Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) offer promising solutions for complex, dynamic environments where decision-making entities must interact and adapt. In cybersecurity, particularly in Automated Cyber Defence(ACD), these techniques can address challenges posed by high-dimensional observations and actions. This document provides guidelines for: Cybersecurity professionals exploring RL and MARL for real-world applications. RL and MARL researchers aiming to tackle the nuanced demands of cybersecurity scenarios. By outlining when RL and MARL are appropriate, addressing cyber-specific challenges, and offering practical considerations for implementation, these guidelines aim to bridge the gap between theoretical research and practical deployment in adversarial settings. We expect that this document will offer support to researchers who are keen to explore topics at the intersection of RL, MARL and ACD by highlighting open research questions and topics that demand further investigation.

The complexity of online decision-making under uncertainty stems from the requirement of finding a balance between exploiting known strategies and exploring new possibilities. Naturally, the uncertainty type plays a crucial role in developing decision-making strategies that manage complexity effectively. In this paper, we focus on a specific form of uncertainty known as epistemic ambivalence (EA), which emerges from conflicting pieces of evidence or contradictory experiences. It creates a delicate interplay between uncertainty and confidence, distinguishing it from epistemic uncertainty that typically diminishes with new information. Indeed, ambivalence can persist even after additional knowledge is acquired. To address this phenomenon, we propose a novel framework, called the epistemically ambivalent Markov decision process (EA-MDP), aiming to understand and control EA in decision-making processes. This framework incorporates the concept of a quantum state from the quantum mechanics formalism, and its core is to assess the probability and reward of every possible outcome. We calculate the reward function using quantum measurement techniques and prove the existence of an optimal policy and an optimal value function in the EA-MDP framework. We also propose the EA-epsilon-greedy Q-learning algorithm. To evaluate the impact of EA on decision-making and the expedience of our framework, we study two distinct experimental setups, namely the two-state problem and the lattice problem. Our results show that using our methods, the agent converges to the optimal policy in the presence of EA.

We extend a recently introduced geometric interpretation of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) that provides a new perspective on MDP algorithms and their dynamics. Based on this view, we develop a novel analytical framework that simplifies the proofs of existing results and enables us to derive new ones. Specifically, we analyze the behavior of two classical MDP-solving algorithms: Policy Iteration (PI) and Value Iteration (VI). For each algorithm, we first describe its dynamics in geometric terms and then present an analysis along with several convergence results. We begin by introducing an MDP transformation that modifies the discount factor γ and demonstrate how this transformation improves the convergence properties of both algorithms, provided that it can be applied such that the resulting system remains a regular MDP. Second, we present a new analysis of PI in a 2-state MDP case, showing that the number of iterations required for convergence is bounded by the number of state-action pairs. Finally, we reveal an additional convergence factor in the VI algorithm for cases with a connected optimal policy, which is attributed to an extra rotation component in the VI dynamics.

Filtering-based probabilistic numerical solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), also known as ODE filters, have been established as efficient methods for quantifying numerical uncertainty in the solution of ODEs. In practical applications, however, the underlying dynamical system often contains uncertain parameters, requiring the propagation of this model uncertainty to the ODE solution. In this paper, we demonstrate that ODE filters, despite their probabilistic nature, do not automatically solve this uncertainty propagation problem. To address this limitation, we present a novel approach that combines ODE filters with numerical quadrature to properly marginalize over uncertain parameters, while accounting for both parameter uncertainty and numerical solver uncertainty. Experiments across multiple dynamical systems demonstrate that the resulting uncertainty estimates closely match reference solutions. Notably, we show how the numerical uncertainty from the ODE solver can help prevent overconfidence in the propagated uncertainty estimates, especially when using larger step sizes. Our results illustrate that probabilistic numerical methods can effectively quantify both numerical and parametric uncertainty in dynamical systems.

We introduce Dirichlet Process Posterior Sampling (DPPS), a Bayesian non-parametric algorithm for multi-arm bandits based on Dirichlet Process (DP) priors. Like Thompson-sampling, DPPS is a probability-matching algorithm, i.e., it plays an arm based on its posterior-probability of being optimal. Instead of assuming a parametric class for the reward generating distribution of each arm, and then putting a prior on the parameters, in DPPS the reward generating distribution is directly modeled using DP priors. DPPS provides a principled approach to incorporate prior belief about the bandit environment, and in the noninformative limit of the DP posteriors (i.e. Bayesian Bootstrap), we recover Non Parametric Thompson Sampling (NPTS), a popular non-parametric bandit algorithm, as a special case of DPPS. We employ stick-breaking representation of the DP priors, and show excellent empirical performance of DPPS in challenging synthetic and real world bandit environments. Finally, using an information-theoretic analysis, we show non-asymptotic optimality of DPPS in the Bayesian regret setup.

Research in adversarial machine learning (AML) has shown that statistical models are vulnerable to maliciously altered data. However, despite advances in Bayesian machine learning models, most AML research remains concentrated on classical techniques. Therefore, we focus on extending the white-box model poisoning paradigm to attack generic Bayesian inference, highlighting its vulnerability in adversarial contexts. A suite of attacks are developed that allow an attacker to steer the Bayesian posterior toward a target distribution through the strategic deletion and replication of true observations, even when only sampling access to the posterior is available. Analytic properties of these algorithms are proven and their performance is empirically examined in both synthetic and real-world scenarios. With relatively little effort, the attacker is able to substantively alter the Bayesian's beliefs and, by accepting more risk, they can mold these beliefs to their will. By carefully constructing the adversarial posterior, surgical poisoning is achieved such that only targeted inferences are corrupted and others are minimally disturbed.

This study leverages spatial machine learning (SML) to enhance the accuracy of Proxy Means Testing (PMT) for poverty targeting in Indonesia. Conventional PMT methodologies are prone to exclusion and inclusion errors due to their inability to account for spatial dependencies and regional heterogeneity. By integrating spatial contiguity matrices, SML models mitigate these limitations, facilitating a more precise identification and comparison of geographical poverty clusters. Utilizing household survey data from the Social Welfare Integrated Data Survey (DTKS) for the periods 2016 to 2020 and 2016 to 2021, this study examines spatial patterns in income distribution and delineates poverty clusters at both provincial and district levels. Empirical findings indicate that the proposed SML approach reduces exclusion errors from 28% to 20% compared to standard machine learning models, underscoring the critical role of spatial analysis in refining machine learning-based poverty targeting. These results highlight the potential of SML to inform the design of more equitable and effective social protection policies, particularly in geographically diverse contexts. Future research can explore the applicability of spatiotemporal models and assess the generalizability of SML approaches across varying socio-economic settings.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful models for human-in-the-loop experiments due to their flexibility and well-calibrated uncertainty. However, GPs modeling human responses typically ignore auxiliary information, including a priori domain expertise and non-task performance information like user confidence ratings. We propose mixed likelihood variational GPs to leverage auxiliary information, which combine multiple likelihoods in a single evidence lower bound to model multiple types of data. We demonstrate the benefits of mixing likelihoods in three real-world experiments with human participants. First, we use mixed likelihood training to impose prior knowledge constraints in GP classifiers, which accelerates active learning in a visual perception task where users are asked to identify geometric errors resulting from camera position errors in virtual reality. Second, we show that leveraging Likert scale confidence ratings by mixed likelihood training improves model fitting for haptic perception of surface roughness. Lastly, we show that Likert scale confidence ratings improve human preference learning in robot gait optimization. The modeling performance improvements found using our framework across this diverse set of applications illustrates the benefits of incorporating auxiliary information into active learning and preference learning by using mixed likelihoods to jointly model multiple inputs.

Efficient exploration is essential for intelligent systems interacting with their environment, but existing language models often fall short in scenarios that require strategic information gathering. In this paper, we present PAPRIKA, a fine-tuning approach that enables language models to develop general decision-making capabilities that are not confined to particular environments. By training on synthetic interaction data from different tasks that require diverse strategies, PAPRIKA teaches models to explore and adapt their behavior on a new task based on environment feedback in-context without more gradient updates. Experimental results show that models fine-tuned with PAPRIKA can effectively transfer their learned decision-making capabilities to entirely unseen tasks without additional training. Unlike traditional training, our approach's primary bottleneck lies in sampling useful interaction data instead of model updates. To improve sample efficiency, we propose a curriculum learning strategy that prioritizes sampling trajectories from tasks with high learning potential. These results suggest a promising path towards AI systems that can autonomously solve novel sequential decision-making problems that require interactions with the external world.

Bayesian filtering for high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems is a fundamental yet challenging problem in many fields of science and engineering. Existing methods face significant obstacles: Gaussian-based filters struggle with non-Gaussian distributions, while sequential Monte Carlo methods are computationally intensive and prone to particle degeneracy in high dimensions. Although generative models in machine learning have made significant progress in modeling high-dimensional non-Gaussian distributions, their inefficiency in online updating limits their applicability to filtering problems. To address these challenges, we propose a flow-based Bayesian filter (FBF) that integrates normalizing flows to construct a novel latent linear state-space model with Gaussian filtering distributions. This framework facilitates efficient density estimation and sampling using invertible transformations provided by normalizing flows, and it enables the construction of filters in a data-driven manner, without requiring prior knowledge of system dynamics or observation models. Numerical experiments demonstrate the superior accuracy and efficiency of FBF.