Causal generative models (CGMs) have recently emerged as capable approaches to simulate the causal mechanisms generating our observations, enabling causal inference. Unfortunately, existing approaches either are overly restrictive, assuming the absence of hidden confounders, or lack generality, being tailored to a particular query and graph. In this work, we introduce DeCaFlow, a CGM that accounts for hidden confounders in a single amortized training process using only observational data and the causal graph. Importantly, DeCaFlow can provably identify all causal queries with a valid adjustment set or sufficiently informative proxy variables. Remarkably, for the first time to our knowledge, we show that a confounded counterfactual query is identifiable, and thus solvable by DeCaFlow, as long as its interventional counterpart is as well. Our empirical results on diverse settings (including the Ecoli70 dataset, with 3 independent hidden confounders, tens of observed variables and hundreds of causal queries) show that DeCaFlow outperforms existing approaches, while demonstrating its out-of-the-box flexibility.

Quantification (Esuli et al. 2023; González et al. 2017) is the machine learning task of estimating the prevalence (or proportions) of each class in a dataset. Unlike standard classification, which focuses on predicting a label for each individual example, quantification works at the aggregate level by estimating the overall fraction of unlabeled instances belonging to each class. Real-world applications of quantification include but are not limited to ecological modeling (González et al. 2017) (i.e., to characterize entire populations of living species) and market research (Sebastiani 2018) (i.e., for estimating market shares of different products or services). Quantification methods are explicitly designed to account for dataset shift, which occurs when the statistical properties of the training data differ from those of the test data, due to changes in input features, labels, or their relationships. Most quantification methods are tailored to one specific type of dataset shift, namely, prior probability shift (PPS), also referred to as "label shift" (Storkey 2009).

Large language models (LLMs) like GPT-4 and LLaMA-3 utilize the powerful in-context learning (ICL) capability of Transformer architecture to learn on the fly from limited examples. While ICL underpins many LLM applications, its full potential remains hindered by a limited understanding of its generalization boundaries and vulnerabilities. We present a systematic investigation of transformers' generalization capability with ICL relative to training data coverage by defining a task-centric framework along three dimensions: inter-problem, intra-problem, and intra-task generalization. Through extensive simulation and real-world experiments, encompassing tasks such as function fitting, API calling, and translation, we find that transformers lack inter-problem generalization with ICL, but excel in intra-task and intra-problem generalization. When the training data includes a greater variety of mixed tasks, it significantly enhances the generalization ability of ICL on unseen tasks and even on known simple tasks. This guides us in designing training data to maximize the diversity of tasks covered and to combine different tasks whenever possible, rather than solely focusing on the target task for testing.

Partially observable environments present a considerable computational challenge in reinforcement learning due to the need to consider long histories. Learning with a finite window of observations quickly becomes intractable as the window length grows. In this work, we introduce memory traces. Inspired by eligibility traces, these are compact representations of the history of observations in the form of exponential moving averages. We prove sample complexity bounds for the problem of offline on-policy evaluation that quantify the value errors achieved with memory traces for the class of Lipschitz continuous value estimates. We establish a close connection to the window approach, and demonstrate that, in certain environments, learning with memory traces is significantly more sample efficient. Finally, we underline the effectiveness of memory traces empirically in online reinforcement learning experiments for both value prediction and control.

Foundation models (FMs) have achieved remarkable success across various domains, yet their adoption in healthcare remains limited. While significant advances have been made in medical imaging, genetic biomarkers, and time series from electronic health records, the potential of FMs for patient behavior monitoring through wearable devices remains underexplored. These datasets are inherently heterogeneous, multisource, and often exhibit high rates of missing data, posing unique challenges. This paper introduces a novel FM based on a modified vector quantized variational autoencoder (VQ-VAE), specifically designed to process real-world data from wearable devices. We demonstrate that our pretrained FM, trained on a broad cohort of psychiatric patients, performs downstream tasks via its latent representation without fine-tuning on a held-out cohort of suicidal patients. To illustrate this, we develop a probabilistic change-point detection algorithm for suicide detection and demonstrate the FM's effectiveness in predicting emotional states. Our results show that the discrete latent structure of the VQ-VAE outperforms a state-of-the-art Informer architecture in unsupervised suicide detection, while matching its performance in supervised emotion prediction when the latent dimensionality is increased, though at the cost of reduced unsupervised accuracy. This trade-off highlights the need for future FMs to integrate hybrid discrete-continuous structures for balanced performance across tasks.

We study aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty estimation in a learned regressive system dynamics model. Disentangling aleatoric uncertainty (the inherent randomness of the system) from epistemic uncertainty (the lack of data) is crucial for downstream tasks such as risk-aware control and reinforcement learning, efficient exploration, and robust policy transfer. While existing approaches like Gaussian Processes, Bayesian networks, and model ensembles are widely adopted, they suffer from either high computational complexity or inaccurate uncertainty estimation. To address these limitations, we propose the Compressed Data Representation Model (CDRM), a framework that learns a neural network encoding of the data distribution and enables direct sampling from the output distribution. Our approach incorporates a novel inference procedure based on Langevin dynamics sampling, allowing CDRM to predict arbitrary output distributions rather than being constrained to a Gaussian prior. Theoretical analysis provides the conditions where CDRM achieves better memory and computational complexity compared to bin-based compression methods. Empirical evaluations show that CDRM demonstrates a superior capability to identify aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties separately, achieving AUROCs of 0.8876 and 0.9981 on a single test set containing a mixture of both uncertainties. Qualitative results further show that CDRM's capability extends to datasets with multimodal output distributions, a challenging scenario where existing methods consistently fail. Code and supplementary materials are available at https://github.com/ryeii/CDRM.

Robotics Reinforcement Learning (RL) often relies on carefully engineered auxiliary rewards to supplement sparse primary learning objectives to compensate for the lack of large-scale, real-world, trial-and-error data. While these auxiliary rewards accelerate learning, they require significant engineering effort, may introduce human biases, and cannot adapt to the robot's evolving capabilities during training. In this paper, we introduce Reward Training Wheels (RTW), a teacher-student framework that automates auxiliary reward adaptation for robotics RL. To be specific, the RTW teacher dynamically adjusts auxiliary reward weights based on the student's evolving capabilities to determine which auxiliary reward aspects require more or less emphasis to improve the primary objective. We demonstrate RTW on two challenging robot tasks: navigation in highly constrained spaces and off-road vehicle mobility on vertically challenging terrain. In simulation, RTW outperforms expert-designed rewards by 2.35% in navigation success rate and improves off-road mobility performance by 122.62%, while achieving 35% and 3X faster training efficiency, respectively. Physical robot experiments further validate RTW's effectiveness, achieving a perfect success rate (5/5 trials vs. 2/5 for expert-designed rewards) and improving vehicle stability with up to 47.4% reduction in orientation angles.

Large language model (LLM) agents need to perform multi-turn interactions in real-world tasks. However, existing multi-turn RL algorithms for optimizing LLM agents fail to perform effective credit assignment over multiple turns while leveraging the generalization capabilities of LLMs and it remains unclear how to develop such algorithms. To study this, we first introduce a new benchmark, ColBench, where an LLM agent interacts with a human collaborator over multiple turns to solve realistic tasks in backend programming and frontend design. Building on this benchmark, we propose a novel RL algorithm, SWEET-RL (RL with Step-WisE Evaluation from Training-time information), that uses a carefully designed optimization objective to train a critic model with access to additional training-time information. The critic provides step-level rewards for improving the policy model. Our experiments demonstrate that SWEET-RL achieves a 6% absolute improvement in success and win rates on ColBench compared to other state-of-the-art multi-turn RL algorithms, enabling Llama-3.1-8B to match or exceed the performance of GPT4-o in realistic collaborative content creation.

Message-passing graph neural networks (MPNNs) have emerged as the leading approach for machine learning on graphs, attracting significant attention in recent years. While a large set of works explored the expressivity of MPNNs, i.e., their ability to separate graphs and approximate functions over them, comparatively less attention has been directed toward investigating their generalization abilities, i.e., making meaningful predictions beyond the training data. Here, we systematically review the existing literature on the generalization abilities of MPNNs. We analyze the strengths and limitations of various studies in these domains, providing insights into their methodologies and findings. Furthermore, we identify potential avenues for future research, aiming to deepen our understanding of the generalization abilities of MPNNs.

Nonlinear Bayesian update for a prior ensemble is proposed to extend traditional ensemble Kalman filtering to settings characterized by non-Gaussian priors and nonlinear measurement operators. In this framework, the observed component is first denoised via a standard Kalman update, while the unobserved component is estimated using a nonlinear regression approach based on kernel density estimation. The method incorporates a subsampling strategy to ensure stability and, when necessary, employs unsupervised clustering to refine the conditional estimate. Numerical experiments on Lorenz systems and a PDE-constrained inverse problem illustrate that the proposed nonlinear update can reduce estimation errors compared to standard linear updates, especially in highly nonlinear scenarios.