Humans are sensitive to suspicious coincidences when generalizing inductively over data, as they make assumptions as to how the data was sampled. This results in smaller, more specific hypotheses being favored over more general ones. For instance, when provided the set {Austin, Dallas, Houston}, one is more likely to think that this is sampled from "Texas Cities" over "US Cities" even though both are compatible. Suspicious coincidence is strongly connected to pragmatic reasoning, and can serve as a testbed to analyze systems on their sensitivity towards the communicative goals of the task (i.e., figuring out the true category underlying the data). In this paper, we analyze whether suspicious coincidence effects are reflected in language models' (LMs) behavior. We do so in the context of two domains: 1) the number game, where humans made judgments of whether a number (e.g., 4) fits a list of given numbers (e.g., 16, 32, 2); and 2) by extending the number game setup to prominent cities. For both domains, the data is compatible with multiple hypotheses and we study which hypothesis is most consistent with the models' behavior. On analyzing five models, we do not find strong evidence for suspicious coincidences in LMs' zero-shot behavior. However, when provided access to the hypotheses space via chain-of-thought or explicit prompting, LMs start to show an effect resembling suspicious coincidences, sometimes even showing effects consistent with humans. Our study suggests that inductive reasoning behavior in LMs can be enhanced with explicit access to the hypothesis landscape.

Automatic generation control (AGC) systems play a crucial role in maintaining system frequency across power grids. However, AGC systems' reliance on communicated measurements exposes them to false data injection attacks (FDIAs), which can compromise the overall system stability. This paper proposes a machine learning (ML)-based detection framework that identifies FDIAs and determines the compromised measurements. The approach utilizes an ML model trained offline to accurately detect attacks and classify the manipulated signals based on a comprehensive set of statistical and time-series features extracted from AGC measurements before and after disturbances. For the proposed approach, we compare the performance of several powerful ML algorithms. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method in detecting FDIAs while maintaining a low false alarm rate, with an F1-score of up to 99.98%, outperforming existing approaches.

Pretrained masked language models (MLMs) have demonstrated an impressive capability to comprehend and encode conceptual knowledge, revealing a lattice structure among concepts. This raises a critical question: how does this conceptualization emerge from MLM pretraining? In this paper, we explore this problem from the perspective of Formal Concept Analysis (FCA), a mathematical framework that derives concept lattices from the observations of object-attribute relationships. We show that the MLM's objective implicitly learns a \emph{formal context} that describes objects, attributes, and their dependencies, which enables the reconstruction of a concept lattice through FCA. We propose a novel framework for concept lattice construction from pretrained MLMs and investigate the origin of the inductive biases of MLMs in lattice structure learning. Our framework differs from previous work because it does not rely on human-defined concepts and allows for discovering "latent" concepts that extend beyond human definitions. We create three datasets for evaluation, and the empirical results verify our hypothesis.

Existing distribution compression methods, like Kernel Herding (KH), were originally developed for unlabelled data. However, no existing approach directly compresses the conditional distribution of labelled data. To address this gap, we first introduce the Average Maximum Conditional Mean Discrepancy (AMCMD), a natural metric for comparing conditional distributions. We then derive a consistent estimator for the AMCMD and establish its rate of convergence. Next, we make a key observation: in the context of distribution compression, the cost of constructing a compressed set targeting the AMCMD can be reduced from $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$ to $\mathcal{O}(n)$. Building on this, we extend the idea of KH to develop Average Conditional Kernel Herding (ACKH), a linear-time greedy algorithm that constructs a compressed set targeting the AMCMD. To better understand the advantages of directly compressing the conditional distribution rather than doing so via the joint distribution, we introduce Joint Kernel Herding (JKH), a straightforward adaptation of KH designed to compress the joint distribution of labelled data. While herding methods provide a simple and interpretable selection process, they rely on a greedy heuristic. To explore alternative optimisation strategies, we propose Joint Kernel Inducing Points (JKIP) and Average Conditional Kernel Inducing Points (ACKIP), which jointly optimise the compressed set while maintaining linear complexity. Experiments show that directly preserving conditional distributions with ACKIP outperforms both joint distribution compression (via JKH and JKIP) and the greedy selection used in ACKH. Moreover, we see that JKIP consistently outperforms JKH.

Aggregation methods have emerged as a powerful and flexible framework in statistical learning, providing unified solutions across diverse problems such as regression, classification, and density estimation. In the context of generalized linear models (GLMs), where responses follow exponential family distributions, aggregation offers an attractive alternative to classical parametric modeling. This paper investigates the problem of sparse aggregation in GLMs, aiming to approximate the true parameter vector by a sparse linear combination of predictors. We prove that an exponential weighted aggregation scheme yields a sharp oracle inequality for the Kullback-Leibler risk with leading constant equal to one, while also attaining the minimax-optimal rate of aggregation. These results are further enhanced by establishing high-probability bounds on the excess risk.

Reinforcement learning in partially observable environments is typically challenging, as it requires agents to learn an estimate of the underlying system state. These challenges are exacerbated in multi-agent settings, where agents learn simultaneously and influence the underlying state as well as each others' observations. We propose the use of learned beliefs on the underlying state of the system to overcome these challenges and enable reinforcement learning with fully decentralized training and execution. Our approach leverages state information to pre-train a probabilistic belief model in a self-supervised fashion. The resulting belief states, which capture both inferred state information as well as uncertainty over this information, are then used in a state-based reinforcement learning algorithm to create an end-to-end model for cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning under partial observability. By separating the belief and reinforcement learning tasks, we are able to significantly simplify the policy and value function learning tasks and improve both the convergence speed and the final performance. We evaluate our proposed method on diverse partially observable multi-agent tasks designed to exhibit different variants of partial observability.

Tradable credit schemes (TCS) are an increasingly studied alternative to congestion pricing, given their revenue neutrality and ability to address issues of equity through the initial credit allocation. Modeling TCS to aid future design and implementation is associated with challenges involving user and market behaviors, demand-supply dynamics, and control mechanisms. In this paper, we focus on the latter and address the day-to-day dynamic tolling problem under TCS, which is formulated as a discrete-time Markov Decision Process and solved using reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. Our results indicate that RL algorithms achieve travel times and social welfare comparable to the Bayesian optimization benchmark, with generalization across varying capacities and demand levels. We further assess the robustness of RL under different hyperparameters and apply regularization techniques to mitigate action oscillation, which generates practical tolling strategies that are transferable under day-to-day demand and supply variability. Finally, we discuss potential challenges such as scaling to large networks, and show how transfer learning can be leveraged to improve computational efficiency and facilitate the practical deployment of RL-based TCS solutions.

Given the demand for responsible and trustworthy AI for education, this study evaluates symbolic, sub-symbolic, and neural-symbolic AI (NSAI) in terms of generalizability and interpretability. Our extensive experiments on balanced and imbalanced self-regulated learning datasets of Estonian primary school students predicting 7th-grade mathematics national test performance showed that symbolic and sub-symbolic methods performed well on balanced data but struggled to identify low performers in imbalanced datasets. Interestingly, symbolic and sub-symbolic methods emphasized different factors in their decision-making: symbolic approaches primarily relied on cognitive and motivational factors, while sub-symbolic methods focused more on cognitive aspects, learnt knowledge, and the demographic variable of gender -- yet both largely overlooked metacognitive factors. The NSAI method, on the other hand, showed advantages by: (i) being more generalizable across both classes -- even in imbalanced datasets -- as its symbolic knowledge component compensated for the underrepresented class; and (ii) relying on a more integrated set of factors in its decision-making, including motivation, (meta)cognition, and learnt knowledge, thus offering a comprehensive and theoretically grounded interpretability framework. These contrasting findings highlight the need for a holistic comparison of AI methods before drawing conclusions based solely on predictive performance. They also underscore the potential of hybrid, human-centred NSAI methods to address the limitations of other AI families and move us closer to responsible AI for education. Specifically, by enabling stakeholders to contribute to AI design, NSAI aligns learned patterns with theoretical constructs, incorporates factors like motivation and metacognition, and strengthens the trustworthiness and responsibility of educational data mining.

This paper addresses the problem of sparse phase retrieval, a fundamental inverse problem in applied mathematics, physics, and engineering, where a signal need to be reconstructed using only the magnitude of its transformation while phase information remains inaccessible. Leveraging the inherent sparsity of many real-world signals, we introduce a novel sparse quasi-Bayesian approach and provide the first theoretical guarantees for such an approach. Specifically, we employ a scaled Student distribution as a continuous shrinkage prior to enforce sparsity and analyze the method using the PAC-Bayesian inequality framework. Our results establish that the proposed Bayesian estimator achieves minimax-optimal convergence rates under sub-exponential noise, matching those of state-of-the-art frequentist methods. To ensure computational feasibility, we develop an efficient Langevin Monte Carlo sampling algorithm. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that our method performs comparably to existing frequentist techniques, highlighting its potential as a principled alternative for sparse phase retrieval in noisy settings.

In this paper, we study the offline sequential feature-based pricing and inventory control problem where the current demand depends on the past demand levels and any demand exceeding the available inventory is lost. Our goal is to leverage the offline dataset, consisting of past prices, ordering quantities, inventory levels, covariates, and censored sales levels, to estimate the optimal pricing and inventory control policy that maximizes long-term profit. While the underlying dynamic without censoring can be modeled by Markov decision process (MDP), the primary obstacle arises from the observed process where demand censoring is present, resulting in missing profit information, the failure of the Markov property, and a non-stationary optimal policy. To overcome these challenges, we first approximate the optimal policy by solving a high-order MDP characterized by the number of consecutive censoring instances, which ultimately boils down to solving a specialized Bellman equation tailored for this problem. Inspired by offline reinforcement learning and survival analysis, we propose two novel data-driven algorithms to solving these Bellman equations and, thus, estimate the optimal policy. Furthermore, we establish finite sample regret bounds to validate the effectiveness of these algorithms. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithms in estimating the optimal policy. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first data-driven approach to learning optimal pricing and inventory control policies in a sequential decision-making environment characterized by censored and dependent demand. The implementations of the proposed algorithms are available at https://github.com/gundemkorel/Inventory_Pricing_Control