We introduce a comprehensive framework for the detection and demodulation of covert electromagnetic signals using solid-state spin sensors. Our approach, named RAPID, is a two-stage hybrid strategy that leverages nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers to operate below the classical noise floor employing a robust adaptive policy via imitation and distillation. We first formulate the joint detection and estimation task as a unified stochastic optimal control problem, optimizing a composite Bayesian risk objective under realistic physical constraints. The RAPID algorithm solves this by first computing a robust, non-adaptive baseline protocol grounded in the quantum Fisher information matrix (QFIM), and then using this baseline to warm-start an online, adaptive policy learned via deep reinforcement learning (Soft Actor-Critic). This method dynamically optimizes control pulses, interrogation times, and measurement bases to maximize information gain while actively suppressing non-Markovian noise and decoherence. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the protocol achieves a significant sensitivity gain over static methods, maintains high estimation precision in correlated noise environments, and, when applied to sensor arrays, enables coherent quantum beamforming that achieves Heisenberg-like scaling in precision. This work establishes a theoretically rigorous and practically viable pathway for deploying quantum sensors in security-critical applications such as electronic warfare and covert surveillance.

We consider two-player zero-sum concurrent stochastic games (CSGs) played on graphs with reachability and safety objectives. These include degenerate classes such as Markov decision processes or turn-based stochastic games, which can be solved by linear or quadratic programming; however, in practice, value iteration (VI) outperforms the other approaches and is the most implemented method. Similarly, for CSGs, this practical performance makes VI an attractive alternative to the standard theoretical solution via the existential theory of reals. VI starts with an under-approximation of the sought values for each state and iteratively updates them, traditionally terminating once two consecutive approximations are $ε$-close. However, this stopping criterion lacks guarantees on the precision of the approximation, which is the goal of this work. We provide bounded (a.k.a. interval) VI for CSGs: it complements standard VI with a converging sequence of over-approximations and terminates once the over- and under-approximations are $ε$-close.

This paper presents a feature-based Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) framework for quantum network routing, combining belief-state planning with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to address partial observability, decoherence, and scalability challenges in dynamic quantum systems. Our approach encodes complex quantum network dynamics, including entanglement degradation and time-varying channel noise, into a low-dimensional feature space, enabling efficient belief updates and scalable policy learning. The core of our framework is a hybrid GNN-POMDP architecture that processes graph-structured representations of entangled links to learn routing policies, coupled with a noise-adaptive mechanism that fuses POMDP belief updates with GNN outputs for robust decision making. We provide a theoretical analysis establishing guarantees for belief convergence, policy improvement, and robustness to noise. Experiments on simulated quantum networks with up to 100 nodes demonstrate significant improvements in routing fidelity and entanglement delivery rates compared to state-of-the-art baselines, particularly under high decoherence and nonstationary conditions.

The increasing reliance on cyber physical infrastructure in modern power systems has amplified the risk of targeted cyber attacks, necessitating robust and adaptive resilience strategies. This paper presents a mathematically rigorous game theoretic framework to evaluate and enhance microgrid resilience using a combination of quantitative resilience metrics Load Served Ratio LSR, Critical Load Resilience CLR, Topological Survivability Score TSS, and DER Resilience Score DRS. These are integrated into a unified payoff matrix using the Analytic Hierarchy Process AHP to assess attack defense interactions. The framework is formalized as a finite horizon Markov Decision Process MDP with formal convergence guarantees and computational complexity bounds. Three case studies are developed 1. static attacks analyzed via Nash equilibrium, 2. severe attacks incorporating high impact strategies, and 3. adaptive attacks using Stackelberg games, regret matching, softmax heuristics, and Multi Agent Q Learning. Rigorous theoretical analysis provides convergence proofs with explicit rates , PAC learning sample complexity bounds, and computational complexity analysis. The framework is tested on an enhanced IEEE 33bus distribution system with DERs and control switches, demonstrating the effectiveness of adaptive and strategic defenses in improving cyber physical resilience with statistically significant improvements of 18.7% 2.1% over static approaches.

Transformers have exhibited exceptional capabilities in sequence modeling tasks, leveraging self-attention and in-context learning. Critical to this success are induction heads, attention circuits that enable copying tokens based on their previous occurrences. In this work, we introduce a novel framework that showcases transformers' ability to dynamically handle causal structures. Existing works rely on Markov Chains to study the formation of induction heads, revealing how transformers capture causal dependencies and learn transition probabilities in-context. However, they rely on a fixed causal structure that fails to capture the complexity of natural languages, where the relationship between tokens dynamically changes with context. To this end, our framework varies the causal structure through interleaved Markov chains with different lags while keeping the transition probabilities fixed. This setting unveils the formation of Selective Induction Heads, a new circuit that endows transformers with the ability to select the correct causal structure in-context. We empirically demonstrate that transformers learn this mechanism to predict the next token by identifying the correct lag and copying the corresponding token from the past. We provide a detailed construction of a 3-layer transformer to implement the selective induction head, and a theoretical analysis proving that this mechanism asymptotically converges to the maximum likelihood solution. Our findings advance the understanding of how transformers select causal structures, providing new insights into their functioning and interpretability.

Deep neural networks have transformed machine learning, excelling in tasks such as image classification and natural language processing through hierarchical feature learning [1]. However, traditional neurons, which compute deterministic weighted sums followed by nonlinear activations (e.g., ReLU, sigmoid), struggle to model uncertainty or multimodal distributions prevalent in real-world data. This limitation has historically been addressed by probabilistic graphical models, such as Bayesian Networks [2] and Markov Random Fields [3], which offer robust frameworks for uncertainty quantification and complex dependency modeling [4]. These models provide a strong conceptual foundation, but often lack the deep hierarchical feature learning capabilities of modern neural networks. A key research focus has therefore been on bridging the gap between these two paradigms. This has led to approaches that incorporate the probabilistic principles of graphical models directly into deep learning architectures. For example, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) embed uncertainty into network weights [5], while Probabilistic Circuits (PCs), including Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) [7, 8, 9], are deep probabilistic models that build on a formal probabilistic structure, fusing the representational power of graphical models with the hierarchical feature learning of neural networks. In contrast, this paper introduces a novel approach by embedding a univariate Gaussian Mixture Model (uGMM) directly into the network's computational units, enabling each neuron to represent 1

Sparse regression problems, where the goal is to identify a small set of relevant predictors, often require modeling not only main effects but also meaningful interactions through other variables. While the pliable lasso has emerged as a powerful frequentist tool for modeling such interactions under strong heredity constraints, it lacks a natural framework for uncertainty quantification and incorporation of prior knowledge. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian pliable lasso that extends this approach by placing sparsity-inducing priors, such as the horseshoe, on both main and interaction effects. The hierarchical prior structure enforces heredity constraints while adaptively shrinking irrelevant coefficients and allowing important effects to persist. We extend this framework to Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) and develop a tailored approach to handle missing responses. To facilitate posterior inference, we develop an efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm based on a reparameterization of the horseshoe prior. Our Bayesian framework yields sparse, interpretable interaction structures, and principled measures of uncertainty. Through simulations and real-data studies, we demonstrate its advantages over existing methods in recovering complex interaction patterns under both complete and incomplete data. Our method is implemented in the package \texttt{hspliable} available on Github.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety (WPNCS) proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. When comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that GLLS predictions fail to replicate computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA shows near agreement, and IUQ uses computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.

Causal relationships play a fundamental role in understanding the world around us. The ability to identify and understand cause-effect relationships is critical to making informed decisions, predicting outcomes, and developing effective strategies. However, deciphering causal relationships from observational data is a difficult task, as correlations alone may not provide definitive evidence of causality. In recent years, the field of machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool, offering new opportunities for uncovering hidden causal mechanisms and better understanding complex systems. In this work, we address the issue of detecting the intrinsic causal links of a large class of complex systems in the framework of the response theory in physics. We develop some theoretical ideas put forward by [1], and technically we use state-of-the-art ML techniques to build up models from data. We consider both linear stochastic and non-linear systems. Finally, we compute the asymptotic efficiency of the linear response based causal predictor in a case of large scale Markov process network of linear interactions.

Explainability is a critical tool in helping stakeholders understand robots. In particular, the ability for robots to explain why they have made a particular decision or behaved in a certain way is useful in this regard. Behaviour trees are a popular framework for controlling the decision-making of robots and other software systems, and thus a natural question to ask is whether or not a system driven by a behaviour tree is capable of answering "why" questions. While explainability for behaviour trees has seen some prior attention, no existing methods are capable of generating causal, counterfactual explanations which detail the reasons for robot decisions and behaviour. Therefore, in this work, we introduce a novel approach which automatically generates counterfactual explanations in response to contrastive "why" questions. Our method achieves this by first automatically building a causal model from the structure of the behaviour tree as well as domain knowledge about the state and individual behaviour tree nodes. The resultant causal model is then queried and searched to find a set of diverse counterfactual explanations. We demonstrate that our approach is able to correctly explain the behaviour of a wide range of behaviour tree structures and states. By being able to answer a wide range of causal queries, our approach represents a step towards more transparent, understandable and ultimately trustworthy robotic systems.