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Electrical peak demand forecasting- A review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The power system is undergoing rapid evolution with the roll-out of advanced metering infrastructure and local energy applications (e.g. electric vehicles) as well as the increasing penetration of intermittent renewable energy at both transmission and distribution level, which characterizes the peak load demand with stronger randomness and less predictability and therefore poses a threat to the power grid security. Since storing large quantities of electricity to satisfy load demand is neither economically nor environmentally friendly, effective peak demand management strategies and reliable peak load forecast methods become essential for optimizing the power system operations. To this end, this paper provides a timely and comprehensive overview of peak load demand forecast methods in the literature. To our best knowledge, this is the first comprehensive review on such topic. In this paper we first give a precise and unified problem definition of peak load demand forecast. Second, 139 papers on peak load forecast methods were systematically reviewed where methods were classified into different stages based on the timeline. Thirdly, a comparative analysis of peak load forecast methods are summarized and different optimizing methods to improve the forecast performance are discussed. The paper ends with a comprehensive summary of the reviewed papers and a discussion of potential future research directions.


RAIN: Reinforced Hybrid Attention Inference Network for Motion Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Motion forecasting plays a significant role in various domains (e.g., autonomous driving, human-robot interaction), which aims to predict future motion sequences given a set of historical observations. However, the observed elements may be of different levels of importance. Some information may be irrelevant or even distracting to the forecasting in certain situations. To address this issue, we propose a generic motion forecasting framework (named RAIN) with dynamic key information selection and ranking based on a hybrid attention mechanism. The general framework is instantiated to handle multi-agent trajectory prediction and human motion forecasting tasks, respectively. In the former task, the model learns to recognize the relations between agents with a graph representation and to determine their relative significance. In the latter task, the model learns to capture the temporal proximity and dependency in long-term human motions. We also propose an effective double-stage training pipeline with an alternating training strategy to optimize the parameters in different modules of the framework. We validate the framework on both synthetic simulations and motion forecasting benchmarks in different domains, demonstrating that our method not only achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, but also provides interpretable and reasonable hybrid attention weights.


Skeleton Split Strategies for Spatial Temporal Graph Convolution Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A skeleton representation of the human body has been proven to be effective for this task. The skeletons are presented in graphs form-like. However, the topology of a graph is not structured like Euclidean-based data. Therefore, a new set of methods to perform the convolution operation upon the skeleton graph is presented. Our proposal is based upon the ST-GCN framework proposed by Yan et al. [1]. In this study, we present an improved set of label mapping methods for the ST-GCN framework. We introduce three split processes (full distance split, connection split, and index split) as an alternative approach for the convolution operation. To evaluate the performance, the experiments presented in this study have been trained using two benchmark datasets: NTU-RGB+D and Kinetics. Our results indicate that all of our split processes outperform the previous partition strategies and are more stable during training without using the edge importance weighting additional training parameter. Therefore, our proposal can provide a more realistic solution for real-time applications centred on daily living recognition systems activities for indoor environments.


LICHEE: Improving Language Model Pre-training with Multi-grained Tokenization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Language model pre-training based on large corpora has achieved tremendous success in terms of constructing enriched contextual representations and has led to significant performance gains on a diverse range of Natural Language Understanding (NLU) tasks. Despite the success, most current pre-trained language models, such as BERT, are trained based on single-grained tokenization, usually with fine-grained characters or sub-words, making it hard for them to learn the precise meaning of coarse-grained words and phrases. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective pre-training method named LICHEE to efficiently incorporate multi-grained information of input text. Our method can be applied to various pre-trained language models and improve their representation capability. Extensive experiments conducted on CLUE and SuperGLUE demonstrate that our method achieves comprehensive improvements on a wide variety of NLU tasks in both Chinese and English with little extra inference cost incurred, and that our best ensemble model achieves the state-of-the-art performance on CLUE benchmark competition.


How Well do Feature Visualizations Support Causal Understanding of CNN Activations?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

One widely used approach towards understanding the inner workings of deep convolutional neural networks is to visualize unit responses via activation maximization. Feature visualizations via activation maximization are thought to provide humans with precise information about the image features that cause a unit to be activated. If this is indeed true, these synthetic images should enable humans to predict the effect of an intervention, such as whether occluding a certain patch of the image (say, a dog's head) changes a unit's activation. Here, we test this hypothesis by asking humans to predict which of two square occlusions causes a larger change to a unit's activation. Both a large-scale crowdsourced experiment and measurements with experts show that on average, the extremely activating feature visualizations by Olah et al. (2017) indeed help humans on this task ($67 \pm 4\%$ accuracy; baseline performance without any visualizations is $60 \pm 3\%$). However, they do not provide any significant advantage over other visualizations (such as e.g. dataset samples), which yield similar performance ($66 \pm 3\%$ to $67 \pm 3\%$ accuracy). Taken together, we propose an objective psychophysical task to quantify the benefit of unit-level interpretability methods for humans, and find no evidence that feature visualizations provide humans with better "causal understanding" than simple alternative visualizations.


What is Artificial Intelligence? -- Suffixtree

#artificialintelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the field of computer science dedicated to solving cognitive problems commonly associated with human intelligence, such as learning, problem solving, and pattern recognition. Artificial Intelligence, often abbreviated as "AI", may connote robotics or futuristic scenes, AI goes well beyond the automatons of science fiction, into the non-fiction of modern day advanced computer science. Professor Pedro Domingos, a prominent researcher in this field, describes "five tribes" of machine learning, comprised of symbolists, with origins in logic and philosophy; connectionists, stemming from neuroscience; evolutionaries, relating to evolutionary biology; Bayesians, engaged with statistics and probability; and analogizers with origins in psychology. Recently, advances in the efficiency of statistical computation have led to Bayesians being successful at furthering the field in a number of areas, under the name "machine learning". Similarly, advances in network computation have led to connectionists furthering a subfield under the name "deep learning".


GitHub Copilot Open Source Alternatives - KDnuggets

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Recently, GitHub publicly unveiled Copilot, the preview of its "AI pair programmer," a code completion style tool designed to provide line or function suggestions in your IDE. It has certainly made waves in the world of programming and beyond, and you have likely heard at least something about it. But Copilot is more than simple autocomplete and is more context aware than other code assistants. Powered by OpenAI's Codex AI system, Copilot contextualizes a situation using docstrings, function names, comments, and preceding code to best generate and suggest what it determines to be the most appropriate code. Copilot is designed to improve over time, "learning" from how developers use it.


The Machine Learning Schools Championed by the Biggest AI Labs in the World

#artificialintelligence

I recently started an AI-focused educational newsletter, that already has over 80,000 subscribers. TheSequence is a no-BS (meaning no hype, no news etc) ML-oriented newsletter that takes 5 minutes to read. The goal is to keep you up to date with machine learning projects, research papers and concepts. Recently, one of my students asked me a question as of whether DeepMind was solely working in reinforcement learning applications. The answer is obviously no but the question is still valid as it rooted in the fact that most of DeepMind's highly publicized work such as AlphaGo, MuZero or AlphaFold are based in reinforcement learning.


HHS Developing Playbook to Overcome Artificial Intelligence Adoption Challenges

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"[You have to] have a definition of AI, machine learning, you can go into NLP, deep learning and what is the difference between AI โ€ฆ


GPU-Powered Data Science (NOT Deep Learning) with RAPIDS - KDnuggets

#artificialintelligence

You do a lot of data wrangling, cleaning, statistical tests, visualizations on a regular basis. You also tinker with a lot of linear models fitting data and occasionally venture into RandomForest. You are also into clustering large datasets. However, given the nature of the datasets you work on (mostly tabular and structured), you don't venture into deep learning that much. You would rather put all the hardware resources you have into the things that you actually do on a day-to-day basis, than spending on some fancy deep learning model.