This paper introduces a new type of probabilistic semiparametric model that takes advantage of data binning to reduce the computational cost of kernel density estimation in nonparametric distributions. Two new conditional probability distributions are developed for the new binned semiparametric Bayesian networks, the sparse binned kernel density estimation and the Fourier kernel density estimation. These two probability distributions address the curse of dimensionality, which typically impacts binned models, by using sparse tensors and restricting the number of parent nodes in conditional probability calculations. To evaluate the proposal, we perform a complexity analysis and conduct several comparative experiments using synthetic data and datasets from the UCI Machine Learning repository. The experiments include different binning rules, parent restrictions, grid sizes, and number of instances to get a holistic view of the model's behavior. As a result, our binned semiparametric Bayesian networks achieve structural learning and log-likelihood estimations with no statistically significant differences compared to the semiparametric Bayesian networks, but at a much higher speed. Thus, the new binned semiparametric Bayesian networks prove to be a reliable and more efficient alternative to their non-binned counterparts.

Our goal is to enable robots to plan sequences of tabletop actions to push a block with unknown physical properties to a desired goal pose. We approach this problem by learning the constituent models of a Partially-Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), where the robot can observe the outcome of a push, but the physical properties of the block that govern the dynamics remain unknown. A common solution approach is to train an observation model in a supervised fashion, and do inference with a general inference technique such as particle filters. However, supervised training requires knowledge of the relevant physical properties that determine the problem dynamics, which we do not assume to be known. Planning also requires simulating many belief updates, which becomes expensive when using particle filters to represent the belief. We propose to learn an Attentive Neural Process that computes the belief over a learned latent representation of the relevant physical properties given a history of actions. To address the pushing planning problem, we integrate a trained Neural Process with a double-progressive widening sampling strategy. Simulation results indicate that Neural Process Tree with Double Progressive Widening (NPT-DPW) generates better-performing plans faster than traditional particle-filter methods that use a supervised-trained observation model, even in complex pushing scenarios.

A structural optimization scheme for a single-layer nonnegative adaptive tensor tree (NATT) that models a target probability distribution is proposed as an alternative paradigm for generative modeling. The NATT scheme, by construction, automatically searches for a tree structure that best fits a given discrete dataset whose features serve as inputs, and has the advantage that it is interpretable as a probabilistic graphical model. We consider the NATT scheme and a recently proposed Born machine adaptive tensor tree (BMATT) optimization scheme and demonstrate their effectiveness on a variety of generative modeling tasks where the objective is to infer the hidden structure of a provided dataset. Our results show that in terms of minimizing the negative log-likelihood, the single-layer scheme has model performance comparable to the Born machine scheme, though not better. The tasks include deducing the structure of binary bitwise operations, learning the internal structure of random Bayesian networks given only visible sites, and a real-world example related to hierarchical clustering where a cladogram is constructed from mitochondrial DNA sequences. In doing so, we also show the importance of the choice of network topology and the versatility of a least-mutual information criterion in selecting a candidate structure for a tensor tree, as well as discuss aspects of these tensor tree generative models including their information content and interpretability.

As autonomous agents powered by large language models (LLMs) continue to demonstrate potential across various assistive tasks, ensuring their safe and reliable behavior is crucial for preventing unintended consequences. In this work, we introduce CIP, a novel technique that leverages causal influence diagrams (CIDs) to identify and mitigate risks arising from agent decision-making. CIDs provide a structured representation of cause-and-effect relationships, enabling agents to anticipate harmful outcomes and make safer decisions. Our approach consists of three key steps: (1) initializing a CID based on task specifications to outline the decision-making process, (2) guiding agent interactions with the environment using the CID, and (3) iteratively refining the CID based on observed behaviors and outcomes. Experimental results demonstrate that our method effectively enhances safety in both code execution and mobile device control tasks.

HIV epidemiological data is increasingly complex, requiring advanced computation for accurate cluster detection and forecasting. We employed quantum-accelerated machine learning to analyze HIV prevalence at the ZIP-code level using AIDSVu and synthetic SDoH data for 2022. Our approach compared classical clustering (DBSCAN, HDBSCAN) with a quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA), developed a hybrid quantum-classical neural network for HIV prevalence forecasting, and used quantum Bayesian networks to explore causal links between SDoH factors and HIV incidence. The QAOA-based method achieved 92% accuracy in cluster detection within 1.6 seconds, outperforming classical algorithms. Meanwhile, the hybrid quantum-classical neural network predicted HIV prevalence with 94% accuracy, surpassing a purely classical counterpart. Quantum Bayesian analysis identified housing instability as a key driver of HIV cluster emergence and expansion, with stigma exerting a geographically variable influence. These quantum-enhanced methods deliver greater precision and efficiency in HIV surveillance while illuminating critical causal pathways. This work can guide targeted interventions, optimize resource allocation for PrEP, and address structural inequities fueling HIV transmission.

Beat tracking in musical performance MIDI is a challenging and important task for notation-level music transcription and rhythmical analysis, yet existing methods primarily focus on audio-based approaches. This paper proposes an end-to-end transformer-based model for beat and downbeat tracking in performance MIDI, leveraging an encoder-decoder architecture for sequence-to-sequence translation of MIDI input to beat annotations. Our approach introduces novel data preprocessing techniques, including dynamic augmentation and optimized tokenization strategies, to improve accuracy and generalizability across different datasets. We conduct extensive experiments using the A-MAPS, ASAP, GuitarSet, and Leduc datasets, comparing our model against state-of-the-art hidden Markov models (HMMs) and deep learning-based beat tracking methods. The results demonstrate that our model outperforms existing symbolic music beat tracking approaches, achieving competitive F1-scores across various musical styles and instruments. Our findings highlight the potential of transformer architectures for symbolic beat tracking and suggest future integration with automatic music transcription systems for enhanced music analysis and score generation.

Autoregressive models have driven remarkable progress in language modeling. Their foundational reliance on discrete tokens, unidirectional context, and single-pass decoding, while central to their success, also inspires the exploration of a design space that could offer new axes of modeling flexibility. In this work, we explore an alternative paradigm, shifting language modeling from a discrete token space to a continuous latent space. We propose a novel framework TarFlowLM, that employs transformer-based autoregressive normalizing flows to model these continuous representations. This approach unlocks substantial flexibility, enabling the construction of models that can capture global bi-directional context through stacked, alternating-direction autoregressive transformations, support block-wise generation with flexible token patch sizes, and facilitate a hierarchical multi-pass generation process. We further propose new mixture-based coupling transformations designed to capture complex dependencies within the latent space shaped by discrete data, and demonstrate theoretical connections to conventional discrete autoregressive models. Extensive experiments on language modeling benchmarks demonstrate strong likelihood performance and highlight the flexible modeling capabilities inherent in our framework.

Learning from ambiguous labels is a long-standing problem in practical machine learning applications. The purpose of \emph{partial label learning} (PLL) is to identify the ground-truth label from a set of candidate labels associated with a given instance. Inspired by the remarkable performance of diffusion models in various generation tasks, this paper explores their potential to denoise ambiguous labels through the reverse denoising process. Therefore, this paper reformulates the label disambiguation problem from the perspective of generative models, where labels are generated by iteratively refining initial random guesses. This perspective enables the diffusion model to learn how label information is generated stochastically. By modeling the generation uncertainty, we can use the maximum likelihood estimate of the label for classification inference. However, such ambiguous labels lead to a mismatch between instance and label, which reduces the quality of generated data. To address this issue, this paper proposes a \emph{diffusion disambiguation model for PLL} (DDMP), which first uses the potential complementary information between instances and labels to construct pseudo-clean labels for initial diffusion training. Furthermore, a transition-aware matrix is introduced to estimate the potential ground-truth labels, which are dynamically updated during the diffusion generation. During training, the ground-truth label is progressively refined, improving the classifier. Experiments show the advantage of the DDMP and its suitability for PLL.

With the growing demand for novel materials, machine learning-driven inverse design methods face significant challenges in reconciling the high-dimensional materials composition space with limited experimental data. Existing approaches suffer from two major limitations: (I) machine learning models often lack reliability in high-dimensional spaces, leading to prediction biases during the design process; (II) these models fail to effectively incorporate domain expert knowledge, limiting their capacity to support knowledge-guided inverse design. To address these challenges, we introduce AIMatDesign, a reinforcement learning framework that addresses these limitations by augmenting experimental data using difference-based algorithms to build a trusted experience pool, accelerating model convergence. To enhance model reliability, an automated refinement strategy guided by large language models (LLMs) dynamically corrects prediction inconsistencies, reinforcing alignment between reward signals and state value functions. Additionally, a knowledge-based reward function leverages expert domain rules to improve stability and efficiency during training. Our experiments demonstrate that AIMatDesign significantly surpasses traditional machine learning and reinforcement learning methods in discovery efficiency, convergence speed, and success rates. Among the numerous candidates proposed by AIMatDesign, experimental synthesis of representative Zr-based alloys yielded a top-performing BMG with 1.7GPa yield strength and 10.2\% elongation, closely matching predictions. Moreover, the framework accurately captured the trend of yield strength variation with composition, demonstrating its reliability and potential for closed-loop materials discovery.

Bayesian decision theory advocates the Bayes classifier as the optimal approach for minimizing the risk in machine learning problems. Current deep learning algorithms usually solve for the optimal classifier by \emph{implicitly} estimating the posterior probabilities, \emph{e.g.}, by minimizing the Softmax cross-entropy loss. This simple methodology has been proven effective for meticulously balanced academic benchmark datasets. However, it is not applicable to the long-tailed data distributions in the real world, where it leads to the gradient imbalance issue and fails to ensure the Bayes optimal decision rule. To address these challenges, this paper presents a novel approach (BAPE) that provides a more precise theoretical estimation of the data distributions by \emph{explicitly} modeling the parameters of the posterior probabilities and solving them with point estimation. Consequently, our method directly learns the Bayes classifier without gradient descent based on Bayes' theorem, simultaneously alleviating the gradient imbalance and ensuring the Bayes optimal decision rule. Furthermore, we propose a straightforward yet effective \emph{distribution adjustment} technique. This method enables the Bayes classifier trained from the long-tailed training set to effectively adapt to the test data distribution with an arbitrary imbalance factor, thereby enhancing performance without incurring additional computational costs. In addition, we demonstrate the gains of our method are orthogonal to existing learning approaches for long-tailed scenarios, as they are mostly designed under the principle of \emph{implicitly} estimating the posterior probabilities. Extensive empirical evaluations on CIFAR-10-LT, CIFAR-100-LT, ImageNet-LT, and iNaturalist demonstrate that our method significantly improves the generalization performance of popular deep networks, despite its simplicity.