Learning Graphical Models
TabularARGN: A Flexible and Efficient Auto-Regressive Framework for Generating High-Fidelity Synthetic Data
Tiwald, Paul, Krchova, Ivona, Sidorenko, Andrey, Vieyra, Mariana Vargas, Scriminaci, Mario, Platzer, Michael
Synthetic data generation for tabular datasets must balance fidelity, efficiency, and versatility to meet the demands of real-world applications. We introduce the Tabular Auto-Regressive Generative Network (TabularARGN), a flexible framework designed to handle mixed-type, multivariate, and sequential datasets. By training on all possible conditional probabilities, TabularARGN supports advanced features such as fairness-aware generation, imputation, and conditional generation on any subset of columns. The framework achieves state-of-the-art synthetic data quality while significantly reducing training and inference times, making it ideal for large-scale datasets with diverse structures. Evaluated across established benchmarks, including realistic datasets with complex relationships, TabularARGN demonstrates its capability to synthesize high-quality data efficiently. By unifying flexibility and performance, this framework paves the way for practical synthetic data generation across industries.
Sea-cret Agents: Maritime Abduction for Region Generation to Expose Dark Vessel Trajectories
Bavikadi, Divyagna, Lee, Nathaniel, Shakarian, Paulo, Parvis, Chad
Bad actors in the maritime industry engage in illegal behaviors after disabling their vessel's automatic identification system (AIS) - which makes finding such vessels difficult for analysts. Machine learning approaches only succeed in identifying the locations of these ``dark vessels'' in the immediate future. This work leverages ideas from the literature on abductive inference applied to locating adversarial agents to solve the problem. Specifically, we combine concepts from abduction, logic programming, and rule learning to create an efficient method that approaches full recall of dark vessels while requiring less search area than machine learning methods. We provide a logic-based paradigm for reasoning about maritime vessels, an abductive inference query method, an automatically extracted rule-based behavior model methodology, and a thorough suite of experiments.
LeAP: Consistent multi-domain 3D labeling using Foundation Models
Gebraad, Simon, Palffy, Andras, Caesar, Holger
Availability of datasets is a strong driver for research on 3D semantic understanding, and whilst obtaining unlabeled 3D point cloud data is straightforward, manually annotating this data with semantic labels is time-consuming and costly. Recently, Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) enable open-set semantic segmentation on camera images, potentially aiding automatic labeling. However,VFMs for 3D data have been limited to adaptations of 2D models, which can introduce inconsistencies to 3D labels. This work introduces Label Any Pointcloud (LeAP), leveraging 2D VFMs to automatically label 3D data with any set of classes in any kind of application whilst ensuring label consistency. Using a Bayesian update, point labels are combined into voxels to improve spatio-temporal consistency. A novel 3D Consistency Network (3D-CN) exploits 3D information to further improve label quality. Through various experiments, we show that our method can generate high-quality 3D semantic labels across diverse fields without any manual labeling. Further, models adapted to new domains using our labels show up to a 34.2 mIoU increase in semantic segmentation tasks.
A Pseudo Markov-Chain Model and Time-Elapsed Measures of Mobility from Collective Data
Foster, Alisha, Meyer, David A., Shakeel, Asif
In this paper we develop a pseudo Markov-chain model to understand time-elapsed flows, over multiple intervals, from time and space aggregated collective inter-location trip data, given as a time-series. Building on the model, we develop measures of mobility that parallel those known for individual mobility data, such as the radius of gyration. We apply these measures to the NetMob 2024 Data Challenge data, and obtain interesting results that are consistent with published statistics and commuting patterns in cities. Besides building a new framework, we foresee applications of this approach to an improved understanding of human mobility in the context of environmental changes and sustainable development.
Deep Meta Coordination Graphs for Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning
Gupta, Nikunj, Hare, James Zachary, Kannan, Rajgopal, Prasanna, Viktor
This paper presents deep meta coordination graphs (DMCG) for learning cooperative policies in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). Coordination graph formulations encode local interactions and accordingly factorize the joint value function of all agents to improve efficiency in MARL. However, existing approaches rely solely on pairwise relations between agents, which potentially oversimplifies complex multi-agent interactions. DMCG goes beyond these simple direct interactions by also capturing useful higher-order and indirect relationships among agents. It generates novel graph structures accommodating multiple types of interactions and arbitrary lengths of multi-hop connections in coordination graphs to model such interactions. It then employs a graph convolutional network module to learn powerful representations in an end-to-end manner. We demonstrate its effectiveness in multiple coordination problems in MARL where other state-of-the-art methods can suffer from sample inefficiency or fail entirely. All codes can be found here: https://github.com/Nikunj-Gupta/dmcg-marl.
Statistical guarantees for continuous-time policy evaluation: blessing of ellipticity and new tradeoffs
Similar to the Markov decision process (MDP) framework in discrete-time, the continuous-time controlled diffusion processes provide a natural framework for modeling such continuous-time decision-making problems. With discrete-time observations from the continuous-time dynamics, the continuous-time RL problem can be viewed as a discrete-time MDP, allowing us to apply standard techniques. In particular, the model-free RL algorithms offers flexibility of function approximation. By fitting the value function and/or control policy with powerful statistical learning models including neural networks, one can efficiently learn the optimal decisions in high-dimensional and complex environments. Despite the empirical success, however, the theoretical understanding of continuous-time RL algorithms is still in its infancy. In particular, when applied to continuous-time diffusion processes, the statistical guarantees for value learning algorithms are largely unknown. The theoretical gap also leads to practical limitations, as the fundamental tradeoffs in the choice of function approximations, discretization step length, and the trajectory length remain elusive. In this work, we aim to bridge this gap by providing sharp statistical guarantees for value function estimation in continuous-time diffusion processes.
Near-optimal Regret Using Policy Optimization in Online MDPs with Aggregate Bandit Feedback
Lancewicki, Tal, Mansour, Yishay
We study online finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes with adversarially changing loss and aggregate bandit feedback (a.k.a full-bandit). Under this type of feedback, the agent observes only the total loss incurred over the entire trajectory, rather than the individual losses at each intermediate step within the trajectory. We introduce the first Policy Optimization algorithms for this setting. In the known-dynamics case, we achieve the first \textit{optimal} regret bound of $\tilde \Theta(H^2\sqrt{SAK})$, where $K$ is the number of episodes, $H$ is the episode horizon, $S$ is the number of states, and $A$ is the number of actions. In the unknown dynamics case we establish regret bound of $\tilde O(H^3 S \sqrt{AK})$, significantly improving the best known result by a factor of $H^2 S^5 A^2$.
Temporal Distribution Shift in Real-World Pharmaceutical Data: Implications for Uncertainty Quantification in QSAR Models
Friesacher, Hannah Rosa, Svensson, Emma, Winiwarter, Susanne, Mervin, Lewis, Arany, Adam, Engkvist, Ola
The estimation of uncertainties associated with predictions from quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models can accelerate the drug discovery process by identifying promising experiments and allowing an efficient allocation of resources. Several computational tools exist that estimate the predictive uncertainty in machine learning models. However, deviations from the i.i.d. setting have been shown to impair the performance of these uncertainty quantification methods. We use a real-world pharmaceutical dataset to address the pressing need for a comprehensive, large-scale evaluation of uncertainty estimation methods in the context of realistic distribution shifts over time. We investigate the performance of several uncertainty estimation methods, including ensemble-based and Bayesian approaches. Furthermore, we use this real-world setting to systematically assess the distribution shifts in label and descriptor space and their impact on the capability of the uncertainty estimation methods. Our study reveals significant shifts over time in both label and descriptor space and a clear connection between the magnitude of the shift and the nature of the assay. Moreover, we show that pronounced distribution shifts impair the performance of popular uncertainty estimation methods used in QSAR models. This work highlights the challenges of identifying uncertainty quantification methods that remain reliable under distribution shifts introduced by real-world data.
PAGNet: Pluggable Adaptive Generative Networks for Information Completion in Multi-Agent Communication
Zhang, Zhuohui, Cheng, Bin, Wang, Zhipeng, Zhou, Yanmin, Li, Gang, Lu, Ping, He, Bin, Chen, Jie
For partially observable cooperative tasks, multi-agent systems must develop effective communication and understand the interplay among agents in order to achieve cooperative goals. However, existing multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) with communication methods lack evaluation metrics for information weights and information-level communication modeling. This causes agents to neglect the aggregation of multiple messages, thereby significantly reducing policy learning efficiency. In this paper, we propose pluggable adaptive generative networks (PAGNet), a novel framework that integrates generative models into MARL to enhance communication and decision-making. PAGNet enables agents to synthesize global states representations from weighted local observations and use these representations alongside learned communication weights for coordinated decision-making. This pluggable approach reduces the computational demands typically associated with the joint training of communication and policy networks. Extensive experimental evaluations across diverse benchmarks and communication scenarios demonstrate the significant performance improvements achieved by PAGNet. Furthermore, we analyze the emergent communication patterns and the quality of generated global states, providing insights into operational mechanisms.
On the importance of structural identifiability for machine learning with partially observed dynamical systems
Norden, Janis, Oostwal, Elisa, Chappell, Michael, Tino, Peter, Bunte, Kerstin
The successful application of modern machine learning for time series classification is often hampered by limitations in quality and quantity of available training data. To overcome these limitations, available domain expert knowledge in the form of parametrised mechanistic dynamical models can be used whenever it is available and time series observations may be represented as an element from a given class of parametrised dynamical models. This makes the learning process interpretable and allows the modeller to deal with sparsely and irregularly sampled data in a natural way. However, the internal processes of a dynamical model are often only partially observed. This can lead to ambiguity regarding which particular model realization best explains a given time series observation. This problem is well-known in the literature, and a dynamical model with this issue is referred to as structurally unidentifiable. Training a classifier that incorporates knowledge about a structurally unidentifiable dynamical model can negatively influence classification performance. To address this issue, we employ structural identifiability analysis to explicitly relate parameter configurations that are associated with identical system outputs. Using the derived relations in classifier training, we demonstrate that this method significantly improves the classifier's ability to generalize to unseen data on a number of example models from the biomedical domain. This effect is especially pronounced when the number of training instances is limited. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for structural identifiability, a topic that has received relatively little attention from the machine learning community.