Learning Graphical Models
An Algebraic Approach to Moralisation and Triangulation of Probabilistic Graphical Models
Lorenzin, Antonio, Zanasi, Fabio
Moralisation and Triangulation are transformations allowing to switch between different ways of factoring a probability distribution into a graphical model. Moralisation allows to view a Bayesian network (a directed model) as a Markov network (an undirected model), whereas triangulation works in the opposite direction. We present a categorical framework where these transformations are modelled as functors between a category of Bayesian networks and one of Markov networks. The two kinds of network (the objects of these categories) are themselves represented as functors, from a `syntax' domain to a `semantics' codomain. Notably, moralisation and triangulation are definable inductively on such syntax, and operate as a form of functor pre-composition. This approach introduces a modular, algebraic perspective in the theory of probabilistic graphical models.
Learning Closed-Loop Parametric Nash Equilibria of Multi-Agent Collaborative Field Coverage
Chen, Jushan, Paternain, Santiago
Multi-agent reinforcement learning is a challenging and active field of research due to the inherent nonstationary property and coupling between agents. A popular approach to modeling the multi-agent interactions underlying the multi-agent RL problem is the Markov Game. There is a special type of Markov Game, termed Markov Potential Game, which allows us to reduce the Markov Game to a single-objective optimal control problem where the objective function is a potential function. In this work, we prove that a multi-agent collaborative field coverage problem, which is found in many engineering applications, can be formulated as a Markov Potential Game, and we can learn a parameterized closed-loop Nash Equilibrium by solving an equivalent single-objective optimal control problem. As a result, our algorithm is 10x faster during training compared to a game-theoretic baseline and converges faster during policy execution.
Large Reasoning Models in Agent Scenarios: Exploring the Necessity of Reasoning Capabilities
Zhou, Xueyang, Tie, Guiyao, Zhang, Guowen, Wang, Weidong, Zuo, Zhigang, Wu, Di, Chu, Duanfeng, Zhou, Pan, Sun, Lichao, Gong, Neil Zhenqiang
The rise of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) signifies a paradigm shift toward advanced computational reasoning. Yet, this progress disrupts traditional agent frameworks, traditionally anchored by execution-oriented Large Language Models (LLMs). To explore this transformation, we propose the LaRMA framework, encompassing nine tasks across Tool Usage, Plan Design, and Problem Solving, assessed with three top LLMs (e.g., Claude3.5-sonnet) and five leading LRMs (e.g., DeepSeek-R1). Our findings address four research questions: LRMs surpass LLMs in reasoning-intensive tasks like Plan Design, leveraging iterative reflection for superior outcomes; LLMs excel in execution-driven tasks such as Tool Usage, prioritizing efficiency; hybrid LLM-LRM configurations, pairing LLMs as actors with LRMs as reflectors, optimize agent performance by blending execution speed with reasoning depth; and LRMs' enhanced reasoning incurs higher computational costs, prolonged processing, and behavioral challenges, including overthinking and fact-ignoring tendencies. This study fosters deeper inquiry into LRMs' balance of deep thinking and overthinking, laying a critical foundation for future agent design advancements.
Heterogeneous Causal Discovery of Repeated Undesirable Health Outcomes
Adhikari, Shishir, Muscioni, Guido, Shapiro, Mark, Petrov, Plamen, Zheleva, Elena
Understanding factors triggering or preventing undesirable health outcomes across patient subpopulations is essential for designing targeted interventions. While randomized controlled trials and expert-led patient interviews are standard methods for identifying these factors, they can be time-consuming and infeasible. Causal discovery offers an alternative to conventional approaches by generating cause-and-effect hypotheses from observational data. However, it often relies on strong or untestable assumptions, which can limit its practical application. This work aims to make causal discovery more practical by considering multiple assumptions and identifying heterogeneous effects. We formulate the problem of discovering causes and effect modifiers of an outcome, where effect modifiers are contexts (e.g., age groups) with heterogeneous causal effects. Then, we present a novel, end-to-end framework that incorporates an ensemble of causal discovery algorithms and estimation of heterogeneous effects to discover causes and effect modifiers that trigger or inhibit the outcome. We demonstrate that the ensemble approach improves robustness by enhancing recall of causal factors while maintaining precision. Our study examines the causes of repeat emergency room visits for diabetic patients and hospital readmissions for ICU patients. Our framework generates causal hypotheses consistent with existing literature and can help practitioners identify potential interventions and patient subpopulations to focus on.
SPECTra: Scalable Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Permutation-Free Networks
Park, Hyunwoo, Seong, Baekryun, Ko, Sang-Ki
In cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), the permutation problem where the state space grows exponentially with the number of agents reduces sample efficiency. Additionally, many existing architectures struggle with scalability, relying on a fixed structure tied to a specific number of agents, limiting their applicability to environments with a variable number of entities. While approaches such as graph neural networks (GNNs) and self-attention mechanisms have progressed in addressing these challenges, they have significant limitations as dense GNNs and self-attention mechanisms incur high computational costs. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel agent network and a non-linear mixing network that ensure permutation-equivariance and scalability, allowing them to generalize to environments with various numbers of agents. Our agent network significantly reduces computational complexity, and our scalable hypernetwork enables efficient weight generation for non-linear mixing. Additionally, we introduce curriculum learning to improve training efficiency. Experiments on SMACv2 and Google Research Football (GRF) demonstrate that our approach achieves superior learning performance compared to existing methods. By addressing both permutation-invariance and scalability in MARL, our work provides a more efficient and adaptable framework for cooperative MARL. Our code is available at https://github.com/funny-rl/SPECTra.
UBMF: Uncertainty-Aware Bayesian Meta-Learning Framework for Fault Diagnosis with Imbalanced Industrial Data
Lian, Zhixuan, Li, Shangyu, Huang, Qixuan, Huang, Zijian, Liu, Haifei, Qiu, Jianan, Yang, Puyu, Tao, Laifa
Fault diagnosis of mechanical equipment involves data collection, feature extraction, and pattern recognition but is often hindered by the imbalanced nature of industrial data, introducing significant uncertainty and reducing diagnostic reliability. To address these challenges, this study proposes the Uncertainty-Aware Bayesian Meta-Learning Framework (UBMF), which integrates four key modules: data perturbation injection for enhancing feature robustness, cross-task self-supervised feature extraction for improving transferability, uncertainty-based sample filtering for robust out-of-domain generalization, and Bayesian meta-knowledge integration for fine-grained classification. Experimental results on ten open-source datasets under various imbalanced conditions, including cross-task, small-sample, and unseen-sample scenarios, demonstrate the superiority of UBMF, achieving an average improvement of 42.22% across ten Any-way 1-5-shot diagnostic tasks. This integrated framework effectively enhances diagnostic accuracy, generalization, and adaptability, providing a reliable solution for complex industrial fault diagnosis.
The Architecture and Evaluation of Bayesian Neural Networks
As modern neural networks get more complex, specifying a model with high predictive performance and sound uncertainty quantification becomes a more challenging task. Despite some promising theoretical results on the true posterior predictive distribution of Bayesian neural networks, the properties of even the most commonly used posterior approximations are often questioned. Computational burdens and intractable posteriors expose miscalibrated Bayesian neural networks to poor accuracy and unreliable uncertainty estimates. Approximate Bayesian inference aims to replace unknown and intractable posterior distributions with some simpler but feasible distributions. The dimensions of modern deep models coupled with the lack of identifiability make Markov chain Monte Carlo tremendously expensive and unable to fully explore the multimodal posterior. On the other hand, variational inference benefits from improved computational complexity but lacks the asymptotical guarantees of sampling-based inference and tends to concentrate around a single mode. The performance of both approaches heavily depends on architectural choices; this paper aims to shed some light on this, by considering the computational costs, accuracy and uncertainty quantification in different scenarios including large width and out-of-sample data. To improve posterior exploration, different model averaging and ensembling techniques are studied, along with their benefits on predictive performance. In our experiments, variational inference overall provided better uncertainty quantification than Markov chain Monte Carlo; further, stacking and ensembles of variational approximations provided comparable to Markov chain Monte Carlo accuracy at a much-reduced cost.
Token-Level Uncertainty-Aware Objective for Language Model Post-Training
Liu, Tingkai, Benjamin, Ari S., Zador, Anthony M.
In the current work, we connect token-level uncertainty in causal language modeling to two types of training objectives: 1) masked maximum likelihood (MLE), 2) self-distillation. We show that masked MLE is effective in reducing epistemic uncertainty, and serve as an effective token-level automatic curriculum learning technique. However, masked MLE is prone to overfitting and requires self-distillation regularization to improve or maintain performance on out-of-distribution tasks. We demonstrate significant performance gain via the proposed training objective - combined masked MLE and self-distillation - across multiple architectures (Gemma, LLaMA, Phi) and datasets (Alpaca, ShareGPT, GSM8K), mitigating overfitting while maintaining adaptability during post-training. Our findings suggest that uncertainty-aware training provides an effective mechanism for enhancing language model training.
Banking on Feedback: Text Analysis of Mobile Banking iOS and Google App Reviews
Amirkhalili, Yekta, Wong, Ho Yi
The rapid growth of mobile banking (m-banking), especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, has reshaped the financial sector. This study analyzes consumer reviews of m-banking apps from five major Canadian banks, collected from Google Play and iOS App stores. Sentiment analysis and topic modeling classify reviews as positive, neutral, or negative, highlighting user preferences and areas for improvement. Data pre-processing was performed with NLTK, a Python language processing tool, and topic modeling used Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). Sentiment analysis compared methods, with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) achieving 82\% accuracy for iOS reviews and Multinomial Naive Bayes 77\% for Google Play. Positive reviews praised usability, reliability, and features, while negative reviews identified login issues, glitches, and dissatisfaction with updates.This is the first study to analyze both iOS and Google Play m-banking app reviews, offering insights into app strengths and weaknesses. Findings underscore the importance of user-friendly designs, stable updates, and better customer service. Advanced text analytics provide actionable recommendations for improving user satisfaction and experience.
Preference Elicitation for Multi-objective Combinatorial Optimization with Active Learning and Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Defresne, Marianne, Mandi, Jayanta, Guns, Tias
Real-life combinatorial optimization problems often involve several conflicting objectives, such as price, product quality and sustainability. A computationally-efficient way to tackle multiple objectives is to aggregate them into a single-objective function, such as a linear combination. However, defining the weights of the linear combination upfront is hard; alternatively, the use of interactive learning methods that ask users to compare candidate solutions is highly promising. The key challenges are to generate candidates quickly, to learn an objective function that leads to high-quality solutions and to do so with few user interactions. We build upon the Constructive Preference Elicitation framework and show how each of the three properties can be improved: to increase the interaction speed we investigate using pools of (relaxed) solutions, to improve the learning we adopt Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Bradley-Terry preference model; and to reduce the number of user interactions, we select the pair of candidates to compare with an ensemble-based acquisition function inspired from Active Learning. Our careful experimentation demonstrates each of these improvements: on a PC configuration task and a realistic multi-instance routing problem, our method selects queries faster, needs fewer queries and synthesizes higher-quality combinatorial solutions than previous CPE methods.