Causal Bayesian networks are 'causal' models since they make predictions about interventional distributions. To connect such causal model predictions to real-world outcomes, we must determine which actions in the world correspond to which interventions in the model. For example, to interpret an action as an intervention on a treatment variable, the action will presumably have to a) change the distribution of treatment in a way that corresponds to the intervention, and b) not change other aspects, such as how the outcome depends on the treatment; while the marginal distributions of some variables may change as an effect. We introduce a formal framework to make such requirements for different interpretations of actions as interventions precise. We prove that the seemingly natural interpretation of actions as interventions is circular: Under this interpretation, every causal Bayesian network that correctly models the observational distribution is trivially also interventionally valid, and no action yields empirical data that could possibly falsify such a model. We prove an impossibility result: No interpretation exists that is non-circular and simultaneously satisfies a set of natural desiderata. Instead, we examine non-circular interpretations that may violate some desiderata and show how this may in turn enable the falsification of causal models. By rigorously examining how a causal Bayesian network could be a 'causal' model of the world instead of merely a mathematical object, our formal framework contributes to the conceptual foundations of causal representation learning, causal discovery, and causal abstraction, while also highlighting some limitations of existing approaches.

Gaussian process (GP) bandits provide a powerful framework for solving blackbox optimization of unknown functions. The characteristics of the unknown function depends heavily on the assumed GP prior. Most work in the literature assume that this prior is known but in practice this seldom holds. Instead, practitioners often rely on maximum likelihood estimation to select the hyperparameters of the prior - which lacks theoretical guarantees. In this work, we propose two algorithms for joint prior selection and regret minimization in GP bandits based on GP Thompson sampling (GP-TS): Prior-Elimination GP-TS (PE-GP-TS) and HyperPrior GP-TS (HP-GP-TS). We theoretically analyze the algorithms and establish upper bounds for their respective regret. In addition, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms compared to the alternatives through experiments with synthetic and real-world data.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable potential in reasoning while they still suffer from severe factual hallucinations due to timeliness, accuracy, and coverage of parametric knowledge. Meanwhile, integrating reasoning with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) remains challenging due to ineffective task decomposition and redundant retrieval, which can introduce noise and degrade response quality. In this paper, we propose DeepRAG, a framework that models retrieval-augmented reasoning as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), enabling strategic and adaptive retrieval. By iteratively decomposing queries, DeepRAG dynamically determines whether to retrieve external knowledge or rely on parametric reasoning at each step. Experiments show that DeepRAG improves retrieval efficiency while improving answer accuracy by 21.99%, demonstrating its effectiveness in optimizing retrieval-augmented reasoning.

Symmetry is an important inductive bias that can improve model robustness and generalization across many deep learning domains. In multi-agent settings, a priori known symmetries have been shown to address a fundamental coordination failure mode known as mutually incompatible symmetry breaking; e.g. in a game where two independent agents can choose to move "left'' or "right'', and where a reward of +1 or -1 is received when the agents choose the same action or different actions, respectively. However, the efficient and automatic discovery of environment symmetries, in particular for decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes, remains an open problem. Furthermore, environmental symmetry breaking constitutes only one type of coordination failure, which motivates the search for a more accessible and broader symmetry class. In this paper, we introduce such a broader group of previously unexplored symmetries, which we call expected return symmetries, which contains environment symmetries as a subgroup. We show that agents trained to be compatible under the group of expected return symmetries achieve better zero-shot coordination results than those using environment symmetries. As an additional benefit, our method makes minimal a priori assumptions about the structure of their environment and does not require access to ground truth symmetries.

Sample inefficiency is a long-lasting challenge in deep reinforcement learning (DRL). Despite dramatic improvements have been made, the problem is far from being solved and is especially challenging in environments with sparse or delayed rewards. In our work, we propose to use Adversarial Estimates as a new, simple and efficient approach to mitigate this problem for a class of feedback-based DRL algorithms. Our approach leverages latent similarity search from a small set of human-collected trajectories to boost learning, using only five minutes of human-recorded experience. The results of our study show algorithms trained with Adversarial Estimates converge faster than their original version. Moreover, we discuss how our approach could enable learning in feedback-based algorithms in extreme scenarios with very sparse rewards.

This article presents MCTS-BN, an adaptation of the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm for the structural learning of Bayesian Networks (BNs). Initially designed for game tree exploration, MCTS has been repurposed to address the challenge of learning BN structures by exploring the search space of potential ancestral orders in Bayesian Networks. Then, it employs Hill Climbing (HC) to derive a Bayesian Network structure from each order. In large BNs, where the search space for variable orders becomes vast, using completely random orders during the rollout phase is often unreliable and impractical. We adopt a semi-randomized approach to address this challenge by incorporating variable orders obtained from other heuristic search algorithms such as Greedy Equivalent Search (GES), PC, or HC itself. This hybrid strategy mitigates the computational burden and enhances the reliability of the rollout process. Experimental evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of MCTS-BN in improving BNs generated by traditional structural learning algorithms, exhibiting robust performance even when base algorithm orders are suboptimal and surpassing the gold standard when provided with favorable orders.

In the era of pervasive internet use and the dominance of social networks, researchers face significant challenges in Persian text mining including the scarcity of adequate datasets in Persian and the inefficiency of existing language models. This paper specifically tackles these challenges, aiming to amplify the efficiency of language models tailored to the Persian language. Focusing on enhancing the effectiveness of sentiment analysis, our approach employs an aspect-based methodology utilizing the ParsBERT model, augmented with a relevant lexicon. The study centers on sentiment analysis of user opinions extracted from the Persian website 'Digikala.' The experimental results not only highlight the proposed method's superior semantic capabilities but also showcase its efficiency gains with an accuracy of 88.2% and an F1 score of 61.7. The importance of enhancing language models in this context lies in their pivotal role in extracting nuanced sentiments from user-generated content, ultimately advancing the field of sentiment analysis in Persian text mining by increasing efficiency and accuracy.

What computational structures emerge in transformers trained on next-token prediction? In this work, we provide evidence that transformers implement constrained Bayesian belief updating -- a parallelized version of partial Bayesian inference shaped by architectural constraints. To do this, we integrate the model-agnostic theory of optimal prediction with mechanistic interpretability to analyze transformers trained on a tractable family of hidden Markov models that generate rich geometric patterns in neural activations. We find that attention heads carry out an algorithm with a natural interpretation in the probability simplex, and create representations with distinctive geometric structure. We show how both the algorithmic behavior and the underlying geometry of these representations can be theoretically predicted in detail -- including the attention pattern, OV-vectors, and embedding vectors -- by modifying the equations for optimal future token predictions to account for the architectural constraints of attention. Our approach provides a principled lens on how gradient descent resolves the tension between optimal prediction and architectural design.

In this manuscript, we study the learning of deep attention neural networks, defined as the composition of multiple self-attention layers, with tied and low-rank weights. We first establish a mapping of such models to sequence multi-index models, a generalization of the widely studied multi-index model to sequential covariates, for which we establish a number of general results. In the context of Bayesian-optimal learning, in the limit of large dimension $D$ and commensurably large number of samples $N$, we derive a sharp asymptotic characterization of the optimal performance as well as the performance of the best-known polynomial-time algorithm for this setting --namely approximate message-passing--, and characterize sharp thresholds on the minimal sample complexity required for better-than-random prediction performance. Our analysis uncovers, in particular, how the different layers are learned sequentially. Finally, we discuss how this sequential learning can also be observed in a realistic setup.

Large language models (LLMs) can exhibit undesirable and unexpected behavior in the blink of an eye. In a recent Anthropic demo, Claude switched from coding to Googling pictures of Yellowstone, and these sudden shifts in behavior have also been observed in reasoning patterns and jailbreaks. This phenomenon is not unique to autoregressive models: in diffusion models, key features of the final output are decided in narrow ``critical windows'' of the generation process. In this work we develop a simple, unifying theory to explain this phenomenon. We show that it emerges generically as the generation process localizes to a sub-population of the distribution it models. While critical windows have been studied at length in diffusion models, existing theory heavily relies on strong distributional assumptions and the particulars of Gaussian diffusion. In contrast to existing work our theory (1) applies to autoregressive and diffusion models; (2) makes no distributional assumptions; (3) quantitatively improves previous bounds even when specialized to diffusions; and (4) requires basic tools and no stochastic calculus or statistical physics-based machinery. We also identify an intriguing connection to the all-or-nothing phenomenon from statistical inference. Finally, we validate our predictions empirically for LLMs and find that critical windows often coincide with failures in problem solving for various math and reasoning benchmarks.