Learning Graphical Models
Dynamics of Algorithmic Content Amplification on TikTok
Baumann, Fabian, Arora, Nipun, Rahwan, Iyad, Czaplicka, Agnieszka
Intelligent algorithms increasingly shape the content we encounter and engage with online. TikTok's For You feed exemplifies extreme algorithm-driven curation, tailoring the stream of video content almost exclusively based on users' explicit and implicit interactions with the platform. Despite growing attention, the dynamics of content amplification on TikTok remain largely unquantified. How quickly, and to what extent, does TikTok's algorithm amplify content aligned with users' interests? To address these questions, we conduct a sock-puppet audit, deploying bots with different interests to engage with TikTok's "For You" feed. Our findings reveal that content aligned with the bots' interests undergoes strong amplification, with rapid reinforcement typically occurring within the first 200 videos watched. While amplification is consistently observed across all interests, its intensity varies by interest, indicating the emergence of topic-specific biases. Time series analyses and Markov models uncover distinct phases of recommendation dynamics, including persistent content reinforcement and a gradual decline in content diversity over time. Although TikTok's algorithm preserves some content diversity, we find a strong negative correlation between amplification and exploration: as the amplification of interest-aligned content increases, engagement with unseen hashtags declines. These findings contribute to discussions on socio-algorithmic feedback loops in the digital age and the trade-offs between personalization and content diversity.
Perspective-Shifted Neuro-Symbolic World Models: A Framework for Socially-Aware Robot Navigation
Alcedo, Kevin, Lima, Pedro U., Alami, Rachid
Navigating in environments alongside humans requires agents to reason under uncertainty and account for the beliefs and intentions of those around them. Under a sequential decision-making framework, egocentric navigation can naturally be represented as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). However, social navigation additionally requires reasoning about the hidden beliefs of others, inherently leading to a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), where agents lack direct access to others' mental states. Inspired by Theory of Mind and Epistemic Planning, we propose (1) a neuro-symbolic model-based reinforcement learning architecture for social navigation, addressing the challenge of belief tracking in partially observable environments; and (2) a perspective-shift operator for belief estimation, leveraging recent work on Influence-based Abstractions (IBA) in structured multi-agent settings.
Dynamic Learning and Productivity for Data Analysts: A Bayesian Hidden Markov Model Perspective
Data analysts are essential in organizations, transforming raw data into insights that drive decision-making and strategy. This study explores how analysts' productivity evolves on a collaborative platform, focusing on two key learning activities: writing queries and viewing peer queries. While traditional research often assumes static models, where performance improves steadily with cumulative learning, such models fail to capture the dynamic nature of real-world learning. To address this, we propose a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that tracks how analysts transition between distinct learning states based on their participation in these activities. Using an industry dataset with 2,001 analysts and 79,797 queries, this study identifies three learning states: novice, intermediate, and advanced. Productivity increases as analysts advance to higher states, reflecting the cumulative benefits of learning. Writing queries benefits analysts across all states, with the largest gains observed for novices. Viewing peer queries supports novices but may hinder analysts in higher states due to cognitive overload or inefficiencies. Transitions between states are also uneven, with progression from intermediate to advanced being particularly challenging. This study advances understanding of into dynamic learning behavior of knowledge worker and offers practical implications for designing systems, optimizing training, enabling personalized learning, and fostering effective knowledge sharing.
A Probabilistic Neuro-symbolic Layer for Algebraic Constraint Satisfaction
Kurscheidt, Leander, Morettin, Paolo, Sebastiani, Roberto, Passerini, Andrea, Vergari, Antonio
In safety-critical applications, guaranteeing the satisfaction of constraints over continuous environments is crucial, e.g., an autonomous agent should never crash into obstacles or go off-road. Neural models struggle in the presence of these constraints, especially when they involve intricate algebraic relationships. To address this, we introduce a differentiable probabilistic layer that guarantees the satisfaction of non-convex algebraic constraints over continuous variables. This probabilistic algebraic layer (PAL) can be seamlessly plugged into any neural architecture and trained via maximum likelihood without requiring approximations. PAL defines a distribution over conjunctions and disjunctions of linear inequalities, parameterized by polynomials. This formulation enables efficient and exact renormalization via symbolic integration, which can be amortized across different data points and easily parallelized on a GPU. We showcase PAL and our integration scheme on a number of benchmarks for algebraic constraint integration and on real-world trajectory data.
Physics-Informed Neural Networks with Unknown Partial Differential Equations: an Application in Multivariate Time Series
Mortezanejad, Seyedeh Azadeh Fallah, Wang, Ruochen, Mohammad-Djafari, Ali
A significant advancement in Neural Network (NN) research is the integration of domain-specific knowledge through custom loss functions. This approach addresses a crucial challenge: how can models utilize physics or mathematical principles to enhance predictions when dealing with sparse, noisy, or incomplete data? Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) put this idea into practice by incorporating physical equations, such as Partial Differential Equations (PDEs), as soft constraints. This guidance helps the networks find solutions that align with established laws. Recently, researchers have expanded this framework to include Bayesian NNs (BNNs), which allow for uncertainty quantification while still adhering to physical principles. But what happens when the governing equations of a system are not known? In this work, we introduce methods to automatically extract PDEs from historical data. We then integrate these learned equations into three different modeling approaches: PINNs, Bayesian-PINNs (B-PINNs), and Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR). To assess these frameworks, we evaluate them on a real-world Multivariate Time Series (MTS) dataset. We compare their effectiveness in forecasting future states under different scenarios: with and without PDE constraints and accuracy considerations. This research aims to bridge the gap between data-driven discovery and physics-guided learning, providing valuable insights for practical applications.
Continual Learning With Quasi-Newton Methods
Eeckt, Steven Vander, Van hamme, Hugo
Received 17 February 2025, accepted 5 March 2025, date of publication 13 March 2025, date of current version 21 March 2025. Continual Learning with Quasi-Newton Methods STEVEN VANDER EECKT and HUGO VAN HAMME (Senior, IEEE) Department Electrical Engineering ESAT-PSI, KU Leuven, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium Corresponding author: Steven Vander Eeeckt (e-mail: steven.vandereeckt@esat.kuleuven.be).ABSTRACT Catastrophic forgetting remains a major challenge when neural networks learn tasks sequentially. Elastic Weight Consolidation (EWC) attempts to address this problem by introducing a Bayesian-inspired regularization loss to preserve knowledge of previously learned tasks. However, EWC relies on a Laplace approximation where the Hessian is simplified to the diagonal of the Fisher information matrix, assuming uncorrelated model parameters. This overly simplistic assumption often leads to poor Hessian estimates, limiting its effectiveness. To overcome this limitation, we introduce Continual Learning with Sampled Quasi-Newton (CSQN), which leverages Quasi-Newton methods to compute more accurate Hessian approximations. Experimental results across four benchmarks demonstrate that CSQN consistently outperforms EWC and other state-of-the-art baselines, including rehearsal-based methods. CSQN reduces EWC's forgetting by 50% and improves its performance by 8% on average. Notably, CSQN achieves superior results on three out of four benchmarks, including the most challenging scenarios, highlighting its potential as a robust solution for continual learning.INDEX TERMS artificial neural networks, catastrophic forgetting, continual learning, quasi-Newton methods I. INTRODUCTION Since the 2010s, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been able to match or even surpass human performance on a wide variety of tasks. However, when presented with a set of tasks to be learned sequentially--a setting referred to as Continual Learning (CL)--ANNs suffer from catastrophic forgetting [1]. Unlike humans, ANNs struggle to retain previously learned knowledge when extending their knowledge. Naively adapting an ANN to a new task generally leads to a deterioration in the network's performance on previous tasks. Many CL methods have been proposed to alleviate catastrophic forgetting. One of the most well-known is Elastic Weight Consolidation (EWC) [2], which approaches CL from a Bayesian perspective. After training on a task, EWC uses Laplace approximation [3] to estimate a posterior distribution over the model parameters for that task. When training on the next task, this posterior is used via a regularization loss to prevent the model from catastrophically forgetting the previous task. To estimate the Hessian, which is needed in the Laplace approximation to measure the (un)certainty of the model parameters, EWC uses the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM). Furthermore, to simplify the computation, EWC assumes that the FIM is approximately diagonal.
Causal Bayesian Optimization with Unknown Graphs
Durand, Jean, Annadani, Yashas, Bauer, Stefan, Parbhoo, Sonali
Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO) is a methodology designed to optimize an outcome variable by leveraging known causal relationships through targeted interventions. Traditional CBO methods require a fully and accurately specified causal graph, which is a limitation in many real-world scenarios where such graphs are unknown. To address this, we propose a new method for the CBO framework that operates without prior knowledge of the causal graph. Consistent with causal bandit theory, we demonstrate through theoretical analysis and that focusing on the direct causal parents of the target variable is sufficient for optimization, and provide empirical validation in the context of CBO. Furthermore we introduce a new method that learns a Bayesian posterior over the direct parents of the target variable. This allows us to optimize the outcome variable while simultaneously learning the causal structure. Our contributions include a derivation of the closed-form posterior distribution for the linear case. In the nonlinear case where the posterior is not tractable, we present a Gaussian Process (GP) approximation that still enables CBO by inferring the parents of the outcome variable. The proposed method performs competitively with existing benchmarks and scales well to larger graphs, making it a practical tool for real-world applications where causal information is incomplete.
A Systematic Review of EEG-based Machine Intelligence Algorithms for Depression Diagnosis, and Monitoring
Nassibi, Amir, Papavassiliou, Christos, Rakhmatulin, Ildar, Mandic, Danilo, Atashzar, S. Farokh
Depression disorder is a serious health condition that has affected the lives of millions of people around the world. Diagnosis of depression is a challenging practice that relies heavily on subjective studies and, in most cases, suffers from late findings. Electroencephalography (EEG) biomarkers have been suggested and investigated in recent years as a potential transformative objective practice. In this article, for the first time, a detailed systematic review of EEG-based depression diagnosis approaches is conducted using advanced machine learning techniques and statistical analyses. For this, 938 potentially relevant articles (since 1985) were initially detected and filtered into 139 relevant articles based on the review scheme 'preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA).' This article compares and discusses the selected articles and categorizes them according to the type of machine learning techniques and statistical analyses. Algorithms, preprocessing techniques, extracted features, and data acquisition systems are discussed and summarized. This review paper explains the existing challenges of the current algorithms and sheds light on the future direction of the field. This systematic review outlines the issues and challenges in machine intelligence for the diagnosis of EEG depression that can be addressed in future studies and possibly in future wearable technologies.
Interpretable Deep Regression Models with Interval-Censored Failure Time Data
Yuan, Changhui, Zhao, Shishun, Li, Shuwei, Song, Xinyuan, Chen, Zhao
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become powerful tools for modeling complex data structures through sequentially integrating simple functions in each hidden layer. In survival analysis, recent advances of DNNs primarily focus on enhancing model capabilities, especially in exploring nonlinear covariate effects under right censoring. However, deep learning methods for interval-censored data, where the unobservable failure time is only known to lie in an interval, remain underexplored and limited to specific data type or model. This work proposes a general regression framework for interval-censored data with a broad class of partially linear transformation models, where key covariate effects are modeled parametrically while nonlinear effects of nuisance multi-modal covariates are approximated via DNNs, balancing interpretability and flexibility. We employ sieve maximum likelihood estimation by leveraging monotone splines to approximate the cumulative baseline hazard function. To ensure reliable and tractable estimation, we develop an EM algorithm incorporating stochastic gradient descent. We establish the asymptotic properties of parameter estimators and show that the DNN estimator achieves minimax-optimal convergence. Extensive simulations demonstrate superior estimation and prediction accuracy over state-of-the-art methods. Applying our method to the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset yields novel insights and improved predictive performance compared to traditional approaches.
Enhancing Graphical Lasso: A Robust Scheme for Non-Stationary Mean Data
Rey, Samuel, Curbelo, Ernesto, Martino, Luca, Llorente, Fernando, Marques, Antonio G.
This work addresses the problem of graph learning from data following a Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) with a time-varying mean. Graphical Lasso (GL), the standard method for estimating sparse precision matrices, assumes that the observed data follows a zero-mean Gaussian distribution. However, this assumption is often violated in real-world scenarios where the mean evolves over time due to external influences, trends, or regime shifts. When the mean is not properly accounted for, applying GL directly can lead to estimating a biased precision matrix, hence hindering the graph learning task. To overcome this limitation, we propose Graphical Lasso with Adaptive Targeted Adaptive Importance Sampling (GL-ATAIS), an iterative method that jointly estimates the time-varying mean and the precision matrix. Our approach integrates Bayesian inference with frequentist estimation, leveraging importance sampling to obtain an estimate of the mean while using a regularized maximum likelihood estimator to infer the precision matrix. By iteratively refining both estimates, GL-ATAIS mitigates the bias introduced by time-varying means, leading to more accurate graph recovery. Our numerical evaluation demonstrates the impact of properly accounting for time-dependent means and highlights the advantages of GL-ATAIS over standard GL in recovering the true graph structure.