Off-policy evaluation can leverage logged data to estimate the effectiveness of new policies in e-commerce, search engines, media streaming services, or automatic diagnostic tools in healthcare. However, the performance of baseline off-policy estimators like IPS deteriorates when the logging policy significantly differs from the evaluation policy. Recent work proposes sharing information across similar actions to mitigate this problem. In this work, we propose an alternative estimator that shares information across similar contexts using clustering. We study the theoretical properties of the proposed estimator, characterizing its bias and variance under different conditions. We also compare the performance of the proposed estimator and existing approaches in various synthetic problems, as well as a real-world recommendation dataset. Our experimental results confirm that clustering contexts improves estimation accuracy, especially in deficient information settings.

Uncertainty quantification in neural networks through methods such as Dropout, Bayesian neural networks and Laplace approximations is either prone to underfitting or computationally demanding, rendering these approaches impractical for large-scale datasets. In this work, we address these shortcomings by shifting the focus from uncertainty in the weight space to uncertainty at the activation level, via Gaussian processes. More specifically, we introduce the Gaussian Process Activation function (GAPA) to capture neuron-level uncertainties. Our approach operates in a post-hoc manner, preserving the original mean predictions of the pre-trained neural network and thereby avoiding the underfitting issues commonly encountered in previous methods. We propose two methods. The first, GAPA-Free, employs empirical kernel learning from the training data for the hyperparameters and is highly efficient during training. The second, GAPA-Variational, learns the hyperparameters via gradient descent on the kernels, thus affording greater flexibility. Empirical results demonstrate that GAPA-Variational outperforms the Laplace approximation on most datasets in at least one of the uncertainty quantification metrics.

We introduce the use of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for the probabilistic forecasting of intermittent time series. The model is trained in a Bayesian framework that accounts for the uncertainty about the latent function and marginalizes it out when making predictions. We couple the latent GP variable with two types of forecast distributions: the negative binomial (NegBinGP) and the Tweedie distribution (TweedieGP). While the negative binomial has already been used in forecasting intermittent time series, this is the first time in which a fully parameterized Tweedie density is used for intermittent time series. We properly evaluate the Tweedie density, which is both zero-inflated and heavy tailed, avoiding simplifying assumptions made in existing models. We test our models on thousands of intermittent count time series. Results show that our models provide consistently better probabilistic forecasts than the competitors. In particular, TweedieGP obtains the best estimates of the highest quantiles, thus showing that it is more flexible than NegBinGP.

Risk-sensitive planning aims to identify policies maximizing some tail-focused metrics in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Such an optimization task can be very costly for the most widely used and interpretable metrics such as threshold probabilities or (Conditional) Values at Risk. Indeed, previous work showed that only Entropic Risk Measures (EntRM) can be efficiently optimized through dynamic programming, leaving a hard-to-interpret parameter to choose. We show that the computation of the full set of optimal policies for EntRM across parameter values leads to tight approximations for the metrics of interest. We prove that this optimality front can be computed effectively thanks to a novel structural analysis and smoothness properties of entropic risks. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach achieves strong performance in a variety of decision-making scenarios.

Searching for objects in cluttered environments requires selecting efficient viewpoints and manipulation actions to remove occlusions and reduce uncertainty in object locations, shapes, and categories. In this work, we address the problem of manipulation-enhanced semantic mapping, where a robot has to efficiently identify all objects in a cluttered shelf. Although Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes~(POMDPs) are standard for decision-making under uncertainty, representing unstructured interactive worlds remains challenging in this formalism. To tackle this, we define a POMDP whose belief is summarized by a metric-semantic grid map and propose a novel framework that uses neural networks to perform map-space belief updates to reason efficiently and simultaneously about object geometries, locations, categories, occlusions, and manipulation physics. Further, to enable accurate information gain analysis, the learned belief updates should maintain calibrated estimates of uncertainty. Therefore, we propose Calibrated Neural-Accelerated Belief Updates (CNABUs) to learn a belief propagation model that generalizes to novel scenarios and provides confidence-calibrated predictions for unknown areas. Our experiments show that our novel POMDP planner improves map completeness and accuracy over existing methods in challenging simulations and successfully transfers to real-world cluttered shelves in zero-shot fashion.

Reinforcement learning (RL) post-training is crucial for LLM alignment and reasoning, but existing policy-based methods, such as PPO and DPO, can fall short of fixing shortcuts inherited from pre-training. In this work, we introduce $Q\sharp$, a value-based algorithm for KL-regularized RL that guides the reference policy using the optimal regularized $Q$ function. We propose to learn the optimal $Q$ function using distributional RL on an aggregated online dataset. Unlike prior value-based baselines that guide the model using unregularized $Q$-values, our method is theoretically principled and provably learns the optimal policy for the KL-regularized RL problem. Empirically, $Q\sharp$ outperforms prior baselines in math reasoning benchmarks while maintaining a smaller KL divergence to the reference policy. Theoretically, we establish a reduction from KL-regularized RL to no-regret online learning, providing the first bounds for deterministic MDPs under only realizability. Thanks to distributional RL, our bounds are also variance-dependent and converge faster when the reference policy has small variance. In sum, our results highlight $Q\sharp$ as an effective approach for post-training LLMs, offering both improved performance and theoretical guarantees. The code can be found at https://github.com/jinpz/q_sharp.

The module also clusters features based on geometry and semantics in the map. The hierarchical mapper [B] runs bottom-up, ingesting the RGB and depth images and the odometric path from the robot to build a map. The top level of the map contains the submaps, the middle level the regions, and the bottom level the objects. The local map compsises the loaded submaps. The other submaps are unloaded to save memory (shown here in gray). The planning module [C] consists of a discrete planner that operates on the sparse map and generates a reference path, while the dense Gaussians in the local map are used to find the trajectory to be executed on the robot. Abstract --We address the challenge of task-oriented navigation in unstructured and unknown environments, where robots must incrementally build and reason on rich, metric-semantic maps in real time. Since tasks may require clarification or re-specification, it is necessary for the information in the map to be rich enough to enable generalization across a wide range of tasks. T o effectively execute tasks specified in natural language, we propose a hierarchical representation built on language-embedded Gaussian splatting that enables both sparse semantic planning that lends itself to online operation and dense geometric representation for collision-free navigation. We validate the effectiveness of our method through real-world robot experiments conducted in both cluttered indoor and kilometer-scale outdoor environments, with a competitive ratio of about 60% against privileged baselines. Experiment videos and more details can be found on our project page: https://atlasnav.github.io This, in turn, requires robots to autonomously perceive their surroundings, gather relevant information, and make safe and efficient decisions - capabilities crucial for a variety of open-world tasking approaches over kilometer-scale environments with sparse semantics . To enable these capabilities on-board robots with privacy & compute constraints, we develop a framework to efficiently store and plan on hierarchical metric-semantic maps with visual and inertial sensors only. An overview of our method is shown in Figure 1. A cornerstone of autonomous navigation is the creation of actionable maps that effectively represent the environment and support diverse navigation and task-specific operations. These properties collectively ensure that the proposed map is not only manageable but also capable of supporting large-scale autonomous navigation to complete tasks provided in natural language. To achieve these goals, we propose an agglomerative data structure that is consistent across both geometric and semantic scales built upon 3D Gaussian Splatting [5] (3DGS).

In this paper we describe a novel framework for diffusion-based generative modeling on constrained spaces. In particular, we introduce manual bridges, a framework that expands the kinds of constraints that can be practically used to form so-called diffusion bridges. We develop a mechanism for combining multiple such constraints so that the resulting multiply-constrained model remains a manual bridge that respects all constraints. We also develop a mechanism for training a diffusion model that respects such multiple constraints while also adapting it to match a data distribution. We develop and extend theory demonstrating the mathematical validity of our mechanisms. Additionally, we demonstrate our mechanism in constrained generative modeling tasks, highlighting a particular high-value application in modeling trajectory initializations for path planning and control in autonomous vehicles.

We evaluate methods for causal representation learning (CRL) on a simple, real-world system where these methods are expected to work. The system consists of a controlled optical experiment specifically built for this purpose, which satisfies the core assumptions of CRL and where the underlying causal factors (the inputs to the experiment) are known, providing a ground truth. We select methods representative of different approaches to CRL and find that they all fail to recover the underlying causal factors. To understand the failure modes of the evaluated algorithms, we perform an ablation on the data by substituting the real data-generating process with a simpler synthetic equivalent. The results reveal a reproducibility problem, as most methods already fail on this synthetic ablation despite its simple data-generating process. Additionally, we observe that common assumptions on the mixing function are crucial for the performance of some of the methods but do not hold in the real data. Our efforts highlight the contrast between the theoretical promise of the state of the art and the challenges in its application. We hope the benchmark serves as a simple, real-world sanity check to further develop and validate methodology, bridging the gap towards CRL methods that work in practice. We make all code and datasets publicly available at github.com/simonbing/CRLSanityCheck

With the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), navigating for EV drivers to select a cost-effective charging station has become an important yet challenging issue due to dynamic traffic conditions, fluctuating electricity prices, and potential competition from other EVs. The state-of-the-art deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms for solving this task still require global information about all EVs at the execution stage, which not only increases communication costs but also raises privacy issues among EV drivers. To overcome these drawbacks, we introduce a novel generative model-enhanced multi-agent DRL algorithm that utilizes only the EV's local information while achieving performance comparable to these state-of-the-art algorithms. Specifically, the policy network is implemented on the EV side, and a Conditional Variational Autoencoder-Long Short Term Memory (CVAE-LSTM)-based recommendation model is developed to provide recommendation information. Furthermore, a novel future charging competition encoder is designed to effectively compress global information, enhancing training performance. The multi-gradient descent algorithm (MGDA) is also utilized to adaptively balance the weight between the two parts of the training objective, resulting in a more stable training process. Simulations are conducted based on a practical area in Xi\'an, China. Experimental results show that our proposed algorithm, which relies on local information, outperforms existing local information-based methods and achieves less than 8\% performance loss compared to global information-based methods.