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 Learning Graphical Models


Interpretable, multi-dimensional Evaluation Framework for Causal Discovery from observational i.i.d. Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Nonlinear causal discovery from observational data imposes strict identifiability assumptions on the formulation of structural equations utilized in the data generating process. The evaluation of structure learning methods under assumption violations requires a rigorous and interpretable approach, which quantifies both the structural similarity of the estimation with the ground truth and the capacity of the discovered graphs to be used for causal inference. Motivated by the lack of unified performance assessment framework, we introduce an interpretable, six-dimensional evaluation metric, i.e., distance to optimal solution (DOS), which is specifically tailored to the field of causal discovery. Furthermore, this is the first research to assess the performance of structure learning algorithms from seven different families on increasing percentage of non-identifiable, nonlinear causal patterns, inspired by real-world processes. Our large-scale simulation study, which incorporates seven experimental factors, shows that besides causal order-based methods, amortized causal discovery delivers results with comparatively high proximity to the optimal solution.


Monte Carlo Tree Search with Spectral Expansion for Planning with Dynamical Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The ability of a robot to plan complex behaviors with real-time computation, rather than adhering to predesigned or offline-learned routines, alleviates the need for specialized algorithms or training for each problem instance. Monte Carlo Tree Search is a powerful planning algorithm that strategically explores simulated future possibilities, but it requires a discrete problem representation that is irreconcilable with the continuous dynamics of the physical world. We present Spectral Expansion Tree Search (SETS), a real-time, tree-based planner that uses the spectrum of the locally linearized system to construct a low-complexity and approximately equivalent discrete representation of the continuous world. We prove SETS converges to a bound of the globally optimal solution for continuous, deterministic and differentiable Markov Decision Processes, a broad class of problems that includes underactuated nonlinear dynamics, non-convex reward functions, and unstructured environments. We experimentally validate SETS on drone, spacecraft, and ground vehicle robots and one numerical experiment, each of which is not directly solvable with existing methods. We successfully show SETS automatically discovers a diverse set of optimal behaviors and motion trajectories in real time.


Modeling Inter-Intra Heterogeneity for Graph Federated Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Heterogeneity is a fundamental and challenging issue in federated learning, especially for the graph data due to the complex relationships among the graph nodes. To deal with the heterogeneity, lots of existing methods perform the weighted federation based on their calculated similarities between pairwise clients (i.e., subgraphs). However, their inter-subgraph similarities estimated with the outputs of local models are less reliable, because the final outputs of local models may not comprehensively represent the real distribution of subgraph data. In addition, they ignore the critical intra-heterogeneity which usually exists within each subgraph itself. To address these issues, we propose a novel Federated learning method by integrally modeling the Inter-Intra Heterogeneity (FedIIH). For the inter-subgraph relationship, we propose a novel hierarchical variational model to infer the whole distribution of subgraph data in a multi-level form, so that we can accurately characterize the inter-subgraph similarities with the global perspective. For the intra-heterogeneity, we disentangle the subgraph into multiple latent factors and partition the model parameters into multiple parts, where each part corresponds to a single latent factor. Our FedIIH not only properly computes the distribution similarities between subgraphs, but also learns disentangled representations that are robust to irrelevant factors within subgraphs, so that it successfully considers the inter- and intra- heterogeneity simultaneously. Extensive experiments on six homophilic and five heterophilic graph datasets in both non-overlapping and overlapping settings demonstrate the effectiveness of our method when compared with nine state-of-the-art methods. Specifically, FedIIH averagely outperforms the second-best method by a large margin of 5.79% on all heterophilic datasets.


Efficient Multiagent Planning via Shared Action Suggestions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes with communication (Dec-POMDP-Com) provide a framework for multiagent decision making under uncertainty, but the NEXP-complete complexity renders solutions intractable in general. While sharing actions and observations can reduce the complexity to PSPACE-complete, we propose an approach that bridges POMDPs and Dec-POMDPs by communicating only suggested joint actions, eliminating the need to share observations while maintaining performance comparable to fully centralized planning and execution. Our algorithm estimates joint beliefs using shared actions to prune infeasible beliefs. Each agent maintains possible belief sets for other agents, pruning them based on suggested actions to form an estimated joint belief usable with any centralized policy. This approach requires solving a POMDP for each agent, reducing computational complexity while preserving performance. We demonstrate its effectiveness on several Dec-POMDP benchmarks showing performance comparable to centralized methods when shared actions enable effective belief pruning. This action-based communication framework offers a natural avenue for integrating human-agent cooperation, opening new directions for scalable multiagent planning under uncertainty, with applications in both autonomous systems and human-agent teams.


Using Machine Learning to Distinguish Human-written from Machine-generated Creative Fiction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Following the universal availability of generative AI systems with the release of ChatGPT, automatic detection of deceptive text created by Large Language Models has focused on domains such as academic plagiarism and "fake news". However, generative AI also poses a threat to the livelihood of creative writers, and perhaps to literary culture in general, through reduction in quality of published material. Training a Large Language Model on writers' output to generate "sham books" in a particular style seems to constitute a new form of plagiarism. This problem has been little researched. In this study, we trained Machine Learning classifier models to distinguish short samples of human-written from machine-generated creative fiction, focusing on classic detective novels. Our results show that a Naive Bayes and a Multi-Layer Perceptron classifier achieved a high degree of success (accuracy > 95%), significantly outperforming human judges (accuracy < 55%). This approach worked well with short text samples (around 100 words), which previous research has shown to be difficult to classify. We have deployed an online proof-of-concept classifier tool, AI Detective, as a first step towards developing lightweight and reliable applications for use by editors and publishers, with the aim of protecting the economic and cultural contribution of human authors.


Poisson Multi-Bernoulli Mixtures for Sets of Trajectories

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Poisson Multi-Bernoulli Mixture (PMBM) density is a conjugate multi-target density for the standard point target model with Poisson point process birth. This means that both the filtering and predicted densities for the set of targets are PMBM. In this paper, we first show that the PMBM density is also conjugate for sets of trajectories with the standard point target measurement model. Second, based on this theoretical foundation, we develop two trajectory PMBM filters that provide recursions to calculate the posterior density for the set of all trajectories that have ever been present in the surveillance area, and the posterior density of the set of trajectories present at the current time step in the surveillance area. These two filters therefore provide complete probabilistic information on the considered trajectories enabling optimal trajectory estimation. Third, we establish that the density of the set of trajectories in any time window, given the measurements in a possibly different time window, is also a PMBM. Finally, the trajectory PMBM filters are evaluated via simulations, and are shown to yield state-of-the-art performance compared to other multi-target tracking algorithms based on random finite sets and multiple hypothesis tracking.


Modeling the Heterogeneous Duration of User Interest in Time-Dependent Recommendation: A Hidden Semi-Markov Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recommender systems are widely used for suggesting books, education materials, and products to users by exploring their behaviors. In reality, users' preferences often change over time, leading to studies on time-dependent recommender systems. However, most existing approaches that deal with time information remain primitive. In this paper, we extend existing methods and propose a hidden semi-Markov model to track the change of users' interests. Particularly, this model allows for capturing the different durations of user stays in a (latent) interest state, which can better model the heterogeneity of user interests and focuses. We derive an expectation maximization algorithm to estimate the parameters of the framework and predict users' actions. Experiments on three real-world datasets show that our model significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art time-dependent and static benchmark methods. Further analyses of the experiment results indicate that the performance improvement is related to the heterogeneity of state durations and the drift of user interests in the dataset.


Partial Identifiability in Inverse Reinforcement Learning For Agents With Non-Exponential Discounting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The aim of inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) is to infer an agent's preferences from observing their behaviour. Usually, preferences are modelled as a reward function, $R$, and behaviour is modelled as a policy, $\pi$. One of the central difficulties in IRL is that multiple preferences may lead to the same observed behaviour. That is, $R$ is typically underdetermined by $\pi$, which means that $R$ is only partially identifiable. Recent work has characterised the extent of this partial identifiability for different types of agents, including optimal and Boltzmann-rational agents. However, work so far has only considered agents that discount future reward exponentially: this is a serious limitation, especially given that extensive work in the behavioural sciences suggests that humans are better modelled as discounting hyperbolically. In this work, we newly characterise partial identifiability in IRL for agents with non-exponential discounting: our results are in particular relevant for hyperbolical discounting, but they also more generally apply to agents that use other types of (non-exponential) discounting. We significantly show that generally IRL is unable to infer enough information about $R$ to identify the correct optimal policy, which entails that IRL alone can be insufficient to adequately characterise the preferences of such agents.


Anti-bullying Adaptive Cruise Control: A proactive right-of-way protection approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The current Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) systems are vulnerable to "road bully" such as cut-ins. This paper proposed an Anti-bullying Adaptive Cruise Control (AACC) approach with proactive right-of-way protection ability. It bears the following features: i) with the enhanced capability of preventing bullying from cut-ins; ii) optimal but not unsafe; iii) adaptive to various driving styles of cut-in vehicles; iv) with real-time field implementation capability. The proposed approach can identify other road users' driving styles online and conduct game-based motion planning for right-of-way protection. A detailed investigation of the simulation results shows that the proposed approach can prevent bullying from cut-ins and be adaptive to different cut-in vehicles' driving styles. The proposed approach is capable of enhancing travel efficiency by up to 29.55% under different cut-in gaps and can strengthen driving safety compared with the current ACC controller. The proposed approach is flexible and robust against traffic congestion levels. It can improve mobility by up to 11.93% and robustness by 8.74% in traffic flow. Furthermore, the proposed approach can support real-time field implementation by ensuring less than 50 milliseconds computation time.


WEPO: Web Element Preference Optimization for LLM-based Web Navigation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The field of autonomous web navigation has seen significant advancements, driven by the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) in both mobile and webpage interactions [Wang et al., 2024a, Mialon et al., 2023, Xi et al., 2023]. Preliminary attempts, such as the ChatGPT Plugin [OpenAI, 2023], have also started building practical applications of web knowledge-based chatbot. Web navigation can be described as processes where agents perform specific tasks on behalf of human users within a web environment, involving the interpretation of high-level user instructions, decomposing them into basic operations, and interacting with complex web pages dynamically. To achieve this, agents must understand intricate web scenarios, adapt to dynamic changes such as noisy text and evolving HTML structures, and generalize successful operations to unseen tasks, thus freeing humans from repetitive interactions with computer interfaces. Traditional web agents trained through reinforcement learning [Shi et al., 2017, Yao et al., 2022] often mimic human behavior using predefined actions like typing, searching, and navigating to a specific page.