Sketches have shown high accuracy in multi-way join cardinality estimation, a critical problem in cost-based query optimization. Accurately estimating the cardinality of a join operation -- analogous to its computational cost -- allows the optimization of query execution costs in relational database systems. However, although sketches have shown high efficacy in query optimization, they are typically constructed specifically for predefined selections in queries that are assumed to be given a priori, hindering their applicability to new queries. As a more general solution, we propose for Sum-Product Networks to dynamically approximate sketches on-the-fly. Sum-Product Networks can decompose and model multivariate distributions, such as relations, as linear combinations of multiple univariate distributions. By representing these univariate distributions as sketches, Sum-Product Networks can combine them element-wise to efficiently approximate the sketch of any query selection. These approximate sketches can then be applied to join cardinality estimation. In particular, we implement the Fast-AGMS and Bound Sketch methods, which have successfully been used in prior work, despite their costly construction. By accurately approximating them instead, our work provides a practical alternative to apply these sketches to query optimization.

Autonomous drones capable of interpreting and executing high-level language instructions in unstructured environments remain a long-standing goal. Yet existing approaches are constrained by their dependence on hand-crafted skills, extensive parameter tuning, or computationally intensive models unsuitable for onboard use. We introduce GRaD-Nav++, a lightweight Vision-Language-Action (VLA) framework that runs fully onboard and follows natural-language commands in real time. Our policy is trained in a photorealistic 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) simulator via Differentiable Reinforcement Learning (DiffRL), enabling efficient learning of low-level control from visual and linguistic inputs. At its core is a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) action head, which adaptively routes computation to improve generalization while mitigating forgetting. In multi-task generalization experiments, GRaD-Nav++ achieves a success rate of 83% on trained tasks and 75% on unseen tasks in simulation. When deployed on real hardware, it attains 67% success on trained tasks and 50% on unseen ones. In multi-environment adaptation experiments, GRaD-Nav++ achieves an average success rate of 81% across diverse simulated environments and 67% across varied real-world settings. These results establish a new benchmark for fully onboard Vision-Language-Action (VLA) flight and demonstrate that compact, efficient models can enable reliable, language-guided navigation without relying on external infrastructure.

This textbook provides a systematic treatment of statistical machine learning for astronomical research through the lens of Bayesian inference, developing a unified framework that reveals connections between modern data analysis techniques and traditional statistical methods. We show how these techniques emerge from familiar statistical foundations. The consistently Bayesian perspective prioritizes uncertainty quantification and statistical rigor essential for scientific inference in astronomy. The textbook progresses from probability theory and Bayesian inference through supervised learning including linear regression with measurement uncertainties, logistic regression, and classification. Unsupervised learning topics cover Principal Component Analysis and clustering methods. We then introduce computational techniques through sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo, followed by Gaussian Processes as probabilistic nonparametric methods and neural networks within the broader statistical context. Our theory-focused pedagogical approach derives each method from first principles with complete mathematical development, emphasizing statistical insight and complementing with astronomical applications. We prioritize understanding why algorithms work, when they are appropriate, and how they connect to broader statistical principles. The treatment builds toward modern techniques including neural networks through a solid foundation in classical methods and their theoretical underpinnings. This foundation enables thoughtful application of these methods to astronomical research, ensuring proper consideration of assumptions, limitations, and uncertainty propagation essential for advancing astronomical knowledge in the era of large astronomical surveys.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) excel in graph representation learning by integrating graph structure and node features. Existing GNNs, unfortunately, fail to account for the uncertainty of class probabilities that vary with the depth of the model, leading to unreliable and risky predictions in real-world scenarios. To bridge the gap, in this paper, we propose a novel Evidence Fusing Graph Neural Network (EFGNN for short) to achieve trustworthy prediction, enhance node classification accuracy, and make explicit the risk of wrong predictions. In particular, we integrate the evidence theory with multi-hop propagation-based GNN architecture to quantify the prediction uncertainty of each node with the consideration of multiple receptive fields. Moreover, a parameter-free cumulative belief fusion (CBF) mechanism is developed to leverage the changes in prediction uncertainty and fuse the evidence to improve the trustworthiness of the final prediction. To effectively optimize the EFGNN model, we carefully design a joint learning objective composed of evidence cross-entropy, dissonance coefficient, and false confident penalty. The experimental results on various datasets and theoretical analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in terms of accuracy and trustworthiness, as well as its robustness to potential attacks. The source code of EFGNN is available at https://github.com/Shiy-Li/EFGNN.

Fair clustering has become a socially significant task with the advancement of machine learning technologies and the growing demand for trustworthy AI. Group fairness ensures that the proportions of each sensitive group are similar in all clusters. Most existing group-fair clustering methods are based on the $K$-means clustering and thus require the distance between instances and the number of clusters to be given in advance. To resolve this limitation, we propose a fair Bayesian model-based clustering called Fair Bayesian Clustering (FBC). We develop a specially designed prior which puts its mass only on fair clusters, and implement an efficient MCMC algorithm. Advantages of FBC are that it can infer the number of clusters and can be applied to any data type as long as the likelihood is defined (e.g., categorical data). Experiments on real-world datasets show that FBC (i) reasonably infers the number of clusters, (ii) achieves a competitive utility-fairness trade-off compared to existing fair clustering methods, and (iii) performs well on categorical data.

ADMM is a popular method for federated deep learning which originated in the 1970s and, even though many new variants of it have been proposed since then, its core algorithmic structure has remained unchanged. Here, we take a major departure from the old structure and present a fundamentally new way to derive and extend federated ADMM. We propose to use a structure called Bayesian Duality which exploits a duality of the posterior distributions obtained by solving a variational-Bayesian reformulation of the original problem. We show that this naturally recovers the original ADMM when isotropic Gaussian posteriors are used, and yields non-trivial extensions for other posterior forms. For instance, full-covariance Gaussians lead to Newton-like variants of ADMM, while diagonal covariances result in a cheap Adam-like variant. This is especially useful to handle heterogeneity in federated deep learning, giving up to 7% accuracy improvements over recent baselines. Our work opens a new Bayesian path to improve primal-dual methods.

Recent advances in diffusion models have revolutionized generative AI, but their sheer size makes on device personalization, and thus effective federated learning (FL), infeasible. We propose Shared Backbone Personal Identity Representation Embeddings (SPIRE), a framework that casts per client diffusion based generation as conditional generation in FL. SPIRE factorizes the network into (i) a high capacity global backbone that learns a population level score function and (ii) lightweight, learnable client embeddings that encode local data statistics. This separation enables parameter efficient finetuning that touches $\leq 0.01\%$ of weights. We provide the first theoretical bridge between conditional diffusion training and maximum likelihood estimation in Gaussian mixture models. For a two component mixture we prove that gradient descent on the DDPM with respect to mixing weights loss recovers the optimal mixing weights and enjoys dimension free error bounds. Our analysis also hints at how client embeddings act as biases that steer a shared score network toward personalized distributions. Empirically, SPIRE matches or surpasses strong baselines during collaborative pretraining, and vastly outperforms them when adapting to unseen clients, reducing Kernel Inception Distance while updating only hundreds of parameters. SPIRE further mitigates catastrophic forgetting and remains robust across finetuning learning rate and epoch choices.

The Maximum Cut (MaxCut) problem is NP-Complete, and obtaining its optimal solution is NP-hard in the worst case. As a result, heuristic-based algorithms are commonly used, though their design often requires significant domain expertise. More recently, learning-based methods trained on large (un)labeled datasets have been proposed; however, these approaches often struggle with generalizability and scalability. A well-known approximation algorithm for MaxCut is the Goemans-Williamson (GW) algorithm, which relaxes the Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) formulation into a semidefinite program (SDP). The GW algorithm then applies hyperplane rounding by uniformly sampling a random hyperplane to convert the SDP solution into binary node assignments. In this paper, we propose a training-data-free approach based on a non-episodic reinforcement learning formulation, in which an agent learns to select improved rounding hyperplanes that yield better cuts than those produced by the GW algorithm. By optimizing over a Markov Decision Process (MDP), our method consistently achieves better cuts across large-scale graphs with varying densities and degree distributions.

The emergence of online social platforms, such as social networks and social media, has drastically affected the way people apprehend the information flows to which they are exposed. In such platforms, various information cascades spreading among users is the main force creating complex dynamics of opinion formation, each user being characterized by their own behavior adoption mechanism. Moreover, the spread of multiple pieces of information or beliefs in a networked population is rarely uncorrelated. In this paper, we introduce the Mixture of Interacting Cascades (MIC), a model of marked multidimensional Hawkes processes with the capacity to model jointly non-trivial interaction between cascades and users. We emphasize on the interplay between information cascades and user activity, and use a mixture of temporal point processes to build a coupled user/cascade point process model. Experiments on synthetic and real data highlight the benefits of this approach and demonstrate that MIC achieves superior performance to existing methods in modeling the spread of information cascades. Finally, we demonstrate how MIC can provide, through its learned parameters, insightful bi-layered visualizations of real social network activity data.

In the past decades, machine learning with Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) has demonstrated great capability in learning and exploiting the statistical patterns from data, or even surpassing humans. Despite the success, ERM avoids the modeling of causality the way of understanding and handling changes, which is fundamental to human intelligence. When deploying models beyond the training environment, distribution shifts are everywhere. For example, an autopilot system often needs to deal with new weather conditions that have not been seen during training, An Al-aided drug discovery system needs to predict the biochemical properties of molecules with respect to new viruses such as COVID-19. It renders the problem of Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization challenging to conventional machine learning. In this thesis, we investigate how to incorporate and realize the causality for broader tasks in modern machine learning. In particular, we exploit the invariance implied by the principle of independent causal mechanisms (ICM), that is, the causal mechanisms generating the effects from causes do not inform or influence each other. Therefore, the conditional distribution between the target variable given its causes is invariant under distribution shifts. With the causal invariance principle, we first instantiate it to graphs -- a general data structure ubiquitous in many real-world industry and scientific applications, such as financial networks and molecules. Then, we shall see how learning the causality benefits many of the desirable properties of modern machine learning, in terms of (i) OOD generalization capability; (ii) interpretability; and (iii) robustness to adversarial attacks. Realizing the causality in machine learning, on the other hand, raises a dilemma for optimization in conventional machine learning, as it often contradicts the objective of ERM...