Theory-of-Mind (ToM) enables humans to infer mental states-such as beliefs, desires, and intentions-forming the foundation of social cognition. However, existing computational ToM methods rely on structured workflows with ToM-specific priors or deep model fine-tuning, which struggle with scalability in multimodal environments and fail to generalize as task complexity increases. To address these limitations, we propose a scalable Bayesian ToM planner that decomposes ToM reasoning into stepwise Bayesian updates. Our framework introduces weak-to-strong control, allowing smaller language models (LMs) to specialize in ToM-specific likelihood estimation and transfer their reasoning behaviors to larger LMs (7B to 405B) for integration with social and world knowledge. This synergistic approach aligns large-model inference of human mental states with Bayesian principles. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves a 4.6% accuracy improvement over state-of-the-art techniques on multimodal ToM benchmarks, including challenging unseen scenarios, thereby establishing a new standard for modeling human mental states in complex environments.

Slow Feature Analysis is a unsupervised representation learning method that extracts slowly varying features from temporal data and can be used as a basis for subsequent reinforcement learning. Often, the behavior that generates the data on which the representation is learned is assumed to be a uniform random walk. Less research has focused on using samples generated by goal-directed behavior, as commonly the case in a reinforcement learning setting, to learn a representation. In a spatial setting, goal-directed behavior typically leads to significant differences in state occupancy between states that are close to a reward location and far from a reward location. Through the perspective of optimal slow features on ergodic Markov chains, this work investigates the effects of these differences on value-function approximation in an idealized setting. Furthermore, three correction routes, which can potentially alleviate detrimental scaling effects, are evaluated and discussed. In addition, the special case of goal-averse behavior is considered.

The Fourier representation for the uniform distribution over the Boolean cube has found numerous applications in algorithms and complexity analysis. Notably, in learning theory, learnability of Disjunctive Normal Form (DNF) under uniform as well as product distributions has been established through such representations. This paper makes five main contributions. First, it introduces a generalized Fourier expansion that can be used with any distribution $D$ through the representation of the distribution as a Bayesian network (BN). Second, it shows that the main algorithmic tools for learning with the Fourier representation, that use membership queries to approximate functions by recovering their heavy Fourier coefficients, can be used with slight modifications with the generalized expansion. These results hold for any distribution. Third, it analyzes the $L_1$ spectral norm of conjunctions under the new expansion, showing that it is bounded for a class of distributions which can be represented by difference bounded tree BN, where a parent node in the BN representation can change the conditional expectation of a child node by at most $α<0.5$. Lower bounds are presented to show that such constraints are necessary. The fourth contribution uses these results to show the learnability of DNF with membership queries under difference bounded tree BN. The final contribution is to develop an algorithm for learning difference-bounded tree BN distributions, thus extending the DNF learnability result to cases where the distribution is not known in advance.

Model reprogramming adapts pretrained models to downstream tasks by modifying only the input and output spaces. Visual reprogramming (VR) is one instance for vision tasks that adds a trainable noise pattern (i.e., a visual prompt) to input images to facilitate downstream classification. The existing VR approaches for CLIP train a single visual prompt using all descriptions of different downstream classes. However, the limited learning capacity may result in (1) a failure to capture diverse aspects of the descriptions (e.g., shape, color, and texture), and (2) a possible bias toward less informative attributes that do not help distinguish between classes. In this paper, we introduce a decoupling-and-reweighting framework. Our decoupled visual prompts (DVP) are optimized using descriptions grouped by explicit causes (DVP-cse) or unsupervised clusters (DVP-cls). Then, we integrate the outputs of these visual prompts with a probabilistic reweighting matrix (PRM) that measures their contributions to each downstream class. Theoretically, DVP lowers the empirical risk bound. Experimentally, DVP outperforms baselines on average across 11 downstream datasets. Notably, the DVP-PRM integration enables insights into how individual visual prompts influence classification decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for understanding reprogramming. Our code is available at https://github.com/tmlr-group/DecoupledVP.

Uncertainty quantification is critical in safety-sensitive applications but is often omitted from off-the-shelf neural networks due to adverse effects on predictive performance. Retrofitting uncertainty estimates post-hoc typically requires access to model parameters or gradients, limiting feasibility in practice. We propose a theoretically grounded framework for post-hoc uncertainty estimation in regression tasks by fitting an auxiliary model to both original inputs and frozen model outputs. Drawing from principles of maximum likelihood estimation and sequential parameter fitting, we formalize an exact post-hoc optimization objective that recovers the canonical MLE of Gaussian parameters, without requiring sampling or approximation at inference. While prior work has used model outputs to estimate uncertainty, we explicitly characterize the conditions under which this is valid and demonstrate the extent to which structured outputs can support quasi-epistemic inference. We find that using diverse auxiliary data, such as augmented subsets of the original training data, significantly enhances OOD detection and metric performance. Our hypothesis that frozen model outputs contain generalizable latent information about model error and predictive uncertainty is tested and confirmed. Finally, we ensure that our method maintains proper estimation of input-dependent uncertainty without relying exclusively on base model forecasts. These findings are demonstrated in toy problems and adapted to both UCI and depth regression benchmarks. Code: https://github.com/biggzlar/IO-CUE.

This paper critically re-evaluates LLMs' role in causal discovery and argues against their direct involvement in determining causal relationships. We demonstrate that LLMs' autoregressive, correlation-driven modeling inherently lacks the theoretical grounding for causal reasoning and introduces unreliability when used as priors in causal discovery algorithms. Through empirical studies, we expose the limitations of existing LLM-based methods and reveal that deliberate prompt engineering (e.g., injecting ground-truth knowledge) could overstate their performance, helping to explain the consistently favorable results reported in much of the current literature. Based on these findings, we strictly confined LLMs' role to a non-decisional auxiliary capacity: LLMs should not participate in determining the existence or directionality of causal relationships, but can assist the search process for causal graphs (e.g., LLM-based heuristic search). Experiments across various settings confirm that, by strictly isolating LLMs from causal decision-making, LLM-guided heuristic search can accelerate the convergence and outperform both traditional and LLM-based methods in causal structure learning. We conclude with a call for the community to shift focus from naively applying LLMs to developing specialized models and training method that respect the core principles of causal discovery.

Recent advances in autonomous vehicles have shifted development from rigid pipelines to end-to-end neural policies mapping raw sensor streams directly to control commands [1-3]. While these models offer streamlined architectures and strong benchmark performance, they raise critical deployment concerns. Their internal logic is opaque, complicating validation in safety-critical settings. They struggle to generalize to rare events like severe weather or infrastructure damage and lack formal guarantees on kinematic properties such as speed limits and lane-keeping. Further, they provide no natural interface for human oversight or explanation. These challenges motivate frameworks that combine deep network expressiveness with transparency, robustness, and provable safety. Meanwhile, Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated human-level reasoning and visual grounding [4-6]. Recent works like VLM-SR (Shaped Rewards) [7], VLM-RM (Reward Models) [8], and RoboCLIP (Language-Conditioned Robot Learning via Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining) [9] inject semantic feedback into Reinforcement Learning (RL), but rely on static prompts unsuited to evolving road conditions and overlook vehicle dynamics.

We give an algorithm for learning $O(\log n)$ juntas in polynomial-time with respect to Markov Random Fields (MRFs) in a smoothed analysis framework where only the external field has been randomly perturbed. This is a broad generalization of the work of Kalai and Teng, who gave an algorithm that succeeded with respect to smoothed product distributions (i.e., MRFs whose dependency graph has no edges). Our algorithm has two phases: (1) an unsupervised structure learning phase and (2) a greedy supervised learning algorithm. This is the first example where algorithms for learning the structure of an undirected graphical model lead to provably efficient algorithms for supervised learning.

We propose a novel discriminative model for sequence labeling called Bregman conditional random fields (BCRF). Contrary to standard linear-chain conditional random fields, BCRF allows fast parallelizable inference algorithms based on iterative Bregman projections. We show how such models can be learned using Fenchel-Young losses, including extension for learning from partial labels. Experimentally, our approach delivers comparable results to CRF while being faster, and achieves better results in highly constrained settings compared to mean field, another parallelizable alternative.

Machine learning models, particularly deep neural networks, are vulnerable to privacy attacks such as membership inference attacks (MIAs), which determine whether a specific data point was included in a model's training set [9, 10, 2]. These attacks exploit the tendency of models to exhibit distinct behaviors (e.g. higher confidence or lower loss) on training data compared to unseen data, potentially compromising the confidentiality of sensitive datasets, such as those containing medical or financial records. State-of-the-art MIAs typically rely on extensive knowledge of the target model. For example, shadow model-based approaches [9] train multiple models to mimic the target's behavior, while others, e.g. the likelihood ratio attack (LiRA) by Carlini et al. [2], leverage model outputs or gradients. These methods often induce significant computational costs or require access to model internals, limiting their applicability in scenarios where only model outputs are available. We propose a new MIA method that leverages Bayesian inference for post-hoc analysis of trained model and datasets. Once a ML model, e.g. a neural network, has been trained on member datasets, we pass the test data through the trained ML model, and extract resulting metrics such as accuracy, entropy, perturbation magnitude, and dataset statistics, and uses these metrics to compute posterior probabilities of membership. This approach doesn't require access to a'training' set, although known knowledge about member and non-member datasets can improve its performance. This post-hoc method is computationally efficient, interpretable, requires minimum model query and fine-tuning, making it well-suited for real-world deployment scenarios where privacy assessments are conducted after model training.