This study evaluated the probability and uncertainty forecasts of five recently proposed Bayesian deep learning methods relative to a deterministic residual neural network (ResNet) baseline for 0-1 h convective initiation (CI) nowcasting using GOES-16 satellite infrared observations. Uncertainty was assessed by how well probabilistic forecasts were calibrated and how well uncertainty separated forecasts with large and small errors. Most of the Bayesian deep learning methods produced probabilistic forecasts that outperformed the deterministic ResNet, with one, the initial-weights ensemble + Monte Carlo (MC) dropout, an ensemble of deterministic ResNets with different initial weights to start training and dropout activated during inference, producing the most skillful and well-calibrated forecasts. The initial-weights ensemble + MC dropout benefited from generating multiple solutions that more thoroughly sampled the hypothesis space. The Bayesian ResNet ensemble was the only one that performed worse than the deterministic ResNet at longer lead times, likely due to the challenge of optimizing a larger number of parameters. To address this issue, the Bayesian-MOPED (MOdel Priors with Empirical Bayes using Deep neural network) ResNet ensemble was adopted, and it enhanced forecast skill by constraining the hypothesis search near the deterministic ResNet hypothesis. All Bayesian methods demonstrated well-calibrated uncertainty and effectively separated cases with large and small errors. In case studies, the initial-weights ensemble + MC dropout demonstrated better forecast skill than the Bayesian-MOPED ensemble and the deterministic ResNet on selected CI events in clear-sky regions. However, the initial-weights ensemble + MC dropout exhibited poorer generalization in clear-sky and anvil cloud regions without CI occurrence compared to the deterministic ResNet and Bayesian-MOPED ensemble.

A common approach for handling missing values in data analysis pipelines is multiple imputation via software packages such as MICE (Van Buuren and Groothuis-Oudshoorn, 2011) and Amelia (Honaker et al., 2011). These packages typically assume the data are missing at random (MAR), and impose parametric or smoothing assumptions upon the imputing distributions in a way that allows imputation to proceed even if not all missingness patterns have support in the data. Such assumptions are unrealistic in practice, and induce model misspecification bias on any analysis performed after such imputation. In this paper, we provide a principled alternative. Specifically, we develop a new characterization for the full data law in graphical models of missing data. This characterization is constructive, is easily adapted for the calculation of imputation distributions for both MAR and MNAR (missing not at random) mechanisms, and is able to handle lack of support for certain patterns of missingness. We use this characterization to develop a new imputation algorithm -- Multivariate Imputation via Supported Pattern Recursion (MISPR) -- which uses Gibbs sampling, by analogy with the Multivariate Imputation with Chained Equations (MICE) algorithm, but which is consistent under both MAR and MNAR settings, and is able to handle missing data patterns with no support without imposing additional assumptions beyond those already imposed by the missing data model itself. In simulations, we show MISPR obtains comparable results to MICE when data are MAR, and superior, less biased results when data are MNAR. Our characterization and imputation algorithm based on it are a step towards making principled missing data methods more practical in applied settings, where the data are likely both MNAR and sufficiently high dimensional to yield missing data patterns with no support at available sample sizes.

Calibrating the confidence of neural network classifiers is essential for quantifying the reliability of their predictions during inference. However, conventional Gaussian Process (GP) calibration methods often fail to capture the internal hierarchical structure of deep neural networks, limiting both interpretability and effectiveness for assessing predictive reliability. We propose a Semantic-Aware Layer-wise Gaussian Process (SAL-GP) framework that mirrors the layered architecture of the target neural network. Instead of applying a single global GP correction, SAL-GP employs a multi-layer GP model, where each layer's feature representation is mapped to a local calibration correction. These layerwise GPs are coupled through a structured multi-layer kernel, enabling joint marginalization across all layers. This design allows SAL-GP to capture both local semantic dependencies and global calibration coherence, while consistently propagating predictive uncertainty through the network. The resulting framework enhances interpretability aligned with the network architecture and enables principled evaluation of confidence consistency and uncertainty quantification in deep models.

Reinforcement Learning is a machine learning methodology that has demonstrated strong performance across a variety of tasks. In particular, it plays a central role in the development of artificial autonomous agents. As these agents become increasingly capable, market readiness is rapidly approaching, which means those agents, for example taking the form of humanoid robots or autonomous cars, are poised to transition from laboratory prototypes to autonomous operation in real-world environments. This transition raises concerns leading to specific requirements for these systems - among them, the requirement that they are designed to behave ethically. Crucially, research directed toward building agents that fulfill the requirement to behave ethically - referred to as artificial moral agents(AMAs) - has to address a range of challenges at the intersection of computer science and philosophy. This study explores the development of reason-based artificial moral agents (RBAMAs). RBAMAs are build on an extension of the reinforcement learning architecture to enable moral decision-making based on sound normative reasoning, which is achieved by equipping the agent with the capacity to learn a reason-theory - a theory which enables it to process morally relevant propositions to derive moral obligations - through case-based feedback. They are designed such that they adapt their behavior to ensure conformance to these obligations while they pursue their designated tasks. These features contribute to the moral justifiability of the their actions, their moral robustness, and their moral trustworthiness, which proposes the extended architecture as a concrete and deployable framework for the development of AMAs that fulfills key ethical desiderata. This study presents a first implementation of an RBAMA and demonstrates the potential of RBAMAs in initial experiments.

Commodity Trading Advisors (CT As) have historically relied on trend-following rules that operate on vastly different horizons--from long-term breakouts that capture major directional moves to short-term momentum signals that thrive in fast-moving markets. Despite a large body of work on trend following, the relative merits and interactions of short-versus long-term trend systems remain controversial. This paper adds to the debate by (i) dynamically decomposing CT A returns into short-term trend, long-term trend and market beta factors using a Bayesian graphical model, and (ii) showing how the blend of horizons shapes the strategy's risk-adjusted performance.

Despite the transformative potential of AI, the concept of neural networks that can produce other neural networks by generating model weights (hypernetworks) has been largely understudied. One of the possible reasons is the lack of available research resources that can be used for the purpose of hypernetwork research. Here we describe a dataset of neural networks, designed for the purpose of hypernetworks research. The dataset includes $10^4$ LeNet-5 neural networks trained for binary image classification separated into 10 classes, such that each class contains 1,000 different neural networks that can identify a certain ImageNette V2 class from all other classes. A computing cluster of over $10^4$ cores was used to generate the dataset. Basic classification results show that the neural networks can be classified with accuracy of 72.0%, indicating that the differences between the neural networks can be identified by supervised machine learning algorithms. The ultimate purpose of the dataset is to enable hypernetworks research. The dataset and the code that generates it are open and accessible to the public.

This paper addresses the critical need for high-quality evaluation datasets in low-resource languages to advance cross-lingual transfer. While cross-lingual transfer offers a key strategy for leveraging multilingual pretraining to expand language technologies to understudied and typologically diverse languages, its effectiveness is dependent on quality and suitable benchmarks. We release new sense-annotated datasets of sentences containing polysemous words, spanning ten low-resource languages across diverse language families and scripts. To facilitate dataset creation, the paper presents a demonstrably beneficial semi-automatic annotation method. The utility of the datasets is demonstrated through Word-in-Context (WiC) formatted experiments that evaluate transfer on these low-resource languages. Results highlight the importance of targeted dataset creation and evaluation for effective polysemy disambiguation in low-resource settings and transfer studies. The released datasets and code aim to support further research into fair, robust, and truly multilingual NLP.

Humans flexibly construct internal models to navigate novel situations. To be useful, these internal models must be sufficiently faithful to the environment that resource-limited planning leads to adequate outcomes; equally, they must be tractable to construct in the first place. We argue that analogy plays a central role in these processes, enabling agents to reuse solution-relevant structure from past experiences and amortise the computational costs of both model construction (construal) and planning. Formalis-ing analogies as partial homomorphisms between Markov decision processes, we sketch a framework in which abstract modules, derived from previous construals, serve as com-posable building blocks for new ones. This modular reuse allows for flexible adaptation of policies and representations across domains with shared structural essence.

Quantum sensing harnesses the unique properties of quantum systems to enable precision measurements of physical quantities such as time, magnetic and electric fields, acceleration, and gravitational gradients well beyond the limits of classical sensors. However, identifying suitable sensing probes and measurement schemes can be a classically intractable task, as it requires optimizing over Hilbert spaces of high dimension. In variational quantum sensing, a probe quantum system is generated via a parameterized quantum circuit (PQC), exposed to an unknown physical parameter through a quantum channel, and measured to collect classical data. PQCs and measurements are typically optimized using offline strategies based on frequentist learning criteria. This paper introduces an adaptive protocol that uses Bayesian inference to optimize the sensing policy via the maximization of the active information gain. The proposed variational methodology is tailored for non-asymptotic regimes where a single probe can be deployed in each time step, and is extended to support the fusion of estimates from multiple quantum sensing agents.

Human intelligence exhibits a remarkable capacity for rapid adaptation and effective problem-solving in novel and unfamiliar contexts. We argue that this profound adaptability is fundamentally linked to the efficient construction and refinement of internal representations of the environment, commonly referred to as world models, and we refer to this adaptation mechanism as world model induction . However, current understanding and evaluation of world models in artificial intelligence (AI) remains narrow, often focusing on static representations learned from training on massive corpora of data, instead of the efficiency and efficacy in learning these representations through interaction and exploration within a novel environment. In this Perspective, we provide a view of world model induction drawing on decades of research in cognitive science on how humans learn and adapt so efficiently; we then call for a new evaluation framework for assessing adaptive world models in AI. Concretely, we propose a new benchmarking paradigm based on suites of carefully designed games with genuine, deep and continually refreshing novelty in the underlying game structures -- we refer to this class of games as novel games . We detail key desiderata for constructing these games and propose appropriate metrics to explicitly challenge and evaluate the agent's ability for rapid world model induction. We hope that this new evaluation framework will inspire future evaluation efforts on world models in AI and provide a crucial step towards developing AI systems capable of human-like rapid adaptation and robust generalization -- a critical component of artificial general intelligence.