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 Deep Learning


Can LLMs Detect Their Confabulations? Estimating Reliability in Uncertainty-Aware Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to generating fluent but incorrect content, known as confabulation, which poses increasing risks in multi-turn or agentic applications where outputs may be reused as context. In this work, we investigate how in-context information influences model behavior and whether LLMs can identify their unreliable responses. We propose a reliability estimation that leverages token-level uncertainty to guide the aggregation of internal model representations. Specifically, we compute aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty from output logits to identify salient tokens and aggregate their hidden states into compact representations for response-level reliability prediction. Through controlled experiments on open QA benchmarks, we find that correct in-context information improves both answer accuracy and model confidence, while misleading context often induces confidently incorrect responses, revealing a misalignment between uncertainty and correctness. Our probing-based method captures these shifts in model behavior and improves the detection of unreliable outputs across multiple open-source LLMs. These results underscore the limitations of direct uncertainty signals and highlight the potential of uncertainty-guided probing for reliability-aware generation.


GTPO: Stabilizing Group Relative Policy Optimization via Gradient and Entropy Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is a promising policy-based approach for Large Language Model alignment, yet its performance is often limited by training instability and suboptimal convergence. In this paper, we identify and analyze two main GRPO issues: (i) the token-level penalization, where valuable tokens shared across different responses receive contradictory feedback signals, leading to conflicting gradient updates that can reduce their likelihood; and (ii) the policy collapse, where negatively rewarded completions may penalize confident responses and shift model decisions toward unlikely tokens, destabilizing training process. To address these issues we introduce GTPO (Group-relative Trajectory-based Policy Optimization), which prevents conflicting gradients on valuable tokens by skipping negative updates while amplifying positive ones and filters out completions whose entropy exceeds a provable threshold, to prevent policy collapse. Unlike GRPO, GTPO does not rely on KL-divergence regularization, eliminating the need for a reference model during training, while still ensuring greater training stability and improved performance, as validated through multiple experiments on GSM8K, MA TH, AIME 2024, AIME 2025 and AMC 2023.


UniExtreme: A Universal Foundation Model for Extreme Weather Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in deep learning have led to the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for weather forecasting, yet their ability to predict extreme weather events remains limited. Existing approaches either focus on general weather conditions or specialize in specific-type extremes, neglecting the real-world atmospheric patterns of diversified extreme events. In this work, we identify two key characteristics of extreme events: (1) the spectral disparity against normal weather regimes, and (2) the hierarchical drivers and geographic blending of diverse extremes. Along this line, we propose UniExtreme, a universal extreme weather forecasting foundation model that integrates (1) an Adaptive Frequency Modulation (AFM) module that captures region-wise spectral differences between normal and extreme weather, through learnable Beta-distribution filters and multi-granularity spectral aggregation, and (2) an Event Prior Augmentation (EPA) module which incorporates region-specific extreme event priors to resolve hierarchical extreme diversity and composite extreme schema, via a dual-level memory fusion network. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UniExtreme outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both extreme and general weather forecasting, showcasing superior adaptability across diverse extreme scenarios.


Optimizing Drivers' Discount Order Acceptance Strategies: A Policy-Improved Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient Framework

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid expansion of platform integration has emerged as an effective solution to mitigate market fragmentation by consolidating multiple ride-hailing platforms into a single application. To address heterogeneous passenger preferences, third-party integrators provide Discount Express service delivered by express drivers at lower trip fares. For the individual platform, encouraging broader participation of drivers in Discount Express services has the potential to expand the accessible demand pool and improve matching efficiency, but often at the cost of reduced profit margins. This study aims to dynamically manage drivers' acceptance of Discount Express from the perspective of an individual platform. The lack of historical data under the new business model necessitates online learning. However, early-stage exploration through trial and error can be costly in practice, highlighting the need for reliable early-stage performance in real-world deployment. To address these challenges, this study formulates the decision regarding the proportion of drivers accepting discount orders as a continuous control task. In response to the high stochasticity and the opaque matching mechanisms employed by third-party integrator, we propose an innovative policy-improved deep deterministic policy gradient (pi-DDPG) framework. The proposed framework incorporates a refiner module to boost policy performance during the early training phase. A customized simulator based on a real-world dataset is developed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed pi-DDPG. Numerical experiments demonstrate that pi-DDPG achieves superior learning efficiency and significantly reduces early-stage training losses, enhancing its applicability to practical ride-hailing scenarios.


Towards Open-World Human Action Segmentation Using Graph Convolutional Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human-object interaction segmentation is a fundamental task of daily activity understanding, which plays a crucial role in applications such as assistive robotics, healthcare, and autonomous systems. Most existing learning-based methods excel in closed-world action segmentation, they struggle to generalize to open-world scenarios where novel actions emerge. Collecting exhaustive action categories for training is impractical due to the dynamic diversity of human activities, necessitating models that detect and segment out-of-distribution actions without manual annotation. To address this issue, we formally define the open-world action segmentation problem and propose a structured framework for detecting and segmenting unseen actions. Our framework introduces three key innovations: 1) an Enhanced Pyramid Graph Convolutional Network (EPGCN) with a novel decoder module for robust spatiotemporal feature upsampling. 2) Mixup-based training to synthesize out-of-distribution data, eliminating reliance on manual annotations. 3) A novel Temporal Clustering loss that groups in-distribution actions while distancing out-of-distribution samples. We evaluate our framework on two challenging human-object interaction recognition datasets: Bimanual Actions and 2 Hands and Object (H2O) datasets. Experimental results demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art action segmentation models across multiple open-set evaluation metrics, achieving 16.9% and 34.6% relative gains in open-set segmentation (F1@50) and out-of-distribution detection performances (AUROC), respectively. Additionally, we conduct an in-depth ablation study to assess the impact of each proposed component, identifying the optimal framework configuration for open-world action segmentation.


Achieving Trustworthy Real-Time Decision Support Systems with Low-Latency Interpretable AI Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper investigates real-time decision support systems that leverage low-latency AI models, bringing together recent progress in holistic AI-driven decision tools, integration with Edge-IoT technologies, and approaches for effective human-AI teamwork. It looks into how large language models can assist decision-making, especially when resources are limited. The research also examines the effects of technical developments such as DeLLMa, methods for compressing models, and improvements for analytics on edge devices, while also addressing issues like limited resources and the need for adaptable frameworks. Through a detailed review, the paper offers practical perspectives on development strategies and areas of application, adding to the field by pointing out opportunities for more efficient and flexible AI-supported systems. The conclusions set the stage for future breakthroughs in this fast-changing area, highlighting how AI can reshape real-time decision support.


AI Through the Human Lens: Investigating Cognitive Theories in Machine Psychology

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate whether Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit human-like cognitive patterns under four established frameworks from psychology: Thematic Apperception Test (TAT), Framing Bias, Moral Foundations Theory (MFT), and Cognitive Dissonance. We evaluated several proprietary and open-source models using structured prompts and automated scoring. Our findings reveal that these models often produce coherent narratives, show susceptibility to positive framing, exhibit moral judgments aligned with Liberty/Oppression concerns, and demonstrate self-contradictions tempered by extensive rationalization. Such behaviors mirror human cognitive tendencies yet are shaped by their training data and alignment methods. We discuss the implications for AI transparency, ethical deployment, and future work that bridges cognitive psychology and AI safety


Better Language Model Inversion by Compactly Representing Next-Token Distributions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Language model inversion seeks to recover hidden prompts using only language model outputs. This capability has implications for security and accountability in language model deployments, such as leaking private information from an API-protected language model's system message. We propose a new method -- prompt inversion from logprob sequences (PILS) -- that recovers hidden prompts by gleaning clues from the model's next-token probabilities over the course of multiple generation steps. Our method is enabled by a key insight: The vector-valued outputs of a language model occupy a low-dimensional subspace. This enables us to losslessly compress the full next-token probability distribution over multiple generation steps using a linear map, allowing more output information to be used for inversion. Our approach yields massive gains over previous state-of-the-art methods for recovering hidden prompts, achieving 2--3.5 times higher exact recovery rates across test sets, in one case increasing the recovery rate from 17% to 60%. Our method also exhibits surprisingly good generalization behavior; for instance, an inverter trained on 16 generations steps gets 5--27 points higher prompt recovery when we increase the number of steps to 32 at test time. Furthermore, we demonstrate strong performance of our method on the more challenging task of recovering hidden system messages. We also analyze the role of verbatim repetition in prompt recovery and propose a new method for cross-family model transfer for logit-based inverters. Our findings show that next-token probabilities are a considerably more vulnerable attack surface for inversion attacks than previously known.


Aligning ASR Evaluation with Human and LLM Judgments: Intelligibility Metrics Using Phonetic, Semantic, and NLI Approaches

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional ASR metrics like WER and CER fail to capture intelligibility, especially for dysarthric and dysphonic speech, where semantic alignment matters more than exact word matches. ASR systems struggle with these speech types, often producing errors like phoneme repetitions and imprecise consonants, yet the meaning remains clear to human listeners. We identify two key challenges: (1) Existing metrics do not adequately reflect intelligibility, and (2) while LLMs can refine ASR output, their effectiveness in correcting ASR transcripts of dysarthric speech remains underexplored. To address this, we propose a novel metric integrating Natural Language Inference (NLI) scores, semantic similarity, and phonetic similarity. Our ASR evaluation metric achieves a 0.890 correlation with human judgments on Speech Accessibility Project data, surpassing traditional methods and emphasizing the need to prioritize intelligibility over error-based measures.


T-SHRED: Symbolic Regression for Regularization and Model Discovery with Transformer Shallow Recurrent Decoders

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

SHallow REcurrent Decoders (SHRED) are effective for system identification and forecasting from sparse sensor measurements. Such models are light-weight and computationally efficient, allowing them to be trained on consumer laptops. SHRED-based models rely on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and a simple Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) for the temporal encoding and spatial decoding respectively. Despite the relatively simple structure of SHRED, they are able to predict chaotic dynamical systems on different physical, spatial, and temporal scales directly from a sparse set of sensor measurements. In this work, we modify SHRED by leveraging transformers (T-SHRED) embedded with symbolic regression for the temporal encoding, circumventing auto-regressive long-term forecasting for physical data. This is achieved through a new sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) attention mechanism into T-SHRED to impose sparsity regularization on the latent space, which also allows for immediate symbolic interpretation. Symbolic regression improves model interpretability by learning and regularizing the dynamics of the latent space during training. We analyze the performance of T-SHRED on three different dynamical systems ranging from low-data to high-data regimes.