Understanding how humans and animals learn about statistical regularities in stable and volatile environments, and utilize these regularities to make predictions and decisions, is an important problem in neuroscience and psychology. Using a Bayesian modeling framework, specifically the Dynamic Belief Model (DBM), it has previously been shown that humans tend to make the {\it default} assumption that environmental statistics undergo abrupt, unsignaled changes, even when environmental statistics are actually stable. Because exact Bayesian inference in this setting, an example of switching state space models, is computationally intense, a number of approximately Bayesian and heuristic algorithms have been proposed to account for learning/prediction in the brain. Here, we examine a neurally plausible algorithm, a special case of leaky integration dynamics we denote as EXP (for exponential filtering), that is significantly simpler than all previously suggested algorithms except for the delta-learning rule, and which far outperforms the delta rule in approximating Bayesian prediction performance. We derive the theoretical relationship between DBM and EXP, and show that EXP gains computational efficiency by foregoing the representation of inferential uncertainty (as does the delta rule), but that it nevertheless achieves near-Bayesian performance due to its ability to incorporate a persistent prior influence unique to DBM and absent from the other algorithms. Furthermore, we show that EXP is comparable to DBM but better than all other models in reproducing human behavior in a visual search task, suggesting that human learning and prediction also incorporates an element of persistent prior. More broadly, our work demonstrates that when observations are information-poor, detecting changes or modulating the learning rate is both {\it difficult} and (thus) {\it unnecessary} for making Bayes-optimal predictions.

Interactive partially observable Markov decision processes (I-POMDPs) provide a principled framework for planning and acting in a partially observable, stochastic and multi-agent environment. It extends POMDPs to multi-agent settings by including models of other agents in the state space and forming a hierarchical belief structure. In order to predict other agents' actions using I-POMDPs, we propose an approach that effectively uses Bayesian inference and sequential Monte Carlo sampling to learn others' intentional models which ascribe to them beliefs, preferences and rationality in action selection. Empirical results show that our algorithm accurately learns models of the other agent and has superior performance than methods that use subintentional models. Our approach serves as a generalized Bayesian learning algorithm that learns other agents' beliefs, strategy levels, and transition, observation and reward functions.

The most widely used technology to identify the proteins present in a complex biological sample is tandem mass spectrometry, which quickly produces a large collection of spectra representative of the peptides (i.e., protein subsequences) present in the original sample. In this work, we greatly expand the parameter learning capabilities of a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) peptide-scoring algorithm, Didea, by deriving emission distributions for which its conditional log-likelihood scoring function remains concave. We show that this class of emission distributions, called Convex Virtual Emissions (CVEs), naturally generalizes the log-sum-exp function while rendering both maximum likelihood estimation and conditional maximum likelihood estimation concave for a wide range of Bayesian networks. Utilizing CVEs in Didea allows efficient learning of a large number of parameters while ensuring global convergence, in stark contrast to Didea's previous parameter learning framework (which could only learn a single parameter using a costly grid search) and other trainable models (which only ensure convergence to local optima). The newly trained scoring function substantially outperforms the state-of-the-art in both scoring function accuracy and downstream Fisher kernel analysis. Furthermore, we significantly improve Didea's runtime performance through successive optimizations to its message passing schedule and derive explicit connections between Didea's new concave score and related MS/MS scoring functions.

Several applications of Reinforcement Learning suffer from instability due to high variance. This is especially prevalent in high dimensional domains. Regularization is a commonly used technique in machine learning to reduce variance, at the cost of introducing some bias. Most existing regularization techniques focus on spatial (perceptual) regularization. Yet in reinforcement learning, due to the nature of the Bellman equation, there is an opportunity to also exploit temporal regularization based on smoothness in value estimates over trajectories. This paper explores a class of methods for temporal regularization. We formally characterize the bias induced by this technique using Markov chain concepts. We illustrate the various characteristics of temporal regularization via a sequence of simple discrete and continuous MDPs, and show that the technique provides improvement even in high-dimensional Atari games.

We investigate the problem of learning Bayesian networks in a robust model where an $\epsilon$-fraction of the samples are adversarially corrupted. In this work, we study the fully observable discrete case where the structure of the network is given. Even in this basic setting, previous learning algorithms either run in exponential time or lose dimension-dependent factors in their error guarantees. We provide the first computationally efficient robust learning algorithm for this problem with dimension-independent error guarantees. Our algorithm has near-optimal sample complexity, runs in polynomial time, and achieves error that scales nearly-linearly with the fraction of adversarially corrupted samples. Finally, we show on both synthetic and semi-synthetic data that our algorithm performs well in practice.

Recent advances in recording technologies have allowed neuroscientists to record simultaneous spiking activity from hundreds to thousands of neurons in multiple brain regions. Such large-scale recordings pose a major challenge to existing statistical methods for neural data analysis. Here we develop highly scalable approximate inference methods for Poisson generalized linear models (GLMs) that require only a single pass over the data. Our approach relies on a recently proposed method for obtaining approximate sufficient statistics for GLMs using polynomial approximations [Huggins et al., 2017], which we adapt to the Poisson GLM setting. We focus on inference using quadratic approximations to nonlinear terms in the Poisson GLM log-likelihood with Gaussian priors, for which we derive closed-form solutions to the approximate maximum likelihood and MAP estimates, posterior distribution, and marginal likelihood. We introduce an adaptive procedure to select the polynomial approximation interval and show that the resulting method allows for efficient and accurate inference and regularization of high-dimensional parameters. We use the quadratic estimator to fit a fully-coupled Poisson GLM to spike train data recorded from 831 neurons across five regions of the mouse brain for a duration of 41 minutes, binned at 1 ms resolution. Across all neurons, this model is fit to over 2 billion spike count bins and identifies fine-timescale statistical dependencies between neurons within and across cortical and subcortical areas.

Variational Auto-Encoders (VAE) have become very popular techniques to perform inference and learning in latent variable models as they allow us to leverage the rich representational power of neural networks to obtain flexible approximations of the posterior of latent variables as well as tight evidence lower bounds (ELBO). Combined with stochastic variational inference, this provides a methodology scaling to large datasets. However, for this methodology to be practically efficient, it is necessary to obtain low-variance unbiased estimators of the ELBO and its gradients with respect to the parameters of interest. While the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has been previously suggested to achieve this [23, 26], the proposed methods require specifying reverse kernels which have a large impact on performance. Additionally, the resulting unbiased estimator of the ELBO for most MCMC kernels is typically not amenable to the reparameterization trick. We show here how to optimally select reverse kernels in this setting and, by building upon Hamiltonian Importance Sampling (HIS) [17], we obtain a scheme that provides low-variance unbiased estimators of the ELBO and its gradients using the reparameterization trick. This allows us to develop a Hamiltonian Variational Auto-Encoder (HVAE). This method can be re-interpreted as a target-informed normalizing flow [20] which, within our context, only requires a few evaluations of the gradient of the sampled likelihood and trivial Jacobian calculations at each iteration.

Stochastic gradient methods are the workhorse (algorithms) of large-scale optimization problems in machine learning, signal processing, and other computational sciences and engineering. This paper studies Markov chain gradient descent, a variant of stochastic gradient descent where the random samples are taken on the trajectory of a Markov chain. Existing results of this method assume convex objectives and a reversible Markov chain and thus have their limitations. We establish new non-ergodic convergence under wider step sizes, for nonconvex problems, and for non-reversible finite-state Markov chains. Nonconvexity makes our method applicable to broader problem classes. Non-reversible finite-state Markov chains, on the other hand, can mix substatially faster. To obtain these results, we introduce a new technique that varies the mixing levels of the Markov chains. The reported numerical results validate our contributions.

Deep latent variable models (DLVMs) combine the approximation abilities of deep neural networks and the statistical foundations of generative models. Variational methods are commonly used for inference; however, the exact likelihood of these models has been largely overlooked. The purpose of this work is to study the general properties of this quantity and to show how they can be leveraged in practice. We focus on important inferential problems that rely on the likelihood: estimation and missing data imputation. First, we investigate maximum likelihood estimation for DLVMs: in particular, we show that most unconstrained models used for continuous data have an unbounded likelihood function. This problematic behaviour is demonstrated to be a source of mode collapse. We also show how to ensure the existence of maximum likelihood estimates, and draw useful connections with nonparametric mixture models. Finally, we describe an algorithm for missing data imputation using the exact conditional likelihood of a DLVM. On several data sets, our algorithm consistently and significantly outperforms the usual imputation scheme used for DLVMs.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn decision policies from a fixed batch of logged transitions, without additional environment interaction. Despite remarkable empirical progress, offline RL remains fragile under distribution shifts: value-based methods can overestimate the value of unseen actions, yielding policies that exploit model errors rather than genuine long-term rewards. We propose \emph{Bayesian Conservative Policy Optimization (BCPO)}, a unified framework that converts epistemic uncertainty into \emph{provably conservative} policy improvement. BCPO maintains a hierarchical Bayesian posterior over environment/value models, constructs a \emph{credible lower bound} (LCB) on action values, and performs policy updates under explicit KL regularization toward the behavior distribution. This yields an uncertainty-calibrated analogue of conservative policy iteration in the offline regime. We provide a finite-MDP theory showing that the pessimistic fixed point lower-bounds the true value function with high probability and that KL-controlled updates improve a computable return lower bound. Empirically, we verify the methodology on a real offline replay dataset for the CartPole benchmark obtained via the \texttt{d3rlpy} ecosystem, and report diagnostics that link uncertainty growth and policy drift to offline instability, motivating principled early stopping and calibration