Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the standard for evaluating the effectiveness of clinical interventions. To address the limitations of RCTs on real-world populations, we developed a methodology that uses a large observational electronic health record (EHR) dataset. Principles of regression discontinuity (rd) were used to derive randomized data subsets to test expert-driven interventions using dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) do-operations. This combined method was applied to a chronic kidney disease (CKD) cohort of more than two million individuals and used to understand the associational and causal relationships of CKD variables with respect to a surrogate outcome of >=40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The associational and causal analyses depicted similar findings across DBNs from two independent healthcare systems. The associational analysis showed that the most influential variables were eGFR, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and pulse pressure, whereas the causal analysis showed eGFR as the most influential variable, followed by modifiable factors such as medications that may impact kidney function over time. This methodology demonstrates how real-world EHR data can be used to provide population-level insights to inform improved healthcare delivery.

Statistical watermarking techniques are well-established for sequentially decoded language models (LMs). However, these techniques cannot be directly applied to order-agnostic LMs, as the tokens in order-agnostic LMs are not generated sequentially. In this work, we introduce Pattern-mark, a pattern-based watermarking framework specifically designed for order-agnostic LMs. We develop a Markov-chain-based watermark generator that produces watermark key sequences with high-frequency key patterns. Correspondingly, we propose a statistical pattern-based detection algorithm that recovers the key sequence during detection and conducts statistical tests based on the count of high-frequency patterns. Our extensive evaluations on order-agnostic LMs, such as ProteinMPNN and CMLM, demonstrate Pattern-mark's enhanced detection efficiency, generation quality, and robustness, positioning it as a superior watermarking technique for order-agnostic LMs.

Autonomy via agents using large language models (LLMs) for personalized, standardized tasks boosts human efficiency. Automating web tasks (like booking hotels within a budget) is increasingly sought after. Fulfilling practical needs, the web agent also serves as an important proof-of-concept example for various agent grounding scenarios, with its success promising advancements in many future applications. Prior research often handcrafts web agent strategies (e.g., prompting templates, multi-agent systems, search methods, etc.) and the corresponding in-context examples, which may not generalize well across all real-world scenarios. On the other hand, there has been limited study on the misalignment between a web agent's observation/action representation and the pre-training data of the LLM it's based on. This discrepancy is especially notable when LLMs are primarily trained for language completion rather than tasks involving embodied navigation actions and symbolic web elements. Our study enhances an LLM-based web agent by simply refining its observation and action space to better align with the LLM's capabilities. This approach enables our base agent to significantly outperform previous methods on a wide variety of web tasks. Specifically, on WebArena, a benchmark featuring general-purpose web interaction tasks, our agent AgentOccam surpasses the previous state-of-the-art and concurrent work by 9.8 (+29.4%) and 5.9 (+15.8%) absolute points respectively, and boosts the success rate by 26.6 points (+161%) over similar plain web agents with its observation and action space alignment. We achieve this without using in-context examples, new agent roles, online feedback or search strategies. AgentOccam's simple design highlights LLMs' impressive zero-shot performance on web tasks, and underlines the critical role of carefully tuning observation and action spaces for LLM-based agents.

Natural Language Processing (NLP) is a vital computational method for addressing language processing, analysis, and generation. NLP tasks form the core of many daily applications, from automatic text correction to speech recognition. While significant research has focused on NLP tasks for the English language, less attention has been given to Modern Standard Arabic and Dialectal Arabic. Globalization has also contributed to the rise of Code-Switching (CS), where speakers mix languages within conversations and even within individual words (intra-word CS). This is especially common in Arab countries, where people often switch between dialects or between dialects and a foreign language they master. CS between Arabic and English is frequent in Egypt, especially on social media. Consequently, a significant amount of code-switched content can be found online. Such code-switched data needs to be investigated and analyzed for several NLP tasks to tackle the challenges of this multilingual phenomenon and Arabic language challenges. No work has been done before for several integral NLP tasks on Arabic-English CS data. In this work, we focus on the Named Entity Recognition (NER) task and other tasks that help propose a solution for the NER task on CS data, e.g., Language Identification. This work addresses this gap by proposing and applying state-of-the-art techniques for Modern Standard Arabic and Arabic-English NER. We have created the first annotated CS Arabic-English corpus for the NER task. Also, we apply two enhancement techniques to improve the NER tagger on CS data using CS contextual embeddings and data augmentation techniques. All methods showed improvements in the performance of the NER taggers on CS data. Finally, we propose several intra-word language identification approaches to determine the language type of a mixed text and identify whether it is a named entity or not.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently gained much attention in building autonomous agents. However, the performance of current LLM-based web agents in long-horizon tasks is far from optimal, often yielding errors such as repeatedly buying a non-refundable flight ticket. By contrast, humans can avoid such an irreversible mistake, as we have an awareness of the potential outcomes (e.g., losing money) of our actions, also known as the "world model". Motivated by this, our study first starts with preliminary analyses, confirming the absence of world models in current LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Claude-3.5-Sonnet, etc.). Then, we present a World-model-augmented (WMA) web agent, which simulates the outcomes of its actions for better decision-making. To overcome the challenges in training LLMs as world models predicting next observations, such as repeated elements across observations and long HTML inputs, we propose a transition-focused observation abstraction, where the prediction objectives are free-form natural language descriptions exclusively highlighting important state differences between time steps. Experiments on WebArena and Mind2Web show that our world models improve agents' policy selection without training and demonstrate our agents' cost- and time-efficiency compared to recent tree-search-based agents.

The transferable belief model, as a semantic interpretation of Dempster-Shafer theory, enables agents to perform reasoning and decision making in imprecise and incomplete environments. The model offers distinct semantics for handling unreliable testimonies, allowing for a more reasonable and general process of belief transfer compared to the Bayesian approach. However, because both the belief masses and the structure of focal sets must be considered when updating belief functions-leading to extra computational complexity during reasoning-the transferable belief model has gradually lost favor among researchers in recent developments. In this paper, we implement the transferable belief model on quantum circuits and demonstrate that belief functions offer a more concise and effective alternative to Bayesian approaches within the quantum computing framework. Furthermore, leveraging the unique characteristics of quantum computing, we propose several novel belief transfer approaches. More broadly, this paper introduces a new perspective on basic information representation for quantum AI models, suggesting that belief functions are more suitable than Bayesian approach for handling uncertainty on quantum circuits.

The generalization error (risk) of a supervised statistical learning algorithm quantifies its prediction ability on previously unseen data. Inspired by exponential tilting, Li et al. (2021) proposed the tilted empirical risk as a non-linear risk metric for machine learning applications such as classification and regression problems. In this work, we examine the generalization error of the tilted empirical risk. In particular, we provide uniform and information-theoretic bounds on the tilted generalization error, defined as the difference between the population risk and the tilted empirical risk, with a convergence rate of $O(1/\sqrt{n})$ where $n$ is the number of training samples. Furthermore, we study the solution to the KL-regularized expected tilted empirical risk minimization problem and derive an upper bound on the expected tilted generalization error with a convergence rate of $O(1/n)$.

A critical bottleneck for scientific progress is the costly nature of computer simulations for complex systems. Surrogate models provide an appealing solution: such models are trained on simulator evaluations, then used to emulate and quantify uncertainty on the expensive simulator at unexplored inputs. In many applications, one often has available data on related systems. For example, in designing a new jet turbine, there may be existing studies on turbines with similar configurations. A key question is how information from such "source" systems can be transferred for effective surrogate training on the "target" system of interest. We thus propose a new LOcal transfer Learning Gaussian Process (LOL-GP) model, which leverages a carefully-designed Gaussian process to transfer such information for surrogate modeling. The key novelty of the LOL-GP is a latent regularization model, which identifies regions where transfer should be performed and regions where it should be avoided. This "local transfer" property is desirable in scientific systems: at certain parameters, such systems may behave similarly and thus transfer is beneficial; at other parameters, they may behave differently and thus transfer is detrimental. By accounting for local transfer, the LOL-GP can rectify a critical limitation of "negative transfer" in existing transfer learning models, where the transfer of information worsens predictive performance. We derive a Gibbs sampling algorithm for efficient posterior predictive sampling on the LOL-GP, for both the multi-source and multi-fidelity transfer settings. We then show, via a suite of numerical experiments and an application for jet turbine design, the improved surrogate performance of the LOL-GP over existing methods.

The primary aim of this paper is to comprehend, assess, and analyze the role, relevance, and efficiency of machine learning models in predicting heart disease risks using clinical data. While the importance of heart disease risk prediction cannot be overstated, the application of machine learning (ML) in identifying and evaluating the impact of various features on the classification of patients with and without heart disease, as well as in generating a reliable clinical dataset, is equally significant. This study relies primarily on cross-sectional clinical data. The ML approach is designed to enhance the consideration of various clinical features in the heart disease prognosis process. Some features emerge as strong predictors, adding significant value. The paper evaluates seven ML classifiers: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, Naive Bayes, k-Nearest Neighbors, Neural Networks, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The performance of each model is assessed based on accuracy metrics. Notably, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) demonstrates the highest accuracy at 91.51%, confirming its superiority among the evaluated models in terms of predictive capability. The overall findings of this research highlight the advantages of advanced computational methodologies in the evaluation, prediction, improvement, and management of cardiovascular risks. In other words, the strong performance of the SVM model illustrates its applicability and value in clinical settings, paving the way for further advancements in personalized medicine and healthcare.

We present a novel Bayesian tomography approach for Coherence Imaging Spectroscopy (CIS) that simultaneously reconstructs ion temperature and velocity distributions in plasmas. Utilizing nonlinear Gaussian Process Tomography (GPT) with the Laplace approximation, we model prior distributions of log-emissivity, temperature, and velocity as Gaussian processes. This framework rigorously incorporates nonlinear effects and temperature dependencies often neglected in conventional CIS tomography, enabling robust reconstruction even in the region of high temperature and velocity. By applying a log-Gaussian process, we also address issues like velocity divergence in low-emissivity regions. Validated with phantom simulations and experimental data from the RT-1 device, our method reveals detailed spatial structures of ion temperature and toroidal ion flow characteristic of magnetospheric plasma. This work significantly broadens the scope of CIS tomography, offering a robust tool for plasma diagnostics and facilitating integration with complementary measurement techniques.