The ever growing need for data for machine learning science and applications has fueled a long history of Active Learning (AL) research, as it is able to reduce the amount of annotations necessary to train strong models. However, most research was done for classification problems, as it is generally easier to derive uncertainty quantification (UC) from classification output without changing the model or training procedure. This feat is a lot less common for regression models, with few historic exceptions like Gaussian Processes. This leads to regression problems being under-researched in AL literature. In this paper, we are focusing specifically on the area of regression and recent models with uncertainty quantification (UC) in the architecture. Recently, two main approaches of UC for regression problems have been researched: Firstly, Gaussian neural networks (GNN) [6, 14], which use a neural network to parametrize µ and σ parameters and build a Gaussian predictive distribution and secondly, Normalizing Flows [16, 4], which are parametrizing a free-form predictive distribution with invertible transformations to be able to model more complex target distributions. Their predictive distributions allow these models to not only be trained via Negative Log Likelihood (NLL), but also to draw samples from the predictive distribution as well as to compute the log likelihood of any given point y. Recent works [2, 1] have investigated the potential of uncertainty quantification with normalizing flows by experimenting on synthetic experiments with a known ground-truth uncertainty. Intuitively, a predictive distribution should inertly allow for a good uncertainty quantification (e.g.

In the era of generative AI, deep generative models (DGMs) with latent representations have gained tremendous popularity. Despite their impressive empirical performance, the statistical properties of these models remain underexplored. DGMs are often overparametrized, non-identifiable, and uninterpretable black boxes, raising serious concerns when deploying them in high-stakes applications. Motivated by this, we propose an interpretable deep generative modeling framework for rich data types with discrete latent layers, called Deep Discrete Encoders (DDEs). A DDE is a directed graphical model with multiple binary latent layers. Theoretically, we propose transparent identifiability conditions for DDEs, which imply progressively smaller sizes of the latent layers as they go deeper. Identifiability ensures consistent parameter estimation and inspires an interpretable design of the deep architecture. Computationally, we propose a scalable estimation pipeline of a layerwise nonlinear spectral initialization followed by a penalized stochastic approximation EM algorithm. This procedure can efficiently estimate models with exponentially many latent components. Extensive simulation studies validate our theoretical results and demonstrate the proposed algorithms' excellent performance. We apply DDEs to three diverse real datasets for hierarchical topic modeling, image representation learning, response time modeling in educational testing, and obtain interpretable findings.

In this paper we address the problem of performing Bayesian inference for the parameters of a nonlinear multi-output model and the covariance matrix of the different output signals. We propose an adaptive importance sampling (AIS) scheme for multivariate Bayesian inversion problems, which is based in two main ideas: the variables of interest are split in two blocks and the inference takes advantage of known analytical optimization formulas. We estimate both the unknown parameters of the multivariate non-linear model and the covariance matrix of the noise. In the first part of the proposed inference scheme, a novel AIS technique called adaptive target adaptive importance sampling (ATAIS) is designed, which alternates iteratively between an IS technique over the parameters of the non-linear model and a frequentist approach for the covariance matrix of the noise. In the second part of the proposed inference scheme, a prior density over the covariance matrix is considered and the cloud of samples obtained by ATAIS are recycled and re-weighted to obtain a complete Bayesian study over the model parameters and covariance matrix. ATAIS is the main contribution of the work. Additionally, the inverted layered importance sampling (ILIS) is presented as a possible compelling algorithm (but based on a conceptually simpler idea). Different numerical examples show the benefits of the proposed approaches

Many critical decisions, such as personalized medical diagnoses and product pricing, are made based on insights gained from designing, observing, and analyzing a series of experiments. This highlights the crucial role of experimental design, which goes beyond merely collecting information on system parameters as in traditional Bayesian experimental design (BED), but also plays a key part in facilitating downstream decision-making. Most recent BED methods use an amortized policy network to rapidly design experiments. However, the information gathered through these methods is suboptimal for down-the-line decision-making, as the experiments are not inherently designed with downstream objectives in mind. In this paper, we present an amortized decision-aware BED framework that prioritizes maximizing downstream decision utility. We introduce a novel architecture, the Transformer Neural Decision Process (TNDP), capable of instantly proposing the next experimental design, whilst inferring the downstream decision, thus effectively amortizing both tasks within a unified workflow. We demonstrate the performance of our method across several tasks, showing that it can deliver informative designs and facilitate accurate decision-making.

Modeling the associations between real world entities from their multivariate cross-sectional profiles can provide cues into the concerted working of these entities as a system. Several techniques have been proposed for deciphering these associations including constraint-based Bayesian structure learning (BSL) algorithms that model them as directed acyclic graphs. Benchmarking these algorithms have typically focused on assessing the variation in performance measures such as sensitivity as a function of the dimensionality represented by the number of nodes in the DAG, and sample size. The present study elucidates the importance of network topology in benchmarking exercises. More specifically, it investigates variations in sensitivity across distinct network topologies while constraining the nodes, edges, and sample-size to be identical, eliminating these as potential confounders. Sensitivity of three popular constraint-based BSL algorithms (Peter-Clarke, Grow-Shrink, Incremental Association Markov Blanket) in learning the network structure from multivariate cross-sectional profiles sampled from network models with sub-linear, linear, and super-linear DAG topologies generated using preferential attachment is investigated. Results across linear and nonlinear models revealed statistically significant $(\alpha=0.05)$ decrease in sensitivity estimates from sub-linear to super-linear topology constitutively across the three algorithms. These results are demonstrated on networks with nodes $(N_{nods}=48,64)$, noise strengths $(\sigma =3,6)$ and sample size $(N = 2^{10})$. The findings elucidate the importance of accommodating the network topology in constraint-based BSL benchmarking exercises.

In this work, we present a probabilistic model for directed graphs where nodes have attributes and labels. This model serves as a generative classifier capable of predicting the labels of unseen nodes using either maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori estimations. The predictions made by this model are highly interpretable, contrasting with some common methods for node classification, such as graph neural networks. We applied the model to two datasets, demonstrating predictive performance that is competitive with, and even superior to, state-of-the-art methods. One of the datasets considered is adapted from the Math Genealogy Project, which has not previously been utilized for this purpose. Consequently, we evaluated several classification algorithms on this dataset to compare the performance of our model and provide benchmarks for this new resource.

Cloud computing has revolutionized the provisioning of computing resources, offering scalable, flexible, and on-demand services to meet the diverse requirements of modern applications. At the heart of efficient cloud operations are job scheduling and resource management, which are critical for optimizing system performance and ensuring timely and cost-effective service delivery. However, the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of cloud environments presents significant challenges for these tasks, as workloads and resource availability can fluctuate unpredictably. Traditional approaches, including heuristic and meta-heuristic algorithms, often struggle to adapt to these real-time changes due to their reliance on static models or predefined rules. Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) has emerged as a promising solution to these challenges by enabling systems to learn and adapt policies based on continuous observations of the environment, facilitating intelligent and responsive decision-making. This survey provides a comprehensive review of DRL-based algorithms for job scheduling and resource management in cloud computing, analyzing their methodologies, performance metrics, and practical applications. We also highlight emerging trends and future research directions, offering valuable insights into leveraging DRL to advance both job scheduling and resource management in cloud computing.

This paper explores the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for economic forecasting, focusing on predicting CPI inflation rates. The study explores a new approach that integrates HMM-derived hidden states and means as additional features for LSTM modeling, aiming to enhance the interpretability and predictive performance of the models. The research begins with data collection and preprocessing, followed by the implementation of the HMM to identify hidden states representing distinct economic conditions. Subsequently, LSTM models are trained using the original and augmented data sets, allowing for comparative analysis and evaluation. The results demonstrate that incorporating HMM-derived data improves the predictive accuracy of LSTM models, particularly in capturing complex temporal patterns and mitigating the impact of volatile economic conditions. Additionally, the paper discusses the implementation of Integrated Gradients for model interpretability and provides insights into the economic dynamics reflected in the forecasting outcomes.

Forecasting vehicle behavior within complex traffic environments is pivotal within Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). Though this technology plays a significant role in alleviating the prevalent operational difficulties in logistics and transportation systems, the precise prediction of vehicle trajectories still poses a substantial challenge. To address this, our study introduces the Spatio Temporal Attention-based methodology for Target Vehicle Trajectory Prediction (STATVTPred). This approach integrates Global Positioning System(GPS) localization technology to track target movement and dynamically predict the vehicle's future path using comprehensive spatio-temporal trajectory data. We map the vehicle trajectory onto a directed graph, after which spatial attributes are extracted via a Graph Attention Networks(GATs). The Transformer technology is employed to yield temporal features from the sequence. These elements are then amalgamated with local road network structure maps to filter and deliver a smooth trajectory sequence, resulting in precise vehicle trajectory prediction.This study validates our proposed STATVTPred method on T-Drive and Chengdu taxi-trajectory datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that STATVTPred achieves 6.38% and 10.55% higher Average Match Rate (AMR) than the Transformer model on the Beijing and Chengdu datasets, respectively. Compared to the LSTM Encoder-Decoder model, STATVTPred boosts AMR by 37.45% and 36.06% on the same datasets. This is expected to establish STATVTPred as a new approach for handling trajectory prediction of targets in logistics and transportation scenarios, thereby enhancing prediction accuracy.

Efforts towards endowing robots with the ability to speak have benefited from recent advancements in NLP, in particular large language models. However, as powerful as current models have become, they still operate on sentence or multi-sentence level input, not on the word-by-word input that humans operate on, affecting the degree of responsiveness that they offer, which is critical in situations where humans interact with robots using speech. In this paper, we review the literature on interactive systems that operate incrementally (i.e., at the word level or below it). We motivate the need for incremental systems, survey incremental modeling of important aspects of dialogue like speech recognition and language generation. Primary focus is on the part of the system that makes decisions, known as the dialogue manager. We find that there is very little research on incremental dialogue management, offer some requirements for practical incremental dialogue management, and the implications of incremental dialogue for embodied, robotic platforms.