Learning Graphical Models
Learning Descriptive Image Captioning via Semipermeable Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Image captioning aims to describe visual content in natural language. As'a picture is worth a thousand words', there could be various correct descriptions for an image. However, with maximum likelihood estimation as the training objective, the captioning model is penalized whenever its prediction mismatches with the label. For instance, when the model predicts a word expressing richer semantics than the label, it will be penalized and optimized to prefer more concise expressions, referred to as conciseness optimization. In contrast, predictions that are more concise than labels lead to richness optimization. Such conflicting optimization directions could eventually result in the model generating general descriptions.
How to Turn Your Knowledge Graph Embeddings into Generative Models
Some of the most successful knowledge graph embedding (KGE) models for link prediction – CP, RESCAL, TuckER, ComplEx – can be interpreted as energy-based models. Under this perspective they are not amenable for exact maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE), sampling and struggle to integrate logical constraints. This work re-interprets the score functions of these KGEs as circuits – constrained computational graphs allowing efficient marginalisation. Then, we design two recipes to obtain efficient generative circuit models by either restricting their activations to be non-negative or squaring their outputs. Our interpretation comes with little or no loss of performance for link prediction, while the circuits framework unlocks exact learning by MLE, efficient sampling of new triples, and guarantee that logical constraints are satisfied by design.
Optimal Convergence Rate for Exact Policy Mirror Descent in Discounted Markov Decision Processes
Policy Mirror Descent (PMD) is a general family of algorithms that covers a wide range of novel and fundamental methods in reinforcement learning. With exact policy evaluation, PI is known to converge linearly with a rate given by the discount factor \gamma of a Markov Decision Process. In this work, we bridge the gap between PI and PMD with exact policy evaluation and show that the dimension-free \gamma -rate of PI can be achieved by the general family of unregularised PMD algorithms under an adaptive step-size. We show that both the rate and step-size are unimprovable for PMD: we provide matching lower bounds that demonstrate that the \gamma -rate is optimal for PMD methods as well as PI and that the adaptive step-size is necessary to achieve it. Our work is the first to relate PMD to rate-optimality and step-size necessity.
Deep Gaussian Markov Random Fields for Graph-Structured Dynamical Systems
Probabilistic inference in high-dimensional state-space models is computationally challenging. For many spatiotemporal systems, however, prior knowledge about the dependency structure of state variables is available. We leverage this structure to develop a computationally efficient approach to state estimation and learning in graph-structured state-space models with (partially) unknown dynamics and limited historical data. Building on recent methods that combine ideas from deep learning with principled inference in Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRF), we reformulate graph-structured state-space models as Deep GMRFs defined by simple spatial and temporal graph layers. This results in a flexible spatiotemporal prior that can be learned efficiently from a single time sequence via variational inference.
Learning Causal Models under Independent Changes
In many scientific applications, we observe a system in different conditions in which its components may change, rather than in isolation. In our work, we are interested in explaining the generating process of such a multi-context system using a finite mixture of causal mechanisms. Recent work shows that this causal model is identifiable from data, but is limited to settings where the sparse mechanism shift hypothesis holds and only a subset of the causal conditionals change. As this assumption is not easily verifiable in practice, we study the more general principle that mechanism shifts are independent, which we formalize using the algorithmic notion of independence. We introduce an approach for causal discovery beyond partially directed graphs using Gaussian Process models, and give conditions under which we provably identify the correct causal model.
A Theoretical Analysis of Optimistic Proximal Policy Optimization in Linear Markov Decision Processes
The proximal policy optimization (PPO) algorithm stands as one of the most prosperous methods in the field of reinforcement learning (RL). Despite its success, the theoretical understanding of PPO remains deficient. Specifically, it is unclear whether PPO or its optimistic variants can effectively solve linear Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are arguably the simplest models in RL with function approximation. To bridge this gap, we propose an optimistic variant of PPO for episodic adversarial linear MDPs with full-information feedback, and establish a \tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d {3/4}H 2K {3/4}) regret for it. Here d is the ambient dimension of linear MDPs, H is the length of each episode, and K is the number of episodes. Compared with existing policy-based algorithms, we achieve the state-of-the-art regret bound in both stochastic linear MDPs and adversarial linear MDPs with full information.
Bayesian Learning via Q-Exponential Process
Regularization is one of the most fundamental topics in optimization, statistics and machine learning. To get sparsity in estimating a parameter u\in\mathbb{R} d, an \ell_q penalty term, \Vert u\Vert_q, is usually added to the objective function. What is the probabilistic distribution corresponding to such \ell_q penalty? What is the \emph{correct} stochastic process corresponding to \Vert u\Vert_q when we model functions u\in L q? This is important for statistically modeling high-dimensional objects such as images, with penalty to preserve certainty properties, e.g.
Finding Safe Zones of Markov Decision Processes Policies
Given a policy of a Markov Decision Process, we define a SafeZone as a subset of states, such that most of the policy's trajectories are confined to this subset. The quality of a SafeZone is parameterized by the number of states and the escape probability, i.e., the probability that a random trajectory will leave the subset. SafeZones are especially interesting when they have a small number of states and low escape probability. We study the complexity of finding optimal SafeZones, and show that in general, the problem is computationally hard. For this reason, we concentrate on finding approximate SafeZones.
Agent-R: Training Language Model Agents to Reflect via Iterative Self-Training
Yuan, Siyu, Chen, Zehui, Xi, Zhiheng, Ye, Junjie, Du, Zhengyin, Chen, Jiecao
Large Language Models (LLMs) agents are increasingly pivotal for addressing complex tasks in interactive environments. Existing work mainly focuses on enhancing performance through behavior cloning from stronger experts, yet such approaches often falter in real-world applications, mainly due to the inability to recover from errors. However, step-level critique data is difficult and expensive to collect. Automating and dynamically constructing self-critique datasets is thus crucial to empowering models with intelligent agent capabilities. In this work, we propose an iterative self-training framework, Agent-R, that enables language Agent to Reflect on the fly. Unlike traditional methods that reward or penalize actions based on correctness, Agent-R leverages MCTS to construct training data that recover correct trajectories from erroneous ones. A key challenge of agent reflection lies in the necessity for timely revision rather than waiting until the end of a rollout. To address this, we introduce a model-guided critique construction mechanism: the actor model identifies the first error step (within its current capability) in a failed trajectory. Starting from it, we splice it with the adjacent correct path, which shares the same parent node in the tree. This strategy enables the model to learn reflection based on its current policy, therefore yielding better learning efficiency. To further explore the scalability of this self-improvement paradigm, we investigate iterative refinement of both error correction capabilities and dataset construction. Our findings demonstrate that Agent-R continuously improves the model's ability to recover from errors and enables timely error correction. Experiments on three interactive environments show that Agent-R effectively equips agents to correct erroneous actions while avoiding loops, achieving superior performance compared to baseline methods (+5.59%).
PandaSkill - Player Performance and Skill Rating in Esports: Application to League of Legends
De Bois, Maxime, Parmentier, Flora, Puget, Raphaël, Tanti, Matthew, Peltier, Jordan
To take the esports scene to the next level, we introduce PandaSkill, a framework for assessing player performance and skill rating. Traditional rating systems like Elo and TrueSkill often overlook individual contributions and face challenges in professional esports due to limited game data and fragmented competitive scenes. PandaSkill leverages machine learning to estimate in-game player performance from individual player statistics. Each in-game role is modeled independently, ensuring a fair comparison between them. Then, using these performance scores, PandaSkill updates the player skill ratings using the Bayesian framework OpenSkill in a free-for-all setting. In this setting, skill ratings are updated solely based on performance scores rather than game outcomes, hightlighting individual contributions. To address the challenge of isolated rating pools that hinder cross-regional comparisons, PandaSkill introduces a dual-rating system that combines players' regional ratings with a meta-rating representing each region's overall skill level. Applying PandaSkill to five years of professional League of Legends matches worldwide, we show that our method produces skill ratings that better predict game outcomes and align more closely with expert opinions compared to existing methods.