Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) is a method that merges principles from Bayesian statistics and reinforcement learning to make optimal decisions in uncertain environments. Similar to other model-based RL approaches, it involves two key components: (1) Inferring the posterior distribution of the data generating process (DGP) modeling the true environment and (2) policy learning using the learned posterior. We propose to model the dynamics of the unknown environment through deep generative models assuming Markov dependence. In absence of likelihood functions for these models we train them by learning a generalized predictive-sequential (or prequential) scoring rule (SR) posterior. We use sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers to draw samples from this generalized Bayesian posterior distribution. In conjunction, to achieve scalability in the high dimensional parameter space of the neural networks, we use the gradient based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) kernels within SMC. To justify the use of the prequential scoring rule posterior we prove a Bernstein-von Misses type theorem. For policy learning, we propose expected Thompson sampling (ETS) to learn the optimal policy by maximizing the expected value function with respect to the posterior distribution. This improves upon traditional Thompson sampling (TS) and its extensions which utilize only one sample drawn from the posterior distribution. This improvement is studied both theoretically and using simulation studies assuming discrete action and state-space. Finally we successfully extend our setup for a challenging problem with continuous action space without theoretical guarantees.

We consider a class of optimization problems defined by a system of linear equations with min and max operators. This class of optimization problems has been studied under restrictive conditions, such as, (C1) the halting or stability condition; (C2) the non-negative coefficients condition; (C3) the sum up to 1 condition; and (C4) the only min or only max oerator condition. Several seminal results in the literature focus on special cases. For example, turn-based stochastic games correspond to conditions C2 and C3; and Markov decision process to conditions C2, C3, and C4. However, the systematic computational complexity study of all the cases has not been explored, which we address in this work. Some highlights of our results are: with conditions C2 and C4, and with conditions C3 and C4, the problem is NP-complete, whereas with condition C1 only, the problem is in UP intersects coUP. Finally, we establish the computational complexity of the decision problem of checking the respective conditions.

In this work, we study the problem of aggregation in the context of Bayesian Federated Learning (BFL). Using an information geometric perspective, we interpret the BFL aggregation step as finding the barycenter of the trained posteriors for a pre-specified divergence metric. We study the barycenter problem for the parametric family of $\alpha$-divergences and, focusing on the standard case of independent and Gaussian distributed parameters, we recover the closed-form solution of the reverse Kullback-Leibler barycenter and develop the analytical form of the squared Wasserstein-2 barycenter. Considering a non-IID setup, where clients possess heterogeneous data, we analyze the performance of the developed algorithms against state-of-the-art (SOTA) Bayesian aggregation methods in terms of accuracy, uncertainty quantification (UQ), model calibration (MC), and fairness. Finally, we extend our analysis to the framework of Hybrid Bayesian Deep Learning (HBDL), where we study how the number of Bayesian layers in the architecture impacts the considered performance metrics. Our experimental results show that the proposed methodology presents comparable performance with the SOTA while offering a geometric interpretation of the aggregation phase.

We address the challenge of utilizing large language models (LLMs) for complex embodied tasks, in the environment where decision-making systems operate timely on capacity-limited, off-the-shelf devices. We present DeDer, a framework for decomposing and distilling the embodied reasoning capabilities from LLMs to efficient, small language model (sLM)-based policies. In DeDer, the decision-making process of LLM-based strategies is restructured into a hierarchy with a reasoning-policy and planning-policy. The reasoning-policy is distilled from the data that is generated through the embodied in-context learning and self-verification of an LLM, so it can produce effective rationales. The planning-policy, guided by the rationales, can render optimized plans efficiently. In turn, DeDer allows for adopting sLMs for both policies, deployed on off-the-shelf devices. Furthermore, to enhance the quality of intermediate rationales, specific to embodied tasks, we devise the embodied knowledge graph, and to generate multiple rationales timely through a single inference, we also use the contrastively prompted attention model. Our experiments with the ALFRED benchmark demonstrate that DeDer surpasses leading language planning and distillation approaches, indicating the applicability and efficiency of sLM-based embodied policies derived through DeDer.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) form a prominent model for uncertainty in sequential decision making. We are interested in constructing algorithms with theoretical guarantees to determine whether the agent has a strategy ensuring a given specification with probability 1. This well-studied problem is known to be undecidable already for very simple omega-regular objectives, because of the difficulty of reasoning on uncertain events. We introduce a revelation mechanism which restricts information loss by requiring that almost surely the agent has eventually full information of the current state. Our main technical results are to construct exact algorithms for two classes of POMDPs called weakly and strongly revealing. Importantly, the decidable cases reduce to the analysis of a finite belief-support Markov decision process. This yields a conceptually simple and exact algorithm for a large class of POMDPs.

Generative networks are an exciting tool for fast LHC event generation. Usually, they are used to generate configurations with a fixed number of particles. Autoregressive transformers allow us to generate events with variable numbers of particles, very much in line with the physics of QCD jet radiation. We show how they can learn a factorized likelihood for jet radiation and extrapolate in terms of the number of generated jets. For this extrapolation, bootstrapping training data and training with modifications of the likelihood loss can be used.

In two-player cooperative games, agents can play together effectively when they have accurate assumptions about how their teammate will behave, but may perform poorly when these assumptions are inaccurate. In language games, failure may be due to disagreement in the understanding of either the semantics or pragmatics of an utterance. We model coarse uncertainty in semantics using a prior distribution of language models and uncertainty in pragmatics using the cognitive hierarchy, combining the two aspects into a single prior distribution over possible partner types. Fine-grained uncertainty in semantics is modeled using noise that is added to the embeddings of words in the language. To handle all forms of uncertainty we construct agents that learn the behavior of their partner using Bayesian inference and use this information to maximize the expected value of a heuristic function. We test this approach by constructing Bayesian agents for the game of Codenames, and show that they perform better in experiments where semantics is uncertain

This paper reviews the large spectrum of methods for generating robot motion proposed over the 50 years of robotics research culminating in recent developments. It crosses the boundaries of methodologies, typically not surveyed together, from those that operate over explicit models to those that learn implicit ones.

Extracting anomaly causality facilitates diagnostics once monitoring systems detect system faults. Identifying anomaly causes in large systems involves investigating a more extensive set of monitoring variables across multiple subsystems. However, learning causal graphs comes with a significant computational burden that restrains the applicability of most existing methods in real-time and large-scale deployments. In addition, modern monitoring applications for large systems often generate large amounts of binary alarm flags, and the distinct characteristics of binary anomaly data -- the meaning of state transition and data sparsity -- challenge existing causality learning mechanisms. This study proposes an anomaly causal discovery approach (AnomalyCD), addressing the accuracy and computational challenges of generating causal graphs from binary flag data sets. The AnomalyCD framework presents several strategies, such as anomaly flag characteristics incorporating causality testing, sparse data and link compression, and edge pruning adjustment approaches. We validate the performance of this framework on two datasets: monitoring sensor data of the readout-box system of the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment at CERN, and a public data set for information technology monitoring. The results demonstrate the considerable reduction of the computation overhead and moderate enhancement of the accuracy of temporal causal discovery on binary anomaly data sets.

In recent years, Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) has gained traction in the most relevant research works and industrial applications, while also becoming involved in various fields of use. This paper offers a comprehensive review of GeoAI as a synergistic concept applying Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods and models to geospatial data. A preliminary study is carried out, identifying the methodology of the work, the research motivations, the issues and the directions to be tracked, followed by exploring how GeoAI can be used in various interesting fields of application, such as precision agriculture, environmental monitoring, disaster management and urban planning. Next, a statistical and semantic analysis is carried out, followed by a clear and precise presentation of the challenges facing GeoAI. Then, a concrete exploration of the future prospects is provided, based on several informations gathered during the census. To sum up, this paper provides a complete overview of the correlation between AI and the geospatial domain, while mentioning the researches conducted in this context, and emphasizing the close relationship linking GeoAI with other advanced concepts such as geographic information systems (GIS) and large-scale geospatial data, known as big geodata. This will enable researchers and scientific community to assess the state of progress in this promising field, and will help other interested parties to gain a better understanding of the issues involved.