Subset selection, which is the task of finding a small subset of representative items from a large ground set, finds numerous applications in different areas. Sequential data, including time-series and ordered data, contain important structural relationships among items, imposed by underlying dynamic models of data, that should play a vital role in the selection of representatives. However, nearly all existing subset selection techniques ignore underlying dynamics of data and treat items independently, leading to incompatible sets of representatives. In this paper, we develop a new framework for sequential subset selection that finds a set of representatives compatible with the dynamic models of data. To do so, we equip items with transition dynamic models and pose the problem as an integer binary optimization over assignments of sequential items to representatives, that leads to high encoding, diversity and transition potentials. Our formulation generalizes the well-known facility location objective to deal with sequential data, incorporating transition dynamics among facilities. As the proposed formulation is non-convex, we derive a max-sum message passing algorithm to solve the problem efficiently. Experiments on synthetic and real data, including instructional video summarization, show that our sequential subset selection framework not only achieves better encoding and diversity than the state of the art, but also successfully incorporates dynamics of data, leading to compatible representatives.

Markov random fields are a popular model for high-dimensional probability distributions. Over the years, many mathematical, statistical and algorithmic problems on them have been studied. Until recently, the only known algorithms for provably learning them relied on exhaustive search, correlation decay or various incoherence assumptions. Bresler [4] gave an algorithm for learning general Ising models on bounded degree graphs. His approach was based on a structural result about mutual information in Ising models. Here we take a more conceptual approach to proving lower bounds on the mutual information.

Learning cooperative policies for multi-agent systems is often challenged by partial observability and a lack of coordination. In some settings, the structure of a problem allows a distributed solution with limited communication. Here, we consider a scenario where no communication is available, and instead we learn local policies for all agents that collectively mimic the solution to a centralized multi-agent static optimization problem. Our main contribution is an information theoretic framework based on rate distortion theory which facilitates analysis of how well the resulting fully decentralized policies are able to reconstruct the optimal solution. Moreover, this framework provides a natural extension that addresses which nodes an agent should communicate with to improve the performance of its individual policy.

Designing optimal treatment plans for patients with comorbidities requires accurate cause-specific mortality prognosis. Motivated by the recent availability of linked electronic health records, we develop a nonparametric Bayesian model for survival analysis with competing risks, which can be used for jointly assessing a patient's risk of multiple (competing) adverse outcomes. The model views a patient's survival times with respect to the competing risks as the outputs of a deep multi-task Gaussian process (DMGP), the inputs to which are the patients' covariates. Unlike parametric survival analysis methods based on Cox and Weibull models, our model uses DMGPs to capture complex non-linear interactions between the patients' covariates and cause-specific survival times, thereby learning flexible patient-specific and cause-specific survival curves, all in a data-driven fashion without explicit parametric assumptions on the hazard rates. We propose a variational inference algorithm that is capable of learning the model parameters from time-to-event data while handling right censoring. Experiments on synthetic and real data show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art survival models.

Bayesian models are established as one of the main successful paradigms for complex problems in machine learning. To handle intractable inference, research in this area has developed new approximation methods that are fast and effective. However, theoretical analysis of the performance of such approximations is not well developed. The paper furthers such analysis by providing bounds on the excess risk of variational inference algorithms and related regularized loss minimization algorithms for a large class of latent variable models with Gaussian latent variables. We strengthen previous results for variational algorithms by showing that they are competitive with any point-estimate predictor. Unlike previous work, we provide bounds on the risk of the Bayesian predictor and not just the risk of the Gibbs predictor for the same approximate posterior. The bounds are applied in complex models including sparse Gaussian processes and correlated topic models. Theoretical results are complemented by identifying novel approximations to the Bayesian objective that attempt to minimize the risk directly. An empirical evaluation compares the variational and new algorithms shedding further light on their performance.

We propose a generalized Gibbs sampler algorithm for obtaining samples approximately distributed from a high-dimensional Gaussian distribution. Similarly to Hogwild methods, our approach does not target the original Gaussian distribution of interest, but an approximation to it. Contrary to Hogwild methods, a single parameter allows us to trade bias for variance. We show empirically that our method is very flexible and performs well compared to Hogwild-type algorithms.

We consider the problem of accurately estimating the reliability of workers based on noisy labels they provide, which is a fundamental question in crowdsourcing. We propose a novel lower bound on the minimax estimation error which applies to any estimation procedure. We further propose Triangular Estimation (TE), an algorithm for estimating the reliability of workers. TE has low complexity, may be implemented in a streaming setting when labels are provided by workers in real time, and does not rely on an iterative procedure. We prove that TE is minimax optimal and matches our lower bound. We conclude by assessing the performance of TE and other state-of-the-art algorithms on both synthetic and real-world data.

The simple closed-form screening rule is a necessary and sufficient condition for exactly recovering the blockwise structure of a solution under any given regularization parameters. With enough sparsity, the screening rule can be combined with various optimization procedures to deliver solutions efficiently in practice. The screening rule is especially suitable for large-scale exploratory data analysis, where the number of variables in the dataset can be thousands while we are only interested in the relationship among a handful of variables within moderate-size clusters for interpretability. Experimental results on various datasets demonstrate the efficiency and insights gained from the introduction of the screening rule.

We introduce and analyze Discriminative State-Space Models for forecasting nonstationary time series. We provide data-dependent generalization guarantees for learning these models based on the recently introduced notion of discrepancy. We provide an in-depth analysis of the complexity of such models. We also study the generalization guarantees for several structural risk minimization approaches to this problem and provide an efficient implementation for one of them which is based on a convex objective.

Implicit probabilistic models are a flexible class of models defined by a simulation process for data. They form the basis for theories which encompass our understanding of the physical world. Despite this fundamental nature, the use of implicit models remains limited due to challenges in specifying complex latent structure in them, and in performing inferences in such models with large data sets.