Bayesian inference in state-space models is challenging due to high-dimensional state trajectories. A viable approach is particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC), combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo to form exact approximations'' to otherwise-intractable MCMC methods. The performance of the approximation is limited to that of the exact method. We focus on particle Gibbs (PG) and particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling (PGAS), improving their performance beyond that of the ideal Gibbs sampler (which they approximate) by marginalizing out one or more parameters. This is possible when the parameter(s) has a conjugate prior relationship with the complete data likelihood.

Graph-based anomaly detection is pivotal in diverse security applications, such as fraud detection in transaction networks and intrusion detection for network traffic. Standard approaches, including Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), often struggle to generalize across shifting data distributions. Meanwhile, real-world domain knowledge is more stable and a common existing component of real-world detection strategies. To explicitly integrate such knowledge into data-driven models such as GCNs, we propose KnowGraph, which integrates domain knowledge with data-driven learning for enhanced graph-based anomaly detection. KnowGraph comprises two principal components: (1) a statistical learning component that utilizes a main model for the overarching detection task, augmented by multiple specialized knowledge models that predict domain-specific semantic entities; (2) a reasoning component that employs probabilistic graphical models to execute logical inferences based on model outputs, encoding domain knowledge through weighted first-order logic formulas. Extensive experiments on these large-scale real-world datasets show that KnowGraph consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both transductive and inductive settings, achieving substantial gains in average precision when generalizing to completely unseen test graphs. Further ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed reasoning component in improving detection performance, especially under extreme class imbalance. These results highlight the potential of integrating domain knowledge into data-driven models for high-stakes, graph-based security applications.

Deep Generative Models (DGMs) have rapidly advanced in recent years, becoming essential tools in various fields due to their ability to learn complex data distributions and generate synthetic data. Their importance in transportation research is increasingly recognized, particularly for applications like traffic data generation, prediction, and feature extraction. This paper offers a comprehensive introduction and tutorial on DGMs, with a focus on their applications in transportation. It begins with an overview of generative models, followed by detailed explanations of fundamental models, a systematic review of the literature, and practical tutorial code to aid implementation. The paper also discusses current challenges and opportunities, highlighting how these models can be effectively utilized and further developed in transportation research. This paper serves as a valuable reference, guiding researchers and practitioners from foundational knowledge to advanced applications of DGMs in transportation research.

In recent times, a considerable number of research studies have been carried out to address the issue of Missing Value Imputation (MVI). MVI aims to provide a primary solution for datasets that have one or more missing attribute values. The advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) drive the development of new and improved machine learning (ML) algorithms and methods. The advancements in ML have opened up significant opportunities for effectively imputing these missing values. The main objective of this article is to conduct a comprehensive and rigorous review, as well as analysis, of the state-of-the-art ML applications in MVI methods. This analysis seeks to enhance researchers' understanding of the subject and facilitate the development of robust and impactful interventions in data preprocessing for Data Analytics. The review is performed following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) technique. More than 100 articles published between 2014 and 2023 are critically reviewed, considering the methods and findings. Furthermore, the latest literature is examined to scrutinize the trends in MVI methods and their evaluation. The accomplishments and limitations of the existing literature are discussed in detail. The survey concludes by identifying the current gaps in research and providing suggestions for future research directions and emerging trends in related fields of interest.

Restricted Boltzmann Machines are a class of undirected graphical models that play a key role in deep learning and unsupervised learning. In this study, we prove a phase transition phenomenon in the mixing time of the Gibbs sampler for a one-parameter Restricted Boltzmann Machine. Specifically, the mixing time varies logarithmically, polynomially, and exponentially with the number of vertices depending on whether the parameter $c$ is above, equal to, or below a critical value $c_\star\approx-5.87$. A key insight from our analysis is the link between the Gibbs sampler and a dynamical system, which we utilize to quantify the former based on the behavior of the latter. To study the critical case $c= c_\star$, we develop a new isoperimetric inequality for the sampler's stationary distribution by showing that the distribution is nearly log-concave.

Hierarchical policies enable strong performance in many sequential decision-making problems, such as those with high-dimensional action spaces, those requiring long-horizon planning, and settings with sparse rewards. However, learning hierarchical policies from static offline datasets presents a significant challenge. Crucially, actions taken by higher-level policies may not be directly observable within hierarchical controllers, and the offline dataset might have been generated using a different policy structure, hindering the use of standard offline learning algorithms. In this work, we propose OHIO: a framework for offline reinforcement learning (RL) of hierarchical policies. Our framework leverages knowledge of the policy structure to solve the inverse problem, recovering the unobservable high-level actions that likely generated the observed data under our hierarchical policy. This approach constructs a dataset suitable for off-the-shelf offline training. We demonstrate our framework on robotic and network optimization problems and show that it substantially outperforms end-to-end RL methods and improves robustness. We investigate a variety of instantiations of our framework, both in direct deployment of policies trained offline and when online fine-tuning is performed.

A crucial capability of Machine Learning models in real-world applications is the ability to continuously learn new tasks. This adaptability allows them to respond to potentially inevitable shifts in the data-generating distribution over time. However, in Continual Learning (CL) settings, models often struggle to balance learning new tasks (plasticity) with retaining previous knowledge (memory stability). Consequently, they are susceptible to Catastrophic Forgetting, which degrades performance and undermines the reliability of deployed systems. Variational Continual Learning methods tackle this challenge by employing a learning objective that recursively updates the posterior distribution and enforces it to stay close to the latest posterior estimate. Nonetheless, we argue that these methods may be ineffective due to compounding approximation errors over successive recursions. To mitigate this, we propose new learning objectives that integrate the regularization effects of multiple previous posterior estimations, preventing individual errors from dominating future posterior updates and compounding over time. We reveal insightful connections between these objectives and Temporal-Difference methods, a popular learning mechanism in Reinforcement Learning and Neuroscience. We evaluate the proposed objectives on challenging versions of popular CL benchmarks, demonstrating that they outperform standard Variational CL methods and non-variational baselines, effectively alleviating Catastrophic Forgetting.

Solar irradiance forecasts can be dynamic and unreliable due to changing weather conditions. Near the Arctic circle, this also translates into a distinct set of further challenges. This work is forecasting solar irradiance with Norwegian data using variations of Long-Short-Term Memory units (LSTMs). In order to gain more trustworthiness of results, the probabilistic approaches Quantile Regression (QR) and Maximum Likelihood (MLE) are optimized on top of the LSTMs, providing measures of uncertainty for the results. MLE is further extended by using a Johnson's SU distribution, a Johnson's SB distribution, and a Weibull distribution in addition to a normal Gaussian to model parameters. Contrary to a Gaussian, Weibull, Johnson's SU and Johnson's SB can return skewed distributions, enabling it to fit the non-normal solar irradiance distribution more optimally. The LSTMs are compared against each other, a simple Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), and a smart-persistence estimator. The proposed LSTMs are found to be more accurate than smart persistence and the MLP for a multi-horizon, day-ahead (36 hours) forecast. The deterministic LSTM showed better root mean squared error (RMSE), but worse mean absolute error (MAE) than a MLE with Johnson's SB distribution. Probabilistic uncertainty estimation is shown to fit relatively well across the distribution of observed irradiance. While QR shows better uncertainty estimation calibration, MLE with Johnson's SB, Johnson's SU, or Gaussian show better performance in the other metrics employed. Optimizing and comparing the models against each other reveals a seemingly inherent trade-off between point-prediction and uncertainty estimation calibration.

Symmetries have proven useful in machine learning models, improving generalisation and overall performance. At the same time, recent advancements in learning dynamical systems rely on modelling the underlying Hamiltonian to guarantee the conservation of energy. These approaches can be connected via a seminal result in mathematical physics: Noether's theorem, which states that symmetries in a dynamical system correspond to conserved quantities. This work uses Noether's theorem to parameterise symmetries as learnable conserved quantities. We then allow conserved quantities and associated symmetries to be learned directly from train data through approximate Bayesian model selection, jointly with the regular training procedure. As training objective, we derive a variational lower bound to the marginal likelihood. The objective automatically embodies an Occam's Razor effect that avoids collapse of conservation laws to the trivial constant, without the need to manually add and tune additional regularisers. We demonstrate a proof-ofprinciple on n-harmonic oscillators and n-body systems. We find that our method correctly identifies the correct conserved quantities and U(n) and SE(n) symmetry groups, improving overall performance and predictive accuracy on test data.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is the preferred framework for estimating parameters of intractable models in science and engineering. A significant challenge in this context is the large computational cost of simulating data from complex models, and the fact that this cost often depends on parameter values. We therefore propose \textit{cost-aware SBI methods} which can significantly reduce the cost of existing sampling-based SBI methods, such as neural SBI and approximate Bayesian computation. This is achieved through a combination of rejection and self-normalised importance sampling, which significantly reduces the number of expensive simulations needed. Our approach is studied extensively on models from epidemiology to telecommunications engineering, where we obtain significant reductions in the overall cost of inference.