In this paper, we propose an improved online confidence bound for multinomial logistic (MNL) models and apply this result to MNL bandits, achieving variance-dependent optimal regret. Recently, Lee & Oh (2024) established an online confidence bound for MNL models and achieved nearly minimax-optimal regret in MNL bandits. However, their results still depend on the norm-boundedness of the unknown parameter $B$ and the maximum size of possible outcomes $K$. To address this, we first derive an online confidence bound of $O\left(\sqrt{d \log t} + B \right)$, which is a significant improvement over the previous bound of $O (B \sqrt{d} \log t \log K )$ (Lee & Oh, 2024). This is mainly achieved by establishing tighter self-concordant properties of the MNL loss and introducing a novel intermediary term to bound the estimation error. Using this new online confidence bound, we propose a constant-time algorithm, OFU-MNL++, which achieves a variance-dependent regret bound of $O \Big( d \log T \sqrt{ \smash[b]{\sum_{t=1}^T} \sigma_t^2 } \Big) $ for sufficiently large $T$, where $\sigma_t^2$ denotes the variance of the rewards at round $t$, $d$ is the dimension of the contexts, and $T$ is the total number of rounds. Furthermore, we introduce a Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE)-based algorithm, OFU-MN$^2$L, which achieves an anytime poly(B)-free regret of $O \Big( d \log (BT) \sqrt{ \smash[b]{\sum_{t=1}^T} \sigma_t^2 } \Big) $.

In this paper, we consider the risk-sensitive cost criterion with exponentiated costs for Markov decision processes and develop a model-free policy gradient algorithm in this setting. Unlike additive cost criteria such as average or discounted cost, the risk-sensitive cost criterion is less studied due to the complexity resulting from the multiplicative structure of the resulting Bellman equation. We develop an actor-critic algorithm with function approximation in this setting and provide its asymptotic convergence analysis. We also show the results of numerical experiments that demonstrate the superiority in performance of our algorithm over other recent algorithms in the literature.

Bayesian and frequentist inference are two fundamental paradigms in statistical estimation. Bayesian methods treat hypotheses as random variables, incorporating priors and updating beliefs via Bayes' theorem, whereas frequentist methods assume fixed but unknown hypotheses, relying on estimators like maximum likelihood. While extensive research has compared these approaches, the frequentist paradigm of obtaining point estimates has become predominant in deep learning, as Bayesian inference is challenging due to the computational complexity and the approximation gap of posterior estimation methods. However, a good understanding of trade-offs between the two approaches is lacking in the regime of amortized estimators, where in-context learners are trained to estimate either point values via maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori estimation, or full posteriors using normalizing flows, score-based diffusion samplers, or diagonal Gaussian approximations, conditioned on observations. To help resolve this, we conduct a rigorous comparative analysis spanning diverse problem settings, from linear models to shallow neural networks, with a robust evaluation framework assessing both in-distribution and out-of-distribution generalization on tractable tasks. Our experiments indicate that amortized point estimators generally outperform posterior inference, though the latter remain competitive in some low-dimensional problems, and we further discuss why this might be the case.

The foundation model enables general-purpose problem-solving and enjoys desirable rapid adaptation due to its adopted cross-task generalization paradigms, e.g., pretraining, meta-training, and finetuning. Recent advances in these paradigms show the crucial role of challenging tasks' prioritized sampling in enhancing adaptation robustness. However, ranking task difficulties exhausts massive task queries to evaluate, thus computation and annotation intensive, which is typically unaffordable in practice. This work underscores the criticality of both adaptation robustness and learning efficiency, especially in scenarios where tasks are risky or costly to evaluate, e.g., policy evaluations in Markov decision processes (MDPs) or inference with large models. To this end, we present Model Predictive Task Sampling (MPTS) to establish connections between the task space and adaptation risk landscape to form a theoretical guideline in robust active task sampling. MPTS characterizes the task episodic information with a generative model and directly predicts task-specific adaptation risk values from posterior inference. The developed risk learner can amortize expensive evaluation and provably approximately rank task difficulties in the pursuit of task robust adaptation. MPTS can be seamlessly integrated into zero-shot, few-shot, and many-shot learning paradigms. Extensive experimental results are conducted to exhibit the superiority of the proposed framework, remarkably increasing task adaptation robustness and retaining learning efficiency in contrast to existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. The code is available at the project site https://github.com/thu-rllab/MPTS.

Explainable AI (XAI) aims to provide insights into the decisions made by AI models. To date, most XAI approaches provide only one-time, static explanations, which cannot cater to users' diverse knowledge levels and information needs. Conversational explanations have been proposed as an effective method to customize XAI explanations. However, building conversational explanation systems is hindered by the scarcity of training data. Training with synthetic data faces two main challenges: lack of data diversity and hallucination in the generated data. To alleviate these issues, we introduce a repetition penalty to promote data diversity and exploit a hallucination detector to filter out untruthful synthetic conversation turns. We conducted both automatic and human evaluations on the proposed system, fEw-shot Multi-round ConvErsational Explanation (EMCEE). For automatic evaluation, EMCEE achieves relative improvements of 81.6% in BLEU and 80.5% in ROUGE compared to the baselines. EMCEE also mitigates the degeneration of data quality caused by training on synthetic data. In human evaluations (N=60), EMCEE outperforms baseline models and the control group in improving users' comprehension, acceptance, trust, and collaboration with static explanations by large margins. Through a fine-grained analysis of model responses, we further demonstrate that training on self-generated synthetic data improves the model's ability to generate more truthful and understandable answers, leading to better user interactions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first conversational explanation method that can answer free-form user questions following static explanations.

We study the sample complexity of finding an $\varepsilon$-optimal policy in average-reward Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with a generative model. The minimax optimal span-based complexity of $\widetilde{O}(SAH/\varepsilon^2)$, where $H$ is the span of the optimal bias function, has only been achievable with prior knowledge of the value of $H$. Prior-knowledge-free algorithms have been the objective of intensive research, but several natural approaches provably fail to achieve this goal. We resolve this problem, developing the first algorithms matching the optimal span-based complexity without $H$ knowledge, both when the dataset size is fixed and when the suboptimality level $\varepsilon$ is fixed. Our main technique combines the discounted reduction approach with a method for automatically tuning the effective horizon based on empirical confidence intervals or lower bounds on performance, which we term horizon calibration. We also develop an empirical span penalization approach, inspired by sample variance penalization, which satisfies an oracle inequality performance guarantee. In particular this algorithm can outperform the minimax complexity in benign settings such as when there exist near-optimal policies with span much smaller than $H$.

Classification with imbalanced data is a common challenge in data analysis, where certain classes (minority classes) account for a small fraction of the training data compared with other classes (majority classes). Classical statistical theory based on large-sample asymptotics and finite-sample corrections is often ineffective for high-dimensional data, leaving many overfitting phenomena in empirical machine learning unexplained. In this paper, we develop a statistical theory for high-dimensional imbalanced classification by investigating support vector machines and logistic regression. We find that dimensionality induces truncation or skewing effects on the logit distribution, which we characterize via a variational problem under high-dimensional asymptotics. In particular, for linearly separable data generated from a two-component Gaussian mixture model, the logits from each class follow a normal distribution $\mathsf{N}(0,1)$ on the testing set, but asymptotically follow a rectified normal distribution $\max\{\kappa, \mathsf{N}(0,1)\}$ on the training set -- which is a pervasive phenomenon we verified on tabular data, image data, and text data. This phenomenon explains why the minority class is more severely affected by overfitting. Further, we show that margin rebalancing, which incorporates class sizes into the loss function, is crucial for mitigating the accuracy drop for the minority class. Our theory also provides insights into the effects of overfitting on calibration and other uncertain quantification measures.

The MITRE ATT&CK framework is a widely adopted tool for enhancing cybersecurity, supporting threat intelligence, incident response, attack modeling, and vulnerability prioritization. This paper synthesizes research on its application across these domains by analyzing 417 peer-reviewed publications. We identify commonly used adversarial tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) and examine the integration of natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning (ML) with ATT&CK to improve threat detection and response. Additionally, we explore the interoperability of ATT&CK with other frameworks, such as the Cyber Kill Chain, NIST guidelines, and STRIDE, highlighting its versatility. The paper further evaluates the framework from multiple perspectives, including its effectiveness, validation methods, and sector-specific challenges, particularly in industrial control systems (ICS) and healthcare. We conclude by discussing current limitations and proposing future research directions to enhance the applicability of ATT&CK in dynamic cybersecurity environments.

Causal discovery is a structured prediction task that aims to predict causal relations among variables based on their data samples. Supervised Causal Learning (SCL) is an emerging paradigm in this field. Existing Deep Neural Network (DNN)-based methods commonly adopt the "Node-Edge approach", in which the model first computes an embedding vector for each variable-node, then uses these variable-wise representations to concurrently and independently predict for each directed causal-edge. In this paper, we first show that this architecture has some systematic bias that cannot be mitigated regardless of model size and data size. We then propose SiCL, a DNN-based SCL method that predicts a skeleton matrix together with a v-tensor (a third-order tensor representing the v-structures). According to the Markov Equivalence Class (MEC) theory, both the skeleton and the v-structures are identifiable causal structures under the canonical MEC setting, so predictions about skeleton and v-structures do not suffer from the identifiability limit in causal discovery, thus SiCL can avoid the systematic bias in Node-Edge architecture, and enable consistent estimators for causal discovery. Moreover, SiCL is also equipped with a specially designed pairwise encoder module with a unidirectional attention layer to model both internal and external relationships of pairs of nodes. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world benchmarks show that SiCL significantly outperforms other DNN-based SCL approaches.

Across many domains of science, stochastic models are an essential tool to understand the mechanisms underlying empirically observed data. Models can be of different levels of detail and accuracy, with models of high-fidelity (i.e., high accuracy) to the phenomena under study being often preferable. However, inferring parameters of high-fidelity models via simulation-based inference is challenging, especially when the simulator is computationally expensive. We introduce MF-NPE, a multifidelity approach to neural posterior estimation that leverages inexpensive low-fidelity simulations to infer parameters of high-fidelity simulators within a limited simulation budget. MF-NPE performs neural posterior estimation with limited high-fidelity resources by virtue of transfer learning, with the ability to prioritize individual observations using active learning. On one statistical task with analytical ground-truth and two real-world tasks, MF-NPE shows comparable performance to current approaches while requiring up to two orders of magnitude fewer high-fidelity simulations. Overall, MF-NPE opens new opportunities to perform efficient Bayesian inference on computationally expensive simulators.