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 Learning Graphical Models


(Exhaustive) Symbolic Regression and model selection by minimum description length

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Symbolic regression is the machine learning method for learning functions from data. After a brief overview of the symbolic regression landscape, I will describe the two main challenges that traditional algorithms face: they have an unknown (and likely significant) probability of failing to find any given good function, and they suffer from ambiguity and poorly-justified assumptions in their function-selection procedure. To address these I propose an exhaustive search and model selection by the minimum description length principle, which allows accuracy and complexity to be directly traded off by measuring each in units of information. I showcase the resulting publicly available Exhaustive Symbolic Regression algorithm on three open problems in astrophysics: the expansion history of the universe, the effective behaviour of gravity in galaxies and the potential of the inflaton field. In each case the algorithm identifies many functions superior to the literature standards. This general purpose methodology should find widespread utility in science and beyond.


A Translation of Probabilistic Event Calculus into Markov Decision Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Probabilistic Event Calculus (PEC) is a logical framework for reasoning about actions and their effects in uncertain environments, which enables the representation of probabilistic narratives and computation of temporal projections. The PEC formalism offers significant advantages in interpretability and expressiveness for narrative reasoning. However, it lacks mechanisms for goal-directed reasoning. This paper bridges this gap by developing a formal translation of PEC domains into Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), introducing the concept of "action-taking situations" to preserve PEC's flexible action semantics. The resulting PEC-MDP formalism enables the extensive collection of algorithms and theoretical tools developed for MDPs to be applied to PEC's interpretable narrative domains. We demonstrate how the translation supports both temporal reasoning tasks and objective-driven planning, with methods for mapping learned policies back into human-readable PEC representations, maintaining interpretability while extending PEC's capabilities.


MC$^2$A: Enabling Algorithm-Hardware Co-Design for Efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo Acceleration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

An increasing number of applications are exploiting sampling-based algorithms for planning, optimization, and inference. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms form the computational backbone of this emerging branch of machine learning. Unfortunately, the high computational cost limits their feasibility for large-scale problems and real-world applications, and the existing MCMC acceleration solutions are either limited in hardware flexibility or fail to maintain efficiency at the system level across a variety of end-to-end applications. This paper introduces \textbf{MC$^2$A}, an algorithm-hardware co-design framework, enabling efficient and flexible optimization for MCMC acceleration. Firstly, \textbf{MC$^2$A} analyzes the MCMC workload diversity through an extension of the processor performance roofline model with a 3rd dimension to derive the optimal balance between the compute, sampling and memory parameters. Secondly, \textbf{MC$^2$A} proposes a parametrized hardware accelerator architecture with flexible and efficient support of MCMC kernels with a pipeline of ISA-programmable tree-structured processing units, reconfigurable samplers and a crossbar interconnect to support irregular access. Thirdly, the core of \textbf{MC$^2$A} is powered by a novel Gumbel sampler that eliminates exponential and normalization operations. In the end-to-end case study, \textbf{MC$^2$A} achieves an overall {$307.6\times$, $1.4\times$, $2.0\times$, $84.2\times$} speedup compared to the CPU, GPU, TPU and state-of-the-art MCMC accelerator. Evaluated on various representative MCMC workloads, this work demonstrates and exploits the feasibility of general hardware acceleration to popularize MCMC-based solutions in diverse application domains.


Data Transformation Strategies to Remove Heterogeneity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data heterogeneity is a prevalent issue, stemming from various conflicting factors, making its utilization complex. This uncertainty, particularly resulting from disparities in data formats, frequently necessitates the involvement of experts to find resolutions. Current methodologies primarily address conflicts related to data structures and schemas, often overlooking the pivotal role played by data transformation. As the utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) continues to expand, there is a growing demand for a more streamlined data preparation process, and data transformation becomes paramount. It customizes training data to enhance AI learning efficiency and adapts input formats to suit diverse AI models. Selecting an appropriate transformation technique is paramount in preserving crucial data details. Despite the widespread integration of AI across various industries, comprehensive reviews concerning contemporary data transformation approaches are scarce. This survey explores the intricacies of data heterogeneity and its underlying sources. It systematically categorizes and presents strategies to address heterogeneity stemming from differences in data formats, shedding light on the inherent challenges associated with each strategy.


A Survey of Explainable Reinforcement Learning: Targets, Methods and Needs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The success of recent Artificial Intelligence (AI) models has been accompanied by the opacity of their internal mechanisms, due notably to the use of deep neural networks. In order to understand these internal mechanisms and explain the output of these AI models, a set of methods have been proposed, grouped under the domain of eXplainable AI (XAI). This paper focuses on a sub-domain of XAI, called eXplainable Reinforcement Learning (XRL), which aims to explain the actions of an agent that has learned by reinforcement learning. We propose an intuitive taxonomy based on two questions "What" and "How". The first question focuses on the target that the method explains, while the second relates to the way the explanation is provided. We use this taxonomy to provide a state-of-the-art review of over 250 papers. In addition, we present a set of domains close to XRL, which we believe should get attention from the community. Finally, we identify some needs for the field of XRL.


Boosting Team Modeling through Tempo-Relational Representation Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Team modeling remains a fundamental challenge at the intersection of Artificial Intelligence and the Social Sciences. Social Science research emphasizes the need to jointly model dynamics and relations, while practical applications demand unified models capable of inferring multiple team constructs simultaneously, providing interpretable insights and actionable recommendations to enhance team performance. However, existing works do not meet these practical demands. To bridge this gap, we present TRENN, a novel tempo-relational architecture that integrates: (i) an automatic temporal graph extractor, (ii) a tempo-relational encoder, (iii) a decoder for team construct prediction, and (iv) two complementary explainability modules. TRENN jointly captures relational and temporal team dynamics, providing a solid foundation for MT-TRENN, which extends TReNN by replacing the decoder with a multi-task head, enabling the model to learn shared Social Embeddings and simultaneously predict multiple team constructs, including Emergent Leadership, Leadership Style, and Teamwork components. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms approaches that rely exclusively on temporal or relational information. Additionally, experimental evaluation has shown that the explainability modules integrated in MT-TRENN yield interpretable insights and actionable suggestions to support team improvement. These capabilities make our approach particularly well-suited for Human-Centered AI applications, such as intelligent decision-support systems in high-stakes collaborative environments.


Robust Explanations Through Uncertainty Decomposition: A Path to Trustworthier AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in machine learning have emphasized the need for transparency in model predictions, particularly as interpretability diminishes when using increasingly complex architectures. In this paper, we propose leveraging prediction uncertainty as a complementary approach to classical explainability methods. Specifically, we distinguish between aleatoric (data-related) and epistemic (model-related) uncertainty to guide the selection of appropriate explanations. Epistemic uncertainty serves as a rejection criterion for unreliable explanations and, in itself, provides insight into insufficient training (a new form of explanation). Aleatoric uncertainty informs the choice between feature-importance explanations and counterfactual explanations. This leverages a framework of explainability methods driven by uncertainty quantification and disentanglement. Our experiments demonstrate the impact of this uncertainty-aware approach on the robustness and attainability of explanations in both traditional machine learning and deep learning scenarios.


LLMs are Bayesian, in Expectation, not in Realization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Large language models demonstrate remarkable in-context learning capabilities, adapting to new tasks without parameter updates. While this phenomenon has been successfully modeled as implicit Bayesian inference, recent empirical findings reveal a fundamental contradiction: transformers systematically violate the martingale property, a cornerstone requirement of Bayesian updating on exchangeable data. This violation challenges the theoretical foundations underlying uncertainty quantification in critical applications. Our theoretical analysis establishes four key results: (1) positional encodings induce martingale violations of order $Θ(\log n / n)$; (2) transformers achieve information-theoretic optimality with excess risk $O(n^{-1/2})$ in expectation over orderings; (3) the implicit posterior representation converges to the true Bayesian posterior in the space of sufficient statistics; and (4) we derive the optimal chain-of-thought length as $k^* = Θ(\sqrt{n}\log(1/\varepsilon))$ with explicit constants, providing a principled approach to reduce inference costs while maintaining performance. Empirical validation on GPT-3 confirms predictions (1)-(3), with transformers reaching 99\% of theoretical entropy limits within 20 examples. Our framework provides practical methods for extracting calibrated uncertainty estimates from position-aware architectures and optimizing computational efficiency in deployment.


Generalized Linear Bandits: Almost Optimal Regret with One-Pass Update

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the generalized linear bandit (GLB) problem, a contextual multi-armed bandit framework that extends the classical linear model by incorporating a non-linear link function, thereby modeling a broad class of reward distributions such as Bernoulli and Poisson. While GLBs are widely applicable to real-world scenarios, their non-linear nature introduces significant challenges in achieving both computational and statistical efficiency. Existing methods typically trade off between two objectives, either incurring high per-round costs for optimal regret guarantees or compromising statistical efficiency to enable constant-time updates. In this paper, we propose a jointly efficient algorithm that attains a nearly optimal regret bound with $\mathcal{O}(1)$ time and space complexities per round. The core of our method is a tight confidence set for the online mirror descent (OMD) estimator, which is derived through a novel analysis that leverages the notion of mix loss from online prediction. The analysis shows that our OMD estimator, even with its one-pass updates, achieves statistical efficiency comparable to maximum likelihood estimation, thereby leading to a jointly efficient optimistic method.


From Observational Data to Clinical Recommendations: A Causal Framework for Estimating Patient-level Treatment Effects and Learning Policies

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a framework for building patient-specific treatment recommendation models, building on the large recent literature on learning patient-level causal models and inspired by the target trial paradigm of Hernan and Robins. We focus on safety and validity, including the crucial issue of causal identification when using observational data. We do not provide a specific model, but rather a way to integrate existing methods and know-how into a practical pipeline. We further provide a real world use-case of treatment optimization for patients with heart failure who develop acute kidney injury during hospitalization. The results suggest our pipeline can improve patient outcomes over the current treatment regime.