Summary: The paper proposes a novel approach to computationally efficient maximum likelihood learning in exponential families. In general, finding the maximum likelihood solution is intractable. From a convex optimization perspective, the sticking point is the need to calculate an integral wrt the currently proposed EF parameter. By assuming that MCMC is fast-mixing for all allowed parameters, the author(s) are able to show that the integrals needed for proximal gradient descent can be calculated with sufficient precision that, when combined with the results of Schmidt et al. (2011), a fully-polynomial randomized approximation scheme for calculating the MLE can be obtained. Both the convex and strongly convex cases are considered, which lead to different types of guarantees: the former on the likelihood error, the latter on the parameter error.

Probabilistic model checking traditionally verifies properties on the expected value of a measure of interest. This restriction may fail to capture the quality of service of a significant proportion of a system's runs, especially when the probability distribution of the measure of interest is poorly represented by its expected value due to heavy-tail behaviors or multiple modalities. Recent works inspired by distributional reinforcement learning use discrete histograms to approximate integer reward distribution, but they struggle with continuous reward space and present challenges in balancing accuracy and scalability. We propose a novel method for handling both continuous and discrete reward distributions in Discrete Time Markov Chains using moment matching with Erlang mixtures. By analytically deriving higher-order moments through Moment Generating Functions, our method approximates the reward distribution with theoretically bounded error while preserving the statistical properties of the true distribution. This detailed distributional insight enables the formulation and robust model checking of quality properties based on the entire reward distribution function, rather than restricting to its expected value. We include a theoretical foundation ensuring bounded approximation errors, along with an experimental evaluation demonstrating our method's accuracy and scalability in practical model-checking problems.

The asymptotic properties of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been extensively studied, particularly regarding their approximations by Gaussian processes in the infinite-width limit. We extend these results by showing that posterior BNNs can be approximated by Student-t processes, which offer greater flexibility in modeling uncertainty. Specifically, we show that, if the parameters of a BNN follow a Gaussian prior distribution, and the variance of both the last hidden layer and the Gaussian likelihood function follows an Inverse-Gamma prior distribution, then the resulting posterior BNN converges to a Student-t process in the infinite-width limit. Our proof leverages the Wasserstein metric to establish control over the convergence rate of the Student-t process approximation.

Synthetic data generation for tabular datasets must balance fidelity, efficiency, and versatility to meet the demands of real-world applications. We introduce the Tabular Auto-Regressive Generative Network (TabularARGN), a flexible framework designed to handle mixed-type, multivariate, and sequential datasets. By training on all possible conditional probabilities, TabularARGN supports advanced features such as fairness-aware generation, imputation, and conditional generation on any subset of columns. The framework achieves state-of-the-art synthetic data quality while significantly reducing training and inference times, making it ideal for large-scale datasets with diverse structures. Evaluated across established benchmarks, including realistic datasets with complex relationships, TabularARGN demonstrates its capability to synthesize high-quality data efficiently. By unifying flexibility and performance, this framework paves the way for practical synthetic data generation across industries.

Bad actors in the maritime industry engage in illegal behaviors after disabling their vessel's automatic identification system (AIS) - which makes finding such vessels difficult for analysts. Machine learning approaches only succeed in identifying the locations of these ``dark vessels'' in the immediate future. This work leverages ideas from the literature on abductive inference applied to locating adversarial agents to solve the problem. Specifically, we combine concepts from abduction, logic programming, and rule learning to create an efficient method that approaches full recall of dark vessels while requiring less search area than machine learning methods. We provide a logic-based paradigm for reasoning about maritime vessels, an abductive inference query method, an automatically extracted rule-based behavior model methodology, and a thorough suite of experiments.

Availability of datasets is a strong driver for research on 3D semantic understanding, and whilst obtaining unlabeled 3D point cloud data is straightforward, manually annotating this data with semantic labels is time-consuming and costly. Recently, Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) enable open-set semantic segmentation on camera images, potentially aiding automatic labeling. However,VFMs for 3D data have been limited to adaptations of 2D models, which can introduce inconsistencies to 3D labels. This work introduces Label Any Pointcloud (LeAP), leveraging 2D VFMs to automatically label 3D data with any set of classes in any kind of application whilst ensuring label consistency. Using a Bayesian update, point labels are combined into voxels to improve spatio-temporal consistency. A novel 3D Consistency Network (3D-CN) exploits 3D information to further improve label quality. Through various experiments, we show that our method can generate high-quality 3D semantic labels across diverse fields without any manual labeling. Further, models adapted to new domains using our labels show up to a 34.2 mIoU increase in semantic segmentation tasks.

In this paper we develop a pseudo Markov-chain model to understand time-elapsed flows, over multiple intervals, from time and space aggregated collective inter-location trip data, given as a time-series. Building on the model, we develop measures of mobility that parallel those known for individual mobility data, such as the radius of gyration. We apply these measures to the NetMob 2024 Data Challenge data, and obtain interesting results that are consistent with published statistics and commuting patterns in cities. Besides building a new framework, we foresee applications of this approach to an improved understanding of human mobility in the context of environmental changes and sustainable development.

This paper presents deep meta coordination graphs (DMCG) for learning cooperative policies in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). Coordination graph formulations encode local interactions and accordingly factorize the joint value function of all agents to improve efficiency in MARL. However, existing approaches rely solely on pairwise relations between agents, which potentially oversimplifies complex multi-agent interactions. DMCG goes beyond these simple direct interactions by also capturing useful higher-order and indirect relationships among agents. It generates novel graph structures accommodating multiple types of interactions and arbitrary lengths of multi-hop connections in coordination graphs to model such interactions. It then employs a graph convolutional network module to learn powerful representations in an end-to-end manner. We demonstrate its effectiveness in multiple coordination problems in MARL where other state-of-the-art methods can suffer from sample inefficiency or fail entirely. All codes can be found here: https://github.com/Nikunj-Gupta/dmcg-marl.

Similar to the Markov decision process (MDP) framework in discrete-time, the continuous-time controlled diffusion processes provide a natural framework for modeling such continuous-time decision-making problems. With discrete-time observations from the continuous-time dynamics, the continuous-time RL problem can be viewed as a discrete-time MDP, allowing us to apply standard techniques. In particular, the model-free RL algorithms offers flexibility of function approximation. By fitting the value function and/or control policy with powerful statistical learning models including neural networks, one can efficiently learn the optimal decisions in high-dimensional and complex environments. Despite the empirical success, however, the theoretical understanding of continuous-time RL algorithms is still in its infancy. In particular, when applied to continuous-time diffusion processes, the statistical guarantees for value learning algorithms are largely unknown. The theoretical gap also leads to practical limitations, as the fundamental tradeoffs in the choice of function approximations, discretization step length, and the trajectory length remain elusive. In this work, we aim to bridge this gap by providing sharp statistical guarantees for value function estimation in continuous-time diffusion processes.

We study online finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes with adversarially changing loss and aggregate bandit feedback (a.k.a full-bandit). Under this type of feedback, the agent observes only the total loss incurred over the entire trajectory, rather than the individual losses at each intermediate step within the trajectory. We introduce the first Policy Optimization algorithms for this setting. In the known-dynamics case, we achieve the first \textit{optimal} regret bound of $\tilde \Theta(H^2\sqrt{SAK})$, where $K$ is the number of episodes, $H$ is the episode horizon, $S$ is the number of states, and $A$ is the number of actions. In the unknown dynamics case we establish regret bound of $\tilde O(H^3 S \sqrt{AK})$, significantly improving the best known result by a factor of $H^2 S^5 A^2$.