Recently, federated learning (FL) has emerged as a novel framework for distributed model training. In FL, the task publisher (TP) releases tasks, and local model owners (LMOs) use their local data to train models. Sometimes, FL suffers from the lack of training data, and thus workers are recruited for gathering data. To this end, this paper proposes an adaptive incentive mechanism from a service-oriented perspective, with the objective of maximizing the utilities of TP, LMOs and workers. Specifically, a Stackelberg game is theoretically established between the LMOs and TP, positioning TP as the leader and the LMOs as followers. An analytical Nash equilibrium solution is derived to maximize their utilities. The interaction between LMOs and workers is formulated by a multi-agent Markov decision process (MAMDP), with the optimal strategy identified via deep reinforcement learning (DRL). Additionally, an Adaptively Searching the Optimal Strategy Algorithm (ASOSA) is designed to stabilize the strategies of each participant and solve the coupling problems. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to validate the efficacy of the proposed method.

B. Observation History The core contribution of this work is a novel history encoder for processing historical observations, which integrates two key operations: depthwise separable convolution and multi-head attention. The background of these operations is briefly reviewed below. Depthwise separable convolution [33] is a streamlined variant of standard convolution that reduces both parameter count and computational cost. It decomposes the operation into two steps: (1) a depthwise convolution, which applies a single filter to each input channel, and (2) a pointwise convolution, which uses a 1 1 convolution to linearly combine the outputs of the depthwise stage. This factorization enables efficient extraction of spatial and cross-channel features while maintaining strong representational capacity. It has been widely adopted in lightweight neural architectures such as MobileNet [34] and is particularly well suited to real-time and resource-constrained applications. Multi-head attention [9] is a fundamental component of Transformer architectures, enabling the model to capture diverse patterns across different representation subspaces.

Several emerging post-Bayesian methods target a probability distribution for which an entropy-regularised variational objective is minimised. This increased flexibility introduces a computational challenge, as one loses access to an explicit unnormalised density for the target. To mitigate this difficulty, we introduce a novel measure of suboptimality called 'gradient discrepancy', and in particular a 'kernel gradient discrepancy' (KGD) that can be explicitly computed. In the standard Bayesian context, KGD coincides with the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), and we obtain a novel charasterisation of KSD as measuring the size of a variational gradient. Outside this familiar setting, KGD enables novel sampling algorithms to be developed and compared, even when unnormalised densities cannot be obtained. To illustrate this point several novel algorithms are proposed, including a natural generalisation of Stein variational gradient descent, with applications to mean-field neural networks and prediction-centric uncertainty quantification presented. On the theoretical side, our principal contribution is to establish sufficient conditions for desirable properties of KGD, such as continuity and convergence control.

Bayesian inference is widely used in many different fields to test hypotheses against observations. In most such applications, an assumption is made of precise input values to produce a precise output value. However, this is unrealistic for real-world applications. Often the best available information from subject matter experts (SMEs) in a given field is interval range estimates of the input probabilities involved in Bayes Theorem. This paper provides two key contributions to extend Bayes Theorem to an interval type-2 (IT2) version. First, we develop an IT2 version of Bayes Theorem that uses a novel and conservative method to avoid potential inconsistencies in the input IT2 MFs that otherwise might produce invalid output results. We then describe a novel and flexible algorithm for encoding SME-provided intervals into IT2 fuzzy membership functions (MFs), which we can use to specify the input probabilities in Bayes Theorem. Our algorithm generalizes and extends previous work on this problem that primarily addressed the encoding of intervals into word MFs for Computing with Words applications.

Modern neural networks (NNs) often achieve high predictive accuracy but are poorly calibrated, producing overconfident predictions even when wrong. This miscalibration poses serious challenges in applications where reliable uncertainty estimates are critical. In this work, we investigate how human perceptual uncertainty compares to uncertainty estimated by NNs. Using three vision benchmarks annotated with both human disagreement and crowdsourced confidence, we assess the correlation between model-predicted uncertainty and human-perceived uncertainty. Our results show that current methods only weakly align with human intuition, with correlations varying significantly across tasks and uncertainty metrics. Notably, we find that incorporating human-derived soft labels into the training process can improve calibration without compromising accuracy. These findings reveal a persistent gap between model and human uncertainty and highlight the potential of leveraging human insights to guide the development of more trustworthy AI systems.

We propose a method for inferring entropy production (EP) in high-dimensional stochastic systems, including many-body systems and non-Markovian systems with long memory. Standard techniques for estimating EP become intractable in such systems due to computational and statistical limitations. We infer trajectory-level EP and lower bounds on average EP by exploiting a nonequilibrium analogue of the Maximum Entropy principle, along with convex duality. Our approach uses only samples of trajectory observables, such as spatiotemporal correlations. It does not require reconstruction of high-dimensional probability distributions or rate matrices, nor impose any special assumptions such as discrete states or multipartite dynamics. In addition, it may be used to compute a hierarchical decomposition of EP, reflecting contributions from different interaction orders, and it has an intuitive physical interpretation as a "thermodynamic uncertainty relation." We demonstrate its numerical performance on a disordered nonequilibrium spin model with 1000 spins and a large neural spike-train dataset.

The increasing availability of personal data has enabled significant advances in fields such as machine learning, healthcare, and cybersecurity. However, this data abundance also raises serious privacy concerns, especially in light of powerful re-identification attacks and growing legal and ethical demands for responsible data use. Differential privacy (DP) has emerged as a principled, mathematically grounded framework for mitigating these risks. This review provides a comprehensive survey of DP, covering its theoretical foundations, practical mechanisms, and real-world applications. It explores key algorithmic tools and domain-specific challenges - particularly in privacy-preserving machine learning and synthetic data generation. The report also highlights usability issues and the need for improved communication and transparency in DP systems. Overall, the goal is to support informed adoption of DP by researchers and practitioners navigating the evolving landscape of data privacy.

We present a novel recursive Bayesian estimation framework using B-splines for continuous-time 6-DoF dynamic motion estimation. The state vector consists of a recurrent set of position control points and orientation control point increments, enabling efficient estimation via a modified iterated extended Kalman filter without involving error-state formulations. The resulting recursive spline estimator (RESPLE) is further leveraged to develop a versatile suite of direct LiDAR-based odometry solutions, supporting the integration of one or multiple LiDARs and an IMU. We conduct extensive real-world evaluations using public datasets and our own experiments, covering diverse sensor setups, platforms, and environments. Compared to existing systems, RESPLE achieves comparable or superior estimation accuracy and robustness, while attaining real-time efficiency. Our results and analysis demonstrate RESPLE's strength in handling highly dynamic motions and complex scenes within a lightweight and flexible design, showing strong potential as a universal framework for multi-sensor motion estimation. We release the source code and experimental datasets at https://github.com/ASIG-X/RESPLE .

The Bayesian paradigm offers principled tools for sequential decision-making under uncertainty, but its reliance on a probabilistic model for all parameters can hinder the incorporation of complex structural constraints. We introduce a minimalist Bayesian framework that places a prior only on the component of interest, such as the location of the optimum. Nuisance parameters are eliminated via profile likelihood, which naturally handles constraints. As a direct instantiation, we develop a MINimalist Thompson Sampling (MINTS) algorithm. Our framework accommodates structured problems, including continuum-armed Lipschitz bandits and dynamic pricing. It also provides a probabilistic lens on classical convex optimization algorithms such as the center of gravity and ellipsoid methods. We further analyze MINTS for multi-armed bandits and establish near-optimal regret guarantees.

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in probabilistic models. We focus on Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models and employ scalable Random Fourier Features-based Gaussian Processes to approximate predictive distributions efficiently. We derive a theoretical formulation for UQ, propose a Monte Carlo sampling-based estimation method, and conduct experiments to evaluate the impact of uncertainty estimation. Our results provide insights into the sources of predictive uncertainty and illustrate the effectiveness of our approach in quantifying the confidence in the predictions.