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 Learning Graphical Models


Is Your Imitation Learning Policy Better than Mine? Policy Comparison with Near-Optimal Stopping

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Imitation learning has enabled robots to perform complex, long-horizon tasks in challenging dexterous manipulation settings. As new methods are developed, they must be rigorously evaluated and compared against corresponding baselines through repeated evaluation trials. However, policy comparison is fundamentally constrained by a small feasible sample size (e.g., 10 or 50) due to significant human effort and limited inference throughput of policies. This paper proposes a novel statistical framework for rigorously comparing two policies in the small sample size regime. Prior work in statistical policy comparison relies on batch testing, which requires a fixed, pre-determined number of trials and lacks flexibility in adapting the sample size to the observed evaluation data. Furthermore, extending the test with additional trials risks inducing inadvertent p-hacking, undermining statistical assurances. In contrast, our proposed statistical test is sequential, allowing researchers to decide whether or not to run more trials based on intermediate results. This adaptively tailors the number of trials to the difficulty of the underlying comparison, saving significant time and effort without sacrificing probabilistic correctness. Extensive numerical simulation and real-world robot manipulation experiments show that our test achieves near-optimal stopping, letting researchers stop evaluation and make a decision in a near-minimal number of trials. Specifically, it reduces the number of evaluation trials by up to 40% as compared to state-of-the-art baselines, while preserving the probabilistic correctness and statistical power of the comparison. Moreover, our method is strongest in the most challenging comparison instances (requiring the most evaluation trials); in a multi-task comparison scenario, we save the evaluator more than 200 simulation rollouts.


Multilevel Generative Samplers for Investigating Critical Phenomena

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Investigating critical phenomena or phase transitions is of high interest in physics and chemistry, for which Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, a crucial tool for numerically analyzing macroscopic properties of given systems, are often hindered by an emerging divergence of correlation length -- known as scale invariance at criticality (SIC) in the renormalization group theory. SIC causes the system to behave the same at any length scale, from which many existing sampling methods suffer: long-range correlations cause critical slowing down in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and require intractably large receptive fields for generative samplers. In this paper, we propose a Renormalization-informed Generative Critical Sampler (RiGCS) -- a novel sampler specialized for near-critical systems, where SIC is leveraged as an advantage rather than a nuisance. Specifically, RiGCS builds on MultiLevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) with Heat Bath (HB) algorithms, which perform ancestral sampling from low-resolution to high-resolution lattice configurations with site-wise-independent conditional HB sampling. Although MLMC-HB is highly efficient under exact SIC, it suffers from a low acceptance rate under slight SIC violation. Notably, SIC violation always occurs in finite-size systems, and may induce long-range and higher-order interactions in the renormalized distributions, which are not considered by independent HB samplers. RiGCS enhances MLMC-HB by replacing a part of the conditional HB sampler with generative models that capture those residual interactions and improve the sampling efficiency. Our experiments show that the effective sample size of RiGCS is a few orders of magnitude higher than state-of-the-art generative model baselines in sampling configurations for 128x128 two-dimensional Ising systems.


How Well Does Your Tabular Generator Learn the Structure of Tabular Data?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Heterogeneous tabular data poses unique challenges in generative modelling due to its fundamentally different underlying data structure compared to homogeneous modalities, such as images and text. Although previous research has sought to adapt the successes of generative modelling in homogeneous modalities to the tabular domain, defining an effective generator for tabular data remains an open problem. One major reason is that the evaluation criteria inherited from other modalities often fail to adequately assess whether tabular generative models effectively capture or utilise the unique structural information encoded in tabular data. In this paper, we carefully examine the limitations of the prevailing evaluation framework and introduce $\textbf{TabStruct}$, a novel evaluation benchmark that positions structural fidelity as a core evaluation dimension. Specifically, TabStruct evaluates the alignment of causal structures in real and synthetic data, providing a direct measure of how effectively tabular generative models learn the structure of tabular data. Through extensive experiments using generators from eight categories on seven datasets with expert-validated causal graphical structures, we show that structural fidelity offers a task-independent, domain-agnostic evaluation dimension. Our findings highlight the importance of tabular data structure and offer practical guidance for developing more effective and robust tabular generative models. Code is available at https://github.com/SilenceX12138/TabStruct.


Efficient dynamic modal load reconstruction using physics-informed Gaussian processes based on frequency-sparse Fourier basis functions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge of the force time history of a structure is essential to assess its behaviour, ensure safety and maintain reliability. However, direct measurement of external forces is often challenging due to sensor limitations, unknown force characteristics, or inaccessible load points. This paper presents an efficient dynamic load reconstruction method using physics-informed Gaussian processes (GP) based on frequency-sparse Fourier basis functions. The GP's covariance matrices are built using the description of the system dynamics, and the model is trained using structural response measurements. This provides support and interpretability to the machine learning model, in contrast to purely data-driven methods. In addition, the model filters out irrelevant components in the Fourier basis function by leveraging the sparsity of structural responses in the frequency domain, thereby reducing computational complexity during optimization. The trained model for structural responses is then integrated with the differential equation for a harmonic oscillator, creating a probabilistic dynamic load model that predicts load patterns without requiring force data during training. The model's effectiveness is validated through two case studies: a numerical model of a wind-excited 76-story building and an experiment using a physical scale model of the Lilleb{\ae}lt Bridge in Denmark, excited by a servo motor. For both cases, validation of the reconstructed forces is provided using comparison metrics for several signal properties. The developed model holds potential for applications in structural health monitoring, damage prognosis, and load model validation.


Addressing pitfalls in implicit unobserved confounding synthesis using explicit block hierarchical ancestral sampling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Unbiased data synthesis is crucial for evaluating causal discovery algorithms in the presence of unobserved confounding, given the scarcity of real-world datasets. A common approach, implicit parameterization, encodes unobserved confounding by modifying the off-diagonal entries of the idiosyncratic covariance matrix while preserving positive definiteness. Within this approach, state-of-the-art protocols have two distinct issues that hinder unbiased sampling from the complete space of causal models: first, the use of diagonally dominant constructions, which restrict the spectrum of partial correlation matrices; and second, the restriction of possible graphical structures when sampling bidirected edges, unnecessarily ruling out valid causal models. To address these limitations, we propose an improved explicit modeling approach for unobserved confounding, leveraging block-hierarchical ancestral generation of ground truth causal graphs. Algorithms for converting the ground truth DAG into ancestral graph is provided so that the output of causal discovery algorithms could be compared with. We prove that our approach fully covers the space of causal models, including those generated by the implicit parameterization, thus enabling more robust evaluation of methods for causal discovery and inference.


Exploration of Hepatitis B Virus Infection Dynamics through Virology-Informed Neural Network: A Novel Artificial Intelligence Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we introduce Virology-Informed Neural Networks (VINNs), a powerful tool for capturing the intricate dynamics of viral infection when data of some compartments of the model are not available. VINNs, an extension of the widely known Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), offer an alternative approach to traditional numerical methods for solving system of differential equations. We apply this VINN technique on a recently proposed hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection dynamics model to predict the transmission of the infection within the liver more accurately. This model consists of four compartments, namely uninfected and infected hepatocytes, rcDNA-containing capsids, and free viruses, along with the consideration of capsid recycling. Leveraging the power of VINNs, we study the impacts of variations in parameter range, experimental noise, data variability, network architecture, and learning rate in this work. In order to demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of VINNs, we employ this approach on the data collected from nine HBV-infceted chimpanzees, and it is observed that VINNs can effectively estimate the model parameters. VINNs reliably capture the dynamics of infection spread and accurately predict their future progression using real-world data. Furthermore, VINNs efficiently identify the most influential parameters in HBV dynamics based solely on experimental data from the capsid component. It is also expected that this framework can be extended beyond viral dynamics, providing a powerful tool for uncovering hidden patterns and complex interactions across various scientific and engineering domains.


MoFlow: One-Step Flow Matching for Human Trajectory Forecasting via Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation based Distillation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we address the problem of human trajectory forecasting, which aims to predict the inherently multi-modal future movements of humans based on their past trajectories and other contextual cues. We propose a novel motion prediction conditional flow matching model, termed MoFlow, to predict K-shot future trajectories for all agents in a given scene. We design a novel flow matching loss function that not only ensures at least one of the $K$ sets of future trajectories is accurate but also encourages all $K$ sets of future trajectories to be diverse and plausible. Furthermore, by leveraging the implicit maximum likelihood estimation (IMLE), we propose a novel distillation method for flow models that only requires samples from the teacher model. Extensive experiments on the real-world datasets, including SportVU NBA games, ETH-UCY, and SDD, demonstrate that both our teacher flow model and the IMLE-distilled student model achieve state-of-the-art performance. These models can generate diverse trajectories that are physically and socially plausible. Moreover, our one-step student model is $\textbf{100}$ times faster than the teacher flow model during sampling. The code, model, and data are available at our project page: https://moflow-imle.github.io


AgentDAM: Privacy Leakage Evaluation for Autonomous Web Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

LLM-powered AI agents are an emerging frontier with tremendous potential to increase human productivity. However, empowering AI agents to take action on their user's behalf in day-to-day tasks involves giving them access to potentially sensitive and private information, which leads to a possible risk of inadvertent privacy leakage when the agent malfunctions. In this work, we propose one way to address that potential risk, by training AI agents to better satisfy the privacy principle of data minimization. For the purposes of this benchmark, by "data minimization" we mean instances where private information is shared only when it is necessary to fulfill a specific task-relevant purpose. We develop a benchmark called AgentDAM to evaluate how well existing and future AI agents can limit processing of potentially private information that we designate "necessary" to fulfill the task. Our benchmark simulates realistic web interaction scenarios and is adaptable to all existing web navigation agents. We use AgentDAM to evaluate how well AI agents built on top of GPT-4, Llama-3 and Claude can limit processing of potentially private information when unnecessary, and show that these agents are often prone to inadvertent use of unnecessary sensitive information. We finally propose a prompting-based approach that reduces this.


Real-Time Risky Fault-Chain Search using Time-Varying Graph RNNs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces a data-driven graphical framework for the real-time search of risky cascading fault chains (FCs) in power-grids, crucial for enhancing grid resiliency in the face of climate change. As extreme weather events driven by climate change increase, identifying risky FCs becomes crucial for mitigating cascading failures and ensuring grid stability. However, the complexity of the spatio-temporal dependencies among grid components and the exponential growth of the search space with system size pose significant challenges to modeling and risky FC search. To tackle this, we model the search process as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), which is subsequently solved via a time-varying graph recurrent neural network (GRNN). This approach captures the spatial and temporal structure induced by the system's topology and dynamics, while efficiently summarizing the system's history in the GRNN's latent space, enabling scalable and effective identification of risky FCs.


Multi-Agent LLM Actor-Critic Framework for Social Robot Navigation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in robotics and large language models (LLMs) have sparked growing interest in human-robot collaboration and embodied intelligence. To enable the broader deployment of robots in human-populated environments, socially-aware robot navigation (SAN) has become a key research area. While deep reinforcement learning approaches that integrate human-robot interaction (HRI) with path planning have demonstrated strong benchmark performance, they often struggle to adapt to new scenarios and environments. LLMs offer a promising avenue for zero-shot navigation through commonsense inference. However, most existing LLM-based frameworks rely on centralized decision-making, lack robust verification mechanisms, and face inconsistencies in translating macro-actions into precise low-level control signals. To address these challenges, we propose SAMALM, a decentralized multi-agent LLM actor-critic framework for multi-robot social navigation. In this framework, a set of parallel LLM actors, each reflecting distinct robot personalities or configurations, directly generate control signals. These actions undergo a two-tier verification process via a global critic that evaluates group-level behaviors and individual critics that assess each robot's context. An entropy-based score fusion mechanism further enhances self-verification and re-query, improving both robustness and coordination. Experimental results confirm that SAMALM effectively balances local autonomy with global oversight, yielding socially compliant behaviors and strong adaptability across diverse multi-robot scenarios. More details and videos about this work are available at: https://sites.google.com/view/SAMALM.