We propose the Recurrent Explicit Duration Switching Dynamical System (RED-SDS), a flexible model that is capable of identifying both state-and time-dependent switching dynamics.

We propose the Recurrent Explicit Duration Switching Dynamical System (RED-SDS), a flexible model that is capable of identifying both state-and time-dependent switching dynamics.

Our main contribution is a generic framework, called Social-Inverse, for handling migrations between tasks of diffusion enhancement and diffusion containment. For Social-Inverse, we present theoretical analysis to obtain insights regarding how different contagion management tasks can be subtly correlated in order for samples from one task to help the optimization of another task.

Determining the optimal data mixture for large language model training remains a challenging problem with an outsized impact on performance. In practice, language model developers continue to rely on heuristic exploration since no learning-based approach has emerged as a reliable solution. In this work, we propose to view the selection of training data mixtures as a black-box hyperparameter optimization problem, for which Bayesian Optimization is a well-established class of appropriate algorithms. Firstly, we cast data mixture learning as a sequential decision-making problem, in which we aim to find a suitable trade-off between the computational cost of training exploratory (proxy-) models and final mixture performance. Secondly, we systematically explore the properties of transferring mixtures learned at a small scale to larger-scale experiments, providing insights and highlighting opportunities for research at a modest scale. By proposing Multi-fidelity Bayesian Optimization as a suitable method in this common scenario, we introduce a natural framework to balance experiment cost with model fit, avoiding the risks of overfitting to smaller scales while minimizing the number of experiments at high cost. We present results for pre-training and instruction finetuning across models ranging from 1 million to 7 billion parameters, varying from simple architectures to state-of-the-art models and benchmarks spanning dozens of datasets. We demonstrate consistently strong results relative to a wide range of baselines, resulting inspeed-ups of over 500% in determining the best data mixture on our largest experiments. In addition, we broaden access to research by sharing ADMIRE IFT Runs, a dataset of 460 full training & evaluation runs worth over 13,000 GPU hours, greatly reducing the cost of conducting research in this area.

Multivariate Hawkes process provides a powerful framework for modeling temporal dependencies and event-driven interactions in complex systems. While existing methods primarily focus on uncovering causal structures among observed subprocesses, real-world systems are often only partially observed, with latent subprocesses posing significant challenges. In this paper, we show that continuous-time event sequences can be represented by a discrete-time model as the time interval shrinks, and we leverage this insight to establish necessary and sufficient conditions for identifying latent subprocesses and the causal influences. Accordingly, we propose a two-phase iterative algorithm that alternates between inferring causal relationships among discovered subprocesses and uncovering new latent subprocesses, guided by path-based conditions that guarantee identifiability. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that our method effectively recovers causal structures despite the presence of latent subprocesses.

Improved computational power has enabled different disciplines to predict causal relationships among modeled variables using Bayesian network inference. While many alternative algorithms have been proposed to improve the efficiency and reliability of network prediction, the predicted causal networks reflect the generative process but also bear an opaque imprint of the specific computational algorithm used. Following a ``wisdom of the crowds" strategy, we developed an ensemble learning approach to marginalize the impact of a single algorithm on Bayesian causal network inference. To introduce the approach, we first present the theoretical foundation of this framework. Next, we present a comprehensive implementation of the framework in terms of a new software tool called BaMANI (Bayesian Multi-Algorithm causal Network Inference). Finally, we describe a BaMANI use-case from biology, particularly within human breast cancer studies.