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 Learning Graphical Models


Towards Empowerment Gain through Causal Structure Learning in Model-Based RL

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL), incorporating causal structures into dynamics models provides agents with a structured understanding of the environments, enabling efficient decision. Empowerment as an intrinsic motivation enhances the ability of agents to actively control their environments by maximizing the mutual information between future states and actions. We posit that empowerment coupled with causal understanding can improve controllability, while enhanced empowerment gain can further facilitate causal reasoning in MBRL. To improve learning efficiency and controllability, we propose a novel framework, Empowerment through Causal Learning (ECL), where an agent with the awareness of causal dynamics models achieves empowerment-driven exploration and optimizes its causal structure for task learning. Specifically, ECL operates by first training a causal dynamics model of the environment based on collected data. We then maximize empowerment under the causal structure for exploration, simultaneously using data gathered through exploration to update causal dynamics model to be more controllable than dense dynamics model without causal structure. In downstream task learning, an intrinsic curiosity reward is included to balance the causality, mitigating overfitting. Importantly, ECL is method-agnostic and is capable of integrating various causal discovery methods. We evaluate ECL combined with 3 causal discovery methods across 6 environments including pixel-based tasks, demonstrating its superior performance compared to other causal MBRL methods, in terms of causal discovery, sample efficiency, and asymptotic performance.


Modern Hopfield Networks with Continuous-Time Memories

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent research has established a connection between modern Hopfield networks (HNs) and transformer attention heads, with guarantees of exponential storage capacity. However, these models still face challenges scaling storage efficiently. Inspired by psychological theories of continuous neural resource allocation in working memory, we propose an approach that compresses large discrete Hopfield memories into smaller, continuous-time memories. Leveraging continuous attention, our new energy function modifies the update rule of HNs, replacing the traditional softmax-based probability mass function with a probability density, over the continuous memory. This formulation aligns with modern perspectives on human executive function, offering a principled link between attractor dynamics in working memory and resource-efficient memory allocation. Our framework maintains competitive performance with HNs while leveraging a compressed memory, reducing computational costs across synthetic and video datasets.


STMA: A Spatio-Temporal Memory Agent for Long-Horizon Embodied Task Planning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A key objective of embodied intelligence is enabling agents to perform long-horizon tasks in dynamic environments while maintaining robust decision-making and adaptability. To achieve this goal, we propose the Spatio-Temporal Memory Agent (STMA), a novel framework designed to enhance task planning and execution by integrating spatio-temporal memory. STMA is built upon three critical components: (1) a spatio-temporal memory module that captures historical and environmental changes in real time, (2) a dynamic knowledge graph that facilitates adaptive spatial reasoning, and (3) a planner-critic mechanism that iteratively refines task strategies. We evaluate STMA in the TextWorld environment on 32 tasks, involving multi-step planning and exploration under varying levels of complexity. Experimental results demonstrate that STMA achieves a 31.25% improvement in success rate and a 24.7% increase in average score compared to the state-of-the-art model. The results highlight the effectiveness of spatio-temporal memory in advancing the memory capabilities of embodied agents.


From Markov to Laplace: How Mamba In-Context Learns Markov Chains

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While transformer-based language models have driven the AI revolution thus far, their computational complexity has spurred growing interest in viable alternatives, such as structured state space sequence models (SSMs) and Selective SSMs. Among these, Mamba (S6) and its variant Mamba-2 have shown remarkable inference speed ups over transformers while achieving comparable or superior performance on complex language modeling tasks. However, despite these architectural innovations and empirical successes, the fundamental learning capabilities of Mamba remain poorly understood. In this paper, we address this gap by studying in-context learning (ICL) on Markov chains and uncovering a surprising phenomenon: unlike transformers, even a single-layer Mamba efficiently learns the in-context Laplacian smoothing estimator, which is both Bayes and minimax optimal, for all Markovian orders. To explain this, we theoretically characterize the representation capacity of Mamba and reveal the fundamental role of convolution in enabling it to represent the optimal Laplacian smoothing. These theoretical insights align strongly with empirical results and, to the best of our knowledge, represent the first formal connection between Mamba and optimal statistical estimators. Finally, we outline promising research directions inspired by these findings.


Do Large Language Models Reason Causally Like Us? Even Better?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal reasoning is a core component of intelligence. Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities in generating human-like text, raising questions about whether their responses reflect true understanding or statistical patterns. We compared causal reasoning in humans and four LLMs using tasks based on collider graphs, rating the likelihood of a query variable occurring given evidence from other variables. We find that LLMs reason causally along a spectrum from human-like to normative inference, with alignment shifting based on model, context, and task. Overall, GPT-4o and Claude showed the most normative behavior, including "explaining away", whereas Gemini-Pro and GPT-3.5 did not. Although all agents deviated from the expected independence of causes - Claude the least - they exhibited strong associative reasoning and predictive inference when assessing the likelihood of the effect given its causes. These findings underscore the need to assess AI biases as they increasingly assist human decision-making.


Fenchel-Young Variational Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

From a variational perspective, many statistical learning criteria involve seeking a distribution that balances empirical risk and regularization. In this paper, we broaden this perspective by introducing a new general class of variational methods based on Fenchel-Young (FY) losses, treated as divergences that generalize (and encompass) the familiar Kullback-Leibler divergence at the core of classical variational learning. Our proposed formulation -- FY variational learning -- includes as key ingredients new notions of FY free energy, FY evidence, FY evidence lower bound, and FY posterior. We derive alternating minimization and gradient backpropagation algorithms to compute (or lower bound) the FY evidence, which enables learning a wider class of models than previous variational formulations. This leads to generalized FY variants of classical algorithms, such as an FY expectation-maximization (FYEM) algorithm, and latent-variable models, such as an FY variational autoencoder (FYVAE). Our new methods are shown to be empirically competitive, often outperforming their classical counterparts, and most importantly, to have qualitatively novel features. For example, FYEM has an adaptively sparse E-step, while the FYVAE can support models with sparse observations and sparse posteriors.


BeamDojo: Learning Agile Humanoid Locomotion on Sparse Footholds

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traversing risky terrains with sparse footholds poses a significant challenge for humanoid robots, requiring precise foot placements and stable locomotion. Existing approaches designed for quadrupedal robots often fail to generalize to humanoid robots due to differences in foot geometry and unstable morphology, while learning-based approaches for humanoid locomotion still face great challenges on complex terrains due to sparse foothold reward signals and inefficient learning processes. To address these challenges, we introduce BeamDojo, a reinforcement learning (RL) framework designed for enabling agile humanoid locomotion on sparse footholds. BeamDojo begins by introducing a sampling-based foothold reward tailored for polygonal feet, along with a double critic to balancing the learning process between dense locomotion rewards and sparse foothold rewards. To encourage sufficient trail-and-error exploration, BeamDojo incorporates a two-stage RL approach: the first stage relaxes the terrain dynamics by training the humanoid on flat terrain while providing it with task terrain perceptive observations, and the second stage fine-tunes the policy on the actual task terrain. Moreover, we implement a onboard LiDAR-based elevation map to enable real-world deployment. Extensive simulation and real-world experiments demonstrate that BeamDojo achieves efficient learning in simulation and enables agile locomotion with precise foot placement on sparse footholds in the real world, maintaining a high success rate even under significant external disturbances.


Statistical modeling of categorical trajectories with multivariate functional principal components

arXiv.org Machine Learning

There are many examples in which the statistical units of interest are samples of a continuous time categorical random process, that is to say a continuous time stochastic process taking values in a finite state space. Without loosing any information, we associate to each state a binary random function, taking values in $\{0,1\}$, and turn the problem of statistical modeling of a categorical process into a multivariate functional data analysis issue. The (multivariate) covariance operator has nice interpretations in terms of departure from independence of the joint probabilities and the multivariate functional principal components are simple to interpret. Under the weak hypothesis assuming only continuity in probability of the $0-1$ trajectories, it is simple to build consistent estimators of the covariance kernel and perform multivariate functional principal components analysis. The sample paths being piecewise constant, with a finite number of jumps, this a rare case in functional data analysis in which the trajectories can be observed exhaustively. The approach is illustrated on a data set of sensory perceptions, considering different gustometer-controlled stimuli experiments. We show how it can be easily extended to analyze experiments, such as temporal check-all-that-apply, in which two states or more can be observed at the same time.


Revisiting the Berkeley Admissions data: Statistical Tests for Causal Hypotheses

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Reasoning about fairness through correlation-based notions is rife with pitfalls. The 1973 University of California, Berkeley graduate school admissions case from Bickel et. al. (1975) is a classic example of one such pitfall, namely Simpson's paradox. The discrepancy in admission rates among males and female applicants, in the aggregate data over all departments, vanishes when admission rates per department are examined. We reason about the Berkeley graduate school admissions case through a causal lens. In the process, we introduce a statistical test for causal hypothesis testing based on Pearl's instrumental-variable inequalities (Pearl 1995). We compare different causal notions of fairness that are based on graphical, counterfactual and interventional queries on the causal model, and develop statistical tests for these notions that use only observational data. We study the logical relations between notions, and show that while notions may not be equivalent, their corresponding statistical tests coincide for the case at hand. We believe that a thorough case-based causal analysis helps develop a more principled understanding of both causal hypothesis testing and fairness.


A Latent Causal Inference Framework for Ordinal Variables

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Ordinal variables, such as on the Likert scale, are common in applied research. Yet, existing methods for causal inference tend to target nominal or continuous data. When applied to ordinal data, this fails to account for the inherent ordering or imposes well-defined relative magnitudes. Hence, there is a need for specialised methods to compute interventional effects between ordinal variables while accounting for their ordinality. One potential framework is to presume a latent Gaussian Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) model: that the ordinal variables originate from marginally discretizing a set of Gaussian variables whose latent covariance matrix is constrained to satisfy the conditional independencies inherent in a DAG. Conditioned on a given latent covariance matrix and discretisation thresholds, we derive a closed-form function for ordinal causal effects in terms of interventional distributions in the latent space. Our causal estimation combines naturally with algorithms to learn the latent DAG and its parameters, like the Ordinal Structural EM algorithm. Simulations demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach in estimating ordinal causal effects both for known and unknown structures of the latent graph. As an illustration of a real-world use case, the method is applied to survey data of 408 patients from a study on the functional relationships between symptoms of obsessive-compulsive disorder and depression.