This research addresses critical autonomous vehicle control challenges arising from road roughness variation, which induces course deviations and potential loss of road contact during steering operations. We present a novel real-time road roughness estimation system employing Bayesian calibration methodology that processes axle accelerations to predict terrain roughness with quantifiable confidence measures. The technical framework integrates a Gaussian process surrogate model with a simulated half-vehicle model, systematically processing vehicle velocity and road surface roughness parameters to generate corresponding axle acceleration responses. The Bayesian calibration routine performs inverse estimation of road roughness from observed accelerations and velocities, yielding posterior distributions that quantify prediction uncertainty for adaptive risk management. Training data generation utilizes Latin Hypercube sampling across comprehensive velocity and roughness parameter spaces, while the calibrated model integrates seamlessly with a Simplex controller architecture to dynamically adjust velocity limits based on real-time roughness predictions. Experimental validation on stochastically generated surfaces featuring varying roughness regions demonstrates robust real-time characterization capabilities, with the integrated Simplex control strategy effectively enhancing autonomous vehicle operational safety through proactive surface condition response. This innovative Bayesian framework establishes a comprehensive foundation for mitigating roughness-related operational risks while simultaneously improving efficiency and safety margins in autonomous vehicle systems.

We study value-iteration (VI) algorithms for solving general (a.k.a. multichain) Markov decision processes (MDPs) under the average-reward criterion, a fundamental but theoretically challenging setting. Beyond the difficulties inherent to all average-reward problems posed by the lack of contractivity and non-uniqueness of solutions to the Bellman operator, in the multichain setting an optimal policy must solve the navigation subproblem of steering towards the best connected component, in addition to optimizing long-run performance within each component. We develop algorithms which better solve this navigational subproblem in order to achieve faster convergence for multichain MDPs, obtaining improved rates of convergence and sharper measures of complexity relative to prior work. Many key components of our results are of potential independent interest, including novel connections between average-reward and discounted problems, optimal fixed-point methods for discounted VI which extend to general Banach spaces, new sublinear convergence rates for the discounted value error, and refined suboptimality decompositions for multichain MDPs. Overall our results yield faster convergence rates for discounted and average-reward problems and expand the theoretical foundations of VI approaches.

Modern observatories are designed to deliver increasingly detailed views of astrophysical signals. To fully realize the potential of these observations, principled data-analysis methods are required to effectively separate and reconstruct the underlying astrophysical components from data corrupted by noise and instrumental effects. In this work, we introduce a novel multi-frequency Bayesian model of the sky emission field that leverages latent-space tension as an indicator of model misspecification, enabling automated separation of diffuse, point-like, and extended astrophysical emission components across wavelength bands. Deviations from latent-space prior expectations are used as diagnostics for model misspecification, thus systematically guiding the introduction of new sky components, such as point-like and extended sources. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method on synthetic multi-frequency imaging data and apply it to observational X-ray data from the eROSITA Early Data Release (EDR) of the SN1987A region in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Our results highlight the method's capability to reconstruct astrophysical components with high accuracy, achieving sub-pixel localization of point sources, robust separation of extended emission, and detailed uncertainty quantification. The developed methodology offers a general and well-founded framework applicable to a wide variety of astronomical datasets, and is therefore well suited to support the analysis needs of next-generation multi-wavelength and multi-messenger surveys.

We develop sampling methods, which consist of Gaussian invariant versions of random walk Metropolis (RWM), Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) and second order Hessian or Manifold MALA. Unlike standard RWM and MALA we show that Gaussian invariant sampling can lead to ergodic estimators with improved statistical efficiency. This is due to a remarkable property of Gaussian invariance that allows us to obtain exact analytical solutions to the Poisson equation for Gaussian targets. These solutions can be used to construct efficient and easy to use control variates for variance reduction of estimators under any intractable target. We demonstrate the new samplers and estimators in several examples, including high dimensional targets in latent Gaussian models where we compare against several advanced methods and obtain state-of-the-art results. We also provide theoretical results regarding geometric ergodicity, and an optimal scaling analysis that shows the dependence of the optimal acceptance rate on the Gaussianity of the target.

Recent work analyzing in-context learning (ICL) has identified a broad set of strategies that describe model behavior in different experimental conditions. We aim to unify these findings by asking why a model learns these disparate strategies in the first place. Specifically, we start with the observation that when trained to learn a mixture of tasks, as is popular in the literature, the strategies learned by a model for performing ICL can be captured by a family of Bayesian predictors: a memorizing predictor, which assumes a discrete prior on the set of seen tasks, and a generalizing predictor, where the prior matches the underlying task distribution. Adopting the normative lens of rational analysis, where a learner's behavior is explained as an optimal adaptation to data given computational constraints, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian framework that almost perfectly predicts Transformer next-token predictions throughout training -- without assuming access to its weights. Under this framework, pretraining is viewed as a process of updating the posterior probability of different strategies, and inference-time behavior as a posterior-weighted average over these strategies' predictions. Our framework draws on common assumptions about neural network learning dynamics, which make explicit a tradeoff between loss and complexity among candidate strategies: beyond how well it explains the data, a model's preference towards implementing a strategy is dictated by its complexity. This helps explain well-known ICL phenomena, while offering novel predictions: e.g., we show a superlinear trend in the timescale for transitioning from generalization to memorization as task diversity increases. Overall, our work advances an explanatory and predictive account of ICL grounded in tradeoffs between strategy loss and complexity.

Transition path sampling (TPS), which involves finding probable paths connecting two points on an energy landscape, remains a challenge due to the complexity of real-world atomistic systems. Current machine learning approaches use expensive, task-specific, and data-free training procedures, limiting their ability to benefit from high-quality datasets and large-scale pre-trained models. In this work, we address TPS by interpreting candidate paths as trajectories sampled from stochastic dynamics induced by the learned score function of pre-trained generative models, specifically denoising diffusion and flow matching. Under these dynamics, finding high-likelihood transition paths becomes equivalent to minimizing the Onsager-Machlup (OM) action functional. This enables us to repurpose pre-trained generative models for TPS in a zero-shot manner, in contrast with bespoke, task-specific approaches in previous work. We demonstrate our approach on varied molecular systems, obtaining diverse, physically realistic transition pathways and generalizing beyond the pre-trained model's original training dataset. Our method can be easily incorporated into new generative models, making it practically relevant as models continue to scale and improve with increased data availability. Code is available at github.com/ASK-Berkeley/OM-TPS.

Discrete latent factor models (DLFMs) are widely used in various domains such as machine learning, economics, neuroscience, psychology, etc. Currently, fitting a DLFM to some dataset relies on a customized solver for individual models, which requires lots of effort to implement and is limited to the targeted specific instance of DLFMs. In this paper, we propose a generic framework based on CVXPY, which allows users to specify and solve the fitting problem of a wide range of DLFMs, including both regression and classification models, within a very short script. Our framework is flexible and inherently supports the integration of regularization terms and constraints on the DLFM parameters and latent factors, such that the users can easily prototype the DLFM structure according to their dataset and application scenario. We introduce our open-source Python implementation and illustrate the framework in several examples.

Modern cyberattacks in cyber-physical systems (CPS) rapidly evolve and cannot be deterred effectively with most current methods which focused on characterizing past threats. Adaptive anomaly detection (AAD) is among the most promising techniques to detect evolving cyberattacks focused on fast data processing and model adaptation. AAD has been researched in the literature extensively; however, to the best of our knowledge, our work is the first systematic literature review (SLR) on the current research within this field. We present a comprehensive SLR, gathering 397 relevant papers and systematically analyzing 65 of them (47 research and 18 survey papers) on AAD in CPS studies from 2013 to 2023 (November). We introduce a novel taxonomy considering attack types, CPS application, learning paradigm, data management, and algorithms. Our analysis indicates, among other findings, that reviewed works focused on a single aspect of adaptation (either data processing or model adaptation) but rarely in both at the same time. We aim to help researchers to advance the state of the art and help practitioners to become familiar with recent progress in this field. We identify the limitations of the state of the art and provide recommendations for future research directions.

Despite their widespread use, large language models (LLMs) are known to hallucinate incorrect information and be poorly calibrated. This makes the uncertainty quantification of these models of critical importance, especially in high-stakes domains, such as autonomy and healthcare. Prior work has made Bayesian deep learning-based approaches to this problem more tractable by performing inference over the low-rank adaptation (LoRA) parameters of a fine-tuned model. While effective, these approaches struggle to scale to larger LLMs due to requiring further additional parameters compared to LoRA. In this work we present $\textbf{Scala}$ble $\textbf{B}$ayesian $\textbf{L}$ow-Rank Adaptation via Stochastic Variational Subspace Inference (ScalaBL). We perform Bayesian inference in an $r$-dimensional subspace, for LoRA rank $r$. By repurposing the LoRA parameters as projection matrices, we are able to map samples from this subspace into the full weight space of the LLM. This allows us to learn all the parameters of our approach using stochastic variational inference. Despite the low dimensionality of our subspace, we are able to achieve competitive performance with state-of-the-art approaches while only requiring ${\sim}1000$ additional parameters. Furthermore, it allows us to scale up to the largest Bayesian LLM to date, with four times as a many base parameters as prior work.

-- In this paper, we tackle the task of adaptive time allocation in integrated sensing and communication systems equipped with radar and communication units. The dual-functional radar-communication system's task involves allocating dwell times for tracking multiple targets and utilizing the remaining time for data transmission towards estimated target locations. We introduce a novel constrained deep reinforcement learning (CDRL) approach, designed to optimize resource allocation between tracking and communication under time budget constraints, thereby enhancing target communication quality. Our numerical results demonstrate the efficiency of our proposed CDRL framework, confirming its ability to maximize communication quality in highly dynamic environments while adhering to time constraints. A. Background 1) Cognitive Radar: Radar technology, integral to various applications in environmental sensing, space exploration, navigation, and traffic control, has become increasingly important with the emergence of autonomous vehicles and drones.