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 Deep Learning


ProtoTS: Learning Hierarchical Prototypes for Explainable Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While deep learning has achieved impressive performance in time series forecasting, it becomes increasingly crucial to understand its decision-making process for building trust in high-stakes scenarios. Existing interpretable models often provide only local and partial explanations, lacking the capability to reveal how heterogeneous and interacting input variables jointly shape the overall temporal patterns in the forecast curve. We propose ProtoTS, a novel interpretable forecasting framework that achieves both high accuracy and transparent decision-making through modeling prototypical temporal patterns. ProtoTS computes instance-prototype similarity based on a denoised representation that preserves abundant heterogeneous information. The prototypes are organized hierarchically to capture global temporal patterns with coarse prototypes while capturing finer-grained local variations with detailed prototypes, enabling expert steering and multi-level interpretability. Experiments on multiple realistic benchmarks, including a newly released LOF dataset, show that ProtoTS not only exceeds existing methods in forecast accuracy but also delivers expert-steerable interpretations for better model understanding and decision support. Time series forecasting has been widely applied in high-stakes scenarios such as load forecasting (Jiang et al., 2024; Y ang et al., 2023), energy management (Deb et al., 2017; Weron, 2014), weather prediction (Angryk et al., 2020; Karevan & Suykens, 2020), all of which involve considerable financial impacts. In these applications, while achieving high forecast accuracy is crucial, understanding why and how the model makes specific predictions is equally important. It aids in preventing substantial financial losses and building the trust necessary (Rojat et al., 2021). A range of explainable time series forecasting methods have been developed to simultaneously ensure interpretability and good predictive performance (Oreshkin et al., 2019; Lim et al., 2021; Zhao et al., 2024; Lin et al., 2024). However, their overall interpretability and potential for further performance improvement are limited, since they mainly provide local, partial explanations for both the output and input sides: C1: For the output side, existing methods (Lim et al., 2021; Zhao et al., 2024) mainly explain the prediction at individual time steps, lacking the ability to help users quickly interpret the reasons behind the overall trend in the forecast curve. For each instance, model computes its similarity to all prototypes to form a prediction, enabling detailed local interpretation.


Adaptive Margin RLHF via Preference over Preferences

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Margin-based optimization is fundamental to improving generalization and robustness in classification tasks. In the context of reward model learning from preferences within Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), existing methods typically rely on no margins, fixed margins, or margins that are simplistic functions of preference ratings. However, such formulations often fail to account for the varying strengths of different preferences, for example some preferences are associated with larger margins between responses, or they rely on noisy margin information derived from ratings. We argue that modeling the strength of preferences can lead to better generalization and more faithful alignment. Furthermore, many existing methods that use adaptive margins assume access to accurate preference scores, which can be difficult for humans to provide reliably. We propose an approach that leverages preferences over preferences, that is annotations indicating which of two preferences reflects a stronger distinction. We use this ordinal signal to infer adaptive margins on a per-datapoint basis. We introduce an extension to Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), DPO-PoP, that incorporates adaptive margins from preference-over-preference supervision, enabling improved discriminative and generative performance. Empirically, our method outperforms vanilla DPO, DPO with fixed margins, and DPO with ground-truth margins on the UltraFeedback dataset. Additionally, we show that there is a tradeoff between discriminative and generative performance: improving test classification accuracy, particularly by correctly labeling weaker preferences at the expense of stronger ones, can lead to a decline in generative quality. To navigate this tradeoff, we propose two sampling strategies to gather preference-over-preference labels: one favoring discriminative performance and one favoring generative performance.


Advancing Natural Language Formalization to First Order Logic with Fine-tuned LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Automating the translation of natural language to first-order logic (FOL) is crucial for knowledge representation and formal methods, yet remains challenging. We present a systematic evaluation of fine-tuned LLMs for this task, comparing architectures (encoder-decoder vs. decoder-only) and training strategies. Using the MALLS and Willow datasets, we explore techniques like vocabulary extension, predicate conditioning, and multilingual training, introducing metrics for exact match, logical equivalence, and predicate alignment. Our fine-tuned Flan-T5-XXL achieves 70% accuracy with predicate lists, outperforming GPT-4o and even the DeepSeek-R1-0528 model with CoT reasoning ability as well as symbolic systems like ccg2lambda. Key findings show: (1) predicate availability boosts performance by 15-20%, (2) T5 models surpass larger decoder-only LLMs, and (3) models generalize to unseen logical arguments (FOLIO dataset) without specific training. While structural logic translation proves robust, predicate extraction emerges as the main bottleneck.


TRiCo: Triadic Game-Theoretic Co-Training for Robust Semi-Supervised Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce TRiCo, a novel triadic game-theoretic co-training framework that rethinks the structure of semi-supervised learning by incorporating a teacher, two students, and an adversarial generator into a unified training paradigm. Unlike existing co-training or teacher-student approaches, TRiCo formulates SSL as a structured interaction among three roles: (i) two student classifiers trained on frozen, complementary representations, (ii) a meta-learned teacher that adaptively regulates pseudo-label selection and loss balancing via validation-based feedback, and (iii) a non-parametric generator that perturbs embeddings to uncover decision boundary weaknesses. Pseudo-labels are selected based on mutual information rather than confidence, providing a more robust measure of epistemic uncertainty. This triadic interaction is formalized as a Stackelberg game, where the teacher leads strategy optimization and students follow under adversarial perturbations. By addressing key limitations in existing SSL frameworks, such as static view interactions, unreliable pseudo-labels, and lack of hard sample modeling, TRiCo provides a principled and generalizable solution. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10, SVHN, STL-10, and ImageNet demonstrate that TRiCo consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance in low-label regimes, while remaining architecture-agnostic and compatible with frozen vision backbones.Code:https://github.com/HoHongYeung/NeurIPS25-TRiCo.


Decoupled-Value Attention for Prior-Data Fitted Networks: GP Inference for Physical Equations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) are a promising alternative to time-consuming Gaussian process (GP) inference for creating fast surrogates of physical systems. PFN reduces the computational burden of GP-training by replacing Bayesian inference in GP with a single forward pass of a learned prediction model. We introduce Decoupled-V alue Attention (DV A)- motivated by the GP property that the function space is fully characterized by the kernel over inputs and the predictive mean is a weighted sum of training targets. DV A computes similarities from inputs only and propagates labels solely through values. Thus, the proposed DV A mirrors the GP update while remaining kernel-free. We demonstrate that PFNs are backbone architecture invariant and the crucial factor for scaling PFNs is the attention rule rather than the architecture itself. Specifically, our results demonstrate that (a) localized attention consistently reduces out-of-sample validation loss in PFNs across different dimensional settings, with validation loss reduced by more than 50% in five-and ten-dimensional cases, and (b) the role of attention is more decisive than the choice of backbone architecture, showing that CNN, RNN and LSTM-based PFNs can perform at par with their Transformer-based counterparts. Bayesian inference provides a powerful framework for reasoning under uncertainty, with methods like Gaussian processes (GPs) offering well-calibrated predictions and principled uncertainty estimates (Williams & Rasmussen, 2006). However, the practical application of these methods is often hindered by the heavy computational burden of learning kernel hyperparameters. For example, exact GP inference scales cubically with the number of data points, making its deployment infeasible for large datasets or problems requiring repeated training. Consider a physical system where a surrogate GP is chosen due to its uncertainty estimates and differentiable closed-form expressions. However, the underlying input dataset and configuration changes frequently, and the surrogate is supposed to work for these new, previously unseen variations. In such conditions, GP needs to be trained repeatedly, incurring significant computing cost, each time the dataset changes.


Robust, Observable, and Evolvable Agentic Systems Engineering: A Principled Framework Validated via the Fairy GUI Agent

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Agentic Paradigm faces a significant Software Engineering Absence, yielding Agentic systems commonly lacking robustness, observability, and evolvability. To address these deficiencies, we propose a principled engineering framework comprising Runtime Goal Refinement (RGR), Observable Cognitive Architecture (OCA), and Evolutionary Memory Architecture (EMA). In this framework, RGR ensures robustness and intent alignment via knowledge-constrained refinement and human-in-the-loop clarification; OCA builds an observable and maintainable white-box architecture using component decoupling, logic layering, and state-control separation; and EMA employs an execution-evolution dual-loop for evolvability. We implemented and empirically validated Fairy, a mobile GUI agent based on this framework. On RealMobile-Eval, our novel benchmark for ambiguous and complex tasks, Fairy outperformed the best SoTA baseline in user requirement completion by 33.7%. Subsequent controlled experiments, human-subject studies, and ablation studies further confirmed that the RGR enhances refinement accuracy and prevents intent deviation; the OCA improves maintainability; and the EMA is crucial for long-term performance. This research provides empirically validated specifications and a practical blueprint for building reliable, observable, and evolvable Agentic AI systems.


Interpreting ResNet-based CLIP via Neuron-Attention Decomposition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a novel technique for interpreting the neurons in CLIP-ResNet by decomposing their contributions to the output into individual computation paths. More specifically, we analyze all pairwise combinations of neurons and the following attention heads of CLIP's attention-pooling layer. We find that these neuron-head pairs can be approximated by a single direction in CLIP-ResNet's image-text embedding space. Leveraging this insight, we interpret each neuron-head pair by associating it with text. Additionally, we find that only a sparse set of the neuron-head pairs have a significant contribution to the output value, and that some neuron-head pairs, while polysemantic, represent sub-concepts of their corresponding neurons. We use these observations for two applications. First, we employ the pairs for training-free semantic segmentation, outperforming previous methods for CLIP-ResNet. Second, we utilize the contributions of neuron-head pairs to monitor dataset distribution shifts. Our results demonstrate that examining individual computation paths in neural networks uncovers interpretable units, and that such units can be utilized for downstream tasks.


Remote Sensing-Oriented World Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

World models have shown potential in artificial intelligence by predicting and reasoning about world states beyond direct observations. However, existing approaches are predominantly evaluated in synthetic environments or constrained scene settings, limiting their validation in real-world contexts with broad spatial coverage and complex semantics. Meanwhile, remote sensing applications urgently require spatial reasoning capabilities for disaster response and urban planning. This paper bridges these gaps by introducing the first framework for world modeling in remote sensing. We formulate remote sensing world modeling as direction-conditioned spatial extrapolation, where models generate semantically consistent adjacent image tiles given a central observation and directional instruction. To enable rigorous evaluation, we develop RSWISE (Remote Sensing World-Image Spatial Evaluation), a benchmark containing 1,600 evaluation tasks across four scenarios: general, flood, urban, and rural. RSWISE combines visual fidelity assessment with instruction compliance evaluation using GPT-4o as a semantic judge, ensuring models genuinely perform spatial reasoning rather than simple replication. Afterwards, we present RemoteBAGEL, a unified multimodal model fine-tuned on remote sensing data for spatial extrapolation tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RemoteBAGEL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on RSWISE.


Multi-Scenario Highway Lane-Change Intention Prediction: A Physics-Informed AI Framework for Three-Class Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Lane-change maneuvers are a leading cause of highway accidents, underscoring the need for accurate intention prediction to improve the safety and decision-making of autonomous driving systems. While prior studies using machine learning and deep learning methods (e.g., SVM, CNN, LSTM, Transformers) have shown promise, most approaches remain limited by binary classification, lack of scenario diversity, and degraded performance under longer prediction horizons. In this study, we propose a physics-informed AI framework that explicitly integrates vehicle kinematics, interaction feasibility, and traffic-safety metrics (e.g., distance headway, time headway, time-to-collision, closing gap time) into the learning process. lane-change prediction is formulated as a three-class problem that distinguishes left change, right change, and no change, and is evaluated across both straight highway segments (highD) and complex ramp scenarios (exiD). By integrating vehicle kinematics with interaction features, our machine learning models, particularly LightGBM, achieve state-of-the-art accuracy and strong generalization. Results show up to 99.8% accuracy and 93.6% macro F1 on highD, and 96.1% accuracy and 88.7% macro F1 on exiD at a 1-second horizon, outperforming a two-layer stacked LSTM baseline. These findings demonstrate the practical advantages of a physics-informed and feature-rich machine learning framework for real-time lane-change intention prediction in autonomous driving systems.


PRIMT: Preference-based Reinforcement Learning with Multimodal Feedback and Trajectory Synthesis from Foundation Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Preference-based reinforcement learning (PbRL) has emerged as a promising paradigm for teaching robots complex behaviors without reward engineering. However, its effectiveness is often limited by two critical challenges: the reliance on extensive human input and the inherent difficulties in resolving query ambiguity and credit assignment during reward learning. In this paper, we introduce PRIMT, a PbRL framework designed to overcome these challenges by leveraging foundation models (FMs) for multimodal synthetic feedback and trajectory synthesis. Unlike prior approaches that rely on single-modality FM evaluations, PRIMT employs a hierarchical neuro-symbolic fusion strategy, integrating the complementary strengths of large language models and vision-language models in evaluating robot behaviors for more reliable and comprehensive feedback. PRIMT also incorporates foresight trajectory generation, which reduces early-stage query ambiguity by warm-starting the trajectory buffer with bootstrapped samples, and hindsight trajectory augmentation, which enables counterfactual reasoning with a causal auxiliary loss to improve credit assignment. We evaluate PRIMT on 2 locomotion and 6 manipulation tasks on various benchmarks, demonstrating superior performance over FM-based and scripted baselines.