Department of Decision Sciences, Bocconi Institute for Data Science and Analytics, Bocconi University, Milan Abstract Accurate tuning of hyperparameters is crucial to ensure that models can generalise effectively across different settings. We construct a variational approximation to a hierarchical Bayes procedure, and derive upper bounds for the contraction rate of the variational posterior in an abstract setting. The theory is applied to various Gaussian process priors and variational classes, resulting in minimax optimal rates. Our theoretical results are accompanied with numerical analysis both on synthetic and real world data sets. Keywords: variational inference, Bayesian model selection, Gaussian processes, nonparametric regression, adaptation, posterior contraction rates 1 Introduction A core challenge in Bayesian statistics is scalability, i.e. the computation of the posterior for large sample sizes. Variational Bayes approximation is a standard approach to speed up inference. Variational posteriors are random probability measures that minimise the Kullback-Leibler divergence between a suitable class of distributions and the otherwise hard to compute posterior. Typically, the variational class of distributions over which the optimisation takes place does not contain the original posterior, hence the variational procedure can be viewed as a projection onto this class. The projected variational distribution then approximates the posterior. During the approximation procedure one inevitably loses information and hence it is important to characterize the accuracy of the approach. Despite the wide use of variational approximations, their theoretical underpinning started to emerge only recently, see for instance Alquier and Ridgway (2020); Yang et al. (2020); Zhang and Gao (2020a); Ray and Szab o (2022). In a Bayesian procedure, the choice of prior reflects the presumed properties of the unknown parameter. In comparison to regular parametric models, where in view of the Bernstein-von Mises theorem the posterior is asymptotically normal, the prior plays a crucial role in the asymptotic behaviour of the posterior. In fact, the large-sample behaviour of the posterior typically depends intricately on the choice of prior hyperparam-eters, so it is vital that these are tuned correctly. The two classical approaches are hierarchical and empirical Bayes methods.

Complex systems with intricate causal dependencies challenge accurate prediction. Effective modeling requires precise physical process representation, integration of interdependent factors, and incorporation of multi-resolution observational data. These systems manifest in both static scenarios with instantaneous causal chains and temporal scenarios with evolving dynamics, complicating modeling efforts. Current methods struggle to simultaneously handle varying resolutions, capture physical relationships, model causal dependencies, and incorporate temporal dynamics, especially with inconsistently sampled data from diverse sources. We introduce Temporal-SVGDM: Score-based Variational Graphical Diffusion Model for Multi-resolution observations. Our framework constructs individual SDEs for each variable at its native resolution, then couples these SDEs through a causal score mechanism where parent nodes inform child nodes' evolution. This enables unified modeling of both immediate causal effects in static scenarios and evolving dependencies in temporal scenarios. In temporal models, state representations are processed through a sequence prediction model to predict future states based on historical patterns and causal relationships. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate improved prediction accuracy and causal understanding compared to existing methods, with robust performance under varying levels of background knowledge. Our model exhibits graceful degradation across different disaster types, successfully handling both static earthquake scenarios and temporal hurricane and wildfire scenarios, while maintaining superior performance even with limited data.

Increasing test-time computation has emerged as a promising direction for improving language model performance, particularly in scenarios where model finetuning is impractical or impossible due to computational constraints or private model weights. However, existing test-time search methods using a reward model (RM) often degrade in quality as compute scales, due to the over-optimization of what are inherently imperfect reward proxies. We introduce QAlign, a new test-time alignment approach. As we scale test-time compute, QAlign converges to sampling from the optimal aligned distribution for each individual prompt. By adopting recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo for text generation, our method enables better-aligned outputs without modifying the underlying model or even requiring logit access. We demonstrate the effectiveness of QAlign on mathematical reasoning benchmarks (GSM8K and GSM-Symbolic) using a task-specific RM, showing consistent improvements over existing test-time compute methods like best-of-n and majority voting. Furthermore, when applied with more realistic RMs trained on the Tulu 3 preference dataset, QAlign outperforms direct preference optimization (DPO), best-of-n, majority voting, and weighted majority voting on a diverse range of datasets (GSM8K, MATH500, IFEval, MMLU-Redux, and TruthfulQA). A practical solution to aligning language models at test time using additional computation without degradation, our approach expands the limits of the capability that can be obtained from off-the-shelf language models without further training.

-- Certifying safety in dynamical systems is crucial, but barrier certificates -- widely used to verify that system trajectories remain within a safe region -- typically require explicit system models. When dynamics are unknown, data-driven methods can be used instead, yet obtaining a valid certificate requires rigorous uncertainty quantification. For this purpose, existing methods usually rely on full-state measurements, limiting their applicability. This paper proposes a novel approach for synthesizing barrier certificates for unknown systems with latent states and polynomial dynamics. A Bayesian framework is employed, where a prior in state-space representation is updated using input-output data via a targeted marginal Metropolis-Hastings sampler . The resulting samples are used to construct a candidate barrier certificate through a sum-of-squares program. It is shown that if the candidate satisfies the required conditions on a test set of additional samples, it is also valid for the true, unknown system with high probability. The approach and its probabilistic guarantees are illustrated through a numerical simulation. Ensuring the safety of dynamical systems is a critical concern in applications such as human-robot interaction, autonomous driving, and medical devices, where failures can lead to severe consequences. In such scenarios, safety constraints typically mandate that the system state remains within a predefined allowable region. Barrier certificates [1] provide a systematic framework for verifying safety by establishing mathematical conditions that guarantee that system trajectories remain within these regions.

--In this work, we investigate causal learning of independent causal mechanisms from a Bayesian perspective. Confirming previous claims from the literature, we show in a didactically accessible manner that unlabeled data (i.e., cause realizations) do not improve the estimation of the parameters defining the mechanism. Furthermore, we observe the importance of choosing an appropriate prior for the cause and mechanism parameters, respectively. Specifically, we show that a factorized prior results in a factorized posterior, which resonates with Janz-ing and Sch olkopf's definition of independent causal mechanisms via the Kolmogorov complexity of the involved distributions and with the concept of parameter independence of Heckerman et al. Impact Statement --Learning the effect from a given cause is an important problem in many engineering disciplines, specifically in the field of surrogate modeling, which aims to reduce the computational cost of numerical simulations. Causal learning, however, cannot make use of unlabeled data - i.e., cause realizations - if the mechanism that produces the effect is independent from the cause. In this work, we recover this well-known fact from a Bayesian perspective.

This paper presents the Greedy Min-Cut Bayesian Consensus (GMCBC) algorithm for the structural fusion of Bayesian Networks (BNs). The method is designed to preserve essential dependencies while controlling network complexity. It addresses the limitations of traditional fusion approaches, which often lead to excessively complex models that are impractical for inference, reasoning, or real-world applications. As the number and size of input networks increase, this issue becomes even more pronounced. GMCBC integrates principles from flow network theory into BN fusion, adapting the Backward Equivalence Search (BES) phase of the Greedy Equivalence Search (GES) algorithm and applying the Ford-Fulkerson algorithm for minimum cut analysis. This approach removes non-essential edges, ensuring that the fused network retains key dependencies while minimizing unnecessary complexity. Experimental results on synthetic Bayesian Networks demonstrate that GMCBC achieves near-optimal network structures. In federated learning simulations, GMCBC produces a consensus network that improves structural accuracy and dependency preservation compared to the average of the input networks, resulting in a structure that better captures the real underlying (in)dependence relationships. This consensus network also maintains a similar size to the original networks, unlike unrestricted fusion methods, where network size grows exponentially.

-- In this paper, we expand the Bayesian persuasion framework to account for unobserved confounding variables in sender-receiver interactions. While traditional models typically assume that belief updates follow Bayesian principles, real-world scenarios often involve hidden variables that impact the receiver's belief formation and decision-making. Crucially, the receiver's belief update is affected by an unobserved confounding variable. By reformulating this scenario as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), we capture the sender's incomplete information regarding both the dynamics of the receiver's beliefs and the unobserved confounder . We prove that finding an optimal observation-based policy in this POMDP is equivalent to solving for an optimal signaling strategy in the original persuasion framework. Furthermore, we demonstrate how this reformulation facilitates the application of proximal learning for off-policy evaluation (OPE) in the persuasion process. This advancement enables the sender to evaluate alternative signaling strategies using only observational data from a behavioral policy, thus eliminating the necessity for costly new experiments. Strategic information sharing plays a critical role in economic interactions, policy design, and multi-agent systems [1]-[3]. Bayesian persuasion was first introduced by Ka-menica and Gentzkow [4] as a powerful framework for analyzing how a sender can strategically reveal information to influence a receiver's decisions. In the standard setting, a sender commits to an information disclosure policy before observing the state of the world, and the receiver, after observing the sender's message, forms posterior beliefs and takes an action that affects both the sender's and the receiver's utilities. Despite its theoretical elegance, Bayesian persuasion rests on assumptions that may not hold in practical settings. First, the framework presupposes that the sender possesses complete information about the receiver, including their observation process and all features that influence their decision-making (including utility functions).

Membership Inference Attacks (MIA) enable to empirically assess the privacy of a machine learning algorithm. In this paper, we propose TAMIS, a novel MIA against differentially-private synthetic data generation methods that rely on graphical models. This attack builds upon MAMA-MIA, a recently-published state-of-the-art method. It lowers its computational cost and requires less attacker knowledge. Our attack is the product of a two-fold improvement. First, we recover the graphical model having generated a synthetic dataset by using solely that dataset, rather than shadow-modeling over an auxiliary one. This proves less costly and more performant. Second, we introduce a more mathematically-grounded attack score, that provides a natural threshold for binary predictions. In our experiments, TAMIS achieves better or similar performance as MAMA-MIA on replicas of the SNAKE challenge.

Heart disease remains a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, necessitating the development of accurate and reliable predictive models to facilitate early detection and intervention. While state of the art work has focused on various machine learning approaches for predicting heart disease, but they could not able to achieve remarkable accuracy. In response to this need, we applied nine machine learning algorithms XGBoost, logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), gaussian na\"ive bayes (NB gaussian), adaptive boosting, and linear regression to predict heart disease based on a range of physiological indicators. Our approach involved feature selection techniques to identify the most relevant predictors, aimed at refining the models to enhance both performance and interpretability. The models were trained, incorporating processes such as grid search hyperparameter tuning, and cross-validation to minimize overfitting. Additionally, we have developed a novel voting system with feature selection techniques to advance heart disease classification. Furthermore, we have evaluated the models using key performance metrics including accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC). Among the models, XGBoost demonstrated exceptional performance, achieving 99% accuracy, precision, F1-Score, 98% recall, and 100% ROC AUC. This study offers a promising approach to early heart disease diagnosis and preventive healthcare.

Embodied agents operating in real-world environments must interpret ambiguous and under-specified human instructions. A capable household robot should recognize ambiguity and ask relevant clarification questions to infer the user intent accurately, leading to more effective task execution. To study this problem, we introduce the Ask-to-Act task, where an embodied agent must fetch a specific object instance given an ambiguous instruction in a home environment. The agent must strategically ask minimal, yet relevant, clarification questions to resolve ambiguity while navigating under partial observability. To solve this problem, we propose a novel approach that fine-tunes multimodal large language models (MLLMs) as vision-language-action (VLA) policies using online reinforcement learning (RL) with LLM-generated rewards. Our method eliminates the need for large-scale human demonstrations or manually engineered rewards for training such agents. We benchmark against strong zero-shot baselines, including GPT-4o, and supervised fine-tuned MLLMs, on our task. Our results demonstrate that our RL-finetuned MLLM outperforms all baselines by a significant margin ($19.1$-$40.3\%$), generalizing well to novel scenes and tasks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of adapting MLLMs as VLA agents that can act and ask for help using LLM-generated rewards with online RL.