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 Learning Graphical Models


Integrating Dynamical Systems Modeling with Spatiotemporal scRNA-seq Data Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding the dynamic nature of biological systems is fundamental to deciphering cellular behavior, developmental processes, and disease progression. Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) has provided static snapshots of gene expression, offering valuable insights into cellular states at a single time point. Recent advancements in temporally resolved scRNA-seq, spatial transcriptomics (ST), and time-series spatial transcriptomics (temporal-ST) have further revolutionized our ability to study the spatiotemporal dynamics of individual cells. These technologies, when combined with computational frameworks such as Markov chains, stochastic differential equations (SDEs), and generative models like optimal transport and Schr\"odinger bridges, enable the reconstruction of dynamic cellular trajectories and cell fate decisions. This review discusses how these dynamical system approaches offer new opportunities to model and infer cellular dynamics from a systematic perspective.


Unicorn: A Universal and Collaborative Reinforcement Learning Approach Towards Generalizable Network-Wide Traffic Signal Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Adaptive traffic signal control (ATSC) is crucial in reducing congestion, maximizing throughput, and improving mobility in rapidly growing urban areas. Recent advancements in parameter-sharing multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) have greatly enhanced the scalable and adaptive optimization of complex, dynamic flows in large-scale homogeneous networks. However, the inherent heterogeneity of real-world traffic networks, with their varied intersection topologies and interaction dynamics, poses substantial challenges to achieving scalable and effective ATSC across different traffic scenarios. To address these challenges, we present Unicorn, a universal and collaborative MARL framework designed for efficient and adaptable network-wide ATSC. Specifically, we first propose a unified approach to map the states and actions of intersections with varying topologies into a common structure based on traffic movements. Next, we design a Universal Traffic Representation (UTR) module with a decoder-only network for general feature extraction, enhancing the model's adaptability to diverse traffic scenarios. Additionally, we incorporate an Intersection Specifics Representation (ISR) module, designed to identify key latent vectors that represent the unique intersection's topology and traffic dynamics through variational inference techniques. To further refine these latent representations, we employ a contrastive learning approach in a self-supervised manner, which enables better differentiation of intersection-specific features. Moreover, we integrate the state-action dependencies of neighboring agents into policy optimization, which effectively captures dynamic agent interactions and facilitates efficient regional collaboration. Our results show that Unicorn outperforms other methods across various evaluation metrics, highlighting its potential in complex, dynamic traffic networks.


Latent Space Representation of Electricity Market Curves for Improved Prediction Efficiency

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work presents a three-phase ML prediction framework designed to handle a high dimensionality and multivariate time series character of the electricity market curves. In the preprocessing phase, we transform the original data to achieve a unified structure and mitigate the effect of possible outliers. Further, to address the challenge of high dimensionality, we test three dimensionality reduction techniques (PCA, kPCA, UMAP). Finally, we predict supply and demand curves, once represented in a latent space, with a variety of machine learning methods (RF, LSTM, TSMixer). As our results on the MIBEL dataset show, a high dimensional structure of the market curves can be best handled by the nonlinear reduction technique UMAP. Regardless of the ML technique used for prediction, we achieved the lowest values for all considered precision metrics with a UMAP latent space representation in only two or three dimensions, even when compared to PCA and kPCA with five or six dimensions. Further, we demonstrate that the most promising machine learning technique to handle the complex structure of the electricity market curves is a novel TSMixer architecture. Finally, we fill the gap in the field of electricity market curves prediction literature: in addition to standard analysis on the supply side, we applied the ML framework and predicted demand curves too. We discussed the differences in the achieved results for these two types of curves.


An Algebraic Approach to Moralisation and Triangulation of Probabilistic Graphical Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Moralisation and Triangulation are transformations allowing to switch between different ways of factoring a probability distribution into a graphical model. Moralisation allows to view a Bayesian network (a directed model) as a Markov network (an undirected model), whereas triangulation works in the opposite direction. We present a categorical framework where these transformations are modelled as functors between a category of Bayesian networks and one of Markov networks. The two kinds of network (the objects of these categories) are themselves represented as functors, from a `syntax' domain to a `semantics' codomain. Notably, moralisation and triangulation are definable inductively on such syntax, and operate as a form of functor pre-composition. This approach introduces a modular, algebraic perspective in the theory of probabilistic graphical models.


Learning Closed-Loop Parametric Nash Equilibria of Multi-Agent Collaborative Field Coverage

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-agent reinforcement learning is a challenging and active field of research due to the inherent nonstationary property and coupling between agents. A popular approach to modeling the multi-agent interactions underlying the multi-agent RL problem is the Markov Game. There is a special type of Markov Game, termed Markov Potential Game, which allows us to reduce the Markov Game to a single-objective optimal control problem where the objective function is a potential function. In this work, we prove that a multi-agent collaborative field coverage problem, which is found in many engineering applications, can be formulated as a Markov Potential Game, and we can learn a parameterized closed-loop Nash Equilibrium by solving an equivalent single-objective optimal control problem. As a result, our algorithm is 10x faster during training compared to a game-theoretic baseline and converges faster during policy execution.


Large Reasoning Models in Agent Scenarios: Exploring the Necessity of Reasoning Capabilities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rise of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) signifies a paradigm shift toward advanced computational reasoning. Yet, this progress disrupts traditional agent frameworks, traditionally anchored by execution-oriented Large Language Models (LLMs). To explore this transformation, we propose the LaRMA framework, encompassing nine tasks across Tool Usage, Plan Design, and Problem Solving, assessed with three top LLMs (e.g., Claude3.5-sonnet) and five leading LRMs (e.g., DeepSeek-R1). Our findings address four research questions: LRMs surpass LLMs in reasoning-intensive tasks like Plan Design, leveraging iterative reflection for superior outcomes; LLMs excel in execution-driven tasks such as Tool Usage, prioritizing efficiency; hybrid LLM-LRM configurations, pairing LLMs as actors with LRMs as reflectors, optimize agent performance by blending execution speed with reasoning depth; and LRMs' enhanced reasoning incurs higher computational costs, prolonged processing, and behavioral challenges, including overthinking and fact-ignoring tendencies. This study fosters deeper inquiry into LRMs' balance of deep thinking and overthinking, laying a critical foundation for future agent design advancements.


Heterogeneous Causal Discovery of Repeated Undesirable Health Outcomes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding factors triggering or preventing undesirable health outcomes across patient subpopulations is essential for designing targeted interventions. While randomized controlled trials and expert-led patient interviews are standard methods for identifying these factors, they can be time-consuming and infeasible. Causal discovery offers an alternative to conventional approaches by generating cause-and-effect hypotheses from observational data. However, it often relies on strong or untestable assumptions, which can limit its practical application. This work aims to make causal discovery more practical by considering multiple assumptions and identifying heterogeneous effects. We formulate the problem of discovering causes and effect modifiers of an outcome, where effect modifiers are contexts (e.g., age groups) with heterogeneous causal effects. Then, we present a novel, end-to-end framework that incorporates an ensemble of causal discovery algorithms and estimation of heterogeneous effects to discover causes and effect modifiers that trigger or inhibit the outcome. We demonstrate that the ensemble approach improves robustness by enhancing recall of causal factors while maintaining precision. Our study examines the causes of repeat emergency room visits for diabetic patients and hospital readmissions for ICU patients. Our framework generates causal hypotheses consistent with existing literature and can help practitioners identify potential interventions and patient subpopulations to focus on.


SPECTra: Scalable Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Permutation-Free Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), the permutation problem where the state space grows exponentially with the number of agents reduces sample efficiency. Additionally, many existing architectures struggle with scalability, relying on a fixed structure tied to a specific number of agents, limiting their applicability to environments with a variable number of entities. While approaches such as graph neural networks (GNNs) and self-attention mechanisms have progressed in addressing these challenges, they have significant limitations as dense GNNs and self-attention mechanisms incur high computational costs. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel agent network and a non-linear mixing network that ensure permutation-equivariance and scalability, allowing them to generalize to environments with various numbers of agents. Our agent network significantly reduces computational complexity, and our scalable hypernetwork enables efficient weight generation for non-linear mixing. Additionally, we introduce curriculum learning to improve training efficiency. Experiments on SMACv2 and Google Research Football (GRF) demonstrate that our approach achieves superior learning performance compared to existing methods. By addressing both permutation-invariance and scalability in MARL, our work provides a more efficient and adaptable framework for cooperative MARL. Our code is available at https://github.com/funny-rl/SPECTra.


UBMF: Uncertainty-Aware Bayesian Meta-Learning Framework for Fault Diagnosis with Imbalanced Industrial Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Fault diagnosis of mechanical equipment involves data collection, feature extraction, and pattern recognition but is often hindered by the imbalanced nature of industrial data, introducing significant uncertainty and reducing diagnostic reliability. To address these challenges, this study proposes the Uncertainty-Aware Bayesian Meta-Learning Framework (UBMF), which integrates four key modules: data perturbation injection for enhancing feature robustness, cross-task self-supervised feature extraction for improving transferability, uncertainty-based sample filtering for robust out-of-domain generalization, and Bayesian meta-knowledge integration for fine-grained classification. Experimental results on ten open-source datasets under various imbalanced conditions, including cross-task, small-sample, and unseen-sample scenarios, demonstrate the superiority of UBMF, achieving an average improvement of 42.22% across ten Any-way 1-5-shot diagnostic tasks. This integrated framework effectively enhances diagnostic accuracy, generalization, and adaptability, providing a reliable solution for complex industrial fault diagnosis.


The Architecture and Evaluation of Bayesian Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As modern neural networks get more complex, specifying a model with high predictive performance and sound uncertainty quantification becomes a more challenging task. Despite some promising theoretical results on the true posterior predictive distribution of Bayesian neural networks, the properties of even the most commonly used posterior approximations are often questioned. Computational burdens and intractable posteriors expose miscalibrated Bayesian neural networks to poor accuracy and unreliable uncertainty estimates. Approximate Bayesian inference aims to replace unknown and intractable posterior distributions with some simpler but feasible distributions. The dimensions of modern deep models coupled with the lack of identifiability make Markov chain Monte Carlo tremendously expensive and unable to fully explore the multimodal posterior. On the other hand, variational inference benefits from improved computational complexity but lacks the asymptotical guarantees of sampling-based inference and tends to concentrate around a single mode. The performance of both approaches heavily depends on architectural choices; this paper aims to shed some light on this, by considering the computational costs, accuracy and uncertainty quantification in different scenarios including large width and out-of-sample data. To improve posterior exploration, different model averaging and ensembling techniques are studied, along with their benefits on predictive performance. In our experiments, variational inference overall provided better uncertainty quantification than Markov chain Monte Carlo; further, stacking and ensembles of variational approximations provided comparable to Markov chain Monte Carlo accuracy at a much-reduced cost.