Learning Graphical Models
Recent Advances in Simulation-based Inference for Gravitational Wave Data Analysis
The detection of gravitational waves by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration has ushered in a new era of observational astronomy, emphasizing the need for rapid and detailed parameter estimation and population-level analyses. Traditional Bayesian inference methods, particularly Markov chain Monte Carlo, face significant computational challenges when dealing with the high-dimensional parameter spaces and complex noise characteristics inherent in gravitational wave data. This review examines the emerging role of simulation-based inference methods in gravitational wave astronomy, with a focus on approaches that leverage machine-learning techniques such as normalizing flows and neural posterior estimation. We provide a comprehensive overview of the theoretical foundations underlying various simulation-based inference methods, including neural posterior estimation, neural ratio estimation, neural likelihood estimation, flow matching, and consistency models. We explore the applications of these methods across diverse gravitational wave data processing scenarios, from single-source parameter estimation and overlapping signal analysis to testing general relativity and conducting population studies. Although these techniques demonstrate speed improvements over traditional methods in controlled studies, their model-dependent nature and sensitivity to prior assumptions are barriers to their widespread adoption. Their accuracy, which is similar to that of conventional methods, requires further validation across broader parameter spaces and noise conditions.
Accelerating Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian Inference in Neural Networks and Neural Operators
Thiagarajan, Ponkrshnan, Zaki, Tamer A., Shields, Michael D.
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful and accurate method to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, HMC techniques are computationally demanding for Bayesian neural networks due to the high dimensionality of the network's parameter space and the non-convexity of their posterior distributions. Therefore, various approximation techniques, such as variational inference (VI) or stochastic gradient MCMC, are often employed to infer the posterior distribution of the network parameters. Such approximations introduce inaccuracies in the inferred distributions, resulting in unreliable uncertainty estimates. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach that combines inexpensive VI and accurate HMC methods to efficiently and accurately quantify uncertainties in neural networks and neural operators. The proposed approach leverages an initial VI training on the full network. We examine the influence of individual parameters on the prediction uncertainty, which shows that a large proportion of the parameters do not contribute substantially to uncertainty in the network predictions. This information is then used to significantly reduce the dimension of the parameter space, and HMC is performed only for the subset of network parameters that strongly influence prediction uncertainties. This yields a framework for accelerating the full batch HMC for posterior inference in neural networks. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed framework on deep neural networks and operator networks, showing that inference can be performed for large networks with tens to hundreds of thousands of parameters. We show that this method can effectively learn surrogates for complex physical systems by modeling the operator that maps from upstream conditions to wall-pressure data on a cone in hypersonic flow.
Better Models and Algorithms for Learning Ising Models from Dynamics
Gaitonde, Jason, Moitra, Ankur, Mossel, Elchanan
We study the problem of learning the structure and parameters of the Ising model, a fundamental model of high-dimensional data, when observing the evolution of an associated Markov chain. A recent line of work has studied the natural problem of learning when observing an evolution of the well-known Glauber dynamics [Bresler, Gamarnik, Shah, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 2018, Gaitonde, Mossel STOC 2024], which provides an arguably more realistic generative model than the classical i.i.d. setting. However, this prior work crucially assumes that all site update attempts are observed, \emph{even when this attempt does not change the configuration}: this strong observation model is seemingly essential for these approaches. While perhaps possible in restrictive contexts, this precludes applicability to most realistic settings where we can observe \emph{only} the stochastic evolution itself, a minimal and natural assumption for any process we might hope to learn from. However, designing algorithms that succeed in this more realistic setting has remained an open problem [Bresler, Gamarnik, Shah, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 2018, Gaitonde, Moitra, Mossel, STOC 2025]. In this work, we give the first algorithms that efficiently learn the Ising model in this much more natural observation model that only observes when the configuration changes. For Ising models with maximum degree $d$, our algorithm recovers the underlying dependency graph in time $\mathsf{poly}(d)\cdot n^2\log n$ and then the actual parameters in additional $\widetilde{O}(2^d n)$ time, which qualitatively matches the state-of-the-art even in the i.i.d. setting in a much weaker observation model. Our analysis holds more generally for a broader class of reversible, single-site Markov chains that also includes the popular Metropolis chain by leveraging more robust properties of reversible Markov chains.
Compositional Understanding in Signaling Games
Even when the signalers send compositional messages, the receivers do not interpret them compositionally. When information from one message component is lost or forgotten, the information from other components is also erased. In this paper I construct signaling game models in which genuine compositional understanding evolves. I present two new models: a minimalist receiver who only learns from the atomic messages of a signal, and a generalist receiver who learns from all of the available information. These models are in many ways simpler than previous alternatives, and allow the receivers to learn from the atomic components of messages.
CLEVER: Stream-based Active Learning for Robust Semantic Perception from Human Instructions
Lee, Jongseok, Birr, Timo, Triebel, Rudolph, Asfour, Tamim
We propose CLEVER, an active learning system for robust semantic perception with Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). For data arriving in streams, our system seeks human support when encountering failures and adapts DNNs online based on human instructions. In this way, CLEVER can eventually accomplish the given semantic perception tasks. Our main contribution is the design of a system that meets several desiderata of realizing the aforementioned capabilities. The key enabler herein is our Bayesian formulation that encodes domain knowledge through priors. Empirically, we not only motivate CLEVER's design but further demonstrate its capabilities with a user validation study as well as experiments on humanoid and deformable objects. To our knowledge, we are the first to realize stream-based active learning on a real robot, providing evidence that the robustness of the DNN-based semantic perception can be improved in practice. The project website can be accessed at https://sites.google.com/view/thecleversystem.
Robots for Kiwifruit Harvesting and Pollination
This research was a part of a project that developed mobile robots that performed targeted pollen spraying and automated harvesting in pergola structured kiwifruit orchards. Multiple kiwifruit detachment mechanisms were designed and field testing of one of the concepts showed that the mechanism could reliably pick kiwifruit. Furthermore, this kiwifruit detachment mechanism was able to reach over 80 percent of fruit in the cluttered kiwifruit canopy, whereas the previous state of the art mechanism was only able to reach less than 70 percent of the fruit. Artificial pollination was performed by detecting flowers and then spraying pollen in solution onto the detected flowers from a line of sprayers on a boom, while driving at up to 1.4 ms-1. In addition, the height of the canopy was measured and the spray boom was moved up and down to keep the boom close enough to the flowers for the spray to reach the flowers, while minimising collisions with the canopy. Mobile robot navigation was performed using a 2D lidar in apple orchards and vineyards. Lidar navigation in kiwifruit orchards was more challenging because the pergola structure only provides a small amount of data for the direction of rows, compared to the amount of data from the overhead canopy, the undulating ground and other objects in the orchards. Multiple methods are presented here for extracting structure defining features from 3D lidar data in kiwifruit orchards. In addition, a 3D lidar navigation system -- which performed row following, row end detection and row end turns -- was tested for over 30 km of autonomous driving in kiwifruit orchards. Computer vision algorithms for row detection and row following were also tested. The computer vision algorithm worked as well as the 3D lidar row following method in testing.
An Adaptive Random Fourier Features approach Applied to Learning Stochastic Differential Equations
Douglas, Owen, Kammonen, Aku, Pandey, Anamika, Tempone, Raúl
The efficient identification of dynamical systems from data is a fundamental challenge in many scientific and engineering domains. Classical parameter estimation techniques for stochastic differential equations (SDEs) - including maximum likelihood estimation, the method of moments, and Bayesian inference [15], [21], have widespread applications in physics [19], [23], finance [1], [8] and biology [20]. Despite their utility, these methods impose strong model assumptions, demand substantial analytical effort, and often become computationally intractable for complex or high-dimensional systems. Recent advances in machine learning have offer new options for data-driven modelling of dynamical systems [17]. Deep learning frameworks, such as residual networks, neural ordinary differential equations [3], and neural partial differential equations (PDEs) [14, 18], demonstrate significant promise in approximating complex dynamical systems.
Joint-Local Grounded Action Transformation for Sim-to-Real Transfer in Multi-Agent Traffic Control
Turnau, Justin, Da, Longchao, Vo, Khoa, Rafi, Ferdous Al, Bachiraju, Shreyas, Chen, Tiejin, Wei, Hua
Traffic Signal Control (TSC) is essential for managing urban traffic flow and reducing congestion. Reinforcement Learning (RL) offers an adaptive method for TSC by responding to dynamic traffic patterns, with multi-agent RL (MARL) gaining traction as intersections naturally function as coordinated agents. However, due to shifts in environmental dynamics, implementing MARL-based TSC policies in the real world often leads to a significant performance drop, known as the sim-to-real gap. Grounded Action Transformation (GAT) has successfully mitigated this gap in single-agent RL for TSC, but real-world traffic networks, which involve numerous interacting intersections, are better suited to a MARL framework. In this work, we introduce JL-GAT, an application of GAT to MARL-based TSC that balances scalability with enhanced grounding capability by incorporating information from neighboring agents. JL-GAT adopts a decentralized approach to GAT, allowing for the scalability often required in real-world traffic networks while still capturing key interactions between agents. Comprehensive experiments on various road networks under simulated adverse weather conditions, along with ablation studies, demonstrate the effectiveness of JL-GAT. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/DaRL-LibSignal/JL-GAT/.
Search-Based Autonomous Vehicle Motion Planning Using Game Theory
Panahandeh, Pouya, Pirani, Mohammad, Fidan, Baris, Khajepour, Amir
--In this paper, we propose a search-based interactive motion planning scheme for autonomous vehicles (A Vs), using a game-theoretic approach. In contrast to traditional search-based approaches, the newly developed approach considers other road users (e.g. This leads to the generation of a more realistic path for the A V . Due to the low computational time, the proposed motion planning scheme is implementable in real-time applications. The performance of the developed motion planning scheme is compared with existing motion planning techniques and validated through experiments using W A T onoBus, an electrical all-weather autonomous shuttle bus. NTELLIGENT vehicles have increased their capabilities for highly automated driving under controlled environments i.e., driving scenarios that are designed to be predictable, stable, and safe for autonomous vehicles (A Vs) to operate in [1], [2]. Scene information is received using onboard sensors and communication network systems, i.e., infrastructure and other vehicles. Considering the available information, different motion planning and control techniques have been developed for autonomously driving in complex environments. The main goal is focused on executing strategies to improve safety, comfort, and energy optimization. One of the essential conditions for A V safety is ensuring safe interactions with other road users, including human-driven vehicles as well as pedestrians.
Old Rules in a New Game: Mapping Uncertainty Quantification to Quantum Machine Learning
Wendlinger, Maximilian, Tscharke, Kilian, Debus, Pascal
One of the key obstacles in traditional deep learning is the reduction in model transparency caused by increasingly intricate model functions, which can lead to problems such as overfitting and excessive confidence in predictions. With the advent of quantum machine learning offering possible advances in computational power and latent space complexity, we notice the same opaque behavior. Despite significant research in classical contexts, there has been little advancement in addressing the black-box nature of quantum machine learning. Consequently, we approach this gap by building upon existing work in classical uncertainty quantification and initial explorations in quantum Bayesian modeling to theoretically develop and empirically evaluate techniques to map classical uncertainty quantification methods to the quantum machine learning domain. Our findings emphasize the necessity of leveraging classical insights into uncertainty quantification to include uncertainty awareness in the process of designing new quantum machine learning models.