-- Certifying safety in dynamical systems is crucial, but barrier certificates -- widely used to verify that system trajectories remain within a safe region -- typically require explicit system models. When dynamics are unknown, data-driven methods can be used instead, yet obtaining a valid certificate requires rigorous uncertainty quantification. For this purpose, existing methods usually rely on full-state measurements, limiting their applicability. This paper proposes a novel approach for synthesizing barrier certificates for unknown systems with latent states and polynomial dynamics. A Bayesian framework is employed, where a prior in state-space representation is updated using input-output data via a targeted marginal Metropolis-Hastings sampler . The resulting samples are used to construct a candidate barrier certificate through a sum-of-squares program. It is shown that if the candidate satisfies the required conditions on a test set of additional samples, it is also valid for the true, unknown system with high probability. The approach and its probabilistic guarantees are illustrated through a numerical simulation. Ensuring the safety of dynamical systems is a critical concern in applications such as human-robot interaction, autonomous driving, and medical devices, where failures can lead to severe consequences. In such scenarios, safety constraints typically mandate that the system state remains within a predefined allowable region. Barrier certificates [1] provide a systematic framework for verifying safety by establishing mathematical conditions that guarantee that system trajectories remain within these regions.

--In this work, we investigate causal learning of independent causal mechanisms from a Bayesian perspective. Confirming previous claims from the literature, we show in a didactically accessible manner that unlabeled data (i.e., cause realizations) do not improve the estimation of the parameters defining the mechanism. Furthermore, we observe the importance of choosing an appropriate prior for the cause and mechanism parameters, respectively. Specifically, we show that a factorized prior results in a factorized posterior, which resonates with Janz-ing and Sch olkopf's definition of independent causal mechanisms via the Kolmogorov complexity of the involved distributions and with the concept of parameter independence of Heckerman et al. Impact Statement --Learning the effect from a given cause is an important problem in many engineering disciplines, specifically in the field of surrogate modeling, which aims to reduce the computational cost of numerical simulations. Causal learning, however, cannot make use of unlabeled data - i.e., cause realizations - if the mechanism that produces the effect is independent from the cause. In this work, we recover this well-known fact from a Bayesian perspective.

This paper presents the Greedy Min-Cut Bayesian Consensus (GMCBC) algorithm for the structural fusion of Bayesian Networks (BNs). The method is designed to preserve essential dependencies while controlling network complexity. It addresses the limitations of traditional fusion approaches, which often lead to excessively complex models that are impractical for inference, reasoning, or real-world applications. As the number and size of input networks increase, this issue becomes even more pronounced. GMCBC integrates principles from flow network theory into BN fusion, adapting the Backward Equivalence Search (BES) phase of the Greedy Equivalence Search (GES) algorithm and applying the Ford-Fulkerson algorithm for minimum cut analysis. This approach removes non-essential edges, ensuring that the fused network retains key dependencies while minimizing unnecessary complexity. Experimental results on synthetic Bayesian Networks demonstrate that GMCBC achieves near-optimal network structures. In federated learning simulations, GMCBC produces a consensus network that improves structural accuracy and dependency preservation compared to the average of the input networks, resulting in a structure that better captures the real underlying (in)dependence relationships. This consensus network also maintains a similar size to the original networks, unlike unrestricted fusion methods, where network size grows exponentially.

-- In this paper, we expand the Bayesian persuasion framework to account for unobserved confounding variables in sender-receiver interactions. While traditional models typically assume that belief updates follow Bayesian principles, real-world scenarios often involve hidden variables that impact the receiver's belief formation and decision-making. Crucially, the receiver's belief update is affected by an unobserved confounding variable. By reformulating this scenario as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), we capture the sender's incomplete information regarding both the dynamics of the receiver's beliefs and the unobserved confounder . We prove that finding an optimal observation-based policy in this POMDP is equivalent to solving for an optimal signaling strategy in the original persuasion framework. Furthermore, we demonstrate how this reformulation facilitates the application of proximal learning for off-policy evaluation (OPE) in the persuasion process. This advancement enables the sender to evaluate alternative signaling strategies using only observational data from a behavioral policy, thus eliminating the necessity for costly new experiments. Strategic information sharing plays a critical role in economic interactions, policy design, and multi-agent systems [1]-[3]. Bayesian persuasion was first introduced by Ka-menica and Gentzkow [4] as a powerful framework for analyzing how a sender can strategically reveal information to influence a receiver's decisions. In the standard setting, a sender commits to an information disclosure policy before observing the state of the world, and the receiver, after observing the sender's message, forms posterior beliefs and takes an action that affects both the sender's and the receiver's utilities. Despite its theoretical elegance, Bayesian persuasion rests on assumptions that may not hold in practical settings. First, the framework presupposes that the sender possesses complete information about the receiver, including their observation process and all features that influence their decision-making (including utility functions).

Membership Inference Attacks (MIA) enable to empirically assess the privacy of a machine learning algorithm. In this paper, we propose TAMIS, a novel MIA against differentially-private synthetic data generation methods that rely on graphical models. This attack builds upon MAMA-MIA, a recently-published state-of-the-art method. It lowers its computational cost and requires less attacker knowledge. Our attack is the product of a two-fold improvement. First, we recover the graphical model having generated a synthetic dataset by using solely that dataset, rather than shadow-modeling over an auxiliary one. This proves less costly and more performant. Second, we introduce a more mathematically-grounded attack score, that provides a natural threshold for binary predictions. In our experiments, TAMIS achieves better or similar performance as MAMA-MIA on replicas of the SNAKE challenge.

Heart disease remains a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, necessitating the development of accurate and reliable predictive models to facilitate early detection and intervention. While state of the art work has focused on various machine learning approaches for predicting heart disease, but they could not able to achieve remarkable accuracy. In response to this need, we applied nine machine learning algorithms XGBoost, logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), gaussian na\"ive bayes (NB gaussian), adaptive boosting, and linear regression to predict heart disease based on a range of physiological indicators. Our approach involved feature selection techniques to identify the most relevant predictors, aimed at refining the models to enhance both performance and interpretability. The models were trained, incorporating processes such as grid search hyperparameter tuning, and cross-validation to minimize overfitting. Additionally, we have developed a novel voting system with feature selection techniques to advance heart disease classification. Furthermore, we have evaluated the models using key performance metrics including accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC). Among the models, XGBoost demonstrated exceptional performance, achieving 99% accuracy, precision, F1-Score, 98% recall, and 100% ROC AUC. This study offers a promising approach to early heart disease diagnosis and preventive healthcare.

Embodied agents operating in real-world environments must interpret ambiguous and under-specified human instructions. A capable household robot should recognize ambiguity and ask relevant clarification questions to infer the user intent accurately, leading to more effective task execution. To study this problem, we introduce the Ask-to-Act task, where an embodied agent must fetch a specific object instance given an ambiguous instruction in a home environment. The agent must strategically ask minimal, yet relevant, clarification questions to resolve ambiguity while navigating under partial observability. To solve this problem, we propose a novel approach that fine-tunes multimodal large language models (MLLMs) as vision-language-action (VLA) policies using online reinforcement learning (RL) with LLM-generated rewards. Our method eliminates the need for large-scale human demonstrations or manually engineered rewards for training such agents. We benchmark against strong zero-shot baselines, including GPT-4o, and supervised fine-tuned MLLMs, on our task. Our results demonstrate that our RL-finetuned MLLM outperforms all baselines by a significant margin ($19.1$-$40.3\%$), generalizing well to novel scenes and tasks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of adapting MLLMs as VLA agents that can act and ask for help using LLM-generated rewards with online RL.

V alue of Information-based Deceptive Path Planning Under Adversarial Interventions Wesley A. Suttle, Jesse Milzman, Mustafa O. Karabag, Brian M. Sadler, Ufuk Topcu Abstract -- Existing methods for deceptive path planning (DPP) address the problem of designing paths that conceal their true goal from a passive, external observer . Such methods do not apply to problems where the observer has the ability to perform adversarial interventions to impede the path planning agent. In this paper, we propose a novel Markov decision process (MDP)-based model for the DPP problem under adversarial interventions and develop new value of information (V oI) objectives to guide the design of DPP policies. Using the V oI objectives we propose, path planning agents deceive the adversarial observer into choosing suboptimal interventions by selecting trajectories that are of low informational value to the observer . Leveraging connections to the linear programming theory for MDPs, we derive computationally efficient solution methods for synthesizing policies for performing DPP under adversarial interventions. In our experiments, we illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed solution method in achieving deceptiveness under adversarial interventions and demonstrate the superior performance of our approach to both existing DPP methods and conservative path planning approaches on illustrative gridworld problems. I NTRODUCTION Deceptive path planning (DPP) is the problem of designing a path that conceals its true objective from an outside observer. Several approaches to this problem have recently been developed, using model-based planning [1], [2], [3], [4] and model-free reinforcement learning [5], [6], [7], [8]. These methods make the strong assumption that the observer is passive and unable to affect the path planning agent's environment, however, significantly limiting their applicability.

While large language model (LLM)-based chatbots have been applied for effective engagement in credit dialogues, their capacity for dynamic emotional expression remains limited. Current agents primarily rely on passive empathy rather than affective reasoning. For instance, when faced with persistent client negativity, the agent should employ strategic emotional adaptation by expressing measured anger to discourage counterproductive behavior and guide the conversation toward resolution. This context-aware emotional modulation is essential for imitating the nuanced decision-making of human negotiators. This paper introduces an EQ-negotiator that combines emotion sensing from pre-trained language models (PLMs) with emotional reasoning based on Game Theory and Hidden Markov Models. It takes into account both the current and historical emotions of the client to better manage and address negative emotions during interactions. By fine-tuning pre-trained language models (PLMs) on public emotion datasets and validating them on the credit dialogue datasets, our approach enables LLM-based agents to effectively capture shifts in client emotions and dynamically adjust their response tone based on our emotion decision policies in real-world financial negotiations. This EQ-negotiator can also help credit agencies foster positive client relationships, enhancing satisfaction in credit services.

Designing efficient learning algorithms with complexity guarantees for Markov decision processes (MDPs) with large or continuous state and action spaces remains a fundamental challenge. We address this challenge for entropy-regularized MDPs with Polish state and action spaces, assuming access to a generative model of the environment. We propose a novel family of multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) algorithms that integrate fixed-point iteration with MLMC techniques and a generic stochastic approximation of the Bellman operator. We quantify the precise impact of the chosen approximate Bellman operator on the accuracy of the resulting MLMC estimator. Leveraging this error analysis, we show that using a biased plain MC estimate for the Bellman operator results in quasi-polynomial sample complexity, whereas an unbiased randomized multilevel approximation of the Bellman operator achieves polynomial sample complexity in expectation. Notably, these complexity bounds are independent of the dimensions or cardinalities of the state and action spaces, distinguishing our approach from existing algorithms whose complexities scale with the sizes of these spaces. We validate these theoretical performance guarantees through numerical experiments.