Q-learning is a widely used reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm for optimizing wireless networks, but faces challenges with large state-spaces. Recently proposed multi-environment mixed Q-learning (MEMQ) algorithm addresses these challenges by employing multiple Q-learning algorithms across multiple synthetically generated, distinct but structurally related environments, so-called digital cousins. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-agent MEMQ (M-MEMQ) for cooperative decentralized wireless networks with multiple networked transmitters (TXs) and base stations (BSs). TXs do not have access to global information (joint state and actions). The new concept of coordinated and uncoordinated states is introduced. In uncoordinated states, TXs act independently to minimize their individual costs and update local Q-functions. In coordinated states, TXs use a Bayesian approach to estimate the joint state and update the joint Q-functions. The cost of information-sharing scales linearly with the number of TXs and is independent of the joint state-action space size. Several theoretical guarantees, including deterministic and probabilistic convergence, bounds on estimation error variance, and the probability of misdetecting the joint states, are given. Numerical simulations show that M-MEMQ outperforms several decentralized and centralized training with decentralized execution (CTDE) multi-agent RL algorithms by achieving 55% lower average policy error (APE), 35% faster convergence, 50% reduced runtime complexity, and 45% less sample complexity. Furthermore, M-MEMQ achieves comparable APE with significantly lower complexity than centralized methods. Simulations validate the theoretical analyses.

Regularized system identification has become a significant complement to more classical system identification. It has been numerically shown that kernel-based regularized estimators often perform better than the maximum likelihood estimator in terms of minimizing mean squared error (MSE). However, regularized estimators often require hyper-parameter estimation. This paper focuses on ridge regression and the regularized estimator by employing the empirical Bayes hyper-parameter estimator. We utilize the excess MSE to quantify the MSE difference between the empirical-Bayes-based regularized estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator for large sample sizes. We then exploit the excess MSE expressions to develop both a family of generalized Bayes estimators and a family of closed-form biased estimators. They have the same excess MSE as the empirical-Bayes-based regularized estimator but eliminate the need for hyper-parameter estimation. Moreover, we conduct numerical simulations to show that the performance of these new estimators is comparable to the empirical-Bayes-based regularized estimator, while computationally, they are more efficient.

This paper proposes a new class of predictive models for survival analysis called Generalized Bayesian Ensemble Survival Tree (GBEST). It is well known that survival analysis poses many different challenges, in particular when applied to small data or censorship mechanism. Our contribution is the proposal of an ensemble approach that uses Bayesian bootstrap and beta Stacy bootstrap methods to improve the outcome in survival application with a special focus on small datasets. More precisely, a novel approach to integrate Beta Stacy Bayesian bootstrap in bagging tree models for censored data is proposed in this paper. Empirical evidence achieved on simulated and real data underlines that our approach performs better in terms of predictive performances and stability of the results compared with classical survival models available in the literature. In terms of methodology our novel contribution considers the adaptation of recent Bayesian ensemble approaches to survival data, providing a new model called Generalized Bayesian Ensemble Survival Tree (GBEST). A further result in terms of computational novelty is the implementation in R of GBEST, available in a public GitHub repository.

Sequential design of real and computer experiments via Gaussian Process (GP) models has proven useful for parsimonious, goal-oriented data acquisition purposes. In this work, we focus on acquisition strategies for a GP model that needs to be accurate within a predefined range of the response of interest. Such an approach is useful in various fields including synthetic chemistry, where finding molecules with particular properties is essential for developing useful materials and effective medications. GP modeling and sequential design of experiments have been successfully applied to a plethora of domains, including molecule research. Our main contribution here is to use the threshold-weighted Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) as a basic building block for acquisition functions employed within sequential design. We study pointwise and integral criteria relying on two different weighting measures and benchmark them against competitors, demonstrating improved performance with respect to considered goals. The resulting acquisition strategies are applicable to a wide range of fields and pave the way to further developing sequential design relying on scoring rules.

Identifying model parameters from observed configurations poses a fundamental challenge in data science, especially with limited data. Recently, diffusion models have emerged as a novel paradigm in generative machine learning, capable of producing new samples that closely mimic observed data. These models learn the gradient of model probabilities, bypassing the need for cumbersome calculations of partition functions across all possible configurations. We explore whether diffusion models can enhance parameter inference by augmenting small datasets. Our findings demonstrate this potential through a synthetic task involving inverse Ising inference and a real-world application of reconstructing missing values in neural activity data. This study serves as a proof-of-concept for using diffusion models for data augmentation in physics-related problems, thereby opening new avenues in data science.

The problem of the priors is well known: it concerns the challenge of identifying norms that govern one's prior credences. I argue that a key to addressing this problem lies in considering what I call the problem of the posteriors -- the challenge of identifying norms that directly govern one's posterior credences, which then induce constraints on the priors via the diachronic requirement of conditionalization. This forward-looking approach can be summarized as: Think ahead, work backward. Although this idea can be traced to Freedman (1963), Carnap (1963), and Shimony (1970), it has received little attention in philosophy. In this paper, I initiate a systematic defense of forward-looking Bayesianism, addressing potential objections from more traditional views (both subjectivist and objectivist) and arguing for its advantages. In particular, I develop a specific approach to forward-looking Bayesianism -- one that treats the convergence of posterior credences to the truth as a fundamental rather than derived normative requirement. This approach, called convergentist Bayesianism, is argued to be crucial for a Bayesian foundation of Ockham's razor and related inference methods in statistics and machine learning.

Cognition swiftly breaks high-dimensional sensory streams into familiar parts and uncovers their relations. Why do structures emerge, and how do they enable learning, generalization, and prediction? What computational principles underlie this core aspect of perception and intelligence? A sensory stream, simplified, is a one-dimensional sequence. In learning such sequences, we naturally segment them into parts -- a process known as chunking. In the first project, I investigated factors influencing chunking in a serial reaction time task and showed that humans adapt to underlying chunks while balancing speed and accuracy. Building on this, I developed models that learn chunks and parse sequences chunk by chunk. Normatively, I proposed chunking as a rational strategy for discovering recurring patterns and nested hierarchies, enabling efficient sequence factorization. Learned chunks serve as reusable primitives for transfer, composition, and mental simulation -- letting the model compose the new from the known. I demonstrated this model's ability to learn hierarchies in single and multi-dimensional sequences and highlighted its utility for unsupervised pattern discovery. The second part moves from concrete to abstract sequences. I taxonomized abstract motifs and examined their role in sequence memory. Behavioral evidence suggests that humans exploit pattern redundancies for compression and transfer. I proposed a non-parametric hierarchical variable model that learns both chunks and abstract variables, uncovering invariant symbolic patterns. I showed its similarity to human learning and compared it to large language models. Taken together, this thesis suggests that chunking and abstraction as simple computational principles enable structured knowledge acquisition in hierarchically organized sequences, from simple to complex, concrete to abstract.

Ergodic exploration has spawned a lot of interest in mobile robotics due to its ability to design time trajectories that match desired spatial coverage statistics. However, current ergodic approaches are for continuous spaces, which require detailed sensory information at each point and can lead to fractal-like trajectories that cannot be tracked easily. This paper presents a new ergodic approach for graph-based discretization of continuous spaces. It also introduces a new time-discounted ergodicity metric, wherein early visitations of information-rich nodes are weighted more than late visitations. A Markov chain synthesized using a convex program is shown to converge more rapidly to time-discounted ergodicity than the traditional fastest mixing Markov chain. The resultant ergodic traversal method is used within a hierarchical framework for active inspection of confined spaces with the goal of detecting anomalies robustly using SLAM-driven Bayesian hypothesis testing. Both simulation and physical experiments on a ground robot show the advantages of this framework over greedy and random exploration methods for left-behind foreign object debris detection in a ballast tank.

NeuralODE is one example for generative machine learning based on the push forward of a simple source measure with a bijective mapping, which in the case of NeuralODE is given by the flow of a ordinary differential equation. Using Liouville's formula, the log-density of the push forward measure is easy to compute and thus NeuralODE can be trained based on the maximum Likelihood method such that the Kulback-Leibler divergence between the push forward through the flow map and the target measure generating the data becomes small. In this work, we give a detailed account on the consistency of Maximum Likelihood based empirical risk minimization for a generic class of target measures. In contrast to prior work, we do not only consider the statistical learning theory, but also give a detailed numerical analysis of the NeuralODE algorithm based on the 2nd order Runge-Kutta (RK) time integration. Using the universal approximation theory for deep ReQU networks, the stability and convergence rated for the RK scheme as well as metric entropy and concentration inequalities, we are able to prove that NeuralODE is a probably approximately correct (PAC) learning algorithm.

Air pollution remains one of the most pressing environmental challenges of the modern era, significantly impacting human health, ecosystems, and climate. While traditional air quality monitoring systems provide critical data, their high costs and limited spatial coverage hinder effective real-time pollutant identification. Recent advancements in micro-sensor technology have improved data collection but still lack efficient methods for source identification. This paper explores the innovative application of machine learning (ML) models to classify pollutants in real-time using only data from optical micro-sensors. We propose a novel classification framework capable of distinguishing between four pollutant scenarios: Background Pollution, Ash, Sand, and Candle. Three Machine Learning (ML) approaches - XGBoost, Long Short-Term Memory networks, and Hidden Markov Chains - are evaluated for their effectiveness in sequence modeling and pollutant identification. Our results demonstrate the potential of leveraging micro-sensors and ML techniques to enhance air quality monitoring, offering actionable insights for urban planning and environmental protection.