To achieve high service quality and profitability, meal delivery platforms like Uber Eats and Grubhub must strategically operate their fleets to ensure timely deliveries for current orders while mitigating the consequential impacts of suboptimal decisions that leads to courier understaffing in the future. This study set out to solve the real-time order dispatching and idle courier steering problems for a meal delivery platform by proposing a reinforcement learning (RL)-based strategic dual-control framework. To address the inherent sequential nature of these problems, we model both order dispatching and courier steering as Markov Decision Processes. Trained via a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework, we obtain strategic policies by leveraging the explicitly predicted demands as part of the inputs. In our dual-control framework, the dispatching and steering policies are iteratively trained in an integrated manner. These forward-looking policies can be executed in real-time and provide decisions while jointly considering the impacts on local and network levels. To enhance dispatching fairness, we propose convolutional deep Q networks to construct fair courier embeddings. To simultaneously rebalance the supply and demand within the service network, we propose to utilize mean-field approximated supply-demand knowledge to reallocate idle couriers at the local level. Utilizing the policies generated by the RL-based strategic dual-control framework, we find the delivery efficiency and fairness of workload distribution among couriers have been improved, and under-supplied conditions have been alleviated within the service network. Our study sheds light on designing an RL-based framework to enable forward-looking real-time operations for meal delivery platforms and other on-demand services.

Automated Vehicles (AVs) hold promise for revolutionizing transportation by improving road safety, traffic efficiency, and overall mobility. Despite the steady advancement in high-level AVs in recent years, the transition to full automation entails a period of mixed traffic, where AVs of varying automation levels coexist with human-driven vehicles (HDVs). Making AVs socially compliant and understood by human drivers is expected to improve the safety and efficiency of mixed traffic. Thus, ensuring AVs compatibility with HDVs and social acceptance is crucial for their successful and seamless integration into mixed traffic. However, research in this critical area of developing Socially Compliant AVs (SCAVs) remains sparse. This study carries out the first comprehensive scoping review to assess the current state of the art in developing SCAVs, identifying key concepts, methodological approaches, and research gaps. An expert interview was also conducted to identify critical research gaps and expectations towards SCAVs. Based on the scoping review and expert interview input, a conceptual framework is proposed for the development of SCAVs. The conceptual framework is evaluated using an online survey targeting researchers, technicians, policymakers, and other relevant professionals worldwide. The survey results provide valuable validation and insights, affirming the significance of the proposed conceptual framework in tackling the challenges of integrating AVs into mixed-traffic environments. Additionally, future research perspectives and suggestions are discussed, contributing to the research and development agenda of SCAVs.

Despite the wide use of $k$-Nearest Neighbors as classification models, their explainability properties remain poorly understood from a theoretical perspective. While nearest neighbors classifiers offer interpretability from a "data perspective", in which the classification of an input vector $\bar{x}$ is explained by identifying the vectors $\bar{v}_1, \ldots, \bar{v}_k$ in the training set that determine the classification of $\bar{x}$, we argue that such explanations can be impractical in high-dimensional applications, where each vector has hundreds or thousands of features and it is not clear what their relative importance is. Hence, we focus on understanding nearest neighbor classifications through a "feature perspective", in which the goal is to identify how the values of the features in $\bar{x}$ affect its classification. Concretely, we study abductive explanations such as "minimum sufficient reasons", which correspond to sets of features in $\bar{x}$ that are enough to guarantee its classification, and "counterfactual explanations" based on the minimum distance feature changes one would have to perform in $\bar{x}$ to change its classification. We present a detailed landscape of positive and negative complexity results for counterfactual and abductive explanations, distinguishing between discrete and continuous feature spaces, and considering the impact of the choice of distance function involved. Finally, we show that despite some negative complexity results, Integer Quadratic Programming and SAT solving allow for computing explanations in practice.

Causal inference has recently gained notable attention across various fields like biology, healthcare, and environmental science, especially within explainable artificial intelligence (xAI) systems, for uncovering the causal relationships among multiple variables and outcomes. Yet, it has not been fully recognized and deployed in the manufacturing systems. In this paper, we introduce an explainable, scalable, and flexible federated Bayesian learning framework, \texttt{xFBCI}, designed to explore causality through treatment effect estimation in distributed manufacturing systems. By leveraging federated Bayesian learning, we efficiently estimate posterior of local parameters to derive the propensity score for each client without accessing local private data. These scores are then used to estimate the treatment effect using propensity score matching (PSM). Through simulations on various datasets and a real-world Electrohydrodynamic (EHD) printing data, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms standard Bayesian causal inference methods and several state-of-the-art federated learning benchmarks.

Deploying artificial intelligence (AI) models on edge devices involves a delicate balance between meeting stringent complexity constraints, such as limited memory and energy resources, and ensuring reliable performance in sensitive decision-making tasks. One way to enhance reliability is through uncertainty quantification via Bayesian inference. This approach, however, typically necessitates maintaining and running multiple models in an ensemble, which may exceed the computational limits of edge devices. This paper introduces a low-complexity methodology to address this challenge by distilling calibration information from a more complex model. In an offline phase, predictive probabilities generated by a high-complexity cloud-based model are leveraged to determine a threshold based on the typical divergence between the cloud and edge models. At run time, this threshold is used to construct credal sets -- ranges of predictive probabilities that are guaranteed, with a user-selected confidence level, to include the predictions of the cloud model. The credal sets are obtained through thresholding of a divergence measure in the simplex of predictive probabilities. Experiments on visual and language tasks demonstrate that the proposed approach, termed Conformalized Distillation for Credal Inference (CD-CI), significantly improves calibration performance compared to low-complexity Bayesian methods, such as Laplace approximation, making it a practical and efficient solution for edge AI deployments.

Cooperative heterogeneous multi-agent tasks require agents to effectively coordinate their behaviors while accounting for their relative capabilities. Learning-based solutions to this challenge span between two extremes: i) shared-parameter methods, which encode diverse behaviors within a single architecture by assigning an ID to each agent, and are sample-efficient but result in limited behavioral diversity; ii) independent methods, which learn a separate policy for each agent, and show greater behavioral diversity but lack sample-efficiency. Prior work has also explored selective parameter-sharing, allowing for a compromise between diversity and efficiency. None of these approaches, however, effectively generalize to unseen agents or teams. We present Capability-Aware Shared Hypernetworks (CASH), a novel architecture for heterogeneous multi-agent coordination that generates sufficient diversity while maintaining sample-efficiency via soft parameter-sharing hypernetworks. Intuitively, CASH allows the team to learn common strategies using a shared encoder, which are then adapted according to the team's individual and collective capabilities with a hypernetwork, allowing for zero-shot generalization to unseen teams and agents. We present experiments across two heterogeneous coordination tasks and three standard learning paradigms (imitation learning, on- and off-policy reinforcement learning). CASH is able to outperform baseline architectures in success rate and sample efficiency when evaluated on unseen teams and agents despite using less than half of the learnable parameters.

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is widely used in nonlinear state-space systems, but its performance often suffers from poorly approximated proposal and state-transition distributions. This work introduces a differentiable particle filter that leverages the unsupervised variational SMC objective to parameterize the proposal and transition distributions with a neural network, designed to learn from high-dimensional observations. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms established baselines in tracking the challenging Lorenz attractor from high-dimensional and partial observations. Furthermore, an evidence lower bound based evaluation indicates that our method offers a more accurate representation of the posterior distribution.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) progresses through distinct stages, from early mild cognitive impairment (EMCI) to late mild cognitive impairment (LMCI) and eventually to AD. Accurate identification of these stages, especially distinguishing LMCI from EMCI, is crucial for developing pre-dementia treatments but remains challenging due to subtle and overlapping imaging features. This study proposes a minimal-feature machine learning framework that leverages structural MRI data, focusing on the hippocampus and amygdala as regions of interest. The framework addresses the curse of dimensionality through feature selection, utilizes region-specific voxel information, and implements innovative data organization to enhance classification performance by reducing noise. The methodology integrates dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA and t-SNE with state-of-the-art classifiers, achieving the highest accuracy of 88.46%. This framework demonstrates the potential for efficient and accurate staging of AD progression while providing valuable insights for clinical applications.

Causal Learning has emerged as a major theme of AI in recent years, promising to use special techniques to reveal the true nature of cause and effect in a number of important domains. We consider the Epistemology of learning and recognizing true cause and effect phenomena. Through thought exercises on the customary use of the word ''cause'', especially in scientific domains, we investigate what, in practice, constitutes a valid causal claim. We recognize the word's uses across scientific domains in disparate form but consistent function within the scientific paradigm. We highlight fundamental distinctions of practice that can be performed in the natural and social sciences, highlight the importance of many systems of interest being open and irreducible and identify the important notion of Hermeneutic knowledge for social science inquiry. We posit that the distinct properties require that definitive causal claims can only come through an agglomeration of consistent evidence across multiple domains and levels of abstraction, such as empirical, physiological, biochemical, etc. We present Cognitive Science as an exemplary multi-disciplinary field providing omnipresent opportunity for such a Research Program, and highlight the main general modes of practice of scientific inquiry that can adequately merge, rather than place as incorrigibly conflictual, multi-domain multi-abstraction scientific practices and language games.

Learning the structure of Bayesian networks from data provides insights into underlying processes and the causal relationships that generate the data, but its usefulness depends on the homogeneity of the data population, a condition often violated in real-world applications. In such cases, using a single network structure for inference can be misleading, as it may not capture sub-population differences. To address this, we propose a novel approach of modelling a mixture of Bayesian networks where component probabilities depend on individual characteristics. Our method identifies both network structures and demographic predictors of sub-population membership, aiding personalised interventions. We evaluate our method through simulations and a youth mental health case study, demonstrating its potential to improve tailored interventions in health, education, and social policy.