Learning Graphical Models
Large Language Models for Causal Discovery: Current Landscape and Future Directions
Wan, Guangya, Lu, Yunsheng, Wu, Yuqi, Hu, Mengxuan, Li, Sheng
Causal discovery (CD) and Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as transformative fields in artificial intelligence that have evolved largely independently. While CD specializes in uncovering cause-effect relationships from data, and LLMs excel at natural language processing and generation, their integration presents unique opportunities for advancing causal understanding. This survey examines how LLMs are transforming CD across three key dimensions: direct causal extraction from text, integration of domain knowledge into statistical methods, and refinement of causal structures. We systematically analyze approaches that leverage LLMs for CD tasks, highlighting their innovative use of metadata and natural language for causal inference. Our analysis reveals both LLMs' potential to enhance traditional CD methods and their current limitations as imperfect expert systems. We identify key research gaps, outline evaluation frameworks and benchmarks for LLM-based causal discovery, and advocate future research efforts for leveraging LLMs in causality research. As the first comprehensive examination of the synergy between LLMs and CD, this work lays the groundwork for future advances in the field.
A Unified Evaluation Framework for Epistemic Predictions
Manchingal, Shireen Kudukkil, Mubashar, Muhammad, Wang, Kaizheng, Cuzzolin, Fabio
X Y the available training set, diverse, ranging from single point estimates N being the number of training instances. In Bayesian (often averaged over prediction samples) to Neural Networks (BNNs) (Buntine and Weigend, 1991; predictive distributions, to set-valued or Neal, 2012; Jospin et al., 2022; Kingma and Welling, credal-set representations. We propose a novel 2013), this uncertainty is explicitly represented through unified evaluation framework for uncertaintyaware posterior predictive distributions over the parameter classifiers, applicable to a wide range space. In Deep Ensembles (DEs) (Lakshminarayanan of model classes, which allows users to tailor et al., 2017), a predictive distribution is formed by the trade-off between accuracy and precision aggregating the individual predictions generated by of predictions via a suitably designed performance multiple independently trained models.
Explain Yourself, Briefly! Self-Explaining Neural Networks with Concise Sufficient Reasons
Bassan, Shahaf, Eliav, Ron, Gur, Shlomit
*Minimal sufficient reasons* represent a prevalent form of explanation - the smallest subset of input features which, when held constant at their corresponding values, ensure that the prediction remains unchanged. Previous *post-hoc* methods attempt to obtain such explanations but face two main limitations: (1) Obtaining these subsets poses a computational challenge, leading most scalable methods to converge towards suboptimal, less meaningful subsets; (2) These methods heavily rely on sampling out-of-distribution input assignments, potentially resulting in counterintuitive behaviors. To tackle these limitations, we propose in this work a self-supervised training approach, which we term *sufficient subset training* (SST). Using SST, we train models to generate concise sufficient reasons for their predictions as an integral part of their output. Our results indicate that our framework produces succinct and faithful subsets substantially more efficiently than competing post-hoc methods, while maintaining comparable predictive performance.
Towards Empowerment Gain through Causal Structure Learning in Model-Based RL
Cao, Hongye, Feng, Fan, Fang, Meng, Dong, Shaokang, Yang, Tianpei, Huo, Jing, Gao, Yang
In Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL), incorporating causal structures into dynamics models provides agents with a structured understanding of the environments, enabling efficient decision. Empowerment as an intrinsic motivation enhances the ability of agents to actively control their environments by maximizing the mutual information between future states and actions. We posit that empowerment coupled with causal understanding can improve controllability, while enhanced empowerment gain can further facilitate causal reasoning in MBRL. To improve learning efficiency and controllability, we propose a novel framework, Empowerment through Causal Learning (ECL), where an agent with the awareness of causal dynamics models achieves empowerment-driven exploration and optimizes its causal structure for task learning. Specifically, ECL operates by first training a causal dynamics model of the environment based on collected data. We then maximize empowerment under the causal structure for exploration, simultaneously using data gathered through exploration to update causal dynamics model to be more controllable than dense dynamics model without causal structure. In downstream task learning, an intrinsic curiosity reward is included to balance the causality, mitigating overfitting. Importantly, ECL is method-agnostic and is capable of integrating various causal discovery methods. We evaluate ECL combined with 3 causal discovery methods across 6 environments including pixel-based tasks, demonstrating its superior performance compared to other causal MBRL methods, in terms of causal discovery, sample efficiency, and asymptotic performance.
Modern Hopfield Networks with Continuous-Time Memories
Santos, Saul, Farinhas, António, McNamee, Daniel C., Martins, André F. T.
Recent research has established a connection between modern Hopfield networks (HNs) and transformer attention heads, with guarantees of exponential storage capacity. However, these models still face challenges scaling storage efficiently. Inspired by psychological theories of continuous neural resource allocation in working memory, we propose an approach that compresses large discrete Hopfield memories into smaller, continuous-time memories. Leveraging continuous attention, our new energy function modifies the update rule of HNs, replacing the traditional softmax-based probability mass function with a probability density, over the continuous memory. This formulation aligns with modern perspectives on human executive function, offering a principled link between attractor dynamics in working memory and resource-efficient memory allocation. Our framework maintains competitive performance with HNs while leveraging a compressed memory, reducing computational costs across synthetic and video datasets.
STMA: A Spatio-Temporal Memory Agent for Long-Horizon Embodied Task Planning
Lei, Mingcong, Zhao, Yiming, Wang, Ge, Mai, Zhixin, Cui, Shuguang, Han, Yatong, Ren, Jinke
A key objective of embodied intelligence is enabling agents to perform long-horizon tasks in dynamic environments while maintaining robust decision-making and adaptability. To achieve this goal, we propose the Spatio-Temporal Memory Agent (STMA), a novel framework designed to enhance task planning and execution by integrating spatio-temporal memory. STMA is built upon three critical components: (1) a spatio-temporal memory module that captures historical and environmental changes in real time, (2) a dynamic knowledge graph that facilitates adaptive spatial reasoning, and (3) a planner-critic mechanism that iteratively refines task strategies. We evaluate STMA in the TextWorld environment on 32 tasks, involving multi-step planning and exploration under varying levels of complexity. Experimental results demonstrate that STMA achieves a 31.25% improvement in success rate and a 24.7% increase in average score compared to the state-of-the-art model. The results highlight the effectiveness of spatio-temporal memory in advancing the memory capabilities of embodied agents.
From Markov to Laplace: How Mamba In-Context Learns Markov Chains
Bondaschi, Marco, Rajaraman, Nived, Wei, Xiuying, Ramchandran, Kannan, Pascanu, Razvan, Gulcehre, Caglar, Gastpar, Michael, Makkuva, Ashok Vardhan
While transformer-based language models have driven the AI revolution thus far, their computational complexity has spurred growing interest in viable alternatives, such as structured state space sequence models (SSMs) and Selective SSMs. Among these, Mamba (S6) and its variant Mamba-2 have shown remarkable inference speed ups over transformers while achieving comparable or superior performance on complex language modeling tasks. However, despite these architectural innovations and empirical successes, the fundamental learning capabilities of Mamba remain poorly understood. In this paper, we address this gap by studying in-context learning (ICL) on Markov chains and uncovering a surprising phenomenon: unlike transformers, even a single-layer Mamba efficiently learns the in-context Laplacian smoothing estimator, which is both Bayes and minimax optimal, for all Markovian orders. To explain this, we theoretically characterize the representation capacity of Mamba and reveal the fundamental role of convolution in enabling it to represent the optimal Laplacian smoothing. These theoretical insights align strongly with empirical results and, to the best of our knowledge, represent the first formal connection between Mamba and optimal statistical estimators. Finally, we outline promising research directions inspired by these findings.
Do Large Language Models Reason Causally Like Us? Even Better?
Dettki, Hanna M., Lake, Brenden M., Wu, Charley M., Rehder, Bob
Causal reasoning is a core component of intelligence. Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities in generating human-like text, raising questions about whether their responses reflect true understanding or statistical patterns. We compared causal reasoning in humans and four LLMs using tasks based on collider graphs, rating the likelihood of a query variable occurring given evidence from other variables. We find that LLMs reason causally along a spectrum from human-like to normative inference, with alignment shifting based on model, context, and task. Overall, GPT-4o and Claude showed the most normative behavior, including "explaining away", whereas Gemini-Pro and GPT-3.5 did not. Although all agents deviated from the expected independence of causes - Claude the least - they exhibited strong associative reasoning and predictive inference when assessing the likelihood of the effect given its causes. These findings underscore the need to assess AI biases as they increasingly assist human decision-making.
Fenchel-Young Variational Learning
Sklaviadis, Sophia, Agrawal, Sweta, Farinhas, Antonio, Martins, Andre, Figueiredo, Mario
From a variational perspective, many statistical learning criteria involve seeking a distribution that balances empirical risk and regularization. In this paper, we broaden this perspective by introducing a new general class of variational methods based on Fenchel-Young (FY) losses, treated as divergences that generalize (and encompass) the familiar Kullback-Leibler divergence at the core of classical variational learning. Our proposed formulation -- FY variational learning -- includes as key ingredients new notions of FY free energy, FY evidence, FY evidence lower bound, and FY posterior. We derive alternating minimization and gradient backpropagation algorithms to compute (or lower bound) the FY evidence, which enables learning a wider class of models than previous variational formulations. This leads to generalized FY variants of classical algorithms, such as an FY expectation-maximization (FYEM) algorithm, and latent-variable models, such as an FY variational autoencoder (FYVAE). Our new methods are shown to be empirically competitive, often outperforming their classical counterparts, and most importantly, to have qualitatively novel features. For example, FYEM has an adaptively sparse E-step, while the FYVAE can support models with sparse observations and sparse posteriors.
BeamDojo: Learning Agile Humanoid Locomotion on Sparse Footholds
Wang, Huayi, Wang, Zirui, Ren, Junli, Ben, Qingwei, Huang, Tao, Zhang, Weinan, Pang, Jiangmiao
Traversing risky terrains with sparse footholds poses a significant challenge for humanoid robots, requiring precise foot placements and stable locomotion. Existing approaches designed for quadrupedal robots often fail to generalize to humanoid robots due to differences in foot geometry and unstable morphology, while learning-based approaches for humanoid locomotion still face great challenges on complex terrains due to sparse foothold reward signals and inefficient learning processes. To address these challenges, we introduce BeamDojo, a reinforcement learning (RL) framework designed for enabling agile humanoid locomotion on sparse footholds. BeamDojo begins by introducing a sampling-based foothold reward tailored for polygonal feet, along with a double critic to balancing the learning process between dense locomotion rewards and sparse foothold rewards. To encourage sufficient trail-and-error exploration, BeamDojo incorporates a two-stage RL approach: the first stage relaxes the terrain dynamics by training the humanoid on flat terrain while providing it with task terrain perceptive observations, and the second stage fine-tunes the policy on the actual task terrain. Moreover, we implement a onboard LiDAR-based elevation map to enable real-world deployment. Extensive simulation and real-world experiments demonstrate that BeamDojo achieves efficient learning in simulation and enables agile locomotion with precise foot placement on sparse footholds in the real world, maintaining a high success rate even under significant external disturbances.