, and supplementary materials are available at https: //sites.google.com/berkeley.edu/dynrope/home

Safe and efficient navigation through human crowds is an essential capability for mobile robots. Previous work on robot crowd navigation assumes that the dynamics of all agents are known and well-defined. In addition, the performance of previous methods deteriorates in partially observable environments and environments with dense crowds. To tackle these problems, we propose decentralized structural-Recurrent Neural Network (DS-RNN), a novel network that reasons about spatial and temporal relationships for robot decision making in crowd navigation. We train our network with model-free deep reinforcement learning without any expert supervision. We demonstrate that our model outperforms previous methods and successfully transfer the policy learned in the simulator to a real-world TurtleBot 2i.

The Winograd Schema Challenge (WSC) and variants inspired by it have become important benchmarks for common-sense reasoning (CSR). Model performance on the WSC has quickly progressed from chance-level to near-human using neural language models trained on massive corpora. In this paper, we analyze the effects of varying degrees of overlap between these training corpora and the test instances in WSC-style tasks. We find that a large number of test instances overlap considerably with the corpora on which state-of-the-art models are (pre)trained, and that a significant drop in classification accuracy occurs when we evaluate models on instances with minimal overlap. Based on these results, we develop the KnowRef-60K dataset, which consists of over 60k pronoun disambiguation problems scraped from web data. KnowRef-60K is the largest corpus to date for WSC-style common-sense reasoning and exhibits a significantly lower proportion of overlaps with current pretraining corpora.