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 Learning Graphical Models


Efficient dynamic modal load reconstruction using physics-informed Gaussian processes based on frequency-sparse Fourier basis functions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge of the force time history of a structure is essential to assess its behaviour, ensure safety and maintain reliability. However, direct measurement of external forces is often challenging due to sensor limitations, unknown force characteristics, or inaccessible load points. This paper presents an efficient dynamic load reconstruction method using physics-informed Gaussian processes (GP) based on frequency-sparse Fourier basis functions. The GP's covariance matrices are built using the description of the system dynamics, and the model is trained using structural response measurements. This provides support and interpretability to the machine learning model, in contrast to purely data-driven methods. In addition, the model filters out irrelevant components in the Fourier basis function by leveraging the sparsity of structural responses in the frequency domain, thereby reducing computational complexity during optimization. The trained model for structural responses is then integrated with the differential equation for a harmonic oscillator, creating a probabilistic dynamic load model that predicts load patterns without requiring force data during training. The model's effectiveness is validated through two case studies: a numerical model of a wind-excited 76-story building and an experiment using a physical scale model of the Lilleb{\ae}lt Bridge in Denmark, excited by a servo motor. For both cases, validation of the reconstructed forces is provided using comparison metrics for several signal properties. The developed model holds potential for applications in structural health monitoring, damage prognosis, and load model validation.


Addressing pitfalls in implicit unobserved confounding synthesis using explicit block hierarchical ancestral sampling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Unbiased data synthesis is crucial for evaluating causal discovery algorithms in the presence of unobserved confounding, given the scarcity of real-world datasets. A common approach, implicit parameterization, encodes unobserved confounding by modifying the off-diagonal entries of the idiosyncratic covariance matrix while preserving positive definiteness. Within this approach, state-of-the-art protocols have two distinct issues that hinder unbiased sampling from the complete space of causal models: first, the use of diagonally dominant constructions, which restrict the spectrum of partial correlation matrices; and second, the restriction of possible graphical structures when sampling bidirected edges, unnecessarily ruling out valid causal models. To address these limitations, we propose an improved explicit modeling approach for unobserved confounding, leveraging block-hierarchical ancestral generation of ground truth causal graphs. Algorithms for converting the ground truth DAG into ancestral graph is provided so that the output of causal discovery algorithms could be compared with. We prove that our approach fully covers the space of causal models, including those generated by the implicit parameterization, thus enabling more robust evaluation of methods for causal discovery and inference.


Exploration of Hepatitis B Virus Infection Dynamics through Virology-Informed Neural Network: A Novel Artificial Intelligence Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we introduce Virology-Informed Neural Networks (VINNs), a powerful tool for capturing the intricate dynamics of viral infection when data of some compartments of the model are not available. VINNs, an extension of the widely known Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), offer an alternative approach to traditional numerical methods for solving system of differential equations. We apply this VINN technique on a recently proposed hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection dynamics model to predict the transmission of the infection within the liver more accurately. This model consists of four compartments, namely uninfected and infected hepatocytes, rcDNA-containing capsids, and free viruses, along with the consideration of capsid recycling. Leveraging the power of VINNs, we study the impacts of variations in parameter range, experimental noise, data variability, network architecture, and learning rate in this work. In order to demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of VINNs, we employ this approach on the data collected from nine HBV-infceted chimpanzees, and it is observed that VINNs can effectively estimate the model parameters. VINNs reliably capture the dynamics of infection spread and accurately predict their future progression using real-world data. Furthermore, VINNs efficiently identify the most influential parameters in HBV dynamics based solely on experimental data from the capsid component. It is also expected that this framework can be extended beyond viral dynamics, providing a powerful tool for uncovering hidden patterns and complex interactions across various scientific and engineering domains.


MoFlow: One-Step Flow Matching for Human Trajectory Forecasting via Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation based Distillation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we address the problem of human trajectory forecasting, which aims to predict the inherently multi-modal future movements of humans based on their past trajectories and other contextual cues. We propose a novel motion prediction conditional flow matching model, termed MoFlow, to predict K-shot future trajectories for all agents in a given scene. We design a novel flow matching loss function that not only ensures at least one of the $K$ sets of future trajectories is accurate but also encourages all $K$ sets of future trajectories to be diverse and plausible. Furthermore, by leveraging the implicit maximum likelihood estimation (IMLE), we propose a novel distillation method for flow models that only requires samples from the teacher model. Extensive experiments on the real-world datasets, including SportVU NBA games, ETH-UCY, and SDD, demonstrate that both our teacher flow model and the IMLE-distilled student model achieve state-of-the-art performance. These models can generate diverse trajectories that are physically and socially plausible. Moreover, our one-step student model is $\textbf{100}$ times faster than the teacher flow model during sampling. The code, model, and data are available at our project page: https://moflow-imle.github.io


AgentDAM: Privacy Leakage Evaluation for Autonomous Web Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

LLM-powered AI agents are an emerging frontier with tremendous potential to increase human productivity. However, empowering AI agents to take action on their user's behalf in day-to-day tasks involves giving them access to potentially sensitive and private information, which leads to a possible risk of inadvertent privacy leakage when the agent malfunctions. In this work, we propose one way to address that potential risk, by training AI agents to better satisfy the privacy principle of data minimization. For the purposes of this benchmark, by "data minimization" we mean instances where private information is shared only when it is necessary to fulfill a specific task-relevant purpose. We develop a benchmark called AgentDAM to evaluate how well existing and future AI agents can limit processing of potentially private information that we designate "necessary" to fulfill the task. Our benchmark simulates realistic web interaction scenarios and is adaptable to all existing web navigation agents. We use AgentDAM to evaluate how well AI agents built on top of GPT-4, Llama-3 and Claude can limit processing of potentially private information when unnecessary, and show that these agents are often prone to inadvertent use of unnecessary sensitive information. We finally propose a prompting-based approach that reduces this.


Real-Time Risky Fault-Chain Search using Time-Varying Graph RNNs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces a data-driven graphical framework for the real-time search of risky cascading fault chains (FCs) in power-grids, crucial for enhancing grid resiliency in the face of climate change. As extreme weather events driven by climate change increase, identifying risky FCs becomes crucial for mitigating cascading failures and ensuring grid stability. However, the complexity of the spatio-temporal dependencies among grid components and the exponential growth of the search space with system size pose significant challenges to modeling and risky FC search. To tackle this, we model the search process as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), which is subsequently solved via a time-varying graph recurrent neural network (GRNN). This approach captures the spatial and temporal structure induced by the system's topology and dynamics, while efficiently summarizing the system's history in the GRNN's latent space, enabling scalable and effective identification of risky FCs.


Multi-Agent LLM Actor-Critic Framework for Social Robot Navigation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in robotics and large language models (LLMs) have sparked growing interest in human-robot collaboration and embodied intelligence. To enable the broader deployment of robots in human-populated environments, socially-aware robot navigation (SAN) has become a key research area. While deep reinforcement learning approaches that integrate human-robot interaction (HRI) with path planning have demonstrated strong benchmark performance, they often struggle to adapt to new scenarios and environments. LLMs offer a promising avenue for zero-shot navigation through commonsense inference. However, most existing LLM-based frameworks rely on centralized decision-making, lack robust verification mechanisms, and face inconsistencies in translating macro-actions into precise low-level control signals. To address these challenges, we propose SAMALM, a decentralized multi-agent LLM actor-critic framework for multi-robot social navigation. In this framework, a set of parallel LLM actors, each reflecting distinct robot personalities or configurations, directly generate control signals. These actions undergo a two-tier verification process via a global critic that evaluates group-level behaviors and individual critics that assess each robot's context. An entropy-based score fusion mechanism further enhances self-verification and re-query, improving both robustness and coordination. Experimental results confirm that SAMALM effectively balances local autonomy with global oversight, yielding socially compliant behaviors and strong adaptability across diverse multi-robot scenarios. More details and videos about this work are available at: https://sites.google.com/view/SAMALM.


Towards Causal Model-Based Policy Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Real-world decision-making problems are often marked by complex, uncertain dynamics that can shift or break under changing conditions. Traditional Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) approaches learn predictive models of environment dynamics from queried trajectories and then use these models to simulate rollouts for policy optimization. However, such methods do not account for the underlying causal mechanisms that govern the environment, and thus inadvertently capture spurious correlations, making them sensitive to distributional shifts and limiting their ability to generalize. The same naturally holds for model-free approaches. In this work, we introduce Causal Model-Based Policy Optimization (C-MBPO), a novel framework that integrates causal learning into the MBRL pipeline to achieve more robust, explainable, and generalizable policy learning algorithms. Our approach centers on first inferring a Causal Markov Decision Process (C-MDP) by learning a local Structural Causal Model (SCM) of both the state and reward transition dynamics from trajectories gathered online. C-MDPs differ from classic MDPs in that we can decompose causal dependencies in the environment dynamics via specifying an associated Causal Bayesian Network. C-MDPs allow for targeted interventions and counterfactual reasoning, enabling the agent to distinguish between mere statistical correlations and causal relationships. The learned SCM is then used to simulate counterfactual on-policy transitions and rewards under hypothetical actions (or ``interventions"), thereby guiding policy optimization more effectively. The resulting policy learned by C-MBPO can be shown to be robust to a class of distributional shifts that affect spurious, non-causal relationships in the dynamics. We demonstrate this through some simple experiments involving near and far OOD dynamics drifts.


Probabilistic Reasoning with LLMs for k-anonymity Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Probabilistic reasoning is a key aspect of both human and artificial intelligence that allows for handling uncertainty and ambiguity in decision-making. In this paper, we introduce a novel numerical reasoning task under uncertainty, focusing on estimating the k-anonymity of user-generated documents containing privacy-sensitive information. We propose BRANCH, which uses LLMs to factorize a joint probability distribution to estimate the k-value-the size of the population matching the given information-by modeling individual pieces of textual information as random variables. The probability of each factor occurring within a population is estimated using standalone LLMs or retrieval-augmented generation systems, and these probabilities are combined into a final k-value. Our experiments show that this method successfully estimates the correct k-value 67% of the time, an 11% increase compared to GPT-4o chain-of-thought reasoning. Additionally, we leverage LLM uncertainty to develop prediction intervals for k-anonymity, which include the correct value in nearly 92% of cases.


A Deep Reinforcement Learning Approach to Automated Stock Trading, using xLSTM Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are effective for handling sequential data but have limitations such as gradient vanishing and difficulty in capturing long-term dependencies, which can impact their performance in dynamic and risky environments like stock trading. To address these limitations, this study explores the usage of the newly introduced Extended Long Short Term Memory (xLSTM) network in combination with a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach for automated stock trading. Our proposed method utilizes xLSTM networks in both actor and critic components, enabling effective handling of time series data and dynamic market environments. Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), with its ability to balance exploration and exploitation, is employed to optimize the trading strategy. Experiments were conducted using financial data from major tech companies over a comprehensive timeline, demonstrating that the xLSTM-based model outperforms LSTM-based methods in key trading evaluation metrics, including cumulative return, average profitability per trade, maximum earning rate, maximum pullback, and Sharpe ratio. These findings mark the potential of xLSTM for enhancing DRL-based stock trading systems.