This paper explores the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for economic forecasting, focusing on predicting CPI inflation rates. The study explores a new approach that integrates HMM-derived hidden states and means as additional features for LSTM modeling, aiming to enhance the interpretability and predictive performance of the models. The research begins with data collection and preprocessing, followed by the implementation of the HMM to identify hidden states representing distinct economic conditions. Subsequently, LSTM models are trained using the original and augmented data sets, allowing for comparative analysis and evaluation. The results demonstrate that incorporating HMM-derived data improves the predictive accuracy of LSTM models, particularly in capturing complex temporal patterns and mitigating the impact of volatile economic conditions. Additionally, the paper discusses the implementation of Integrated Gradients for model interpretability and provides insights into the economic dynamics reflected in the forecasting outcomes.

Forecasting vehicle behavior within complex traffic environments is pivotal within Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). Though this technology plays a significant role in alleviating the prevalent operational difficulties in logistics and transportation systems, the precise prediction of vehicle trajectories still poses a substantial challenge. To address this, our study introduces the Spatio Temporal Attention-based methodology for Target Vehicle Trajectory Prediction (STATVTPred). This approach integrates Global Positioning System(GPS) localization technology to track target movement and dynamically predict the vehicle's future path using comprehensive spatio-temporal trajectory data. We map the vehicle trajectory onto a directed graph, after which spatial attributes are extracted via a Graph Attention Networks(GATs). The Transformer technology is employed to yield temporal features from the sequence. These elements are then amalgamated with local road network structure maps to filter and deliver a smooth trajectory sequence, resulting in precise vehicle trajectory prediction.This study validates our proposed STATVTPred method on T-Drive and Chengdu taxi-trajectory datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that STATVTPred achieves 6.38% and 10.55% higher Average Match Rate (AMR) than the Transformer model on the Beijing and Chengdu datasets, respectively. Compared to the LSTM Encoder-Decoder model, STATVTPred boosts AMR by 37.45% and 36.06% on the same datasets. This is expected to establish STATVTPred as a new approach for handling trajectory prediction of targets in logistics and transportation scenarios, thereby enhancing prediction accuracy.

Efforts towards endowing robots with the ability to speak have benefited from recent advancements in NLP, in particular large language models. However, as powerful as current models have become, they still operate on sentence or multi-sentence level input, not on the word-by-word input that humans operate on, affecting the degree of responsiveness that they offer, which is critical in situations where humans interact with robots using speech. In this paper, we review the literature on interactive systems that operate incrementally (i.e., at the word level or below it). We motivate the need for incremental systems, survey incremental modeling of important aspects of dialogue like speech recognition and language generation. Primary focus is on the part of the system that makes decisions, known as the dialogue manager. We find that there is very little research on incremental dialogue management, offer some requirements for practical incremental dialogue management, and the implications of incremental dialogue for embodied, robotic platforms.

This paper studies an integrated sensing and communications (ISAC) system for low-altitude economy (LAE), where a ground base station (GBS) provides communication and navigation services for authorized unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), while sensing the low-altitude airspace to monitor the unauthorized mobile target. The expected communication sum-rate over a given flight period is maximized by jointly optimizing the beamforming at the GBS and UAVs' trajectories, subject to the constraints on the average signal-to-noise ratio requirement for sensing, the flight mission and collision avoidance of UAVs, as well as the maximum transmit power at the GBS. Typically, this is a sequential decision-making problem with the given flight mission. Thus, we transform it to a specific Markov decision process (MDP) model called episode task. Based on this modeling, we propose a novel LAE-oriented ISAC scheme, referred to as Deep LAE-ISAC (DeepLSC), by leveraging the deep reinforcement learning (DRL) technique. In DeepLSC, a reward function and a new action selection policy termed constrained noise-exploration policy are judiciously designed to fulfill various constraints. To enable efficient learning in episode tasks, we develop a hierarchical experience replay mechanism, where the gist is to employ all experiences generated within each episode to jointly train the neural network. Besides, to enhance the convergence speed of DeepLSC, a symmetric experience augmentation mechanism, which simultaneously permutes the indexes of all variables to enrich available experience sets, is proposed. Simulation results demonstrate that compared with benchmarks, DeepLSC yields a higher sum-rate while meeting the preset constraints, achieves faster convergence, and is more robust against different settings.

Causal inference in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates presents significant challenges. We introduce CausalBGM, an AI-powered Bayesian generative modeling approach that captures the causal relationship among covariates, treatment, and outcome variables. The core innovation of CausalBGM lies in its ability to estimate the individual treatment effect (ITE) by learning individual-specific distributions of a low-dimensional latent feature set (e.g., latent confounders) that drives changes in both treatment and outcome. This approach not only effectively mitigates confounding effects but also provides comprehensive uncertainty quantification, offering reliable and interpretable causal effect estimates at the individual level. CausalBGM adopts a Bayesian model and uses a novel iterative algorithm to update the model parameters and the posterior distribution of latent features until convergence. This framework leverages the power of AI to capture complex dependencies among variables while adhering to the Bayesian principles. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalBGM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, particularly in scenarios with high-dimensional covariates and large-scale datasets. Its Bayesian foundation ensures statistical rigor, providing robust and well-calibrated posterior intervals. By addressing key limitations of existing methods, CausalBGM emerges as a robust and promising framework for advancing causal inference in modern applications in fields such as genomics, healthcare, and social sciences. CausalBGM is maintained at the website https://causalbgm.readthedocs.io/.

Oral cancer constitutes a significant global health concern, resulting in 277,484 fatalities in 2023, with the highest prevalence observed in low- and middle-income nations. Facilitating automation in the detection of possibly malignant and malignant lesions in the oral cavity could result in cost-effective and early disease diagnosis. Establishing an extensive repository of meticulously annotated oral lesions is essential. In this research photos are being collected from global clinical experts, who have been equipped with an annotation tool to generate comprehensive labelling. This research presents a novel approach for integrating bounding box annotations from various doctors. Additionally, Deep Belief Network combined with CAPSNET is employed to develop automated systems that extracted intricate patterns to address this challenging problem. This study evaluated two deep learning-based computer vision methodologies for the automated detection and classification of oral lesions to facilitate the early detection of oral cancer: image classification utilizing CAPSNET. Image classification attained an F1 score of 94.23% for detecting photos with lesions 93.46% for identifying images necessitating referral. Object detection attained an F1 score of 89.34% for identifying lesions for referral. Subsequent performances are documented about classification based on the sort of referral decision. Our preliminary findings indicate that deep learning possesses the capability to address this complex problem.

Sequential decision problems are widely studied across many areas of science. A key challenge when learning policies from historical data - a practice commonly referred to as off-policy learning - is how to ``identify'' the impact of a policy of interest when the observed data are not randomized. Off-policy learning has mainly been studied in two settings: dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs), where the focus is on controlling confounding in medical problems with short decision horizons, and offline reinforcement learning (RL), where the focus is on dimension reduction in closed systems such as games. The gap between these two well studied settings has limited the wider application of off-policy learning to many real-world problems. Using the theory for causal inference based on acyclic directed mixed graph (ADMGs), we provide a set of graphical identification criteria in general decision processes that encompass both DTRs and MDPs. We discuss how our results relate to the often implicit causal assumptions made in the DTR and RL literatures and further clarify several common misconceptions. Finally, we present a realistic simulation study for the dynamic pricing problem encountered in container logistics, and demonstrate how violations of our graphical criteria can lead to suboptimal policies.

Communication is essential in coordinating the behaviors of multiple agents. However, existing methods primarily emphasize content, timing, and partners for information sharing, often neglecting the critical aspect of integrating shared information. This gap can significantly impact agents' ability to understand and respond to complex, uncertain interactions, thus affecting overall communication efficiency. To address this issue, we introduce M2I2, a novel framework designed to enhance the agents' capabilities to assimilate and utilize received information effectively. M2I2 equips agents with advanced capabilities for masked state modeling and joint-action prediction, enriching their perception of environmental uncertainties and facilitating the anticipation of teammates' intentions. This approach ensures that agents are furnished with both comprehensive and relevant information, bolstering more informed and synergistic behaviors. Moreover, we propose a Dimensional Rational Network, innovatively trained via a meta-learning paradigm, to identify the importance of dimensional pieces of information, evaluating their contributions to decision-making and auxiliary tasks. Then, we implement an importance-based heuristic for selective information masking and sharing. This strategy optimizes the efficiency of masked state modeling and the rationale behind information sharing. We evaluate M2I2 across diverse multi-agent tasks, the results demonstrate its superior performance, efficiency, and generalization capabilities, over existing state-of-the-art methods in various complex scenarios.

Diffusion models have gained tremendous success in text-to-image generation, yet still lag behind with visual understanding tasks, an area dominated by autoregressive vision-language models. We propose a large-scale and fully end-to-end diffusion model for multi-modal understanding and generation that significantly improves on existing diffusion-based multimodal models, and is the first of its kind to support the full suite of vision-language modeling capabilities. Inspired by the multimodal diffusion transformer (MM-DiT) and recent advances in discrete diffusion language modeling, we leverage a cross-modal maximum likelihood estimation framework that simultaneously trains the conditional likelihoods of both images and text jointly under a single loss function, which is back-propagated through both branches of the diffusion transformer. The resulting model is highly flexible and capable of a wide range of tasks including image generation, captioning, and visual question answering. Our model attained competitive performance compared to recent unified image understanding and generation models, demonstrating the potential of multimodal diffusion modeling as a promising alternative to autoregressive next-token prediction models.

Ensuring long-term fairness is crucial when developing automated decision making systems, specifically in dynamic and sequential environments. By maximizing their reward without consideration of fairness, AI agents can introduce disparities in their treatment of groups or individuals. In this paper, we establish the connection between bisimulation metrics and group fairness in reinforcement learning. We propose a novel approach that leverages bisimulation metrics to learn reward functions and observation dynamics, ensuring that learners treat groups fairly while reflecting the original problem. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in addressing disparities in sequential decision making problems through empirical evaluation on a standard fairness benchmark consisting of lending and college admission scenarios. As machine learning continues to shape decision making systems, understanding and addressing its potential risks and biases becomes increasingly imperative. This concern is especially pronounced in sequential decision making, where neglecting algorithmic fairness can create a self-reinforcing cycle that amplifies existing disparities (Jabbari et al., 2017; D'Amour et al., 2020). In response, there is a growing recognition of the importance of leveraging reinforcement learning (RL) to tackle decision making problems that have traditionally been approached through supervised learning paradigms, in order to achieve long-term fairness (Nashed et al., 2023). Yin et al. (2023) define long-term fairness in RL as the optimization of the cumulative reward subject to a constraint on the cumulative utility, reflecting fairness over a time horizon. Recent efforts to achieve fairness in RL have primarily relied on metrics adopted from supervised learning, such as demographic parity (Dwork et al., 2012) or equality of opportunity (Hardt et al., 2016b). These metrics are typically integrated into a constrained Markov decision process (MDP) framework to learn a policy that adheres to the criterion (Wen et al., 2021; Yin et al., 2023; Satija et al., 2023; Hu & Zhang, 2022). However, this approach is limited by its requirement for complex constrained optimization, which can introduce additional complexity and hyperparameters into the underlying RL algorithm. Moreover, these methods make the implicit assumption that stakeholders are incorporating these fairness constraints into their decision making process. However, in reality, this may not occur due to various external and uncontrollable factors (Kusner & Loftus, 2020).