Do You Feel the AGI Yet? According to some predictions, 2026 is the year that an all-powerful AI will arrive. H undreds of billions of dollars have been poured into the AI industry in pursuit of a loosely defined goal: artificial general intelligence, a system powerful enough to perform at least as well as a human at any task that involves thinking. Will this be the year it finally arrives? Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and xAI CEO Elon Musk think so.

A.I.-related psychosis has cost people their marriages, life savings, and grip on reality. Last August, Adam Thomas found himself wandering the dunes of Christmas Valley, Oregon, after a chatbot kept suggesting he mystically "follow the pattern" of his own consciousness. Thomas was running on very little sleep--he'd been talking to his chatbot around the clock for months by that point, asking it to help improve his life. Instead it sent him on empty assignments, like meandering the vacuous desert sprawl. He'd lost his job as a funeral director and was living out of a van, draining his savings, and now he found himself stranded in the desert. When he woke up outside on a stranger's futon with no money to his name, he knew he'd hit rock bottom. "I wasn't aware of the dangers at the time, and I thought that the A.I. had statistical analysis abilities that would allow it to assist me if I opened up about my life," Thomas told me.

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Large language models (LLMs) process and predict sequences containing text to answer questions, and address tasks including document summarization, providing recommendations, writing software and solving quantitative problems. We provide a mathematical framework for LLMs by describing the encoding of text sequences into sequences of tokens, defining the architecture for next-token prediction models, explaining how these models are learned from data, and demonstrating how they are deployed to address a variety of tasks. The mathematical sophistication required to understand this material is not high, and relies on straightforward ideas from information theory, probability and optimization. Nonetheless, the combination of ideas resting on these different components from the mathematical sciences yields a complex algorithmic structure; and this algorithmic structure has demonstrated remarkable empirical successes. The mathematical framework established here provides a platform from which it is possible to formulate and address questions concerning the accuracy, efficiency and robustness of the algorithms that constitute LLMs. The framework also suggests directions for development of modified and new methodologies.

Large-scale AI evaluation increasingly relies on aggregating binary judgments from $K$ annotators, including LLMs used as judges. Most classical methods, e.g., Dawid-Skene or (weighted) majority voting, assume annotators are conditionally independent given the true label $Y\in\{0,1\}$, an assumption often violated by LLM judges due to shared data, architectures, prompts, and failure modes. Ignoring such dependencies can yield miscalibrated posteriors and even confidently incorrect predictions. We study label aggregation through a hierarchy of dependence-aware models based on Ising graphical models and latent factors. For class-dependent Ising models, the Bayes log-odds is generally quadratic in votes; for class-independent couplings, it reduces to a linear weighted vote with correlation-adjusted parameters. We present finite-$K$ examples showing that methods based on conditional independence can flip the Bayes label despite matching per-annotator marginals. We prove separation results demonstrating that these methods remain strictly suboptimal as the number of judges grows, incurring nonvanishing excess risk under latent factors. Finally, we evaluate the proposed method on three real-world datasets, demonstrating improved performance over the classical baselines.

Humans learn efficiently from their environment by engaging multiple interacting neural systems that support distinct yet complementary forms of control, including model-based (goal-directed) planning, model-free (habitual) responding, and episodic memory-based learning. Model-based mechanisms compute prospective action values using an internal model of the environment, supporting flexible but computationally costly planning; model-free mechanisms cache value estimates and build heuristics that enable fast, efficient habitual responding; and memory-based mechanisms allow rapid adaptation from individual experience. In this work, we aim to elucidate the computational principles underlying this biological efficiency and translate them into a sampling algorithm for scalable Bayesian inference through effective exploration of the posterior distribution. More specifically, our proposed algorithm comprises three components: a model-based module that uses the target distribution for guided but computationally slow sampling; a model-free module that uses previous samples to learn patterns in the parameter space, enabling fast, reflexive sampling without directly evaluating the expensive target distribution; and an episodic-control module that supports rapid sampling by recalling specific past events (i.e., samples). We show that this approach advances Bayesian methods and facilitates their application to large-scale statistical machine learning problems. In particular, we apply our proposed framework to Bayesian deep learning, with an emphasis on proper and principled uncertainty quantification.

Advances in generative modeling have recently been adapted to tabular data containing discrete and continuous features. However, generating mixed-type features that combine discrete states with an otherwise continuous distribution in a single feature remains challenging. We advance the state-of-the-art in diffusion models for tabular data with a cascaded approach. We first generate a low-resolution version of a tabular data row, that is, the collection of the purely categorical features and a coarse categorical representation of numerical features. Next, this information is leveraged in the high-resolution flow matching model via a novel guided conditional probability path and data-dependent coupling. The low-resolution representation of numerical features explicitly accounts for discrete outcomes, such as missing or inflated values, and therewith enables a more faithful generation of mixed-type features. We formally prove that this cascade tightens the transport cost bound. The results indicate that our model generates significantly more realistic samples and captures distributional details more accurately, for example, the detection score increases by 40%.

Perplexity -- a function measuring a model's overall level of "surprise" when encountering a particular output -- has gained significant traction in recent years, both as a loss function and as a simple-to-compute metric of model quality. Prior studies have pointed out several limitations of perplexity, often from an empirical manner. Here we leverage recent results on Transformer continuity to show in a rigorous manner how perplexity may be an unsuitable metric for model selection. Specifically, we prove that, if there is any sequence that a compact decoder-only Transformer model predicts accurately and confidently -- a necessary pre-requisite for strong generalisation -- it must imply existence of another sequence with very low perplexity, but not predicted correctly by that same model. Further, by analytically studying iso-perplexity plots, we find that perplexity will not always select for the more accurate model -- rather, any increase in model confidence must be accompanied by a commensurate rise in accuracy for the new model to be selected.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) -- a training paradigm in which models learn useful representations from unlabeled data by exploiting the data itself as a source of supervision -- has emerged as a foundational component of the recent success of transformer architectures. By avoiding the need for manual annotations, SSL retains many of the benefits traditionally associated with supervised learning while avoiding reliance on labeled data. Consequently, SSL is widely adopted as a pretraining paradigm for learning general-purpose representations that substantially accelerate the optimization of downstream tasks, especially in data-scarce settings. A canonical example of a self-supervised learning task is masked language modeling (MLM), in which a neural network is trained to predict masked tokens in text using the remaining tokens as contextual information (Devlin et al., 2019a; Howard and Ruder, 2018; Radford et al., 2018; Brown et al., 2020; OpenAI, 2024). For example, given the sentence "The capital of France is Paris", a typical MLM task would be to teach the model to infer that we are speaking about the capital of a country from the context "France" and "Paris" from the masked sentence "The [MASK] of France is Paris".

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